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md717
Early, several of these will change:

CHI + 6 @ PIT, o/u 30.5

CLE +12 @ CIN, o/u 43

HOU +6.5 @ TEN, o/u 44.5

IND -7.5 @ JAX, o/u 42

NE -3.5 @ BUF, o/u 37

OAK -2.5 @ NYJ, o/u 37

STL +7 @ MIN, o/u 45

TB +5.5 @ CAR, o/u 37

NYG -9 @ PHI, o/u 37

SF +15.5 @ SEA, o/u 43

WAS -3.5 @ AZ, o/u 40

BAL +14 @ DEN, o/u 40

KC +3 @ DAL, o/u 43.5

MIA +13.5 @ SD, o/u 44.5

DET +5.5 @ GB, o/u 36

NO +10.5 @ ATL, o/u 43.5

These are all tough. Some of the big ones are obviously over-inflated, not sure why.

I like KC+3 @ DAL . . . I think they finally got their offense back in sync. I'm thinking PIT-6 at home . . . as long as Rothlesberger is healthy. I've already said I like NYG -9. I am rethinking that a bit. Like it at 7, maybe not at 9. *Maybe* the D has enough pride to shut them down and *maybe* Eli gives up a few gifts.

Then again, those are just "first pass" observations.
md717
ESPN.com's "Scouts Inc." predicts each game (subscription required.) They come out w/ a complete game breakdown on Tuesdays, followed by a score prediction and further analysis on Friday evening/Saturday morning.

Last week they were 14-2 straight up, and 12-4 ATS. That's really a good ATS number, if you ask me. While I've been reading these reports for several weeks, this is the first week I thought to track the previous week. It doesn't look like there's anyplace on their site where they track their record themselves.

It'll be interesting to see what their score predictions are for some of these games, I'll have a hard time going against them w/ a previous week record like that. On the other hand, maybe that was a one week aberration.

PS -- they were a less impressive, but still winning 10-6 on the o/u.
md717
Ok -- here are my picks, ranked by confidence:


KC+3 @ DAL
NE-3.5 @ BUF
CIN-12.5 v. CLE
OAK-3 @ NYJ
IND-9.5 @ JAX
SEA-15.5 v. SF
SD-13.5 v. MIA
MIN-7 v. STL
NYG-9.5 @ PHI
GB-5.5 v. DET
TEN-6.5 v. HOU
AZ+3.5 v. WAS
TB+5.5 @ CAR
BAL+14.5 @ DEN
CHI+6.5 @ PIT
ATL-10.5 v. NO

I'll probably make light plays on the top 4, maybe an ultra-light combo or teaser for entertainment value.

Thoughts?
nephillymike
I got to take a look later tonite.

I'll chime in with a few thoughts then.

I've hit a little bump in the road, so my input ain't deliviering the cash like other's!!
nephillymike
I got to look further but i'm eying:

Cle + 12.5
Chi +6.5
NYG -9.5
NO +10.5

I doubt I'll bet all four.
nephillymike
Remove NO +10.5 and I'm going with the other three.

Chi - Roth banged up, Pit had trouble running. I think they'll keep it close enough

Cin - I'm banking on a post Pit hangover plus the closeness of the rivalry.

NYG -9.5 - two words swayed my opinion: Mike McMahon. I see a five sack game and seven other scurries by him for about 14 yds, and right there you got 12 plays of the 40 or so we'll prolly run. If nothing else, me betting against the Birds should ensure a real close game or even a Birds win.
md717
Wow . . . you have the balls to pull the trigger on NYG -9.5? I know I was strongly advocating for that shortly after the MNF Embarrassment, but . . . I just don't have the stones to put real $$ on it. Our D isn't done yet, and Little Manning has had trouble throwing to the wrong colored jerseys of late. Granted, we can't score, so . . . it probably is a payer, but I just can't do it.

I don't like that CHI/PIT game at all. Something's just messed up with that line. CHI on an 8 game streak and PIT losing 3 in a row? And PIT is favored by *almost* a TD?? WTF is wrong w/ this picture? Somebody knows something I don't, and until they tell me what it is, I ain't playing that game. From where I sit it looks like the bet to make, will probably end up like 17-13 PIT, and that'll pay, but . . . it just smells funny.

Disagree with you flat out on CIN. This team has attitude and is getting better every week. They want to prove they can run with the big dogs, and big dogs don't have letdowns against CLE at home. CIN wins big -- by almost DOUBLE that line, I predict. Charlie Frye on the road. That should pretty much tell you all you need to know.
nephillymike
Charlie Frye?

I missed that he was starting but now I see he is.

Forget about that one. Thanks for the heads up. If it's Dilfer, I bet that one. NOt Frye

I feel the same way about the outcome of the Pit game, 13-9 or 17-13 Pit win but a back door cover for me.

The Eagles? Add a short week to the obstacles here and it is a solid play. The lack of heart and effort I saw on the offensive side last week is damning, especially when you have so many other things to overcome. I just can't see it being close. I may have bet against the Eagles maybe four times in the last six years. It's something I always avoid, b/c of the character of the team. I just see that missing. The way those guys didn't run after the INT's spoke volumes. And if they pll it out and I lose a lunch or two, no biggie. Lord knows I lost many other bets with no offsetting benefit as an Iggs win would have.

NYG 27 PHI 10
md717
No problem on the CIN thing. That's what makes this fun -- talking about the picks ahead of time and possibly pointing something out that the other guy missed.

I think CIN has no trouble whatsoever covering that one.

I just heard on ESPN that Curtis Martin is officially inactive for today -- first time in a LONG time he's not starting, breaks a LONG streak, I can't remember how many games. He's also in jeopardy of losing the chance to be the first player to have 11 straight 1000 yard seasons. Or something like that. Gotta feel bad for the guy.

Anyway, that info would bump my "OAK -3" pick up a notch or two on the "confidence" list above.

Heard that Faulk is banged up for NE, along with one of their tight ends, forget his name.

So I'd probably bump the OAK up to #2, and move the rest of the picks down. But it's too late, my 1pm bets are made, and a couple of 4pm . . . although I reserve the right to make a few more once I see how the 1pm games are faring.

So here's officially what I've got . . . (some are combos/parlays, a bought points on a couple, etc.)

NE-3; OAK-3; CIN/CLE over 43; KC+3 -- four-way parlay (yeah, I know. Can't help it.)

CIN/CLE over 43; CLE -12.5 -- 2 way parlay.

NE +5.5; IND +1; CIN-3 -- 3-way 10-pt teaser.

I got $1 each on the first two, $2 on the 3rd. ;-) The third one is kindof a "CYA" bet, as the payout there basically just covers the losses on the first two should things go horribly wrong this afternoon. I see the chances of losing that 3rd one at slim and none. If I win them all by some miracle, I net $13.66

With the new info I'm considering another $1 on OAK as a single . . . assuming the line hasn't gone up.

md717
To say, "That didn't go well" would be kindof an understatement, eh?

Sorry for talkin' you out of a winner w/ CLE and the points.

As for PHI . . . figures they can't even LOSE by what you need them to lose by, doesn't it?
Eyrie
QUOTE (md717 @ Dec 12 2005, 01:28 AM)
As for PHI . . . figures they can't even LOSE by what you need them to lose by, doesn't it?

My fault - took the Giants to cover on Wagerline mad.gif
nephillymike
QUOTE (md717 @ Dec 11 2005, 08:28 PM)
To say, "That didn't go well" would be kindof an understatement, eh?

Sorry for talkin' you out of a winner w/ CLE and the points.

As for PHI . . . figures they can't even LOSE by what you need them to lose by, doesn't it?

Another bad week.

Looking at 11-15 on the year now.

Not impressive at all. Need to mount a comeback to get to breakeven.

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