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nephillymike
100% make the playoffs

46% get to the Super Bowl

22% win the Super Bowl.

So assuming a 1st round bye, the straight odds are a 25% chance of going to the SB and a 12.5% chance of winning. We're close to doubling the straight odds.

I'll take it.
Joegrane
The thing that keeps me from getting so excited is that the Eagles probably have only beaten one future playoff team--Carolina. The only other likely playoff team they've played is KC.

The Skins are probably above average but not playoff-caliber.

In contrast Pittsburgh beat the Vikes, and won at KC and Detroit.

The Pats beat the Falcons and @ NO but lost to KC and Carolina.

The Vikes beat the Saints and Rams and split with Detroit.

The Saints beat Carolina and Detroit but lost to Vikes and Pats.

Are the Eagles an elite team like the Steelers or a strong playoff team like the Saints that can beat wild card teams?

The Eagles won't play any of the other seemingly elite teams in the regular season.

I'm assuming the Rams are not one of them after being handled by the Vikes.

Seattle is too banged up and currently loosing late to the resurgent Falcons. The Eagles might actually be slight favorites in that game.

OAK is below average.

Chicago is not a bad team. They've beaten the Steelers, Carolina and Ravens. Four of their losses were to the Vikes, Falcons, Lions and Pack w/ Rodgers.

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Nov 20 2017, 10:12 PM) *
100% make the playoffs

46% get to the Super Bowl

22% win the Super Bowl.

So assuming a 1st round bye, the straight odds are a 25% chance of going to the SB and a 12.5% chance of winning. We're close to doubling the straight odds.

I'll take it.

The Franchise
The Redskins aren't a bad team. The reason they aren't 'playoff caliber' is because we've beaten they azz twice. wink.gif

We went into Carolina and handled them, which was my turning point in believing we were contenders. Since then we've dropped 50 points on the former #1 defense, and destroyed Dallas on the road. The Saints are volatile and I think we match up well with them, and the Vikes don't worry me.
Rick
I understand why we're all a bit skeptical, however, talking about the teams they've beaten makes no sense. First of all, you can only beat--or lose to--the teams you play. They've beaten the teams they're supposed to beat. Lately, they've blow out the teams they're supposed to beat. They haven't had a chance to beat the other playoff teams in the NFC. You can't hold that against them.

Do I think they're going to the SB? I don't know. But, if they get into the playoffs, they've got as good a chance as anyone. They are the team to beat right now. That could all change for sure but they are as good as their record says they are right now.
Joegrane
Rick: "talking about the teams they've beaten makes no sense. "

Why not? My point is that I don't know how good the Eagles are since they've not played any elite teams. They might just be as good as the Saints--able to run up the score on bad teams and able to beat Wild Card teams, but who will fail against elite teams. Until the Eagles beat an elite team, I'll wonder. Of course that won't be until the playoffs since there apparently aren't any on the schedule after the Vikes dismantled the Rams.

This type of talk is too much.

"The NFL has no answer for the Eagles right now. They have scored 30 or more points in each of their past four games. There are three teams -- the Browns, Bears and Giants -- that haven't scored 30 in a game since the 2015 season. The Eagles have done it in two of their past four halves."
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2149484...layers-get-paid

But when you look at the past four games, it is not so impressive that the Eagles put up 30 against them.

The Skins have given up roughly 30 pts to all of the playoff teams they've faced.

SanFran--enough said.

Denver's D isn't as good as everyone thought. Around the Eagles game they gave up 29 to the Chiefs and 41 to the Pats.

Dallas has given up around 30 pts to all of the playoff teams they've played, Skins too.


QUOTE (Rick @ Nov 21 2017, 05:51 AM) *
I understand why we're all a bit skeptical, however, talking about the teams they've beaten makes no sense. First of all, you can only beat--or lose to--the teams you play. They've beaten the teams they're supposed to beat. Lately, they've blow out the teams they're supposed to beat. They haven't had a chance to beat the other playoff teams in the NFC. You can't hold that against them.

Do I think they're going to the SB? I don't know. But, if they get into the playoffs, they've got as good a chance as anyone. They are the team to beat right now. That could all change for sure but they are as good as their record says they are right now.
Rick
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Nov 21 2017, 05:26 PM) *
Rick: "talking about the teams they've beaten makes no sense. "

Why not? My point is that I don't know how good the Eagles are since they've not played any elite teams. They might just be as good as the Saints--able to run up the score on bad teams and able to beat Wild Card teams, but who will fail against elite teams. Until the Eagles beat an elite team, I'll wonder. Of course that won't be until the playoffs since there apparently aren't any on the schedule after the Vikes dismantled the Rams.

This type of talk is too much.

"The NFL has no answer for the Eagles right now. They have scored 30 or more points in each of their past four games. There are three teams -- the Browns, Bears and Giants -- that haven't scored 30 in a game since the 2015 season. The Eagles have done it in two of their past four halves."
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2149484...layers-get-paid

But when you look at the past four games, it is not so impressive that the Eagles put up 30 against them.

The Skins have given up roughly 30 pts to all of the playoff teams they've faced.

SanFran--enough said.

Denver's D isn't as good as everyone thought. Around the Eagles game they gave up 29 to the Chiefs and 41 to the Pats.

Dallas has given up around 30 pts to all of the playoff teams they've played, Skins too.

My point is, you--along with many others--continue to penalize the Eagles for not doing something they've not had a chance to do--beat these, so called," elite teams. And just saying it like that makes no sense either as the Eagles are, in fact, an elite team this season. They have beaten the teams they're supposed to beat. They've blown out the teams they're supposed to beat lately. They were within 1 score of KC when they played them--when KC was playing well and the Eagles were just learning about themselves.

Denver's defense was the top-ranked defense going into the game against the Eagles. The Eagles exposed them for sure. But it was the EAGLES who did that. Why would you not give them some credit for that?

So, because the Cowboys have given up 30+ points to all of the playoff-caliber teams they've played, you're going to penalize them for doing what they're supposed to do!!??

It's too early to crown them as SB champs for sure but come on, you--and others--make it seam like they're a bunch of scrubs. They are not. There isn't a team in the NFL this season the Eagles don't have a chance to beat. To say otherwise is just ridiculous.

I find it hard to understand why some people won't give them credit. Don't get me wrong, I'm worried about the usual dagger to the heart the Eagles love to give us fans but you can't say they're not as good as people think they are. They are absolutely as good as they look right now. Will that change? Possibly. But, for now, they are the cream of the crop in the NFL.
Joegrane
The scores in Denver's games suggest to me that they were never an elite defense. Their numbers looked better than they should have because their offense did not put up points. Opposition did not have to score much against them. Notice that KC put up 29 pts against them the week before the Eagles. Putting up 51 against even an average D with an anemic offense is still impressive, but it does not prove the Eagles are one of the top few teams in the NFL.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/den/denver-broncos

Rick, you ignored what I actually wrote! "They might just be as good as the Saints--able to run up the score on bad teams and able to beat Wild Card teams, but who will fail against elite teams. Until the Eagles beat an elite team, I'll wonder. "

That is far different than what you wrote, "you--and others--make it seam like they're a bunch of scrubs."

Actually you could say the Eagles are a bunch of scrubs:

kicker from the PS,
RBs who were dumped from his former team or UDFA or taken off the street
7th round CB, another CB who looked like he'd get cut after preseason
Slot WR who many thought deserved to be cut
Right across the O Line you could say each one has outperformed expectations: Can Johnson perform without supplements? Will Brooks be the next Shaun Andrews? People wanted Kelce traded. Wiz was the #3 OG. Big V was a 5th rounder.
LB who people have wanted to trade for two years, another who could be in jail due to excessive stupidity.
etc

However that group of scrubs is playing really well together and coached up by an admirable staff.

QUOTE (Rick @ Nov 21 2017, 04:47 PM) *
My point is, you--along with many others--continue to penalize the Eagles for not doing something they've not had a chance to do--beat these, so called," elite teams. And just saying it like that makes no sense either as the Eagles are, in fact, an elite team this season. They have beaten the teams they're supposed to beat. They've blown out the teams they're supposed to beat lately. They were within 1 score of KC when they played them--when KC was playing well and the Eagles were just learning about themselves.

Denver's defense was the top-ranked defense going into the game against the Eagles. The Eagles exposed them for sure. But it was the EAGLES who did that. Why would you not give them some credit for that?

So, because the Cowboys have given up 30+ points to all of the playoff-caliber teams they've played, you're going to penalize them for doing what they're supposed to do!!??

It's too early to crown them as SB champs for sure but come on, you--and others--make it seam like they're a bunch of scrubs. They are not. There isn't a team in the NFL this season the Eagles don't have a chance to beat. To say otherwise is just ridiculous.

I find it hard to understand why some people won't give them credit. Don't get me wrong, I'm worried about the usual dagger to the heart the Eagles love to give us fans but you can't say they're not as good as people think they are. They are absolutely as good as they look right now. Will that change? Possibly. But, for now, they are the cream of the crop in the NFL.

Zero
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Nov 21 2017, 09:25 PM) *
"They might just be as good as the Saints--able to run up the score on bad teams and able to beat Wild Card teams, but who will fail against elite teams. Until the Eagles beat an elite team, I'll wonder. "

Who are the elite teams they need to beat to convince you?
The Franchise
What elite teams have the Saints beat?
Zero
QUOTE (The Franchise @ Nov 21 2017, 09:56 PM) *
What elite teams have the Saints beat?

Maybe we should start with a list of the elite teams.
The Franchise
QUOTE (Zero @ Nov 21 2017, 09:18 PM) *
Maybe we should start with a list of the elite teams.


1. Eagles (lost to Chiefs)

2. Patriots (lost to Panthers and Chiefs, beat Saints)

3. Steelers (beat Vikings and Chiefs, lost to Jags)

4. Saints (lost to Patriots and Vikings, only remotely impressive win was at Carolina)

5. Vikings (beat Rams and Saints, lost to Steelers)

Those are the 8-2 teams (oh, and one team that's 9-1). The Jags, Rams, and Panthers are all 7-3. There's also no reason to include a Reid team in a discussion of Super Bowl contenders, so here we are.

It seems to me that us and the Pats are the elite teams in each conference, and the rest of the league should be asking themselves 'have we beaten the Eagles or Pats yet?'

There, discussion over.
Joegrane
Teams with among the best records and have beaten other strong playoff teams.

Pittsburgh: beat the Vikes, and won at KC and Detroit. (lost to Jags?)

The Vikes: beat the Saints and Rams and split with Detroit. I know what everyone says about their QB but they are getting it done.

The Pats: beat the Falcons and @ NO but lost to KC and Carolina.


QUOTE (Zero @ Nov 21 2017, 08:50 PM) *
Who are the elite teams they need to beat to convince you?

Joegrane
The Saints have not beaten any "elite teams"--8-1 teams that have beaten other strong playoff teams.

That is why I wrote that maybe the Eagles are only as good as the Saints have shown, or maybe the Eagles are an elite team, but just haven't had the opportunity to prove it yet.

QUOTE (Zero @ Nov 21 2017, 09:18 PM) *
Maybe we should start with a list of the elite teams.

Rick
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Nov 22 2017, 12:54 AM) *
Teams with among the best records and have beaten other strong playoff teams.

Pittsburgh: beat the Vikes, and won at KC and Detroit. (lost to Jags?)

The Vikes: beat the Saints and Rams and split with Detroit. I know what everyone says about their QB but they are getting it done.

The Pats: beat the Falcons and @ NO but lost to KC and Carolina.

Right, so the Eagles are supposed to beat the teams that aren't on their schedule....

This is my point. Your argument is ridiculous. If they had been barely beating all of these non-elite teams, then you'd have something. But to scoff at putting up 51 on the Broncos--who, regardless of what we know now were the #1 ranked defense in the NFL at the time--is beyond ridiculous. It was n amazing feat no matter how you look at it. 51 on anyone is crazy but 51 on a defense that good--whether they are as good as people thought or not makes no difference, they're still better than most defenses in the league--is pretty amazing.

Throw in beating the snot out of Dallas...in Dallas... Sure, Dallas can make the excuse they're depleted but so have the Eagles for most of the season. Hell, they put up 30 WITHOUT A KICKER! This is a divisional game, which are typically tightly-played no matter the seasonal records and skill level. But the Eagles put up 30 in a half! But sure, you're right, they're just not as good as those other elite teams you speak of...

Following that up with 30+ points in subsequent weeks shows their offense is for real.

Whether you like it or not, the Eagles--right now--are the best team in the NFL by any measure. Will that hold up? Who knows? But trying to pooh pooh what they've done just makes no sense.
Joegrane
I saw a stat today about teams in the past that have been 10-1. FEWER than HALF of them made it to the Super Bowl. Strange things can happen, especially if you fumble 4 times.

Btw, was that not the weirdest set of fumbles you have ever seen? Weren't they all at the end of big plays by the Eagles!?

Apparently the Eagles won't play one of the top few "elite" teams in the NFL this year and will have played few games against division winners. However after 11 weeks you can start to look back and compare performances against common opponents.

The Bears scored in double digits in all but one game--7pts @ the Bucs early in the season.

The Bears scored 23pts in an early season win over the Steelers, 17pts in a loss to the Vikes, 12 pts in a loss @ the Saints a few weeks ago and 24pts in a competitive loss to the Lions last week.

The Bears ran for over 100 yards vs the Vikes in week 5. I assume that was with the Rookie QB playing for Chicago.

The Bears rank #6 in rushing yards per attempt and #5 in yards per game.

The 31pts given up by the Bears' D is about what I would expect based on their past performances, especially in light of their anemic offensive performance vs the Eagles.

It continues to seem that the Eagles are one of the elite teams; however, matchups are so important. For example, I'd feel more comfortable in the playoffs going up against a team that relies heavily on the run and that does not have a running QB. I'd be nervous going up against a team that has a dynamic passing game, especially a team that has lots of speed at WR.

NE and NO lead the NFL in passing yds per game. Seattle is #4 and the Rams are #9.

If the Eagles are an elite team, they should win at Seattle and the game at the Rams should be very competitive.


QUOTE (Joegrane @ Nov 20 2017, 11:42 PM) *
The thing that keeps me from getting so excited is that the Eagles probably have only beaten one future playoff team--Carolina. The only other likely playoff team they've played is KC.

The Skins are probably above average but not playoff-caliber.

In contrast Pittsburgh beat the Vikes, and won at KC and Detroit.

The Pats beat the Falcons and @ NO but lost to KC and Carolina.

The Vikes beat the Saints and Rams and split with Detroit.

The Saints beat Carolina and Detroit but lost to Vikes and Pats.

Are the Eagles an elite team like the Steelers or a strong playoff team like the Saints that can beat wild card teams?

The Eagles won't play any of the other seemingly elite teams in the regular season.

I'm assuming the Rams are not one of them after being handled by the Vikes.

Seattle is too banged up and currently loosing late to the resurgent Falcons. The Eagles might actually be slight favorites in that game.

OAK is below average.

Chicago is not a bad team. They've beaten the Steelers, Carolina and Ravens. Four of their losses were to the Vikes, Falcons, Lions and Pack w/ Rodgers.

Zero
I get being cautiously objective, but it seems you're not using the eye test. The team isn't just winning by a big play here, a turnover there or a ST score someplace else. They're smothering teams. That doesn't mean they'll do that to every team or that they won't lose more games, but it does mean they're for real. They're taking away the other team's strengths and adjusting their own strength to the opposition. Name the other teams that can do that.
Zero
The Eagles not only have the best record in the league, they lead the league in scoring, they're third in points allowed, and first in net points. The argument of strength of schedule is valid, the Eagles schedule ranks 25th now but was 10th in March. This is a physical team, and I have to wonder how their play has affected the next game of their opponents.

We all know the season changes from week to week. Teams lose players, coaches lose teams and teams build momentum. The Eagles had a tough schedule to start the season and have a tough three game road schedule ahead of them. It's the time where we see how good the team really is.
make_it_rain
The Vikings have two quality wins, against the Saints in the beginning of the year and vs. the Rams.

The Rams have beaten the Saints.

The Saints have beaten the Panthers.

Eagles beat the Panthers in CAR and overcame a historical penalty differential on the road. Redskins are under .500 because of two losses to the Eagles and also beat the Rams on the road. They're not world beaters but they aren't terrible.

Eagles have had a soft schedule to date, but have just been throttling the bad teams and really haven't fallen into a trap game like other teams or Eagles teams of the past.

Soft schedule or not, the next three games will determine a lot about the team and the season. If they can at least get a split against Seattle / LAR they'll be in great shape, as well as putting to bed most of the "they haven't played anyone" claims.
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