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md717
Dunno . . .

I think I like TB -3.5 @ NO. I think the line is low b/c TB lost @ SF and @ NYJ. But NO isn't really "at home" and shouldn't get consideration as such. I don't think beating the Jets by 2 should be a big confidence builder for anybody. Then again TB LOST to the Jets in week 5 by 2 pts.

There's WAS - 3 vs. STL -- I don't think that that rookie QB can pull a rabbit out of his hat two weeks in a row, especially against a "real" defense not from Houston.

I like MIN-2.5 @ DET . . . DET in disarray with the firing of their coach, and they're just not that great a team to start with. MIN has been playing pretty well the last few weeks -- won 4 straight, actually. DET hasn't beaten MIN since '01, MIN swept them in '02, '03, '04, and now '05?? DET has beaten 4 teams this year - CLE, BAL, AZ, and GB -- a "who's who" of the suckiest teams in the league. Granted, the only team w/ a winning record that MIN has beaten is NYG. Hmmmm.

Hate to say it, but SEA -4 looks like a pure gift. Betting against the Birds could help soothe the loss a bit. I've never done it, but . . . tempted in this case.

OAK +11.5 vs. SD? Man . . . that's a lot of points. OAK sucks but, maybe they can hang to cover that many points?

IND -15 vs. TEN . . . again, a lot of points. But IND's average winning margin has been about 15 points, I haven't done the math . . . but it's close. TEN sucks, young defense, in the dome . . . this one is tempting.

HOU +8 @ BAL? Nah, don't think I can take HOU under any circumstances, but . . . BAL sucks and is about to just lay down and die. HOU just about beat STL last week, that OT loss had to hurt. Will it motivate them? Or kill them? Too hard to tell.

GB +7 vs. CHI? Well . . . CHI isn't good at scoring points, and they're great at keeping the opponent from scoring. 10-7 CHI or 13-7 CHI are both winners at +7 . . . tempting.

What are you seeing, anything?

eugol55
NYJ +10 v NE. I know, I know, the Jets are terrible. But NE just doesn't blow teams out. They haven't won a game by 10+ pts since they beat OAK 30-20 week 1.

There you go, Eugol's luke-warm lock for the week. biggrin.gif
md717
Yabutt . . . the only really BAD teams they've played were OAK (whom they did beat by exactly 10 in week 1,) NO, and MIA -- both of whom they beat by 7. Dunno, I don't like it. If it goes to 10.5, maybe.
eugol55
Trust me, have I ever steered you wrong? wink.gif
md717
QUOTE (eugol55 @ Dec 2 2005, 03:03 PM)
Trust me, have I ever steered you wrong? wink.gif

Right. I can't count that high!

I forgot one, in my list above -- DEN-1 @ KC.

Denver is by FAR the better team, I don't think playing at Arrowhead is that big of a handicap. DEN beat KC 30-10 in DEN on MNF as I recall . . . week 3 or 4? Playing at Arrowhead (and w/o Priest this time) ain't gonna get KC 20 extra points.

KC beat . . . NYJ, OAK(x2), WAS, MIA, HOU, and NE. Most impressive? WAS and NE, I guess. Lost to DEN, SD, BUF, PHI.

DEN beat . . . SD, KC, JAX, WAS, NE, PHI, OAK, NYJ, DAL. Lost to MIA (ooops) and NYG.
nephillymike
Hey MD, I must have missed this post yesterday. Sorry!

Check this site out. A plethora of info all condensed in one page!! Click on any game and voila!

http://www.covers.com/sports/nfl/nfl_main.aspx


Here's what I've whittled it down to:

High Picks:

Cin +3 @ Pit. Pit with one day less to prepare, plus I think Cincy is the better team and Pit's run offense has struggled lately.

Stl +3 vs. Was

This home dog is barking. Ya gotta love the Irish dude from Harvard! I hear what you're saying about pulling out a trick two weeks in a row, but I think these are close to even teams and the line is to big.

Slight Picks

Cle +3 vs. Jax

Jax no Leftwich, no Taylor, no warm weather, no cover to a Browns team that has been running it pretty well and a re slightly better than their record.

NYG -3 vs. Dal

NYG are the better team (on paper) and have the divisional revenge factor. I'm a little hesitant about this one since Dal had three extra days to prepare.

Be aware!! These lines are all +/- 3. A half point either why may make me shy.

On another matter, me and my cousin are the only two left in a suicide pool. (small one started with 24 people). He's got Min I got Balt !! Worth $40 more + bragging rights!!



md717
Yeah, I've used that site and like it. Especially if you click on the "Discussion" portion of each game and read the hard-core guys arguing with each other. Good stuff.

I can't go w/ either of your "high" picks. To me those spreads are just too close. If it was STL+3.5 or CLE + 3.5, I'd be tempted.

Here are my "confidence" picks of the week:

JAX -3 -- JAX needs this win, they play IND next week and they have no shot of winning the division, so they gotta keep their WC chances as good as possible. CLE may play a backup QB too -- Frye, I think his name is? It's 30 degrees in CLE, not 15 . . . big difference. Thirty isn't that big a deal when you're active. That Taylor isn't playing gives me pause . . . he was listed as "probable" on the injury report, but thanks for the heads up, guess they just decided a day or so ago not to play him. I think JAX' D is too much for CLE, Taylor or no Taylor.

MIN -2.5 -- see first post in the thread.

TB -3.5 -- NO is done. No fight left in the dog, even though they managed to squeak past the Jets last week.

IND -15.5 -- TEN's line can't protect McNair, I'll be surprised if McNair makes it through the game. IND beat TEN 31-10 in TEN back in October. IND can clinch the division w/ a win today, I don't see them letting up yet.

Good luck on your suicide pool!



nephillymike
Well,

The NYG went up to 3-1/2 so I backed off that one.

I got Cle +3, Cin +3 and Stl +3.

It's snowing in Cleveland!!

Good luck MD!
md717
I think somebody forgot to tell JAX it was cold out. cool.gif

I think I'm 4-0 on my "confidence picks"

Hey Barkeep -- a round of Guinness for EVERYBODY!!

Good luck on the STL+3 . . . I'd have taken DEN -1 (and what do you know, when the 1pm game started going my way, I DID take DEN -1. biggrin.gif )

You could go 2-1, not too shabby!

(btw, I parlayed those 4 confidence picks. Laughing ALL the way to the bank!)
md717
BTW -- congrats on BAL pulling it out at the last second -- looks like you and your cousin both live another week.
nephillymike
You parlayed them?

Two two team parlays or one four team parlay?

What's that pay on $100??

That's some good betting there MD!!

Congrats!
md717
One 4-team parlay and one 4-team teaser. Not to mention a straight-up on CIN to win outright.

It's been a good day, Mikey. A very good day.
md717
A 4-team parlay pays about 12-1. A 4-team 6-point teaser pays 3-1. A bet on CIN to win straight up pays 1.125 to 1.

I bet a dollar on each. cool.gif
nephillymike
$16.13 !! wink.gif

A very good day indeed.

Quit while you're ahead!!

Hopefully Red doesn't hear about this windfall, or you'll have to pay the wives tax which is at least 50%!!
md717
Red who?
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