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Rick
Was originally supposed to go to the game on Sunday but everyone whom I was supposed to go with bailed. So I figured we'd watch it at my house on Sunday Ticket, however, this lady called Irma may have other plans.

Guess I'll have to listen to SiriusXM Streaming if I lose the feed.

Thankfully, we're in NE FL although it's still looking like we'll get quite a bit of rain and 60mph winds--this is as of right now, this stuff changes QUICKLY.
Dreagon
It might not hurt to visit somebody inland for a day or two. That's a Cat5 storm, and path predictions aren't an exact science.
mcnabbulous
Stay safe
nephillymike
Stay safe Rick.

I hope it isn't what they're saying and you get to enjoy the game.
Rick
Thanks. Hopefully, it'll go out to sea but the latest have it coming right up the state. A slight jog either way will make a huge impact on where it goes. For me personally, I'm really hoping it doesn't pull another Mathew and run up the coast--this had never happened before and here we are a year later looking at the potential for it to happen again.

I'm more worried about the people in South FL, they're going to get hit HARD if this thing doesn't jog a little. Although, the strange part is, if it jogs to the West a bit, we'll get more wind than we would if it jogs to the East. These storms are strange things.

Right now, it's looking like Sunday may be alright unless this thing speeds up. So the game should be ok. Monday, OTOH, could be pandemonium throughout the state.

I bought a generator last year before Mathew. Lost power for a bit and had to use it. First time I've needed a generator in my (then) 47 years on this planet. Will I need it again a year later?

We're about 5 miles from the ocean here. My house is in a good zone in that we're about 25ish feet above sea level. Doesn't sound like much but, most of the area is at about sea level. We're not in a bad evacuation zone. However, if they tell me to get out, I'm out. No questions asked.

We had 100 year+ rain with Mathew and my neighborhood didn't flood other than a spot that always floods briefly in a good thunderstorm. So, unless Irma pulls a Harvey and grinds away and drops 50" of rain, we should be ok here.

We may lose power though as the winds are still expected to be 60mph with 100mph guest on Monday at the moment. This could change (for the better or the worse depending on whether Irma jogs one way or another.

In short, we're preparing for the worst and hoping for the best. I don't even want to think about what this thing is like down in the islands at the moment. 185mph winds with nowhere to hide.

Thanks and I'll keep everyone posted. An Eagles' win will go a long way to making my day brighter on Monday. smile.gif
Zero
Stay safe, Rick. Prayers for everyone who falls in the path of these storms. A friend's daughter was just married and is honeymooning in Antigua. Needless to say he's not feeling real good right now.
Rick
QUOTE (Zero @ Sep 6 2017, 06:32 AM) *
Stay safe, Rick. Prayers for everyone who falls in the path of these storms. A friend's daughter was just married and is honeymooning in Antigua. Needless to say he's not feeling real good right now.

Hope she's alright!

We were just in Saint Martin about a month ago. Saw photos and read about them, they got HAMMERED. I mean REALLY hammered. In their words, "almost destroyed". On Barbuda 90% of buildings are destroyed. This storm is no joke.

So far, for us, it's been trending more to the East. South FL looks like it may take a glancing direct hit, good for FL but the states to the North (GA, SC, NC) are going to take a hard hit if that happens. Somebody is getting hit with this thing here in the US and it's not going to be good.

We're as ready as we can be--well, I've got to fill some propane tanks for the grill but I'm not empty now--with the generator, water, etc. We have friends who live in Evac zone A (first to go) and they'll do a mandatory evac in A (and probably cool.gif if this doesn't move more to the East. We're in evac zone C and it would take (basically) a direct hit (or a Harvey churning over top of us) and we won't get either of those scenarios so we'll probably not be asked to leave (we weren't last year for Mathew). So we'll have a house full of people most-likely.

We had a house full of people for Mathew last year. We had a lot of food, watched the news and waited for the power to go out--it did for about 12 hours. We'll likely do the same, with the exception of watching the Eagles game. smile.gif
Zero
I also have very close friends in Cape Coral who have evacuated. This is the first time ever, he's a stubborn, macho type who thinks he can stand up to almost anything ... almost. This looks like it could be a tough year for storms.
Rick
QUOTE (Zero @ Sep 7 2017, 06:51 AM) *
I also have very close friends in Cape Coral who have evacuated. This is the first time ever, he's a stubborn, macho type who thinks he can stand up to almost anything ... almost. This looks like it could be a tough year for storms.

There were people who didn't evac last year. It's just a stupid way of thinking. If you stay, the BEST case scenario is nothing happens. However, if the WORSTS case scenario hits, you're looking at rising waters--what kills most people in these storms--and there's absolutely NOTHING you can do about that.
Pila
Without getting too much into what I do, some of what I freelance in is risk modeling for an international insurance carrier.

Their risk burden in the SE FL coastline is not ideal. Projections are not going well.
Rick
QUOTE (Pila @ Sep 7 2017, 02:26 PM) *
Without getting too much into what I do, some of what I freelance in is risk modeling for an international insurance carrier.

Their risk burden in the SE FL coastline is not ideal. Projections are not going well.

I can imagine. Certainly hasn't been looking good this whole week.
Pila
I just realized that perhaps that may have come off a bit insensitive to the real and serious threat Irma poses to human life. My point was to emphasize the devastation expected is unprecedented. The concern for human life promises to be the only real concern in the immediate weeks subsequent to the storm according to most models I've seen. To paraphrase the current great communicator with very good words in his arsenal, "It's not good. Believe me."
Zero
QUOTE (Pila @ Sep 7 2017, 03:57 PM) *
I just realized that perhaps that may have come off a bit insensitive to the real and serious threat Irma poses to human life. My point was to emphasize the devastation expected is unprecedented. The concern for human life promises to be the only real concern in the immediate weeks subsequent to the storm according to most models I've seen. To paraphrase the current great communicator with very good words in his arsenal, "It's not good. Believe me."

Fake quote, should be: "It's not good. Believe me. Believe me. Not good."
Pila
I did say I was paraphrasing you son of a b**** Lol .
nephillymike
QUOTE (Pila @ Sep 7 2017, 01:26 PM) *
Without getting too much into what I do, some of what I freelance in is risk modeling for an international insurance carrier.

Their risk burden in the SE FL coastline is not ideal. Projections are not going well.

Actuary?
nephillymike
My son's good friend just got an email to report to Florida. He's in the National guard.

He's 21 and had a big party planned at his house for Sun. He went from hanging out with friends for the opener to being in the thick of it.

Good luck to all.
Pila
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 8 2017, 01:15 AM) *
Actuary?

Jesus fucking Zeus, I'd rather gouge my own eyes out than ever become an actuary. Only more mindnumbing profession would be accounting. Drowning sounds like a better pastime.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Pila @ Sep 7 2017, 07:39 PM) *
Jesus fucking Zeus, I'd rather gouge my own eyes out than ever become an actuary. Only more mindnumbing profession would be accounting. Drowning sounds like a better pastime.

So how long have you been an actuary?

Nice dig on accountants.

However actuaries hang around accountants for a good time!
Pila
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 8 2017, 01:49 AM) *
However actuaries hang around accountants for a good time!

I believe it.
Eyrie
I see the latest projection for Irma is that Florida is right in its path, so fingers crossed for Rick and everyone else affected.

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 8 2017, 01:49 AM) *
So how long have you been an actuary?

Nice dig on accountants.

However actuaries hang around accountants for a good time!

Pila's just jealous of the exciting lives we have biggrin.gif
Pila
QUOTE (Eyrie @ Sep 8 2017, 09:33 PM) *
Pila's just jealous of the exciting lives we have biggrin.gif

Undoubtedly! I've recently seen a study that skin cancer has essentially been eradicated among accountants!
Rick
Good news for us, track is moving more West so we may not get it as bad although still hurricane force winds and gusts upwards of 110 (was supposed to be 140 as of this morning). However, bad for West Coast of FL. This storm is a monster, no matter where it hits it will be bad...really BAD.
Pila
QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 9 2017, 01:52 AM) *
Good news for us, track is moving more West so we may not get it as bad although still hurricane force winds and gusts upwards of 110 (was supposed to be 140 as of this morning). However, bad for West Coast of FL. This storm is a monster, no matter where it hits it will be bad...really BAD.

Cuba is fucked. FL's Southern tip is in similar plight.

Out of all shitty scenarios its better that the storm crawl the Western coast rather than the East Coast where it's wind bands sling shot over land rather than water, making tide surge less of a concern.
Rick
QUOTE (Pila @ Sep 8 2017, 09:15 PM) *
Cuba is fucked. FL's Southern tip is in similar plight.

Out of all shitty scenarios its better that the storm crawl the Western coast rather than the East Coast where it's wind bands sling shot over land rather than water, making tide surge less of a concern.

Yeah, mixed feelings here. Relieved we won't get it nearly as bad--now were predicted to have sustained winds just below hurricane strength and gusts up to 75ish that's down from Thursday where we were looking at like 79 with gusts to 140! However, the West Coast of FL is going to get crushed. The Keys will be under water for quite some time. Glad to see the idiots who were saying they planned to stay as of yesterday are finally getting the message to get the fuck out. Basically, the highest point is about 12 feet above sea level down there (might be a couple of bumps a little higher. They're looking at a storm surge of anywhere from 10 to 20 feet depending on whom you listen to and how strong Irma gets later today. So, basically, they'd be at sea level during the storm (at best) and under waves of 15-20 feet or higher. Kinda like standing in the middle of the ocean as the hurricane passes by because, well, that's what they'd be doing.

Anyway, glad to see so many people leaving. Problem is, this had been predicted to be an East Cost/Central FL thing until yesterday. Many of the people in the West didn't leave and many are saying they don't plan to. Just stupid if you're in an A or B flood zone.
mcnabbulous
Sadly the option to leave isn't available to all. It's often not a matter of stupidity.
The Franchise
QUOTE (Pila @ Sep 7 2017, 01:26 PM) *
Without getting too much into what I do, some of what I freelance in is risk modeling for an international insurance carrier.

Their risk burden in the SE FL coastline is not ideal. Projections are not going well.


I read an article where the amount of flood insurance policies purchased in Florida danger zones have dropped by 15% in recent years. Talk about tempting the gods.
Rick
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 9 2017, 10:34 AM) *
Sadly the option to leave isn't available to all. It's often not a matter of stupidity.

Actually, the option is very much there for everyone. The state will come evacuate you. Also, I'm talking about the Keys and Naples--two areas that area NOT poor at all.

So yes, it is stupid.
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