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nephillymike
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-i...rder_by=year_id

I made a statement that my gut was telling me that more times than not, the team that trades the first pick of the NBA draft for the #3 and a future #2-#5 wins that trade more than not. I was thinking maybe 60-65% of the time.

Well I did a little research on the matter, using the ten years from 2005-2014 as the sample size. (See pro basketball reference above) The thinking was that I wanted to do only ten years, and, as current as possible, so by going to 2014, there would be three years of data to judge. I used the advanced metric, win Shares per 48 minutes that measures players' effectiveness.

Surprise #1.

In those ten drafts, straight up, the 3rd pick was better than the 1st pick five times. A 50-50 proposition from the get go.

Bogut, Griffin, Wall, Bennett and Wiggins were not as good as 3rd picks Der. Williams, Harden, Favors, Porter, and Embiid

For those 1st picks that were better than the #3 straight up:

Bargnani over Morrison
Oden over Horford
D. Rose over Mayo
Irving over Kantor
A. Davis over Beal

I took the difference in WS/48 between those two and compared it to the WS/48 for 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th of the following draft to simulate the second part of the trade. When adding in the value of what they got with the following year's picks, only TWICE did the value of the first round pick exceed the value of the third pick that year and any of the 2nd thru 5th picks of the following year. Those two instances:

2012 #1 pick A. Davis was better than #3 pick Beal plus 2013 2nd pick Oladipo
2012 A. Davis was better than Beal plus 2013 5th pick Len

That's it.
Twice out of 40 chances (10 years of data x four comparisons per year i.e. 2nd-5th pick)

That's an incredible 95% probability for the Ainges.

I still like the deal, and like Fultz but we need to put it into historical perspective. History shows that hindsight may not be so kind.

Like a great cruise, enjoy it while we can. The bill for it will likely sting!

Joegrane
Wiggins has been far more valuable than Embiid because he has been on the court! Embiid would have been the #1 had he been healthy, no?

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Jun 21 2017, 08:00 PM) *
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-i...rder_by=year_id

I made a statement that my gut was telling me that more times than not, the team that trades the first pick of the NBA draft for the #3 and a future #2-#5 wins that trade more than not. I was thinking maybe 60-65% of the time.

Well I did a little research on the matter, using the ten years from 2005-2014 as the sample size. (See pro basketball reference above) The thinking was that I wanted to do only ten years, and, as current as possible, so by going to 2014, there would be three years of data to judge. I used the advanced metric, win Shares per 48 minutes that measures players' effectiveness.

Surprise #1.

In those ten drafts, straight up, the 3rd pick was better than the 1st pick five times. A 50-50 proposition from the get go.

Bogut, Griffin, Wall, Bennett and Wiggins were not as good as 3rd picks Der. Williams, Harden, Favors, Porter, and Embiid

For those 1st picks that were better than the #3 straight up:

Bargnani over Morrison
Oden over Horford
D. Rose over Mayo
Irving over Kantor
A. Davis over Beal

I took the difference in WS/48 between those two and compared it to the WS/48 for 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th of the following draft to simulate the second part of the trade. When adding in the value of what they got with the following year's picks, only TWICE did the value of the first round pick exceed the value of the third pick that year and any of the 2nd thru 5th picks of the following year. Those two instances:

2012 #1 pick A. Davis was better than #3 pick Beal plus 2013 2nd pick Oladipo
2012 A. Davis was better than Beal plus 2013 5th pick Len

That's it.
Twice out of 40 chances (10 years of data x four comparisons per year i.e. 2nd-5th pick)

That's an incredible 95% probability for the Ainges.

I still like the deal, and like Fultz but we need to put it into historical perspective. History shows that hindsight may not be so kind.

Like a great cruise, enjoy it while we can. The bill for it will likely sting!

D Rock
What, in the name of all that is holy are you talking about? Oden being "better" than anybody is lunacy. Your definition of "better" is based on exactly what? Williams, Favors, and Porter were better than Wall, Griffin, and Wiggins in what way?

This is where you numbers guys get fucked. No context. To say that Oden was more valuable than Horford is just fucking stupid.

REALLY stupid.

ETA: and I seriously doubt there is ANY way to back that garbage up with ANY numerical spin.
nephillymike
QUOTE (D Rock @ Jun 22 2017, 01:15 AM) *
What, in the name of all that is holy are you talking about? Oden being "better" than anybody is lunacy. Your definition of "better" is based on exactly what? Williams, Favors, and Porter were better than Wall, Griffin, and Wiggins in what way?

This is where you numbers guys get fucked. No context. To say that Oden was more valuable than Horford is just fucking stupid.

REALLY stupid.

ETA: and I seriously doubt there is ANY way to back that garbage up with ANY numerical spin.

Really stupid is not reading the link.

The ratings are based on career win shares per 48 minutes. I thought all Hinkie guys know analytics.

What that metric will do, is rate a guy for the games he played only, not the games missed. So an injured guy like Oden or Embiid will be rated for how they played when they played and won't get dinged for longevity of career.

I would have liked to have included VORP and BPM, but I didn't see them available on the sort table for the draft sort on probasketball reference. There may be some minor changes if they were listed, but the overall outlook would be unchanged.
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