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nephillymike
Listening to everyone opine on the airwaves, this is an extremely popular move.

I was initially stoked.

Then with all of the on air coverage, they showed the same two minute highlight reel.

After seeing it for the fourth time, I realized that he was very deliberate in his movement, seemed to lack the athleticism to dunk easily and had no first step burst. I then listen to experts opine how he is exactly what we need is multi faceted and an excellent fit. He may be all of that, but that particular highlight reel, he reminded me of one recent Sixer high draft pick:

Evan Turner.

The deliberate nature of his movements was eerily familiar.

I will track down some highlight and game film to hopefully put my mind at ease. For him to be such a consensus, it must be a bad reel.
D Rock
You're tripping. Evan Turner was a "consolation prize" in a weak draft. Fultz is THE prize of an historically deep draft.

Do your homework. This is a major coup.

I honestly can't figure out what Ainge was thinking. My guess is that he's worried about IT's ego, and will ultimately package his future assets for J.Butler or P.George.

For our Sixers...

This is a dream come true. Watch more film... Fultz was playing 1 vs. 5 all season, and put up sick numbers. He never saw an uncontested shot. He shoots like Monk and has a 6'10" wingspan. He can breakdown and offense like Fox, or DSJ, but is bigger and stronger. He's got a midrange game like Tatum, but with elite handles and range. The only guy with a higher ceiling is Isaac, but he comes with a significantly higher bust potential.
D Rock
Watch and Read
nephillymike
http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/nba/333...OS:topheadlines

The current rumors are that we give up the third pick this year plus the Lakers pick next year WITH SOME PROTECTIONS!

I think it is fair to assume it is protected for at least it being #1, otherwise why have protections. It is reasonable that BOS will have protections so that it is not too low of a pick, and maybe if it is too low, maybe it defaults to the Kings pick the next year. From BOS perspective, they are likely to turn that around in a trade for a big time FA. This is their time and they will have more assets than us. So this could mean that we will still get the LAL next year.

Now, I think the LAL finish out of the top six in the tanking standings next year, which means our asset depreciated over what it could have been. I know you differ on this. Now, Magic has nothing to gain from tanking AND he gets to put the screws to the hated BOS Celtics by doing better than the protected range. They won't finish top six.

If I was BOS, If forced, I'd let it be protected for #1 only, but, I would negotiate that they decide at the end of next year which they want, the 2018 LAL pick, the 2018 Sixers pick or the 2019 SAC pick. That would maximize options.

If this is true, that's far better than the LAL pick, the #3 plus our 2021 1st pick with protections that was advertised yesterday afternoon.

One thing to remember in this entire thing. It is really how we value Fultz over Jackson or Ball (unless we would pick someone else at three). If no trade for #1 was consummated, BOS could pass on Fultz for Jackson, which then leaves prob a 20% chance LAL take Ball over Fultz. Not likely, but not impossible. That needs to be factored in.

Fultz, while the consensus # 1 in this draft by almost everyone, is not thought as highly as Wiggins, Townes, or Simmons.

I will check out some trade value charts to see what the FMV of moving up to one from three is.
http://www.rotoworld.com/teams/depth-charts/nba.aspx

Check out this projected depth chart! They posted it, it must be true!!!
nephillymike
Here ya go.

Historical value of going from 3 to1 is the #10 pick, from 2 to 1 is the #12 pick.

Given that Fultz isn't thought of as highly as the three previous #1's, that value may be a tad lower.

Not saying it's a bad deal given the circumstances, but if as advertised, BOS is not getting fleeced.

http://fansided.com/2016/06/16/nba-draft-trade-value-chart/
nephillymike
QUOTE (D Rock @ Jun 18 2017, 12:26 AM) *


OK, I guess I'll take him on my team. wub.gif wub.gif

Awesome site and breakdown. I have used this site for rankings but never went deeper. It is awesome.

D. Russell comparison is not bringing big returns, but Harden and D. Wade? Sign me up.

A nervous Nellie like me reads this and gets real worried about Simmons. unsure.gif
D Rock
I'm ok with the Russell comp. The guy is all that skill wise. He's just a petulant douche bag and a locker room head ache. But as a player, he's pretty much got it all. Imagine if he ever grows up and actually works to improve. Fultz being sold as Russell with a good head on his shoulders sounds sweet to me.

Also, you'll note the obvious hater-ism that peaks it's head out periodically in that piece. I love reading these things where you can tell they want to trash the player, but simply can't because he's too fucking awesome.

Why would you worry about Simmons? The potential picks that would cause me to worry about him are those who can't shoot, spread the floor, or defend.

Fultz is the perfect fit to run with Simmons. No worries there at' all.
nephillymike
QUOTE (D Rock @ Jun 18 2017, 11:31 AM) *
I'm ok with the Russell comp. The guy is all that skill wise. He's just a petulant douche bag and a locker room head ache. But as a player, he's pretty much got it all. Imagine if he ever grows up and actually works to improve. Fultz being sold as Russell with a good head on his shoulders sounds sweet to me.

Also, you'll note the obvious hater-ism that peaks it's head out periodically in that piece. I love reading these things where you can tell they want to trash the player, but simply can't because he's too fucking awesome.

Why would you worry about Simmons? The potential picks that would cause me to worry about him are those who can't shoot, spread the floor, or defend.

Fultz is the perfect fit to run with Simmons. No worries there at' all.


My worries about Simmons was because the guy trashed what he did at LSU in the Fultz writeup.
D Rock
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Jun 18 2017, 07:09 PM) *
My worries about Simmons was because the guy trashed what he did at LSU in the Fultz writeup.

Like I said...

"Obvious hater-ism"

nephillymike
The details of the trade are in:

http://www.phillyvoice.com/grading-trade-s...-fultz-celtics/

So the Celtics get our Lakers pick in 2018 if it falls within the #2 - #5 range.

If it falls outside that range, we keep that pick and the Celtics get our 2019 SAC pick.

While we paid more than historical value for the move up, (unless the SAC pick is 10 or worst, unlikely ), however sometimes FMV exceeds historical value. I'm happy with the deal.

I would think Ainge could have gotten the same stipulations as this trade, same protections, however, he could have negotiated the right to select which option he wanted to exercise at the end of next season and including the Sixers pick. The Sixers really wouldn't be giving up much more, but the flexibility would increase the chances that the pick being valuable to Celtics. that would give them opportunity if things go bad for us, and also the opportunity to pass on SAC 2019 in case they spring up next year making the 2019 pick less attractive.

We did well with this pick.

Now I can put the finishing touches on my draft board for round 2. As of now we. Have four picks. We may trade one, do a Euro stash with one or two, so we'll see. remember, the roster size increases by 2 this year to 17, with 16 & 17 having the right to float between the D league and the NBA.

Off the top of my. Head, it looks like we should jettison Okafor, Rodriguez and maybe either Stauskas or Henderson. Long and Poytheus are not
NBA players. Draft BPPON for PF, SF, SG and C. We can pass on PG for this year. Should be some decent talent at those spots early and mid 2
D Rock
Henderson is done. I think he retires due to the hip. Sauce has value. I'm not sure he's less than Bayless. Sergio is going home to Spain.

Okafor? A total swing-and-a-miss. But at the time, all appearances suggested it was the right pick. I still think most of his problem is between the ears and effort. But at this point, just cut him lose. Maybe you'll get some sucker to drop a pair of 2nd rounders, but whatever....

The only thing to do now, is pray for health.
Joegrane
I'd prefer Top 3 protected. Celts don't deserve anything higher. Fultz is not as good as some other #1 picks.

I like Fultz as a fit for the Sixers' unusual situation with Simmons, but I don't think he'll have the physical talent to be an elite PG.

In contrast Jackson seems to have a better chance to be an All Star SF.

Then they would still have the Lakers' pick that will almost certainly be a lottery pick. Consider the caliber of PG that will likely be available around that point in the draft., for example Frank Ntilikina is expected to be drafted this year in the second half of the top 10.

Of course I don't know who will likely be available next year; however after looking at two 2018 Mock draft boards I like the Fultz trade a little better.

Also I don't know which FAs will be available next year--the year the Sixers are likely to be able to attract a highly desirable FA. Maybe they are targeting a FA SF rather than G. A. Wiggins is one. Can they afford to sign both Wiggins and Embiid?

There is also the issue of personalities. One reason I liked F Ntlikina is because he is not a ball hog on O. Maybe the Sixers are confident that Fultz's personality is the type that can coexist with their current core.

I don't hate the deal. Short of a strange injury, I don't expect it to turn out to be a bad trade.

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Jun 18 2017, 09:32 PM) *
The details of the trade are in:

http://www.phillyvoice.com/grading-trade-s...-fultz-celtics/

So the Celtics get our Lakers pick in 2018 if it falls within the #2 - #5 range.

If it falls outside that range, we keep that pick and the Celtics get our 2019 SAC pick.

While we paid more than historical value for the move up, (unless the SAC pick is 10 or worst, unlikely ), however sometimes FMV exceeds historical value. I'm happy with the deal.

I would think Ainge could have gotten the same stipulations as this trade, same protections, however, he could have negotiated the right to select which option he wanted to exercise at the end of next season and including the Sixers pick. The Sixers really wouldn't be giving up much more, but the flexibility would increase the chances that the pick being valuable to Celtics. that would give them opportunity if things go bad for us, and also the opportunity to pass on SAC 2019 in case they spring up next year making the 2019 pick less attractive.

We did well with this pick.

Now I can put the finishing touches on my draft board for round 2. As of now we. Have four picks. We may trade one, do a Euro stash with one or two, so we'll see. remember, the roster size increases by 2 this year to 17, with 16 & 17 having the right to float between the D league and the NBA.

Off the top of my. Head, it looks like we should jettison Okafor, Rodriguez and maybe either Stauskas or Henderson. Long and Poytheus are not
NBA players. Draft BPPON for PF, SF, SG and C. We can pass on PG for this year. Should be some decent talent at those spots early and mid 2

D Rock
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Jun 19 2017, 04:03 AM) *
I'd prefer Top 3 protected. Celts don't deserve anything higher. Fultz is not as good as some other #1 picks.

I like Fultz as a fit for the Sixers' unusual situation with Simmons, but I don't think he'll have the physical talent to be an elite PG.

In contrast Jackson seems to have a better chance to be an All Star SF.

Then they would still have the Lakers' pick that will almost certainly be a lottery pick. Consider the caliber of PG that will likely be available around that point in the draft., for example Frank Ntilikina is expected to be drafted this year in the second half of the top 10.

Of course I don't know who will likely be available next year; however after looking at two 2018 Mock draft boards I like the Fultz trade a little better.

Also I don't know which FAs will be available next year--the year the Sixers are likely to be able to attract a highly desirable FA. Maybe they are targeting a FA SF rather than G. A. Wiggins is one. Can they afford to sign both Wiggins and Embiid?

There is also the issue of personalities. One reason I liked F Ntlikina is because he is not a ball hog on O. Maybe the Sixers are confident that Fultz's personality is the type that can coexist with their current core.

I don't hate the deal. Short of a strange injury, I don't expect it to turn out to be a bad trade.

Where are you getting this garbage? Fultz "doesn't have the physical talent to be elite?" That's why his numbers compare to favorably to Russel Westbrook, D'Angelo Russell, Dwane Wade, & James Harden. I mean, it takes a total lack of physical talent to average 24 points a game, 6 assists (on a team that couldn't shoot) a game. It definitely takes a lack of physical talent to average nearly 6 boards a game AS A Point Guard. Yup no physical talent required.

And "not as good as other #1 picks." Based on what? Michael Olowakandi's great career? Andrew Bogut? Kwame Brown? Andrea Bargnani? Maybe you mean Greg Oden, or Anthony Bennet?

Hater. Have you even seen the kid play? He's not going #1 because he fits so well with our roster. We're picking #1 because he fits so well with our roster. He was going #1 regardless of who was going to make the pick. This is a deep draft, yet still it's "him then everybody else."
D Rock
Read
Reality Fan
I don't think that people wary of the move are haters....that is silly. It seems like a relatively low risk gamble because the Sixers are really not giving up a ton to get Fultz. He certainly looks the part. That there is some concern that he was not able to make his team better than they were can;t be shocking. The PAC 12 had some dreadful teams and the Huskies lost 5 games to the likes of ASU and WSU and Stanford who were all bad teams. They also lost their last 13 games, that has to be concerning. One can't dismiss the effect on numbers that playing on a bad team. It is hard to compare numbers for a Westbrook, whose team was 36-4 or Hardin whose team was 25-10. Russell's team was 24-11 and did not feature other NBA studs that I am aware of...I could be wrong there. Marquette was 27-6 with Wade and a host of nobodies. When comparing players in college you can't cherry pick the numbers.

That being said I can't see anyone shaming the move. The price is pretty good and there are no other players out there that make it seem like a bad idea. Beyond that there is a tipping point where you need to run with the horses you have and stop praying other teams suck so you can get another top pick.

Now the question is do the folks that bashed BC finally say something decent about him.
Reality Fan
Now if you really want to lose your mind read this trash....

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/sixers..._Brookover.html
D Rock
I read that Brookover piece, which I why I posted the link I did in response to Jo.

Lazy Journalism. That guy will be the 1st to write a ham handed puff piece in 6 months.

Fultz was in an impossible position at UW. The coach is terrible. His team mates shot a combined 28% on the season. He had zero help. I can recognize the concept of his numbers being inflated because he was the only option. But to manage 6 assist per game with a team that shot a collective 28% works in the other direction.

Bottom line for me is the tape. It doesn't lie. The kid consistently played 1 on 5 ball. I wont fault him for losing in that situation. In all the hours of tape I've watched on the kid, I don't think he had but a handful of open looks all year. Nearly each and EVERY shot was contested. He was assited on only 54% of his 3 point attempts. And STILL shot at a 42% clip. That's so badass it's mind boggling. To hit 42% on a high volume of 3 point attempts is impressive for any 18 year old. But to do it by taking half those shots off the dribble is just plain sick.

What I love about this trade is not only do we get the best player available, we also get the player that best aligns with our perceived roster needs. And to give up virtually nothing for the priviledge is awesome. I'm not sold on Bryan Colangelo yet, but this is a great move from every angle. I gladly give BC props here. There's a chance that the celts only get our own natural 2019 pick.

If the Lakers pick is 1st overall or later than 5, we keep it, and they get the 2019 Sacto pick. But what too few have reported, that pick is #1 overall protected. So if the Lakers 2018 doesn't convey to the celts, they would get EITHER the Sacto pick, or our natural pick in 2019, whichever is more favorable. HOWEVER, both of those 2019 picks are #1 protected. Sacto could be just that bad.

Joegrane
I hope you are right.

Re "hater." I actually wrote that I don't hate the move. My impression is that Fultz has a high floor and low ceiling. In contrast Embiid has a low floor and high ceiling. Sometimes you roll the dice, other times you play it safe. This feels like the latter, plus he is such a good fit for the Sixers' strange situation with Simmons.

Any comments on my points about Wiggins being the FA target or comparisons between Fultz and the combo guards who are likely to be available in next year's draft?

I really think the latter point is the key. They could have used a combination of picks next year to move up and get their guy. However may they felt Fultz's combination of attributes and personality are such a good fit with Simmons.

QUOTE (D Rock @ Jun 19 2017, 09:24 AM) *
Where are you getting this garbage? Fultz "doesn't have the physical talent to be elite?" That's why his numbers compare to favorably to Russel Westbrook, D'Angelo Russell, Dwane Wade, & James Harden. I mean, it takes a total lack of physical talent to average 24 points a game, 6 assists (on a team that couldn't shoot) a game. It definitely takes a lack of physical talent to average nearly 6 boards a game AS A Point Guard. Yup no physical talent required.

And "not as good as other #1 picks." Based on what? Michael Olowakandi's great career? Andrew Bogut? Kwame Brown? Andrea Bargnani? Maybe you mean Greg Oden, or Anthony Bennet?

Hater. Have you even seen the kid play? He's not going #1 because he fits so well with our roster. We're picking #1 because he fits so well with our roster. He was going #1 regardless of who was going to make the pick. This is a deep draft, yet still it's "him then everybody else."

D Rock
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Jun 19 2017, 11:05 PM) *
I hope you are right.

Re "hater." I actually wrote that I don't hate the move. My impression is that Fultz has a high floor and low ceiling. In contrast Embiid has a low floor and high ceiling. Sometimes you roll the dice, other times you play it safe. This feels like the latter, plus he is such a good fit for the Sixers' strange situation with Simmons.

Any comments on my points about Wiggins being the FA target or comparisons between Fultz and the combo guards who are likely to be available in next year's draft?

I really think the latter point is the key. They could have used a combination of picks next year to move up and get their guy. However may they felt Fultz's combination of attributes and personality are such a good fit with Simmons.

Considering how little it cost us to move up and grab Fultz, it's a complete no brainer.

Wiggins? Really? Were he and Fultz both available in the same draft, I still go Fultz. Slightly less athleticism in exchange for a complete 2 way player with legit shooting at all 3 levels. Our first, second, and third needs are shooting, shooting, and shooting. Wiggins is still looking for his jumper and despite playing with KAT, folks are STILL banking on promise there. That's a bad omen this many years in. Add to that, the fact that his current team holds his "Bird rights" and we can't offer the same $$$ that the TWolves can regardless of cap restraints. We've discussed the obsolescence of building through free agency a few times over the last month. The CBA makes it so a guy has to be willing to leave 10s of millions on the table to change teams. I don't see that Timberwolves group as dysfunctional enough to see players eschew 10-20 mil for a change of scenery. Sure, we'll see Gordon Hayward move this summer (maybe) and Paul George hates Indiana. But the vast majority of guys with franchise altering ability will be staying put for the foreseeable future. Free agency will offer the likes of JJ Redick, Patty Mills, with the ceiling being represented by kyle lowry types.

Personally, I want nothing to do with Lowry.

I've been telling you for weeks now... The Process is over. No more pushing assets into the future. It's time to maximize our roster and make some noise NOW. I'm not waiting on a 17 year old and the lottery balls falling in line, when I have a chance at a guy who is quite literally the best guard prospect to come out in a decade.
Joegrane
"literally the best guard prospect to come out in a decade."

Thanks for the reply, especially your thoughts on Wiggins.

I see you are very high on Fultz. I suspect you will be hearing the quote above quite a lot from your "friends" in 5 years and after.

I agree about Lowry. I don't think he is a fit for the Sixers, especially at his age.

QUOTE (D Rock @ Jun 19 2017, 05:50 PM) *
Considering how little it cost us to move up and grab Fultz, it's a complete no brainer.

Wiggins? Really? Were he and Fultz both available in the same draft, I still go Fultz. Slightly less athleticism in exchange for a complete 2 way player with legit shooting at all 3 levels. Our first, second, and third needs are shooting, shooting, and shooting. Wiggins is still looking for his jumper and despite playing with KAT, folks are STILL banking on promise there. That's a bad omen this many years in. Add to that, the fact that his current team holds his "Bird rights" and we can't offer the same $$$ that the TWolves can regardless of cap restraints. We've discussed the obsolescence of building through free agency a few times over the last month. The CBA makes it so a guy has to be willing to leave 10s of millions on the table to change teams. I don't see that Timberwolves group as dysfunctional enough to see players eschew 10-20 mil for a change of scenery. Sure, we'll see Gordon Hayward move this summer (maybe) and Paul George hates Indiana. But the vast majority of guys with franchise altering ability will be staying put for the foreseeable future. Free agency will offer the likes of JJ Redick, Patty Mills, with the ceiling being represented by kyle lowry types.

Personally, I want nothing to do with Lowry.

I've been telling you for weeks now... The Process is over. No more pushing assets into the future. It's time to maximize our roster and make some noise NOW. I'm not waiting on a 17 year old and the lottery balls falling in line, when I have a chance at a guy who is quite literally the best guard prospect to come out in a decade.

nephillymike
I like this trade.

I like what we hear about Fultz.

I love how he fits on this team.

I really like him as Simmons as a PG insurance

However, from a raw basketball trade value calculation and odds perspective, it comes down to is Fultz better than this year's 3rd pick plus what should be a 2nd -5th pick in either '18 or '19. Brookover's analysis may have holes, but at face value, the difference between the 1st and 3rd pick over the last 20 years comes down to two more of them being the best player of the draft, four times as opposed to only twice for the #3 pick, but both had the same number of times in the top ten. I shared a study that says the trade value of the move up is the 10th pick, and it looks like we will have given up somewhere in the 2-5 range. Brookover's analysis is flawed, in that he never adds the production of the second part of this deal to the other side of the equation. I would think that most times, the #3 from one draft + the #2,3,4 or 5 from the next draft, is better than the #1 from the one draft. My guess is out of the numerous iterations, the #1 comes out on the short end most times. Lastly, while Fultz is the clear consensus best pick of this draft, he was ranked fourth among the last four #1 picks in a poll with GM's recently (I think someone linked that back a while ago). He is the best this year, but the gap between 1&3 this year is less than perceived at this time in most years.

And don't cry for Boston. If Jackson lasts until the 3rd pick, then they could very much be drafting the guy they would have picked at #1 and picked up a top 5 for their time. Now if Jackson goes to LA, then not so much!

All that being said, I like this deal a lot. I am excited to see how we do this year and look forward to playing basketball with potential playoff ramifications for the first time in what seems like

FOR-EV-ER

However, it doesn't mean that you ignore the historical odds of how draft picks have fared.

Can't wait. jumpclap.gif
D Rock
I don't think you can place "value" in direct correlation to "draft position" like we do in the NFL, or have a generally accepted "trade value" chart that tends to dictate what any move up or down should cost or garner.

Rosters are so small in the NBA. A 2nd rounder is gold in the NFL draft. In the NBA it's a throw away pick.

I get what you're saying and respect your "resident numbers guy" want to fit all this into some replicable formula.

But, I believe firmly that the NBA is an entirely different animal where those concepts don't easily apply.

I honestly couldn't care less about the historical difference between the 1st & 3rd overall pick. I care only about getting the guy who fits what we need. That we managed to do that is fucking GREAT!
nephillymike
QUOTE (D Rock @ Jun 19 2017, 10:00 PM) *
I don't think you can place "value" in direct correlation to "draft position" like we do in the NFL, or have a generally accepted "trade value" chart that tends to dictate what any move up or down should cost or garner.

Rosters are so small in the NBA. A 2nd rounder is gold in the NFL draft. In the NBA it's a throw away pick.

I get what you're saying and respect your "resident numbers guy" want to fit all this into some replicable formula.

But, I believe firmly that the NBA is an entirely different animal where those concepts don't easily apply.

I honestly couldn't care less about the historical difference between the 1st & 3rd overall pick. I care only about getting the guy who fits what we need. That we managed to do that is fucking GREAT!

Regardless of the league or draft, it still comes down to measuring the output of the prospects drafted in each slot and coming up with a relative value table based on that output. The top heaviness of the NBA is evident in the charts versus a league like the NFL that has a flatter distribution. The concepts apply, just that the slope is much steeper in the NBA.

D Rock
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Jun 20 2017, 04:13 AM) *
Regardless of the league or draft, it still comes down to measuring the output of the prospects drafted in each slot and coming up with a relative value table based on that output. The top heaviness of the NBA is evident in the charts versus a league like the NFL that has a flatter distribution. The concepts apply, just that the slope is much steeper in the NBA.

I'll agree with the measurable output being key, but the specific slot matters less to me. KD went after Oden. But the formulas suggest the 2nd pick has a significant drop off. My point is that it's the player, not where he was drafted that matters. If you, as a GM, feel that player a is going to provide the greatest output (to use your word) within the confines of your roster/scheme, you do what you can to get that player. Some would say that's why Celts traded down. They have, according to what I'm reading, been locked in on Tatum for 3-4 years. They know they can get him at 3. I think they could get him at 5. But whoever holds that 1 spot, is going Fultz. They just happen to have a deep back-court so....

Take a look at the Lakers. They're a shit show. And they have nothing that anyone could want. They rode the Kobe train too long. Gave away assets for what they hoped would be complementary pieces. Had to overpay for bottom level free agents. They're going to be in the lottery for another 4 years unless the Pacers are stupid enough to let P.George reach free agency in 2018, or Lebron decides to "take his talents" to tinsel town.

You can't discount the minuscule roster size that we're dealing with here, compared to every other major sport. It's a huge factor in my opinion.

Regarding Hinkie, I'm a bit surprised you're seemingly so against his philosophy. It's born of an approach based on analytics, optionality, and swinging for the fences. The nay-sayers forget, he built that roster in Houston. The man knows how to assemble a group of that can rise to the top.

I only hope his next gig is in the Western Conference.
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