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I did a quick study of how recent rookie QBs performed in their second season versus their rookie season.

I used data from any QB drafted from 2010 - 2015.

In order to be included, the QB needed to have started more than half the games as a rookie AND start more than half the games in his second season.

I then compared their passer rating in their second season with that of their first to get an expected % increase.

Those who met the criteria of the study include:


Wentz rookie season Passer Rating of 79.3 places him 8th of 13, between Carr and Dalton.

Here are some general findings:

10 of the 12 QB in the study improved in year two. Only Bradford and Griffin saw their play decrease.

Overall, The average Passer Rating in year 2 went up by an average of 4.3%

If you ignore the two QBs whose play dropped off, year two goes up by 8.2%.

So taking Wentz Passer Rating last year and extrapolating, his 79.3 will improve to a min of 82.7 (4.3%) to a maximum of 85.8. Not too much. In QB rankings, an improvement of those amounts will help but not to any great surprise. Wentz was 25th in passing last year. If he goes up by 4.3%, he would still be 25th. If he goes up by 8.2%, he would jump up two spots to 23rd.

Based on recent history, expect minor improvement, not a windfall.

Reality Fan
I would expect a significant improvement. He was given significant upgrades at WR and depth on the O line.

as far as the 2 that did not improve it is well documented how bad the Rams as a team were and Griffin was a different player after his injury.

There is no reason that Wentz should not take a huge step forward.
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ May 9 2017, 12:29 AM) *
I would expect a significant improvement. He was given significant upgrades at WR and depth on the O line.

Exactly. I'm not sure, but what mikey's numbers seem to ignore is how the team addressed the situation. In the Eagles case, not only did they address one of the most critical spots for passer rating (WR), they also refused a request for their QB coach to interview for a promotion and focused on the OL.

I'm expecting a significant jump in QB play this year and I hope I'm not disappointed. The team is going all in for Wentz and the only piece missing is a solid starting RB. There's also potential for the sophomore HC to refine offensive schemes to maximize Wentz's chance for success.
Averaging out measurables that are completely independent from the subject you're trying to forecast is not just flawed, it's completely foolhardy. It has no correlation.
Doesn't wentz remind you of a young Brett Farve?

Something about his mechanics and decision making reminds me very much of Farve. Not to mention his ability to take punishment.
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