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nephillymike
http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/80...-draft-by-round

This is an interesting study.

Based upon the rounds and positions our guys were selected. for this purpose, success is defined as being a starter for more than 50% of the games played in your career:

Player..............Pos............%chance
Barnett............DE.............26% (ouch! DL has a high bust rate. I think he'll be fine)
Jones...............CB.............46% (2nd rnd CB's have high success rate x 5% per Joe's est recovery % = 2.3%!! tongue.gif )
Douglas............CB.............24% 3rd round
Hollins..............WR............12% 4th round
Pumphrey.........RB.............11% 4th round
Gibson..............WR............16% 5th round
Gerry...............OLB..............4% 5th round
Qualls...............DT..............13% 6th round

Do the math, and it's 1.5 significant starters on this sample, assuming Jones has 100% chance of recovery. If assume a 50% chance at full recovery, and it drops to 1.25 significant starters.

When's FA start again??? biggrin.gif
Joegrane
To be consistent, Jones only needs to recover to the ability of a 2nd rounder, not to the level of a high 1st rounder. My impression from reports that have been dribbling out is that he has a 75% chance of that, plus 12% chance of doing better than that and 12% chance of doing worse than that.

Some of the players the Eagles selected are obviously specialists, not every-down players, especially Pumphrey, Gerry and Qualls. Even Douglas may be more of a matchup and Red Zone specialist where you want a long, physical CB.

I have not been this excited about an Eagles draft class in quite a while. It is not that I think they will be great players, Pro Bowlers. It is that they seem to be "Philly guys," the type of players we like to route for.

Qualls manning up and stuffing a run in the Red Zone.

Gerry laying some wood.

Pumphrey continuing the Sproles tradition

Hollins taking the tips of sports science and becoming a healthy WR, someone who Wentz trusts to battle for the ball in contested situations.

Douglass being physical with big receivers and breaking up passes in the end zone.

Jones making the improbable comeback to near Pro Bowl talent level.

Barnett bringing it every play, displaying leadership by setting the standard of effort for the D.

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 30 2017, 02:42 PM) *
http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/80...-draft-by-round

This is an interesting study.

Based upon the rounds and positions our guys were selected. for this purpose, success is defined as being a starter for more than 50% of the games played in your career:

Player..............Pos............%chance
Barnett............DE.............26% (ouch! DL has a high bust rate. I think he'll be fine)
Jones...............CB.............46% (2nd rnd CB's have high success rate x 5% per Joe's est recovery % = 2.3%!! tongue.gif )
Douglas............CB.............24% 3rd round
Hollins..............WR............12% 4th round
Pumphrey.........RB.............11% 4th round
Gibson..............WR............16% 5th round
Gerry...............OLB..............4% 5th round
Qualls...............DT..............13% 6th round

Do the math, and it's 1.5 significant starters on this sample, assuming Jones has 100% chance of recovery. If assume a 50% chance at full recovery, and it drops to 1.25 significant starters.

When's FA start again??? biggrin.gif

nephillymike
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Apr 30 2017, 07:25 PM) *
To be consistent, Jones only needs to recover to the ability of a 2nd rounder, not to the level of a high 1st rounder. My impression from reports that have been dribbling out is that he has a 75% chance of that, plus 12% chance of doing better than that and 12% chance of doing worse than that.

Some of the players the Eagles selected are obviously specialists, not every-down players, especially Pumphrey, Gerry and Qualls. Even Douglas may be more of a matchup and Red Zone specialist where you want a long, physical CB.

I have not been this excited about an Eagles draft class in quite a while. It is not that I think they will be great players, Pro Bowlers. It is that they seem to be "Philly guys," the type of players we like to route for.

Qualls manning up and stuffing a run in the Red Zone.

Gerry laying some wood.

Pumphrey continuing the Sproles tradition

Hollins taking the tips of sports science and becoming a healthy WR, someone who Wentz trusts to battle for the ball in contested situations.

Douglass being physical with big receivers and breaking up passes in the end zone.

Jones making the improbable comeback to near Pro Bowl talent level.

Barnett bringing it every play, displaying leadership by setting the standard of effort for the D.


The 46% success level of significant starters is for round two CB's.
Zero
QUOTE
"Their whole thing is just get guys that, not just will buy in, but, whoever the coach is, whatever the situation, they just want to be over at NovaCare and they just want to grind and get after it. They don't have a lot of other agendas other than to play and get better. I think that's a big part of what they did.''
Linc ...

I think in some way, this may balance the metrics-only approach. Athletes who may grade lower in measurables but have the relentless drive to succeed. Obviously talent is needed, but guys like Mike Reichenbach come to mind when reading that, and although he wasn't the most talented LB he was pretty effective for a couple of years.
Pila
QUOTE (Zero @ May 1 2017, 11:41 AM) *
Linc ...

I think in some way, this may balance the metrics-only approach. Athletes who may grade lower in measurables but have the relentless drive to succeed. Obviously talent is needed, but guys like Mike Reichenbach come to mind when reading that, and although he wasn't the most talented LB he was pretty effective for a couple of years.


Almost everyone at this level sacrifices to levels that most of us will never know.

But everything is a matter of degree. There are no exceptions to this truth.

Much like skill and talent, effort is also a matter of ever evolving degree. Greatness takes a constant drive past previous limits that in any other activity it would be classified as a clinical illness.
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