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nephillymike
http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/basketbal...illes-recovery/

I'll keep looking for good news.
Eagle2720
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 28 2017, 08:30 PM) *


Though completely different position, Peters has recovered just fine and has still been excellent since his a few years back.
nephillymike
http://lermagazine.com/article/return-to-f...-tendon-rupture

WTF!

I agree with you on Peters. But my man ain't running 40 yd dashes against the fastest guys on earth.

nephillymike
https://www.si.com/edge/2015/04/16/rothman-...ies-kobe-bryant

This makes three articles, not cherry picked.

All are bad news.

Many never return.

Most have shortened careers.

An over whelming majority never return near to form.

It looks like too heavy risk with a second round pick.

Probably less than 20% shot at returning to pre injury status.

Man.

Disappointing.
SAM I Am
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 28 2017, 08:53 PM) *
https://www.si.com/edge/2015/04/16/rothman-...ies-kobe-bryant

This makes three articles, not cherry picked.

All are bad news.

Many never return.

Most have shortened careers.

An over whelming majority never return near to form.

It looks like too heavy risk with a second round pick.

Probably less than 20% shot at returning to pre injury status.

Man.

Disappointing.

Even so, he'll still be better than what we have right now.
Zero
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 28 2017, 08:53 PM) *
https://www.si.com/edge/2015/04/16/rothman-...ies-kobe-bryant

This makes three articles, not cherry picked.

All are bad news.

Many never return.

Most have shortened careers.

An over whelming majority never return near to form.

It looks like too heavy risk with a second round pick.

Probably less than 20% shot at returning to pre injury status.

Man.

Disappointing.

The team has one of the best sports science departments and did extensive research on the kid and his injury. Sure it's a risk, but I like it. He's 20 years old, in top physical condition and the injury is apparently higher up on the leg which is supposed to be less serious and easier to heal. If it turns out the way they think, they'll have a pretty good secondary in 2018, especially aided by what looks like what should be a pretty good pass rush.
nephillymike
I am guessing that few, if any, read the articles.

A brief summary of the three studies:

Study #1
36% of players with achilles tears never return to action
of those who do, they take about a year to return
upon return, they experience a 50% decrease in power.
those who come back play 3-4 seasons on average

Study #2
10 of 31 never returned (32%)
on average, those who came back came back after 11 months
- they saw significant decreases in performance

Study #3
NBA players 7 of 18 did not return (39%)
Those who returned saw there minutes decreased by 27%

I'm sorry, this was a stupid risk, especially in the 2nd round.

Basically, based n three studies, he has a 2/3 chance of returning and a zero percent chance of not being adversely effected.

We should have taken CB Q. Wilson at that spot.

I hope he makes it, and maybe there is some better % for the high up tear, but the samples include all types of achilles tears.

There was no need to take this risk.



Birdwatcher
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 29 2017, 04:41 PM) *
I am guessing that few, if any, read the articles.

A brief summary of the three studies:

Study #1
36% of players with achilles tears never return to action
of those who do, they take about a year to return
upon return, they experience a 50% decrease in power.
those who come back play 3-4 seasons on average

Study #2
10 of 31 never returned (32%)
on average, those who came back came back after 11 months
- they saw significant decreases in performance

Study #3
NBA players 7 of 18 did not return (39%)
Those who returned saw there minutes decreased by 27%

I'm sorry, this was a stupid risk, especially in the 2nd round.

Basically, based n three studies, he has a 2/3 chance of returning and a zero percent chance of not being adversely effected.

We should have taken CB Q. Wilson at that spot.

I hope he makes it, and maybe there is some better % for the high up tear, but the samples include all types of achilles tears.

There was no need to take this risk.


Problem with those studies, everyone in them were IN professional sports when they happened, making them both older and with more wear and tear on their bodies overall. The kid is twenty, sounds like a less severe tear than it could be, and medical science keeps getting better every year. I doubt they made the pick without getting multiple medical opinions about his particular prognosis. I doubt he sees the field this year, and by next year when OTAS start he should be in pretty good shape. So, if he does turn into something special, expect to get ribbed for how upset this pick made you for years to come.
Birdwatcher
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 29 2017, 04:41 PM) *
I am guessing that few, if any, read the articles.

A brief summary of the three studies:

Study #1
36% of players with achilles tears never return to action
of those who do, they take about a year to return
upon return, they experience a 50% decrease in power.
those who come back play 3-4 seasons on average

Study #2
10 of 31 never returned (32%)
on average, those who came back came back after 11 months
- they saw significant decreases in performance

Study #3
NBA players 7 of 18 did not return (39%)
Those who returned saw there minutes decreased by 27%

I'm sorry, this was a stupid risk, especially in the 2nd round.

Basically, based n three studies, he has a 2/3 chance of returning and a zero percent chance of not being adversely effected.

We should have taken CB Q. Wilson at that spot.

I hope he makes it, and maybe there is some better % for the high up tear, but the samples include all types of achilles tears.

There was no need to take this risk.


Problem with those studies, everyone in them were IN professional sports when they happened, making them both older and with more wear and tear on their bodies overall. The kid is twenty, sounds like a less severe tear than it could be, and medical science keeps getting better every year. I doubt they made the pick without getting multiple medical opinions about his particular prognosis. I doubt he sees the field this year, and by next year when OTAS start he should be in pretty good shape. So, if he does turn into something special, expect to get ribbed for how upset this pick made you for years to come.
nephillymike
I hope you are right.

Mikeynumbers plays the odds and it looks like this one is a 4-1 long shot.
D Rock
Each one of these "studies" are apples to oranges comparisons with extremely limited data sets.

Weak science, that should be easily recognized by a numbers guy.

nephillymike
QUOTE (D Rock @ Apr 30 2017, 10:38 AM) *
Each one of these "studies" are apples to oranges comparisons with extremely limited data sets.

Weak science, that should be easily recognized by a numbers guy.



No not really.

They were samples of every NBA or NFL player who had an achilles tear over certain periods. I ingored baseball as the strains of a CB are more suitable to NBA and NFL.
Now they could narrow the sample size to CB who had this that came from PAC 12 schools but then I think there would not be sufficient data. tongue.gif
D Rock
When the sample size of each individual study is roughly 30, I'd say we're already in the realm of insufficient data.

What about age? What about placement of injury? (above heel? Below? Right at apex?). Are we to assume identical rehab protocols? Quality of tissue used to repair? All in a sample size of 30?

Seeing Demeco and JP both return and excel, while north of 30 gives me cause for optimism.
The Franchise
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 29 2017, 04:11 PM) *
Mikeynumbers plays the odds and it looks like this one is a 4-1 long shot.


So it's Kings vs. Aces heads up. The Kings still get lucky 20% of the time.

Of course 4-1 is an arbitrary percentage you picked out and doesn't really apply here. I feel it's an appropriate gamble, not giving up too much for what could end up really paying off. He has age and time on his side, while his position demands he make a 100% recovery to be effective. Wait and see.
nephillymike
QUOTE (The Franchise @ Apr 30 2017, 01:12 PM) *
So it's Kings vs. Aces heads up. The Kings still get lucky 20% of the time.

Of course 4-1 is an arbitrary percentage you picked out and doesn't really apply here. I feel it's an appropriate gamble, not giving up too much for what could end up really paying off. He has age and time on his side, while his position demands he make a 100% recovery to be effective. Wait and see.


well, I like the Poker reference with the odds.

To the Franchise and DRock:

What % chance do you think he has at regaining his full ability in that leg? Full ability meaning full strength and full speed?

Joegrane
I'm assuming it is only 5%.

The question that is relevant for me is the % chance he can play in 2018 as well as one would expect for a high 2nd rounder.

It would be great if he could eventually perform as well as Conley, White and the other low 1st round CBs.

In the second half of the year I hope he will perform as well as McKelvin did in his best moments last year. At least he'll give us some depth and another CB to rotate. I can't imagine he'll have the stamina to play 75% of the snaps/game this year.

My guess is that if he was not going to be ready to contribute something this year Howie would not have selected him there. I still think the Eagles are in win-now mode for this season.

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 30 2017, 01:32 PM) *
To the Franchise and DRock:

What % chance do you think he has at regaining his full ability in that leg? Full ability meaning full strength and full speed?

nephillymike
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Apr 30 2017, 02:14 PM) *
I'm assuming it is only 5%.

The question that is relevant for me is the % chance he can play in 2018 as well as one would expect for a high 2nd rounder.

It would be great if he could eventually perform as well as Conley, White and the other low 1st round CBs.

In the second half of the year I hope he will perform as well as McKelvin did in his best moments last year. At least he'll give us some depth and another CB to rotate. I can't imagine he'll have the stamina to play 75% of the snaps/game this year.

My guess is that if he was not going to be ready to contribute something this year Howie would not have selected him there. I still think the Eagles are in win-now mode for this season.


Wow Joe, even my "Axisish" odds of 20% are better than your 5%!!

If you don't expect him to recover, or to have a 19-1 odds shot of doing so, there is no way you can be OK with that pick.
The Franchise
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 30 2017, 01:32 PM) *
What % chance do you think he has at regaining his full ability in that leg? Full ability meaning full strength and full speed?


My big concern is his position, that's all. CB is the toughest position for every step you lose. Otherwise, from what I hear he's likely to be cleared early in the season.

Based on what I've seen and heard about him, I'd give it 33%. Or for a poker reference, the cruel world is holding KK, but Jones has a shot with AK suited. tongue.gif
nephillymike
DR, what are your odds of him recovering fully??
D Rock
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 30 2017, 07:32 PM) *
well, I like the Poker reference with the odds.

To the Franchise and DRock:

What % chance do you think he has at regaining his full ability in that leg? Full ability meaning full strength and full speed?

Obviously speculating... but, I'm feeling it's 50/50 at worst.

D Rock
QUOTE (The Franchise @ Apr 30 2017, 08:27 PM) *
My big concern is his position, that's all. CB is the toughest position for every step you lose. Otherwise, from what I hear he's likely to be cleared early in the season.

Based on what I've seen and heard about him, I'd give it 33%. Or for a poker reference, the cruel world is holding KK, but Jones has a shot with AK suited. tongue.gif

I hear you regarding the demands of his position. But, would counter with the lesser workload required of that tendon for a 190 lbs body vs. that of a 330 lbs load. Considering the fact that the vast majority of Achilles injuries are non-contact in nature, it's logically a matter of workload.
Reality Fan
another thing to note is that besides the benefit of youth for his recovery science has grown in the Achilles area and it is still very new as to the recovery of players using current techniques. That being said, Kobe came back and was still pretty decent in his 30s as was Dominique Wilkins who also had an Achilles tear in his mid 30s.

I can't imagine that they did not consult heavily with his docs and their own sports science people and have a pretty good idea where he is and what the probable return to health will look like. I like the gamble in that this guy was supposed to be the top 1 or 2 CBs in the draft.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ May 1 2017, 01:35 AM) *
another thing to note is that besides the benefit of youth for his recovery science has grown in the Achilles area and it is still very new as to the recovery of players using current techniques. That being said, Kobe came back and was still pretty decent in his 30s as was Dominique Wilkins who also had an Achilles tear in his mid 30s.

I can't imagine that they did not consult heavily with his docs and their own sports science people and have a pretty good idea where he is and what the probable return to health will look like. I like the gamble in that this guy was supposed to be the top 1 or 2 CBs in the draft.

Kobe's play deteriorated.

Wilkins is the one player they cite as coming back successfully.

Interestingly, did not hear mention of Peters. Don't know why.
nephillymike
DR and Franchise, I don't understand the logic.

D said 50%, F said 33%.

The draft is a crapshoot. But to dampen the probability of success by another 50-67%, when history says it's 46% without injury, seems too big of a risk in the 2nd round. That decrease in probability of performance feels like a 4th round pick at best. I can take a look later. My guess is you need to get to around 80% full recovery expectancy rate to justify the 2nd round pick.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ May 1 2017, 06:17 AM) *
Kobe's play deteriorated.

Wilkins is the one player they cite as coming back successfully.

Interestingly, did not hear mention of Peters. Don't know why.


lol...Kobe was 35 and still averaged 22 the following year. By the way...did I mention that he had already played 17 seasons and 1359 games at that point?......lol

I would love to see the list of who was hurt, their age and circumstance. It appears much depends on the player and their drive as well as their age, etc and body type. As D said, it really is an apples and oranges comparison.
The Franchise
QUOTE (nephillymike @ May 1 2017, 06:23 AM) *
DR and Franchise, I don't understand the logic.

D said 50%, F said 33%.

The draft is a crapshoot. But to dampen the probability of success by another 50-67%, when history says it's 46% without injury, seems too big of a risk in the 2nd round. That decrease in probability of performance feels like a 4th round pick at best. I can take a look later. My guess is you need to get to around 80% full recovery expectancy rate to justify the 2nd round pick.


You're asking for arbitrary odds from fans who don't know exactly what is going on behind the scenes, and comparing those odds to players from different positions, and even different sports, to guys who were much older. If you have a sample study of 21 year old CB's and their recovery rate, let's see it. Otherwise, we have to assume Howie was confident enough in his ability to recover to justify a 2nd round pick.
The Franchise
QUOTE (D Rock @ May 1 2017, 01:26 AM) *
I hear you regarding the demands of his position. But, would counter with the lesser workload required of that tendon for a 190 lbs body vs. that of a 330 lbs load. Considering the fact that the vast majority of Achilles injuries are non-contact in nature, it's logically a matter of workload.


That's a fair point, and makes me feel even better about the pick.
Joegrane
I'm assuming 5% chance of recovering to the ability of a Top 10 pick.

Based on things I'm hearing I like his chances of recovering to the skill level of a 2nd rounder.

One guy on the radio last evening said it is a high achilles injury, not low achilles. This is an advantage.

He said blood flow is not a big issue in this particular injury.

He also said the injury was not large and was in a favorable location.

If this information is true and is as relevant as the caller suggests, I wonder if Jones is going to be active on game day before the middle of the season?

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 30 2017, 02:25 PM) *
Wow Joe, even my "Axisish" odds of 20% are better than your 5%!!

If you don't expect him to recover, or to have a 19-1 odds shot of doing so, there is no way you can be OK with that pick.
The Franchise
QUOTE (Joegrane @ May 1 2017, 04:16 PM) *
I'm assuming 5% chance of recovering to the ability of a Top 10 pick.

Based on things I'm hearing I like his chances of recovering to the skill level of a 2nd rounder.


Since our '02 Mega-DB draft, the closest we've come to drafting serviceable starters in the secondary has been Nate Allen, Brandon Boykin, and Sean Considine. Demps and Coleman if you want to count guys who turned into decent players after leaving us. 4 of those 5 are Safeties.

If Jones turns into a decent starter at CB for 3-4 years, we should be thanking our lucky stars.
Joegrane
For a guy his age I'm hoping he'll be around for 7-10 yrs but I hear you.

QUOTE (The Franchise @ May 1 2017, 04:20 PM) *
Since our '02 Mega-DB draft, the closest we've come to drafting serviceable starters in the secondary has been Nate Allen, Brandon Boykin, and Sean Considine. Demps and Coleman if you want to count guys who turned into decent players after leaving us. 4 of those 5 are Safeties.

If Jones turns into a decent starter at CB for 3-4 years, we should be thanking our lucky stars.

Zero
Nice article on Jones during the draft.
QUOTE
As the draft approached, Hendrickson conveyed Jones’s optimism to potential suitors. He touted the credentials of Robert Anderson, the respected Charlotte-based orthopedic surgeon who had performed the surgery; he noted how Jones’s Achilles had torn near the top of the tendon, where it tends to heal faster. He pointed to players—retired wideout Steve Smith, Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs, Broncos receiver Demaryius Thomas, Dolphins pass-rusher Cameron Wake—who’d returned from the same injury in as little as five months.



Here ...
Joegrane
Thanks for the link. Yes, nice article but must have been written by his grandmother--way too long.

"Jones pursued a degree in American Ethnic Studies at UW"

What do you do with that degree after football?! What does that say about his judgement.


QUOTE (Zero @ May 5 2017, 06:11 AM) *
Nice article on Jones during the draft.



Here ...

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