Help - Search - Members - Calendar
Full Version: NBA Lottery
Eagles Forum > Philadelphia Eagles Message Board > Philadelphia Eagles or Football Related Discussion
Pages: 1, 2
D Rock
In unscientific exercise, I ran the ESPN drat lottery simulator 10 times today wondering how the Lakers 3 game win streak affected our chances...

in 10 attempts, we got the 2 picks (ours and the Lakers) in 7 out of 10 ties.

in 2 of the 3 instances where we only had our own pick, it was #1 overall.
nephillymike
Some guys who are addicted to this stuff, ran the Tankathon simulator over 300 times, during various periods over the last month.

If I get a chance , I'll have MikeyNumbers post the results.

Best case, keep the LAL at 3, we tie or get 4 outright, and have SAC get 7 by themselves.

Any chance the LAL went on a win streak to AVOID Ball?
D Rock
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 10 2017, 11:20 PM) *
Any chance the LAL went on a win streak to AVOID Ball?

laugh.gif
nephillymike
Well, the good news is that the LAL win streak has sealed the #3 spot for them and gives us a 53% chance to get their pick.

The bad news is that SAC semi decent play recently has pushed them down to a tie for 8th with free fall DAL. At one time they were 6th. That could hurt.

If the chalk holds tonight:

ORL slight fav to win over DET
PHI slight fav to win over Carmelloless NY
DAL dogs to MEM
MIN dogs vs Hou
SAC dogs vs LAC

That would leave nothing changed from current; we tie for 4th, SAC tie for 8th, LAL in 3rd.

It would be nice to have us get 4 by ourselves and/or SAC get up to 7.

There's a chance, but not the most likely outcome.
nephillymike
We get 4th with our loss and Orlando win!

Got to hope SAC loses to stop the slide of their pick.
nephillymike
Sixers 4th
SAC 8th by themselves.
LAL 3rd.

Not bad

I'll run the numbers tonight.
Joegrane
This is such a huge draft for "the process." You can see that if Embiid is reasonably healthy, this team is not going to be drafting in the Too 10 next year--unless it is the Lakers' pick.

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 12 2017, 09:35 PM) *
We get 4th with our loss and Orlando win!

Got to hope SAC loses to stop the slide of their pick.

D Rock
I think we have Sacramento's pick next year too.

Hinkie really set us up.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (D Rock @ Apr 13 2017, 11:38 AM) *
I think we have Sacramento's pick next year too.

Hinkie really set us up.



We have the Sac pick in 2019

That was the gem in the trade....the right to swap pics is likely irrelevant this year if the odds hold.

That being said he also wasted picks on MCW and Okafor so I can"t laud him too much. He had the right idea at the start but needed a basketball guy to help his personnel evaluations. Taking a risk on Embid was the right move but little else has been done right under Hinkie. He is a good businessman but not anywhere close to a good GM. He was the perfect foil for the Sixers ownership. There is a reason why no one is knocking on his door to employ his genius.
nephillymike
The Sixers have a 53 % chance of getting the LAL pick, a 48% chance of getting a top 3 pick and a 15% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

I hit the draft simulator button 100 times and it gave the following picks these times:

Two picks, 46 times in my spins vs expected of 53 times

1,4 - 3
1,5 - 5
1,6- 2
2,4- 1
2,5- 6
2,6- 2
3,4- 4
3,5- 5
3,6-0
4,5- 16
4,6-0
4,7-0
5,6- 2
5,7-0
6,7-0
Single Picks, i.e. Didn't get LAL pick (54 times in my sample vs expected of 47 times)
1st - 2
2nd - 5
3rd - 8
4th - 11
5th - 22
6th - 6
7th - 0

On the mock, these 100 sims resulted in these combination of draft picks:

Monk only - 28
Tatum & Monk - 16
Ball & Monk - 12
Tatum only - 11
Fultz & Monk - 10
Ball only - 9
Jackson & Monk - 6
Jackson only - 4
Monk & Smith - 2
Fultz only - 2

By player, the number of times they are a Sixer in this draft:

Monk - 74
Tatum - 27
Ball - 21
Fultz - 12
Jackson - 10
Smith - 2
Total - 146 ( includes 46 times out of 100 that we got the LAL pick. Should actually be 53 times)

Lastly, the SAC swap came into play in only 6 times out of the 100, which seems low, but I need to look into it.

The tankathon has this ranking of the top 10 players:
1. Fultz
2. Ball
3. Jackson
4. Tatum
5. Isaac
6. Monk
7. Smith ( he recently dropped from 5th)
8. Fox
9. Ntlikina
10. Markkanen

The big news yesterday was that Brett Brown came out and said point blank, that Simmons is the point guard next year. That being the case, the selections of PG Smith went way down. Also means that SG is our top need, followed by SF.

I really hope we get the LAL pick. Not only will it be a 6-8 spot better pick than next year, it will serve to get that guy here next year and quicken the end of the process. Having that pick next year will delay it. Get the boys here now, and playoffs or bust next year!
D Rock
I see nothing to indicate the lakers will be any better than bottom 4 again next season. If their pick doesn't convey, I wont be hurt. In fact, I wonder how we would incorporate 2 top 6 picks in what will be Simmons' rookie year.

Either way, we're set moving forward.
The Franchise
The one takeaway I get from this thread is how fucked up the NBA is.
nephillymike
Here's a few questions:

Would you rather have the #1 pick and use it on Fultz

OR

Get the 4th and 5th pick and come away with Tatum & Monk or Jackson & Monk?

I think I prefer the 4th & 5th over the 1st only.
D Rock
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 15 2017, 03:51 AM) *
Here's a few questions:

Would you rather have the #1 pick and use it on Fultz

OR

Get the 4th and 5th pick and come away with Tatum & Monk or Jackson & Monk?

I think I prefer the 4th & 5th over the 1st only.

Funny you should ask. I was just reading some MORON's "fan post" over at liberty ballers who was suggesting he'd rather get Monk & Fox, than Fultz. That is some seriously moronic claptrap. Why on earth would you prefer using two roster spots to provide you the same thing you can get from one?

#1 and fultz without ANY doubt.

He's SOOOO much better than any combination you could put together from this draft. He's the total deal. Shooting off the dribble, spot up, handles, DEFENSE.

He is leaps and bounds the best player in this draft.

And as I suggested in my previous post, it'd be easier to add new young blood to this roster one at a time. Simmons hasn't played a minute. Throwing 3 brand new rookies onto this roster, right now, is not the best option. It's the consolation prize for missing out on Markel.
nephillymike
QUOTE (D Rock @ Apr 15 2017, 10:20 AM) *
Funny you should ask. I was just reading some MORON's "fan post" over at liberty ballers who was suggesting he'd rather get Monk & Fox, than Fultz. That is some seriously moronic claptrap. Why on earth would you prefer using two roster spots to provide you the same thing you can get from one?

#1 and fultz without ANY doubt.

He's SOOOO much better than any combination you could put together from this draft. He's the total deal. Shooting off the dribble, spot up, handles, DEFENSE.

He is leaps and bounds the best player in this draft.

And as I suggested in my previous post, it'd be easier to add new young blood to this roster one at a time. Simmons hasn't played a minute. Throwing 3 brand new rookies onto this roster, right now, is not the best option. It's the consolation prize for missing out on Markel.


I hear your point about three rooks at the same time. But Unlike you, I think the LAL if it's the 4th pick this year, will be a better prospect than what we get next year. I really thin that pick will be 9th at best. So it's 4th this decent draft or 9th in an iffy draft next year. I'll take the 4th this year.
Zero
Because I have little more than a superficial, provincial interest in the NBA, I thought I'd jump this thread with a Phillies post. biggrin.gif
QUOTE
The Phillies need to trade for Mike Trout. They need to package some of their prized prospects and offer them to the Angels. They need to call the next day after Anaheim laughs in GM Matt Klentak’s face and make another offer. Then another. And then another.

Like no young player before him, Trout is Philadelphia, by way of his beloved hometown in nearby Millville, N.J. Despite his fancy trappings on the West Coast, the kid belongs here.
And, we could add his growing friendship with Carson Wentz. Bank ...
D Rock
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 16 2017, 12:01 AM) *
I hear your point about three rooks at the same time. But Unlike you, I think the LAL if it's the 4th pick this year, will be a better prospect than what we get next year. I really thin that pick will be 9th at best. So it's 4th this decent draft or 9th in an iffy draft next year. I'll take the 4th this year.

You think it'll be 9th at best based on what? They will stink next year even if they get Lonzo Ball or whoever. And teams like Phoenix will be much better (booker is legit), we'll be better, Sacto will be better. The only teams "competing" with them for the cellar will be Orlando and Brooklynn. I suppose Chicago and Indiana could ship out their talent and go into tank mode, but currently no indications that'll happen.
nephillymike
QUOTE (D Rock @ Apr 16 2017, 09:36 AM) *
You think it'll be 9th at best based on what? They will stink next year even if they get Lonzo Ball or whoever. And teams like Phoenix will be much better (booker is legit), we'll be better, Sacto will be better. The only teams "competing" with them for the cellar will be Orlando and Brooklynn. I suppose Chicago and Indiana could ship out their talent and go into tank mode, but currently no indications that'll happen.

7 wins and Magic's impatience will do it. That's all they need is 7 wins.
nephillymike
Bump as it is coming up this Tuesday!!!

C'mon people, feel the love.....

1
2
3
4, 5
Sixers
10
9
8
76ers!

You can look above for the results of my 100 test spins of tankathon.

After further review:

My preferences of combinations of lottery cards, with the % of time that option came out:

1. 1st & 4th picks- 3%
2. 1st & 5th picks- 5%
3. 1st & 6th picks- 2%
4. 2nd & 4th picks-1%
5. 2nd & 5th picks-6%
6. 2nd & 6th picks- 2%
7. 1st pick only- 2%
8. 3rd & 4th picks- 4%
9. 3rd & 5th picks- 5%
10. 4th & 5th picks- 16%

These cover my top 45% of the chances. Hopefully we land one of these 10.

I hear D's concern about assimilating two rookies with Simmons first year, but I just think LAL are 7 wins better next year, which makes that the 9th pick next year instead of a likely 4th or 5th if conveyed this year. Also having the extra pick asset now, allows us trade currency if we want to get a veteran at a position of need.

Should be fun.

Tune in 8:00 Eastern Tuesday night.

1,2,3,4,5 Sixers
10,9,8 76ers!


D Rock
For me, best case scenario tonight would see us get the top pick and push the LA pick into next year. Say what you will about LA potentially improving next season (I don't see it), but in a tough western conference, they're pretty much still a lock for the lottery in 2018. For us to have a lottery pick while being a playoff team will be a big win.

Next best case is us sitting at 1 & 4.

Obviously, worst case for us would be a lone pick at #6. Although even there, I think we could land Monk (which wouldn't be a bad situation at all).

My favorite players (in order of how I see them fit this team)

Fultz
Monk
Isaac
Jackson
Fox
Ball
Markannen
nephillymike
Only the third pick.

A little disappointing.

Would have been nice to have the extra draft pick to use or trade.

LAL pick won't be that high next year. Magic has Ball and his hunger to win will get them too many wins for it to be a prime pick.

The SAC swap got us the 3rd instead of the 5th, so we get a Jackson or Tatum instead of Monk or Fox. Not sure if that helps that much.

And we just lost more ground to BOS, that team just as bad as us a few years ago, but didn't pull a full tank.

Oh well, with Philly luck, we could have got stuck with just the 6th pick.

Playoffs or bust. Will be refreshing change.
Joegrane
Definitely nice that the Sac pic saved the day but disappointing that Bos got #1. I also really wanted that second pick this year; however maybe it works out for the best. If Embiid's health continues to be a problem, they may have to use the pick on a center.

We talked about the Eagles picking players who are "Philly guys." My impression is that Jackson would be such a player for the Sixers and fill a need.
http://www.nbadraft.net/players/josh-jackson

QUOTE (nephillymike @ May 16 2017, 08:10 PM) *
Only the third pick.

A little disappointing.

Would have been nice to have the extra draft pick to use or trade.

LAL pick won't be that high next year. Magic has Ball and his hunger to win will get them too many wins for it to be a prime pick.

The SAC swap got us the 3rd instead of the 5th, so we get a Jackson or Tatum instead of Monk or Fox. Not sure if that helps that much.

And we just lost more ground to BOS, that team just as bad as us a few years ago, but didn't pull a full tank.

Oh well, with Philly luck, we could have got stuck with just the 6th pick.

Playoffs or bust. Will be refreshing change.
D Rock
Boston has a real conundrum. I'll be rooting for Isaiah Thomas to shine in the next round(s).

I bet they trade the pick for Butler or George.

My list assuming Fultz and Ball go 1-2.

Josh Jackson
Malik Monk
Jonathan Isaac

I'll be straight up pissed if they go Taytum.
D Rock
I'm offering a package that includes #3 this year, LAs 1st rounder next year (Lottery Pick without a doubt, despite Mikey's concerns), Jahlil, & Dario to the Celts for #1.

They'll likely end up trading it for Paul George or Jimmy Butler. One thing is sure, they don't need Fultz and hurt their post season chances this year as long as IT assumes that's their pick.

One can hope right?

Assuming we pick 3rd....

My "UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES" guys are Tatum and DSJ. I don't buy either of those guys games. They each lack explosive athetecism, defense and jumpers.

We need shooting, shooting, and more shooting. But as much as I LOVE Monk, 3 is too high.

For that reason, I go hard after JJ Reddick in free agency. We can afford to give him a 4 year max money contract and he's a career 44% shooter from range.

Having solved the glaring need for shooting, I look for greatest upside that fits with Embiid, and Simmons as primary ball handler.

That list starts with Josh Jackson and ends with Jonathan Isaac.

So the lottery has told me, our path forward is Reddick and Jackson/Isaac.

nephillymike
QUOTE (D Rock @ May 17 2017, 02:12 PM) *
I'm offering a package that includes #3 this year, LAs 1st rounder next year (Lottery Pick without a doubt, despite Mikey's concerns), Jahlil, & Dario to the Celts for #1.

They'll likely end up trading it for Paul George or Jimmy Butler. One thing is sure, they don't need Fultz and hurt their post season chances this year as long as IT assumes that's their pick.

One can hope right?

Assuming we pick 3rd....

My "UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES" guys are Tatum and DSJ. I don't buy either of those guys games. They each lack explosive athetecism, defense and jumpers.

We need shooting, shooting, and more shooting. But as much as I LOVE Monk, 3 is too high.

For that reason, I go hard after JJ Reddick in free agency. We can afford to give him a 4 year max money contract and he's a career 44% shooter from range.

Having solved the glaring need for shooting, I look for greatest upside that fits with Embiid, and Simmons as primary ball handler.

That list starts with Josh Jackson and ends with Jonathan Isaac.

So the lottery has told me, our path forward is Reddick and Jackson/Isaac.


I like the Reddick possibility, and if we got him, I'd be fine with Jackson. All the talk I heard today was Z Jackson vs Tatum. I'd say 60-65% preferred Jackson. Not much traction at all for Isaac, with a little bit about Monk.

Not definite that Reddick comes here. We need a plan B,C,D for a shooting guard.
D Rock
Being in LA, I'm privy to the local news fact that JJ wants out of the clip show. He's never had a max contract, and I think his next destination will be a choice based on the fiscal side of the equation. I think we'd have as good a shot as any for his services.

It's going to be very interesting to watch what the celts do. I'd bet they're open to trading the pick. I would ALSO bet that Sam Hinkie could've brokered a 3 team deal that would send our assets (picks present & future, Dario, Jahlil) to Chicago, Butler to Boston, and Fultz to Philly. That's the dream.

I'd be happy with Monk, although I can't help but think 3 is too high. I'd take him in a second at 5. As I said, the only guys I want nothing to do with are Tatum and DSJ, which is to say... "Colangelo must LOVE them."
Joegrane
I don't want them to sign the big free agent this year and doubt that one would want to come here now.

Allow the weak SG spot to keep their Win total down and allow for a better draft pick next year.

Let's get our SF--Jackson--this year and work on his shooting mechanics.

Then this coming season show that Embiid and Simmons can stay healthy.

Let Simmons show what he can do and the role he will have going forward. This will affect the type of PG they go with over the long term.

Show prospective FAs that there is a good, young playoff-caliber nucleus here.

Then attract the big-time FA SG or combo G after next season and fill in some holes and depth with LA's high lottery pick and the Sixer's mid 1st round pick.

QUOTE (nephillymike @ May 17 2017, 06:52 PM) *
I like the Reddick possibility, and if we got him, I'd be fine with Jackson. All the talk I heard today was Z Jackson vs Tatum. I'd say 60-65% preferred Jackson. Not much traction at all for Isaac, with a little bit about Monk.

Not definite that Reddick comes here. We need a plan B,C,D for a shooting guard.


Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ May 17 2017, 07:52 PM) *
I like the Reddick possibility, and if we got him, I'd be fine with Jackson. All the talk I heard today was Z Jackson vs Tatum. I'd say 60-65% preferred Jackson. Not much traction at all for Isaac, with a little bit about Monk.

Not definite that Reddick comes here. We need a plan B,C,D for a shooting guard.


Getting Reddick would be fantastic...I have to giggle at the "trade Dario" idea, talk about silly.

They will get either Fox, Fultz or Monk and any of those would be great. I can't see them taking another SF who can't shoot like Josh Jackson.

Hoping for Reddick in a big way.
nephillymike
QUOTE (D Rock @ May 17 2017, 02:12 PM) *
I'm offering a package that includes #3 this year, LAs 1st rounder next year (Lottery Pick without a doubt, despite Mikey's concerns), Jahlil, & Dario to the Celts for #1.

They'll likely end up trading it for Paul George or Jimmy Butler. One thing is sure, they don't need Fultz and hurt their post season chances this year as long as IT assumes that's their pick.

One can hope right?

Assuming we pick 3rd....

My "UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES" guys are Tatum and DSJ. I don't buy either of those guys games. They each lack explosive athetecism, defense and jumpers.

We need shooting, shooting, and more shooting. But as much as I LOVE Monk, 3 is too high.

For that reason, I go hard after JJ Reddick in free agency. We can afford to give him a 4 year max money contract and he's a career 44% shooter from range.

Having solved the glaring need for shooting, I look for greatest upside that fits with Embiid, and Simmons as primary ball handler.

That list starts with Josh Jackson and ends with Jonathan Isaac.

So the lottery has told me, our path forward is Reddick and Jackson/Isaac.


Dario and the LAL pick next year, plus Okafor throw in, to move up two spots?

No thanks.

Fultz is not that much better of a prospect than whoever we get at three. The thing is, he's a better position fit, but as you suggest, we can get our position fit through FA.

I wonder what value Okafor has. Is he worth a ten spot move up from our highest 2nd rounder, to a low first? I doubt it. I'm thinking maybe a ten spot move up from low 2nd to mid 2nd, which is pretty close to worthless.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ May 18 2017, 06:13 AM) *
Dario and the LAL pick next year, plus Okafor throw in, to move up two spots?

No thanks.

Fultz is not that much better of a prospect than whoever we get at three. The thing is, he's a better position fit, but as you suggest, we can get our position fit through FA.

I wonder what value Okafor has. Is he worth a ten spot move up from our highest 2nd rounder, to a low first? I doubt it. I'm thinking maybe a ten spot move up from low 2nd to mid 2nd, which is pretty close to worthless.


Agreed...Dario, in his first NBA season was a great fit with Embid but also a terrific fit overall, a better first year than anyone could have hoped for that has a clue about NBA basketball. I fear that Okafor has little or no trade value at this point. I wonder if he has gotten surgery to fix his knee? He is a glaring example of why the Hinkie experiment had to end.

By the way...did you look at the Holmes/Noel end of season numbers? And to think some local "experts" balked at trading Noel instead of paying him a fortune......lol...
Joegrane
RF I'd be interested in those numbers on Holmes vs Noel. I think you shared some previously.

Does Holmes' numbers on O offset Noel's D, esp shooting % against?

QUOTE (Reality Fan @ May 18 2017, 07:29 AM) *
Agreed...Dario, in his first NBA season was a great fit with Embid but also a terrific fit overall, a better first year than anyone could have hoped for that has a clue about NBA basketball. I fear that Okafor has little or no trade value at this point. I wonder if he has gotten surgery to fix his knee? He is a glaring example of why the Hinkie experiment had to end.

By the way...did you look at the Holmes/Noel end of season numbers? And to think some local "experts" balked at trading Noel instead of paying him a fortune......lol...

D Rock
You guys are fooling yourself if you think Dario is anything more than a roll player. His ceiling on a championship quality team is "decent 6th man."

He lacks the athleticism to be a quality starter on a quality team. Too slow to defend, too little hops to consistently create his own shot, and speaking of shot... it's got a long way to go with his range requiring the ball on a completely flat trajectory (read: zero arch) just to reach the iron.

Dario seems like a great kid. Love all the hustle. But Pete Rose couldn't be an NBA All Star either.

Dario's value around the league will never be higher than it is right now. How many times do YOU have to learn the Jahlil lesson?
D Rock
Mark my words, Joegrane....

We are not shooting for "keeping the win total down" to improve our own natural draft pick in 2018.

The winning starts now.

JJ Reddick (according to what I'm reading here in L.A.) has 4 suitors for his services. The Clippers, Nets, Knicks, & Sixers.

He wants out of L.A. per his own words.

I don't know how much NBA basketball you watched this year, but the impression I've gotten (I watch a ton, because I dig it) is that EVERYONE around the league is intreagued by Joel and Simmons. Philly is no longer a non-starter as a potential destination. With the perception of having turned the corner, the obvious potential of the current talent, a great city, and the most cap room in the league, it's not a tough sell for the 2017/18 season.

The Process might not be over, but the tanking sure as hell is.
D Rock
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ May 18 2017, 01:29 PM) *
Agreed...Dario, in his first NBA season was a great fit with Embid but also a terrific fit overall, a better first year than anyone could have hoped for that has a clue about NBA basketball. I fear that Okafor has little or no trade value at this point. I wonder if he has gotten surgery to fix his knee? He is a glaring example of why the Hinkie experiment had to end.

By the way...did you look at the Holmes/Noel end of season numbers? And to think some local "experts" balked at trading Noel instead of paying him a fortune......lol...

Dario was a "great fit" with Embiid?

Funny. They rarely played together. Dario came off the bench until Joel was shut down.

Joel played most of his minutes with Ersan.
D Rock
QUOTE (nephillymike @ May 18 2017, 11:13 AM) *
Dario and the LAL pick next year, plus Okafor throw in, to move up two spots?

No thanks.

Fultz is not that much better of a prospect than whoever we get at three. The thing is, he's a better position fit, but as you suggest, we can get our position fit through FA.

I wonder what value Okafor has. Is he worth a ten spot move up from our highest 2nd rounder, to a low first? I doubt it. I'm thinking maybe a ten spot move up from low 2nd to mid 2nd, which is pretty close to worthless.

I disagree. Fultz IS that much better than anyone we could/will get at three. Fultz is at a level all his own. The drop off from him, to Ball et al is massive.

As for how much "value" Okafor has... It's pretty much ZERO. Colangelo should have shopped him right after the rookie year, bum knee and all. We'll not get a package as good as that which we got for Noel. He's a bum. Garbage. A dinosaur who's game doesn't fit today's association. (Similar to Tatum) - Also: see Dario in 2 seasons. His "old school" game and physical limitations will render him a roll player.

I would move heaven and earth to get to Fultz, with only Embiid and Simmons being off the table.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (Joegrane @ May 18 2017, 11:11 AM) *
RF I'd be interested in those numbers on Holmes vs Noel. I think you shared some previously.

Does Holmes' numbers on O offset Noel's D, esp shooting % against?


Nerlens Noel per game stats 2017
20.5 mpg 8.7 ppg 5.8 rpg 1 blk 1 assist

Holmes
20.9 mpg 9.8 ppg 5.5 rpg 1 blk 1 assist

Stunning that some here who think they are in the know about basketball actually wanted to pay Noel 17 million per.

for advanced metric fans

VORP
Noel 1.4
Holmes 1.1

TOV% (turnovers per 100 touches)
Noel 12.5
Holmes 10.7

all numbers 2016-2017 year and for perspective, Noel is a 4th year player and Holmes a 2nd year player who only logged 702 minutes as a rookie. (Noel had 2311 as a rookie)
D Rock
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ May 18 2017, 04:42 PM) *
Nerlens Noel per game stats 2017
20.5 mpg 8.7 ppg 5.8 rpg 1 blk 1 assist

Holmes
20.9 mpg 9.8 ppg 5.5 rpg 1 blk 1 assist

Stunning that some here who think they are in the know about basketball actually wanted to pay Noel 17 million per.

for advanced metric fans

VORP
Noel 1.4
Holmes 1.1

TOV% (turnovers per 100 touches)
Noel 12.5
Holmes 10.7

all numbers 2016-2017 year and for perspective, Noel is a 4th year player and Holmes a 2nd year player who only logged 702 minutes as a rookie. (Noel had 2311 as a rookie)

I can admit I over valued Noel. But most of my frustration with his trade was simply that it didn't include Okafor. At least Noel had something to offer on the court. Jahlil is a straight-up bum.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (D Rock @ May 18 2017, 11:15 AM) *
You guys are fooling yourself if you think Dario is anything more than a roll player. His ceiling on a championship quality team is "decent 6th man."

He lacks the athleticism to be a quality starter on a quality team. Too slow to defend, too little hops to consistently create his own shot, and speaking of shot... it's got a long way to go with his range requiring the ball on a completely flat trajectory (read: zero arch) just to reach the iron.

Dario seems like a great kid. Love all the hustle. But Pete Rose couldn't be an NBA All Star either.

Dario's value around the league will never be higher than it is right now. How many times do YOU have to learn the Jahlil lesson?


He lacks athleticism...much like Tony Kukoc...and no one said he was a star player as in the lead but he is much more than a 6th man. Starting in game 57 where he became a regular starter he had 3 games where he was not in double figures

How you compare Saric to Okafor is mind boggling.
D Rock
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ May 18 2017, 04:48 PM) *
How you compare Saric to Okafor is mind boggling.

Jahlil averaged 18 and 7 as rookie. Dario?

Both physically limited players who were forced to over contribute on a bad, under-manned team.

Thinking that Dario will duplicate his rookie production in year 2 is TRULY mind boggling.

I will grant you this... At least you can always count on Dario to try. That alone sets him well above Jahlil. My point is, that's not enought to render him untouchable in our effort to build a championship team. Dario's perceived value will never be higher than it is right now. That much is certain.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (D Rock @ May 18 2017, 11:26 AM) *
Dario was a "great fit" with Embiid?

Funny. They rarely played together. Dario came off the bench until Joel was shut down.

Joel played most of his minutes with Ersan.


Lol...odd...Ersan was the guy in front of Saric so they rarely saw the court at the same time..one of the biggest reasons they traded Ersan away was to clear playing time for Saric...are you sure you watched the Sixers?
http://thesixersense.com/2017/02/24/dario-...ilyasova-trade/

Or this Brown quote:
Perhaps Brown was being a little forthcoming last week when he said: "I think a backup four-man to Dario (Saric). How can we all not see what Ersan Ilyasova and Dario Saric provided as two legitimate stretch fours?"

What is shocking is that Saric, who just got better as the year went on and was far better than expected as a rookie, is that he did so having to play with guys like Splitter and Long playing the 5 to spell Holmes.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (D Rock @ May 18 2017, 11:52 AM) *
Jahlil averaged 18 and 7 as rookie. Dario?

Both physically limited players who were forced to over contribute on a bad, under-manned team.

Thinking that Dario will duplicate his rookie production in year 2 is TRULY mind boggling.

I will grant you this... At least you can always count on Dario to try. That alone sets him well above Jahlil. My point is, that's not enought to render him untouchable in our effort to build a championship team.


They tried to run their offense through Okafor as a rookie, no one disputes he can score. It is the rest of his game that is sorely lacking.

But how is it mind boggiling to think that Saric will not progress as a 2nd year player? He improved as the season went on but somehow, now accustomed to the NBA, he will regress? That is logical?

I don't think he should be untouchable but I don't think you trade him in a package, particularly the ones proposed. He is too good for that. I think you grossly overstate his physical limitations.
D Rock
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ May 18 2017, 04:55 PM) *
Lol...odd...Ersan was the guy in front of Saric so they rarely saw the court at the same time..one of the biggest reasons they traded Ersan away was to clear playing time for Saric...are you sure you watched the Sixers?
http://thesixersense.com/2017/02/24/dario-...ilyasova-trade/

Or this Brown quote:
Perhaps Brown was being a little forthcoming last week when he said: "I think a backup four-man to Dario (Saric). How can we all not see what Ersan Ilyasova and Dario Saric provided as two legitimate stretch fours?"

What is shocking is that Saric, who just got better as the year went on and was far better than expected as a rookie, is that he did so having to play with guys like Splitter and Long playing the 5 to spell Holmes.

Uh, yeah. I'm aware of the timeline and what Brown said.

Still, if you watched this team at all.... you'd realize you have to watch what they do, not what they say.

They traded Ersan, not to get Dario minutes. They traded Ersan because Joel was done, Ersan at the end of his contract, and the tank was on...

LOL - Indeed.
D Rock
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ May 18 2017, 04:59 PM) *
They tried to run their offense through Okafor as a rookie, no one disputes he can score. It is the rest of his game that is sorely lacking.

But how is it mind boggiling to think that Saric will not progress as a 2nd year player? He improved as the season went on but somehow, now accustomed to the NBA, he will regress? That is logical?

I don't think he should be untouchable but I don't think you trade him in a package, particularly the ones proposed. He is too good for that. I think you grossly overstate his physical limitations.

Dario's numbers will drop in every category in year two.

Book it.

Are you unfamiliar with the concept of a player having inflated numbers on a bad team?
D Rock
Regarding Dario's athleticism.

If you go 6'10" and your game is still "below the rim," you lack athleticism.

Just sayin.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (D Rock @ May 18 2017, 12:02 PM) *
Dario's numbers will drop in every category in year two.

Book it.

Are you unfamiliar with the concept of a player having inflated numbers on a bad team?


I am quite aware....and when that player is the focus of that team I get it but if you watched the Sixers and felt that Saric was the focus on their offense than I think you are very mistaken.

That would be a terrific bet....particularly with a point forward that can distribute
D Rock
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ May 18 2017, 05:07 PM) *
I am quite aware....and when that player is the focus of that team I get it but if you watched the Sixers and felt that Saric was the focus on their offense than I think you are very mistaken.

That would be a terrific bet....particularly with a point forward that can distribute

I saw between 75 & 80 of the Sixers games this year.

After Embiid was shut down, and Ersan shipped off, they most certainly ran the offense through Dario. The only other ball handlers were TJ, and Sauce.

Do we have a bet? I'm saying Dario's numbers will drop in year 2. You say they improve. On the line is simple bragging rights.

Don't get me wrong. I loved watching Dario this season. I'm a fan. I just think you guys over-estimate his ceiling and his value going forward.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (D Rock @ May 18 2017, 11:59 AM) *
Uh, yeah. I'm aware of the timeline and what Brown said.

Still, if you watched this team at all.... you'd realize you have to watch what they do, not what they say.

They traded Ersan, not to get Dario minutes. They traded Ersan because Joel was done, Ersan at the end of his contract, and the tank was on...

LOL - Indeed.



Odd that the both Keith Pompey and Bob Cooney, the 2 highly respected Sixer beat writers both have written that the primary reason for the trade was to free up minutes for Saric since he had progressed so much as a rookie. They both also want Ersan back to back up Saric. I agree it made it convenient to continue the tank with the trade and that was also a consideration.

I did watch the Sixers, I am a glutton for punishment, and it was painfully obvious that Saric would not get his minutes with Ersan on the team but Ersan's age vs. Saric made sense for the trade. They are the same player at this point with the difference being that Ersan is who he is while Saric is just getting started and has a much higher ceiling. The reason Saric got so many starts was that Ersan was gone.

Bob Cooney is a huge fan of bringing back Ersan, by the way and I can't say I disagree.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (D Rock @ May 18 2017, 12:10 PM) *
I saw between 75 & 80 of the Sixers games this year.

After Embiid was shut down, and Ersan shipped off, they most certainly ran the offense through Dario. The only other ball handlers were TJ, and Sauce.

Do we have a bet? I'm saying Dario's numbers will drop in year 2. You say they improve. On the line is simple bragging rights.

Don't get me wrong. I loved watching Dario this season. I'm a fan. I just think you guys over-estimate his ceiling and his value going forward.


We have a bet....I don't think he is going to drop 20 per game but he is going to be a stud 3rd option that can pass and defend the 4. His shooting is only going to improve.
D Rock
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ May 18 2017, 05:17 PM) *
We have a bet....I don't think he is going to drop 20 per game but he is going to be a stud 3rd option that can pass and defend the 4. His shooting is only going to improve.

His shooting better improve. That flat long ball is UGLY. tongue.gif

While I think it reasonable to expect him to improve his skill set across the board, I think his numbers will ultimately fall with his minutes.

Again, he didn't start and get significant mins. until Joel was shut down and Ersan sent away. With Joel's return, Simmons starting, and the inevitable free agent acquisitions, I don't see him seeing the floor as much as he did the last half of 16/17.

Again, I'm a fan. I love "try-hard" guys. I love TJ is the same way. But as good as they both played, any team that's giving them starters minutes, ultimately isn't a good team.
D Rock
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ May 18 2017, 05:15 PM) *
Odd that the both Keith Pompey and Bob Cooney, the 2 highly respected Sixer beat writers both have written that the primary reason for the trade was to free up minutes for Saric since he had progressed so much as a rookie. They both also want Ersan back to back up Saric. I agree it made it convenient to continue the tank with the trade and that was also a consideration.

I did watch the Sixers, I am a glutton for punishment, and it was painfully obvious that Saric would not get his minutes with Ersan on the team but Ersan's age vs. Saric made sense for the trade. They are the same player at this point with the difference being that Ersan is who he is while Saric is just getting started and has a much higher ceiling. The reason Saric got so many starts was that Ersan was gone.

Bob Cooney is a huge fan of bringing back Ersan, by the way and I can't say I disagree.

I totally agree with bringing Ersan back. I hated that we let him go. That we did, and when we did it, lend credence to the idea that he was sent away because Jojo wasn't going to be playing, the playoff talk in January (where they went 10 - 5) went up in smoke, and it was time to tank.

If you want to give Dario more mins, you don't have to lose Ersan. There's no mins clause in most NBA contracts. Brown plays who Brown wants to play. Colangelo seemingly chose to exchange a few extra wins for draft position, and a 2nd round draft pick (or was it 2?).
This is a "lo-fi" version of our main content. To view the full version with more information, formatting and images, please click here.
Invision Power Board © 2001-2017 Invision Power Services, Inc.