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nephillymike
I've been hearing that the salary escalation in FA wasn't near what people feared it would be. Some have hinted that there was a drop in the money FA's were getting this year. With all that cap room, how could this be?

The fact that Jeffery got only 9.5M charged to the cap, Pryor got very little, gave me the impetus to spend a few post Villanova victory minutes checking it out. Short on time, I figured the quick and easiest way was to compare last year's guarantees for the top ten FA's with this year's guarantees for the top ten FA's. To look at all the fine details would be tough to do in a little time. Also, guaranteed money is a relevant stat in that it is the REAL money the day the contract is signed.

You can go here and sort the FA contracts in descending order of guaranteed money for 2017, and then change the year at the top and do the same thing for last year.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/

Here are the findings:

Total guaranteed money of the top 10 FA's (based on guaranteed money) in:

2017 = 263.5M
2016 = 329.1M
Decrease = 65.6M
% Drop = 20.0%!!!

Now to look at whether there were outliers causing the drop, I compared the top FA last year vs the top this year and so on all the way down to the 10th in each year and discovered that in EVERY SPOT on the top 10 FA's, the FA's in 2016 made more guaranteed money than those did this year. Every spot.

Even for me, someone who thought things would go up a little, not the catastrophic increases others feared, this is a shock. Whatever the reason, it is a welcome development in Philly!!
Pila
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 11 2017, 03:40 AM) *
I've been hearing that the salary escalation in FA wasn't near what people feared it would be. Some have hinted that there was a drop in the money FA's were getting this year. With all that cap room, how could this be?

The fact that Jeffery got only 9.5M charged to the cap, Pryor got very little, gave me the impetus to spend a few post Villanova victory minutes checking it out. Short on time, I figured the quick and easiest way was to compare last year's guarantees for the top ten FA's with this year's guarantees for the top ten FA's. To look at all the fine details would be tough to do in a little time. Also, guaranteed money is a relevant stat in that it is the REAL money the day the contract is signed.

You can go here and sort the FA contracts in descending order of guaranteed money for 2017, and then change the year at the top and do the same thing for last year.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/

Here are the findings:

Total guaranteed money of the top 10 FA's (based on guaranteed money) in:

2017 = 263.5M
2016 = 329.1M
Decrease = 65.6M
% Drop = 20.0%!!!

Now to look at whether there were outliers causing the drop, I compared the top FA last year vs the top this year and so on all the way down to the 10th in each year and discovered that in EVERY SPOT on the top 10 FA's, the FA's in 2016 made more guaranteed money than those did this year. Every spot.

Even for me, someone who thought things would go up a little, not the catastrophic increases others feared, this is a shock. Whatever the reason, it is a welcome development in Philly!!

Maybe it's simply a case of teams doing a better job securing premier talent, thus a drop in overall available talent up for bidding.

We'll need more than one offseason to determine a trend.

P.s. either way, good post. Your willingness to put in the work is appreciated.
Joegrane
Every one...Hmm, maybe we'll be hearing more of the word collusion.

It is not that I'm critical of the current situation. The amount of unearned $ some athletes make is ridiculous. It is bad for sports and a horrible example to young people about the real world--unless you are in corrupt, self-serving politics : ( Ryan Howard's former deal comes to mind as an example, even though, for a time, he was a great player.

Thank you for crunching those #s

QUOTE (Pila @ Mar 10 2017, 10:46 PM) *
Maybe it's simply a case of teams doing a better job securing premier talent, thus a drop in overall available talent up for bidding.

We'll need more than one offseason to determine a trend.

P.s. either way, good post. Your willingness to put in the work is appreciated.

nephillymike
RF?
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 11 2017, 04:07 PM) *
RF?


I would have to look at who the WRs were in each year.....Jackson got paid....Jeffries got paid,....Garcon got paid....even Britt got paid.

Jeffries was the only guy who was a number 1 proven type.....most guys are older number 2 types.

In 16 the top ten FA wr got a little over 66 million in guaranteed money....or thereabouts
in 17 they got 102 million or thereabout

Did not exactly align with your spotrac projections...lol

As far as the other spots? The big drop is at CB because there are not many coming free, last year there was a bonanza. It is still early.

nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 11 2017, 04:21 PM) *
I would have to look at who the WRs were in each year.....Jackson got paid....Jeffries got paid,....Garcon got paid....even Britt got paid.

Jeffries was the only guy who was a number 1 proven type.....most guys are older number 2 types.

In 16 the top ten FA wr got a little over 66 million in guaranteed money....or thereabouts
in 17 they got 102 million or thereabout

Did not exactly align with your spotrac projections...lol

As far as the other spots? The big drop is at CB because there are not many coming free, last year there was a bonanza. It is still early.


Your fear was that with all the cap room in the league that offers to free agents would sky rocket. They did not. Maybe a specific position may have bucked the trend, but the big picture is the big picture. Guarantees in offers are way down. 20% and ten out of the top ten all decreased.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 11 2017, 09:24 PM) *
Your fear was that with all the cap room in the league that offers to free agents would sky rocket. They did not. Maybe a specific position may have bucked the trend, but the big picture is the big picture. Guarantees in offers are way down. 20% and ten out of the top ten all decreased.


Mikey....you crack me up...I was very clear...my concern was with the 2 most important positions the Eagles needed....WR which the money did skyrocket....and the CB market is already going strong and we are just a few days in...
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 12 2017, 06:40 PM) *
Mikey....you crack me up...I was very clear...my concern was with the 2 most important positions the Eagles needed....WR which the money did skyrocket....and the CB market is already going strong and we are just a few days in...


Me cracking you up cracks me up:

By taking the 8 contracts for CB and 11 for WR with guarantees signed this year and compare it to last year's top 8 and 11 respectively we get:

Year.........CB.........WR.......Total
2017......98M.......104M....202M
2016.....136M.......67M.....203M

So, combined, the two positions you were concerned with had a DECREASE of 1M or .5%.

duel.gif
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 12 2017, 09:48 PM) *
Me cracking you up cracks me up:

By taking the 8 contracts for CB and 11 for WR with guarantees signed this year and compare it to last year's top 8 and 11 respectively we get:

Year.........CB.........WR.......Total
2017......98M.......104M....202M
2016.....136M.......67M.....203M

So, combined, the two positions you were concerned with had a DECREASE of 1M or .5%.

duel.gif


Is FA just starting or is it over already?

See how that works?.....lol
On one hand you look at a complete offseason and the other is less than a week old....
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 12 2017, 08:49 PM) *
Is FA just starting or is it over already?

See how that works?.....lol
On one hand you look at a complete offseason and the other is less than a week old....



True. But not likely to become anywhere near the feared increase.

There is a reason for this, I believe.

Hint:

If you read the fine print of other details posted in another detailed thread and put 2 and 2 together, you will find the answer!!
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 12 2017, 09:54 PM) *
True. But not likely to become anywhere near the feared increase.

There is a reason for this, I believe.

Hint:

If you read the fine print of other details posted in another detailed thread and put 2 and 2 together, you will find the answer!!



You are right...there is a reason for this.....it is called "there are still most of the FA out there yet to sign"...a pretty big reason
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 12 2017, 08:57 PM) *
You are right...there is a reason for this.....it is called "there are still most of the FA out there yet to sign"...a pretty big reason


Besides that, there is another reason, I believe.

It's in the details.

Two scoobie snacks if you find it.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 12 2017, 10:03 PM) *
Besides that, there is another reason, I believe.

It's in the details.

Two scoobie snacks if you find it.


Why would I go searching for a straw argument when the simple reason is obvious....we can discuss this when camp starts and see what these numbers look like
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 12 2017, 10:03 PM) *
Besides that, there is another reason, I believe.

It's in the details.

Two scoobie snacks if you find it.


hmmmm..160 million in guaranteed money handed out over the last 2 days......who knew?...lol
Reality Fan
Mikey...I will update the numbers periodically and do so evenly unlike your 8 and 11 to make it simple...I will also do an aggregate as the market plays itself out...

WR
2016 Guaranteed money
73.5 million
2017 Guaranteed money
109.25 million

currently a 48.5% increase

CB
2016 Guaranteed money
146.35 million
2017 Guaranteed money
118.55 million

roughly a 19% decrease

There was no elite CB available in 2017 whereas Norman and Jenkins both were available in 2016. That accounted for 12 million in less money for the top 2. There are several names out there that will likely close the gap but none that are likely to even out the CB position. There is less high end talent available at the CB position.
nephillymike
When I read your concerns in my original post, I took it as you were saying FA's signings would be tough because of the expected increases in the deals they would get this year with all of the cap available.

If you meant in only for CB's and WR's then I misunderstood your point. I thought it was the entire market you were referring to as my original post in that thread was about the entire Fa market.

If you get the chance and you are updating the numbers, please compare how the top FA's as a whole compare to the top FA as a whole last year.

It would be interesting if it did go up or not.

Your point about FA not being over is a valid one, but it will be interesting to see how it turns out.

The plethora of one year deals is surprising to me.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 15 2017, 06:32 PM) *
When I read your concerns in my original post, I took it as you were saying FA's signings would be tough because of the expected increases in the deals they would get this year with all of the cap available.

If you meant in only for CB's and WR's then I misunderstood your point. I thought it was the entire market you were referring to as my original post in that thread was about the entire Fa market.

If you get the chance and you are updating the numbers, please compare how the top FA's as a whole compare to the top FA as a whole last year.

It would be interesting if it did go up or not.

Your point about FA not being over is a valid one, but it will be interesting to see how it turns out.

The plethora of one year deals is surprising to me.



I am surprised at the one year deals.....when you go position by position a lot has to do with what marquis players are available at those spots. Currently the guaranteed money for the top ten is trailing by about 12%. I was only concerned about those 2 spots because they were positions of need by the Eagles and 2 spots coveted by most if not all teams.

The current numbers are:
2016 - 329 million
2017 - 288 million

That is strictly guaranteed money per Spotrac
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 15 2017, 06:05 PM) *
I am surprised at the one year deals.....when you go position by position a lot has to do with what marquis players are available at those spots. Currently the guaranteed money for the top ten is trailing by about 12%. I was only concerned about those 2 spots because they were positions of need by the Eagles and 2 spots coveted by most if not all teams.

The current numbers are:
2016 - 329 million
2017 - 288 million

That is strictly guaranteed money per Spotrac

BTW, the answer to my why is this happening question:

The CBA breaks the spend periods into two, four year periods, 2013-2016 and 2017-2020. The 95% league wide floor spending and the 89% team specific floors are all calculated over those periods. Any cumulative under spending at the end of those periods has to be paid back to the players. My suspicion is that teams were more generous with the contracts in 2016 to avoid paybacks dictated by the floors. The had to get the spending in before the end of the day of reckoning. 2017 is the beginning of the new four year period, hence no sense of urgency to spend. Teams can make up for any shortfall over the next three years. Just a strong hunch on my part.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 15 2017, 07:40 PM) *
BTW, the answer to my why is this happening question:

The CBA breaks the spend periods into two, four year periods, 2013-2016 and 2017-2020. The 95% league wide floor spending and the 89% team specific floors are all calculated over those periods. Any cumulative under spending at the end of those periods has to be paid back to the players. My suspicion is that teams were more generous with the contracts in 2016 to avoid paybacks dictated by the floors. The had to get the spending in before the end of the day of reckoning. 2017 is the beginning of the new four year period, hence no sense of urgency to spend. Teams can make up for any shortfall over the next three years. Just a strong hunch on my part.


You would still be incorrect using the Spotrac website

In 2016 the total for all signed FAs (all types) was just under 960 million in guaranteed money and they are already at 917 million in guaranteed money for 2017. So they will likely pass what you imply was a bonanza.
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