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nephillymike
I'm I to take from his silence that MD has given up the habit?? JCuz, that parlay got you once bitten twice shy??

Well, looking at the card this week, I see a ton of big dogs:

Hou +17.5 @Indy
Min +10 @ NYG
SF +13 @ Chi

However, after looking at the numbers, SF and Hou are realy worse than that and prolly deserve more points!! I know there is the post NE let down factor but I just can't do it. Who is Chi to be 13 pts over anyone? I can't go with SF.

I'm considering a small play on Min +10. Brad Johnson has settled things down and NYG are due for a clunker.

My play of the day is TB +1 at home vs. Was. TB has the bigger point and yard differential and their at home. I'll try to get my LaBatts back this week.

I was going to jump on NE -3 @ Mia. But Miami's stats are surprisingly middle of the road while NE's is also and their on the road so I'm ignoring this one. Can't bet against Gus Frerotte now can I? Really NE should kill them but the numbers don't support it. Staying away.
md717
Man, I don't know. Min +10? I wouldn't consider taking NYG -10 b/c I can't put myself in the emotional position of rooting for NYG in the least way. Having said that, they're at home and they're for real. MIN is neither.

I like DEN -3 over OAK, GB +9 vs. ATL (I don't think Vick can string two games together w/ a passer rating over 50 blah.gif ), and PIT -7 over CLE. If I were going to do anything this week it'd be an admittedly desperate parlay of all 3, trying to turn little $$ into big $$. hehe.

On the Wingheads Wagerline contest I took HOU/IND over 44.5; DEN -3; SEA -6.5; SEA/STL over 51; IND -17.

But I'm 2nd to last out of 9 participants. Even EYRIE is beating me . . . what does THAT tell you? blah.gif
Eyrie
QUOTE (md717 @ Nov 13 2005, 03:37 PM)
On the Wingheads Wagerline contest I took HOU/IND over 44.5; DEN -3; SEA -6.5; SEA/STL over 51; IND -17.

But I'm 2nd to last out of 9 participants. Even EYRIE is beating me . . . what does THAT tell you? blah.gif

That I wait for your picks and then choose the opposite? blah.gif I'm 23-22-0 for a -120 balance.

This week I took Pittsburgh -7.5 vs Cleveland, Seattle -6.5 (oops) vs St Louis, Jacksonville -6.5 vs Baltimore, KC +2.5 @ Buffalo (have I missed something?) and New England -2.5 @ Miami.

I've got a bad habit of picking road teams, so I'm making a conscious effort to try to pick more home sides. Other thing is I'm hopeless with the under/over so I never pick that.
md717
QUOTE (Eyrie @ Nov 13 2005, 11:53 AM)
That I wait for your picks and then choose the opposite? blah.gif I'm 23-22-0 for a -120 balance.

That'd be a damn fine strategy, I gotta say!

Why the "oops" on SEA -6.5? I think you'll get that one, actually.


In fact, I think you'll get ALL your picks this week, 5-0!! Now if THAT doesn't make you nervous, I don't know what WILL! cool.gif
Eyrie
Becuase I saw you'd taken it sad.gif

I was close last week, but lost two when neither San Diego (-6, won by 5) nor KC (-4.5, won by 4) covered.

Anyway, good luck with your picks.

Mikey - you should be playing as well.
md717
Yeah, Mike. What he said. And if you jump in now, you'll automagically be in 2nd place - - or maybe 3rd, but definitely ahead of me!
nephillymike
what's the link again?
nephillymike
BTW, as normal, the lines moved against me.

I got TB pickem
and Min +9 @ NYG
md717
http://wagerline.com/comp/main.asp?Name=Wi...s+NFL+Challenge

there might be a password -- I forget. Somewhere there's a thread about starting it up, or ask JCuz
md717
Your MIN+9 is lookin' pretty good, Mike!! Right now it looks as if they might win outright!
nephillymike
NY just tied it.

Come on Minny, we need a Vikes win here!
Eyrie
We got the Vikes win smile.gif

Knew that KC +2.5 was too good to be true mad.gif
md717
Congrats Mike -- 2-0!!

nephillymike
I don't love it but if I had to pick a side in that one, I'd take the Steelers. Should be OK.

BTW, for a $100 bet, what's your three way parlay pay??
md717
funny you should ask, 'cause I happen to know that one . . .

$596.84
md717
Too bad I didn't take GB straight up, I'm sure that woulda bumped the payout significantly. I shouldn't count my chickens before tonight's game . . .

and it's not really fair, a 3-way parlay is 8-1 odds, but only pays 6-1. grrr
md717
keep sending that Karma!!

With Maddox in at QB, I need it!!
nephillymike
You're in!! Congrats, that's a great payout. I think a two team parlay is 14-8 isn't it? For $80 you win $140??

BTW, aren't the odds 7-1? Out of 8 possible outcomes, one is a winner, 1 in 8 but 7-1 against?

So the vig on that bet is $12.50 on every $100.

Right?
md717
Yes, I think you are right. With 3 "heads/tails" options, the possible outcomes are 8.

So I guess it's not as unfair as I thought . . .

I'm not counting my chickens until the final whistle
Eyrie
Steelers came through for you - nice one!
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