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nephillymike
The Sixers have their own pick (right now it's #5)

They have the right to swap their pick with SAC if SAC pick is better. (right now it's #11)

They also get the LAL pick unless it's top 3. (right now it's #3).

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

So here are the odds as they now stand:

Chance of us getting the LAL pick = 53.1%
Chance our pick is top 3, and 1st overall = 29.1%, 8.8%
Chance SAC pick is top 3, and 1st overall = 2.9%, 0.8%
Combined chance our pick is top 3 or 1st overall = 32.0%, 9.6%

The SAC pick will become better as the talent on the team has gone with Gay's injury and Cousins trade.

The Sixers have 25 left and I'd be shocked if they don't win at least 13. If we do, our ranking goes down to 13th.

If SAC wins only the five games I expect from here on, their pick sweetens to 4th!

It bears watching.

The important percentages: 53.1%, 32.0% and 9.6%.

As the NBA season continues, I will monitor it any time there is a change in the draft slots for us, LAL or SAC.
nephillymike
Both the Sixers and the Kings win and both drop a spot and our chances of the top pick drops to 8.2% and our chances of top 3 drop to 27.7%.

Not the way I've always heard it should be.....
nephillymike
Nothing like a heartbreaking loss to get back on track.

Our loss moves us to # 5 and SAC loss moves them to #11.

We're back to a 32.0% chance for top 3 and 9.6% for #1, with still a 53% chance of getting the LAL pick. However LAL only 0.5 GB #2 PHO.

On the game, what an effort!

It took a Carmelo last second shot to beat us.

This team battles.
nephillymike
http://www.tankathon.com

33.4% for top three

10.0% for the number one pick.

Moving on up.

Orlando was favored to win but lost.

That would have moved us up to #4.

We'll wait.

LAL pick still has a 53% chance of being ours.
nephillymike
35.9, 10.7, 44.2

Bad news.

Lakers move up to the #2 slot, one game ahead of PHO, which decreases our chance of getting their pick to 44.2%.

Damn Phoenix has won two straight to drop to third.

Good news, with us now at 5th and SAC at 8th, our odds of getting a top three have increased to 35.9% and our odds of getting the #1 pick are up to 10.7%.

We are only a half game behind the #4 spot.

This team is not cooperating. They are a feisty bunch and fun to watch and won last night to the favored Knicks. Derrick Anderson plays with hustle and great defense, and contributed 19 points. He fits right in. Saric got in foul trouble and we still pulled it out.

Once again, we're supposed to lose vs DET tonight. With this team, take no loss for granted!

nephillymike
44.1, 13.1, 44.2

With us now at #5 and SAC a tie for #7, our odds of getting a top three pick have increased to 44.1% and our odds at getting the #1 pick have increased to 13.1%. With LAL two games ahead of PHO in the #2 spot, our odds of getting the LAL pick is still down to 44.2%.

With us and SAC both in free fall, our chances for the top and top three pick will likely increase. PHO and LAL Ned to cooperate for the LAL to drop to #3, which doesn't appear likely.
nephillymike
Good news.

With ORL win, we are now 4th.

SAC lost again, good.

MIN won, good.

Still at 44% chance at getting LAL pick.


52.8% of top 3.

16.2 % of getting the #1 pick.

Now back to NFL free agency.

nephillymike
Even in the heat of a very enjoyable Eagles FA period, I will keep the vigil going.

While our chance of getting the LAL is still a less than even 44.2%, our other odds have improved.

http://www.tankathon.com

With us at #4 and SAC falling to a tie for 6th, our odds for a top 3 pick are 56.1% and our odds for the top pick are 17.2%. The SAC tank is moving along nicely.

There are 8 games that effect the tank standings today, and in order of the winners needed and the odds of those happening (per 538) are as follows:

1. LAC over PHI. 86%
2. PHO OVER DAL 25%
3. DEN OVER SAC 50%
4. ORL OVER CLE 30%
5. NO OVER CHA 32%
6. NY OVER DET 27%
7. MIN OVER MIL 43%
8. POR OVER WAS 54%

odds say that only three will happen, but we've gotten lucky with some upsets lately.

Did the 50 spins of the draft generator and here's who we got:

Smith only 13
Smith & Monk 12
Ball only 9
Fultz only 6
Ball and Monk 5
Fultz & Monk 4
Monk only 1

The good news if you don't like Smith, 12 of 13 times when we picked Smith, Monk & Tatum were still available and one time, Isaac, Monk and Tatum were available so we could easily stay away from Smith.

With the 50 spins, we got 71 selections, as 21 times we got the LAL pick.

Here are the number of times we got each pick:
Smith 25 (on almost all of these, we could have Monk or Tatum and on some Isaac if we want)
Monk 22
Ball 14
Fultz 10

Not too bad.
nephillymike
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 11 2017, 04:23 PM) *
Even in the heat of a very enjoyable Eagles FA period, I will keep the vigil going.

While our chance of getting the LAL is still a less than even 44.2%, our other odds have improved.

http://www.tankathon.com

With us at #4 and SAC falling to a tie for 6th, our odds for a top 3 pick are 56.1% and our odds for the top pick are 17.2%. The SAC tank is moving along nicely.

There are 8 games that effect the tank standings today, and in order of the winners needed and the odds of those happening (per 538) are as follows:

1. LAC over PHI. 86%
2. PHO OVER DAL 25%
3. DEN OVER SAC 50%
4. ORL OVER CLE 30%
5. NO OVER CHA 32%
6. NY OVER DET 27%
7. MIN OVER MIL 43%
8. POR OVER WAS 54%

odds say that only three will happen, but we've gotten lucky with some upsets lately.

Did the 50 spins of the draft generator and here's who we got:

Smith only 13
Smith & Monk 12
Ball only 9
Fultz only 6
Ball and Monk 5
Fultz & Monk 4
Monk only 1

The good news if you don't like Smith, 12 of 13 times when we picked Smith, Monk & Tatum were still available and one time, Isaac, Monk and Tatum were available so we could easily stay away from Smith.

With the 50 spins, we got 71 selections, as 21 times we got the LAL pick.

Here are the number of times we got each pick:
Smith 25 (on almost all of these, we could have Monk or Tatum and on some Isaac if we want)
Monk 22
Ball 14
Fultz 10

Not too bad.



5 of 8 went our way. Really good turn of events.. A PHO win and an LAL loss to us and things get a little sweeter.
nephillymike
As of now, we're 5th and SAC is 6th.

We're just behind ORL.

We need, in order:

Sixers loss
SAC loss
ORL win
NY win

NY win is highly unlikely.

The other three are doable.
nephillymike
They had no reason winning that game last night away vs a CHI team fighting for their playoff lives. They go in there, without Okafor and blow them out of the building.

Impressive on one hand. Proud to see that.

Bummed on the other.

ORL won, and a loss last night would have given us the #4 spot. Now we "dropped" down to #7.

That's how close these spots are!!

Just three more weeks of tanking. We need it!
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