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nephillymike
Using this great draftnik site:

http://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft

I decided to take a look at our current position in the draft, #4, SAC, #10 and LAL #3 and I took a look at the possibilities for what prospects will be there at our likely drafting slots.

As a reminder, we get the better of our pick or SAC pick, PLUS, the LAL pick unless it is in the top 3. Realistically, the only way SAC pick can be better than ours is if they land a top 3 spot that is higher than our spot.

Rather than hire an actuary to figure out the exact odds, I decided to run 50 draft simulations on this site and tabulate the prospects we drafted in the mock simulations. If you check out this page

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

you can see how much damage a few wins will do to our changes and even SAC's recent two wins moved them down a few spots which significantly decreases our chances of getting their pick that is in the top three!!

I know D Rock and one or two others had some favorites in this year's class, so I figured this would be a worthwhile exercise for February. Probably not, but it won't be the first waste of time.

In my 50 iterations, not once did SAC get a top 3 pick that was better than our pick, so that swap did not happen. We need SAC to lose and move up the draft board to increase those chances!!

Also, 24 of 50 times (48%), LAL were not in the top 3 and thus conveyed their pick to us!! That means 48% of the time, we get two picks instead of one. It would be nice if we could end up worse than LAL to make that a probability. At a minimum, have them not move up from the #3 slot.

In order of preferred mocks to least preferred mocks, here's how we made out, and really, these all look like good scenarios:

Fultz & Monk = 6%
Ball & Monk = 14%
D. Smith & Monk = 20%
Ntilikina & Monk = 8%
Fultz Only = 4%
Ball Only = 10%
Monk Only = 14%
D. Smith Only = 24%

Keep in mind that if we don't get the LAL pick this year, we get it next year, although it would probably be in the 10-16 range, so this year is better.

Note that none of the mocks had us picking SF's Johnson or Isaac. On the big boards, Jackson is rated 3rd and Isaac 4th, so I guess it is a position reason for us staying away. D, I know you are a big Isaac fan, so for those Isaac and Jackson fans, here are the % of times that they were still on the board when we were making our first pick:

Isaac was available 68% of the time when we were on the clock for our first pick
Jackson was only available 14% of the time when we were on the clock for our first pick.

In the drafts when we had two picks:

Isaac was available in 17 of the 24 times when we were on the clock to make our second pick, but that is really only 34% of all the mocks.
Jackson was never available when we were making our second pick.

Lastly, here are the chances that each of these prospects are Sixers based on these 50 mock iterations:

Monk = 62%
Smith = 44%
Ball = 24%
Fultz = 10%
Ntilikina = 8%
Total = 148% (100% for our first pick plus the 48% of the time we get the LAL pick)

So in conclusion, I'd like to tank all those who read this and tank any who choose to respond.

Tank you very much.

Keep on dancing Jo Jo!!

Joegrane
Tank you for the odds of the Sixers getting the Lakers' pick. I had no idea it was anywhere near 50%!

Since they expect three lottery picks in the next two years I'd be very tempted to select Ntilikina(Nt) with the lesser of the two picks. That would probably be riskier than selecting some of the alternatives; however, they have the picks to fill needs.

The Sixers will likely need someone who can provide credible defense on M Fults in Boston. Nt has the quickness and elite length.

They will want a PG with length to get the ball to Embiid down low. Nt has that.

The Sixers are not under pressure to win now. They can wait for Nt to develop physically.

This article provides a nice analysis of Nt's risk-reward situation for the Sixers.
http://thesixersense.com/2017/01/09/philad...taking-risks/3/



QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 11 2017, 07:26 PM) *
Using this great draftnik site:

http://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft

I decided to take a look at our current position in the draft, #4, SAC, #10 and LAL #3 and I took a look at the possibilities for what prospects will be there at our likely drafting slots.

As a reminder, we get the better of our pick or SAC pick, PLUS, the LAL pick unless it is in the top 3. Realistically, the only way SAC pick can be better than ours is if they land a top 3 spot that is higher than our spot.

Rather than hire an actuary to figure out the exact odds, I decided to run 50 draft simulations on this site and tabulate the prospects we drafted in the mock simulations. If you check out this page

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

you can see how much damage a few wins will do to our changes and even SAC's recent two wins moved them down a few spots which significantly decreases our chances of getting their pick that is in the top three!!

I know D Rock and one or two others had some favorites in this year's class, so I figured this would be a worthwhile exercise for February. Probably not, but it won't be the first waste of time.

In my 50 iterations, not once did SAC get a top 3 pick that was better than our pick, so that swap did not happen. We need SAC to lose and move up the draft board to increase those chances!!

Also, 24 of 50 times (48%), LAL were not in the top 3 and thus conveyed their pick to us!! That means 48% of the time, we get two picks instead of one. It would be nice if we could end up worse than LAL to make that a probability. At a minimum, have them not move up from the #3 slot.

In order of preferred mocks to least preferred mocks, here's how we made out, and really, these all look like good scenarios:

Fultz & Monk = 6%
Ball & Monk = 14%
D. Smith & Monk = 20%
Ntilikina & Monk = 8%
Fultz Only = 4%
Ball Only = 10%
Monk Only = 14%
D. Smith Only = 24%

Keep in mind that if we don't get the LAL pick this year, we get it next year, although it would probably be in the 10-16 range, so this year is better.

Note that none of the mocks had us picking SF's Johnson or Isaac. On the big boards, Jackson is rated 3rd and Isaac 4th, so I guess it is a position reason for us staying away. D, I know you are a big Isaac fan, so for those Isaac and Jackson fans, here are the % of times that they were still on the board when we were making our first pick:

Isaac was available 68% of the time when we were on the clock for our first pick
Jackson was only available 14% of the time when we were on the clock for our first pick.

In the drafts when we had two picks:

Isaac was available in 17 of the 24 times when we were on the clock to make our second pick, but that is really only 34% of all the mocks.
Jackson was never available when we were making our second pick.

Lastly, here are the chances that each of these prospects are Sixers based on these 50 mock iterations:

Monk = 62%
Smith = 44%
Ball = 24%
Fultz = 10%
Ntilikina = 8%
Total = 148% (100% for our first pick plus the 48% of the time we get the LAL pick)

So in conclusion, I'd like to tank all those who read this and tank any who choose to respond.

Tank you very much.

Keep on dancing Jo Jo!!

nephillymike
This team is Killing Me.

Another great win. They just don't quit.

WTF?

MIA won 13 in a row.

Until they ran into our scrappers.

Get with the program.

They're messing up my odds!

We got some draft picks to sure up.
nephillymike
Add another win and drop another spot in the draft!

No Embiid or Okafor, on the road.

WTF.

Now at 6th.

Need to lose at BOS on Wed.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 14 2017, 06:37 AM) *
Add another win and drop another spot in the draft!

No Embiid or Okafor, on the road.

WTF.

Now at 6th.

Need to lose at BOS on Wed.


more telling is how much better they are without Okafor
D Rock
Great stuff, Mikey.

Unfortunately, your efforts seem to say that Smith is the most likely acquisition. That would be a tragedy in my eyes. I'm not seeing what others apparently see in him.

As you said, I love Issac. I'm assuming most of these pundits and draft mockers are not doing their homework and just writing him off as a potential sixer because of his size. He's not a down-low player. He lives, defends, and shoots from the perimeter, which is exactly what we need. He can defend 1-5 and is a great shooter (2nd only to Monk in my eyes - and Monk could struggle to shoot over nba defenders at 6'3").

If we end up at 5 or later, I'd take a long look at Ntilikina. He checks all the boxes, but is super young and reportedly somewhat passive (lacks killer instincts) at times on the court. The only real film I've been able to find, is him going against other youngsters in a European league for 18 year olds. He was dominant, but the competition was very weak. Great size, range, vision, defense. They'd have to do their homework to see if he's in the right place mentally.

I said in the other hoops related thread, that I'd exhaust all options to sell the farm to get up to #1 and nab Fultz. Here Lakers, take our 1st pick, Nerlens, and your 2018 1st rounder back. Fultz going to the Lakers would be bad juju with Russell and Clarkson already at the 1 & 2. Fultz is better than both, but it'd be similar to us taking another damn center in the round.

By the bye...

I'm not feeling Bryan Colangelo at all. WTF Man?!?!? Get Jahlil out of here. Now!
D Rock
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Feb 14 2017, 08:37 PM) *
more telling is how much better they are without Okafor

Okafor is shockingly un-athletic. I can't decide if it's effort or inability that makes him so completely useless on the defensive end. I suspect it's a bit of both. His lateral movement is laughable for a guy with all that length, and he has less hops than my 9 year old. For a 6'11" pro basketball player, he can barely throw down with two hands.

I read a blog recently, that was written by a guy who had followed his career since AAU & early H.S. and he was suggesting that Jah never had to work to get where he was. He was so physically superior, so early. And when he was a youngster, ball dominant scoring big men were the holy grail of hoops. He was never asked to defend until he got to the NBA, and by the time he got here . . . the game had changed so dramatically from a big's point of view.

I can accept a big who struggles to close out on a stretch 4. But when your on-ball defense down low is as atrocious as his is, it's going to be tough for any team to succeed with him on the floor. He needs to play on a team that doesn't want to run (like that even exists anymore), wants to slow the game down, and play inside-out offense in the half court. Sadly, he REALLY struggles passing out of the double team too, so.... whatayagonnado? hunch.gif

It will go down as Hinkie's greatest error, taking him over Kristaps. I assume he was looking at Jahlil as Embiid insurance after we all suffered through the Bynum debacle. Perhaps a wise investment considering the unknowns at that time. But, at this point, for everyone's sake... it's time to let him go, regardless of how poor the returns might be.
D Rock
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 14 2017, 11:37 AM) *
Add another win and drop another spot in the draft!

No Embiid or Okafor, on the road.

WTF.

Now at 6th.

Need to lose at BOS on Wed.

Luke Walton fucked us last night.

I was watching Kings vs. Lakers and we nearly had a dream scenario of a Lakers win, but Walton shit the bed.

Boogie goes to the line with 9 seconds left in tied game, shooting 2. Hits the 1st. The 2nd rims out. Rebound gets tapped around until Sweet Lou comes down with it with 6 seconds remaining. Walton's sitting on 2 twenty second time-outs, but DOESN'T STOP THE FUCKING CLOCK!!!!

Lou tries to come off a half-ass screen by Mosgov and launches an off balanced prayer from WAAAAAY down town as time expires. It barely grazes front iron. Kings win by 1.

If Luke stops the clock per coaching 101, he advances the ball past mid court and can set up a play with 6 to shoot. Sheer Madness.
D Rock
Bryan is more concerned that HE might look bad if he undersells Jahlil, than he is with doing the right thing for either the team or the player...

link
Joegrane
I agree about Smith. I don't think he fits the Sixers, although he might become a very good and fun to watch attack-mode PG.

Ntilikina might not need killer instincts the way the Sixers are coming together. Since Simmons will often be the primary PG in the half court offense they don't need the traditional PG.

They'd benefit from someone who is a good defender and can shoot the 3. That is why I'm not as fond of Monk for the Sixers.

Also you can't have a court full of offensive minded players who are used to having the ball in their hands.

Also Buddy Hield has a chance of coming here in a Okafor trade, no? He is more like Monk than Ntilinkina, correct?


QUOTE (D Rock @ Feb 15 2017, 03:13 PM) *
Great stuff, Mikey.

Unfortunately, your efforts seem to say that Smith is the most likely acquisition. That would be a tragedy in my eyes. I'm not seeing what others apparently see in him.

As you said, I love Issac. I'm assuming most of these pundits and draft mockers are not doing their homework and just writing him off as a potential sixer because of his size. He's not a down-low player. He lives, defends, and shoots from the perimeter, which is exactly what we need. He can defend 1-5 and is a great shooter (2nd only to Monk in my eyes - and Monk could struggle to shoot over nba defenders at 6'3").

If we end up at 5 or later, I'd take a long look at Ntilikina. He checks all the boxes, but is super young and reportedly somewhat passive (lacks killer instincts) at times on the court. The only real film I've been able to find, is him going against other youngsters in a European league for 18 year olds. He was dominant, but the competition was very weak. Great size, range, vision, defense. They'd have to do their homework to see if he's in the right place mentally.

I said in the other hoops related thread, that I'd exhaust all options to sell the farm to get up to #1 and nab Fultz. Here Lakers, take our 1st pick, Nerlens, and your 2018 1st rounder back. Fultz going to the Lakers would be bad juju with Russell and Clarkson already at the 1 & 2. Fultz is better than both, but it'd be similar to us taking another damn center in the round.

By the bye...

I'm not feeling Bryan Colangelo at all. WTF Man?!?!? Get Jahlil out of here. Now!

D Rock
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Feb 15 2017, 10:08 PM) *
I agree about Smith. I don't think he fits the Sixers, although he might become a very good and fun to watch attack-mode PG.

Agreed. Though, he's no Westbrook or even D.Rose.

QUOTE (Joegrane @ Feb 15 2017, 10:08 PM) *
Ntilikina might not need killer instincts the way the Sixers are coming together. Since Simmons will often be the primary PG in the half court offense they don't need the traditional PG.

Agreed again. A primary reason I prefer Fultz, Monk, Ntilikina to Smith is that they're all equally adept at playing off the ball as they are primary ball handlers. Smith and Lonzo Ball both are ball dominant 1s.

QUOTE (Joegrane @ Feb 15 2017, 10:08 PM) *
They'd benefit from someone who is a good defender and can shoot the 3. That is why I'm not as fond of Monk for the Sixers.

Agreed yet again... That's why my favorite player in this draft (other than Fultz) is Isaac. He can shoot with the best of them, AND defend 1-5. That's a rare ability and will allow us to switch everything.

QUOTE (Joegrane @ Feb 15 2017, 10:08 PM) *
Also you can't have a court full of offensive minded players who are used to having the ball in their hands.

Nobody said that. The single reason I don't want Lonzo Ball or Smith is that they are primary ball handlers. Isaac is IMO the single best defender of the bunch. The only one who is questionable at all on the defensive end is Monk, but those questions are about his lack of size more than defensive ability. Whoever we get, he has to be able to guard multiple spot, because while Simmons may be running the offense, there's no way he's tasked with defending the other team's point. That said, at 6'3" Monk could defend the point while playing the 2 on the offensive end.

QUOTE (Joegrane @ Feb 15 2017, 10:08 PM) *
Also Buddy Hield has a chance of coming here in a Okafor trade, no?

No. There is zero chance we get Hield for Okafor.

QUOTE (Joegrane @ Feb 15 2017, 10:08 PM) *
He is more like Monk than Ntilinkina, correct?

Correct.
nephillymike
Hey, didn't know if you guys noticed this, but the tankathon site linked above has two or three 5 min videos of each player.

They have some good stuff that may show some things from these prospects that you didn't see before.

We're still dropping as is SAC. I may do this exercise during the AS break to see how it looks.

My concern is that we will be looking at a few prospects lower than those listed here.

The scrappers are hanging with BOS tied at 52.
nephillymike
Team scared me tonight.

Almost pulled out the win.

If not for 4 late turnovers and some home cooking calls down the stretch , they would have beaten the Celts.

This team without Embiid is a .500 club.

With him, we may be at 47 wins or better, right now.
D Rock
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 16 2017, 01:23 AM) *
Hey, didn't know if you guys noticed this, but the tankathon site linked above has two or three 5 min videos of each player.

They have some good stuff that may show some things from these prospects that you didn't see before.

We're still dropping as is SAC. I may do this exercise during the AS break to see how it looks.

My concern is that we will be looking at a few prospects lower than those listed here.

The scrappers are hanging with BOS tied at 52.

We're not even discussing bigs. There are a few bigs worthy of top 10 consideration, so some of these guards will be pushed down.
nephillymike
Some stats comparisons:

http://www.draftexpress.com/stats.php?year...&sort2=DESC
nephillymike
Now that we've dropped from #4 to #5, I did another 50 iterations and the number on the far right is the new #'s

Fultz & Monk = 6%.........4%
Ball & Monk = 14%.........14%
D. Smith & Monk = 20%.24%
Ntilikina & Monk = 8%....8%
Fultz Only = 4%..............2%
Ball Only = 10%..............6%
Monk Only = 14%...........34%
D. Smith Only = 24%......8%

And as far as %'s of picking a certain player:

Monk = 62%..................84%
Smith = 44%.................32%
Ball = 24%.....................20%
Fultz = 10%...................6%
Ntilikina = 8%................8%
Total = 148% (100% for our first pick plus the 48% of the time we get the LAL pick)........150%

So for someone like D, who is not high on Smith or Ball, this may be a better development given the odds on getting Monk go way up at the big expense of Smith and small expense of Fultz, unfortunately.

After looking into it a little closer, I really don't want Ntilikina. Just not enough production in a weak league. Too much risk. If my top choices of Fultz, Ball, Monk, and Smith are gone, I'd have no problem going Isaac. If he's gone, I' think I'd go with one of the power forwards before I take Ntilinka. Not sold on Fox either, not a good enough shooter.
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