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nephillymike
Here's my take at the road to the cap room needing to signing free agents we need:

First off, I don;t know how or why, but Spotrac has our cap space going down from 12.4 last week to 10.84 as of now. I'm not sure why that happened but we'll go with it.

Beginning Cap Space = 10.84
Cap Cuts:
Name...........Savings........Comments
Barwin...........7.75M......His play (and investment in Curry) doesn't validate an investment, even on reduced deal
Mathews........4.00M.........a shame of his oft injured status. Can't risk him not being healthy this year
Kelce..............3.80M........was 33rd best after 10 games, improved, but not enough. Get's blown up to often
Kendricks.......5.00M........by using our one time June 1st designation, his cap relief jumps from 1.8M to 5.0M
Total Avail.....31.39M

A combination of next man up on the roster and draft picks will replace the above.

Uses of Cap:
Sign Rookies........6.80M .....equals our rookie pool allocation (is net of sal saved for cuts to make room for picks)
Re-Sign Logan......4.50M.......I can't get rid of Barwin and Logan in the same year. See belwo for details
Sign Top Tier CB...8.00M.......See below for details
Sign Top Tier WR..8.00M.......See below for details
Total Uses...........27.30M

Total Remaining ..4.09M

I went big and went after the top CB and top WR to show we had the money to do so.

The top CB's and WR's this year have the following est market values by Spotrac:

Jeffrey 4 yrs, 11.5 per, 46.3M total
T. Pryor 4 yrs, 9.1M per, 36.7M total
D. Jackson 3 yrs. 7.6M per, 22.8M total
K. Britt 3 yrs, 6.7 per, 20.1M total

T. Johnson 4 yrs, 14.1M per, 56.6M total
S. Gilmore 5 yrs, 12.0M per, 60.3M total
A. Bouye 5 yrs, 11.1 per, 55.6M total

How much has to hit the first year of the cap?

Using two examples of similarly high priced FA's from last year's FA's show how much should hit:

Baldwin WR, 4 yrs, 11.5 per, 46.0M total = Cap Hits per year of 8.00, 9.65, 10.40, 11.40
J. Jenkins CB 5 yrs, 12.5 per, 62.5M total =Cap Hits per year of 8.00, 15.00, 13.00, 12.25, 12.25

Using these two as guides, the 8.00M first year cap hits for these top FA's is reasonable.

The Eagles can choose to sign a lower priced FA's then the top, but by showing the top FA's at PON, shows what we can afford. If we go lower, then we might be able to sign another mid tier FA at another position.

Now as far as Logan goes. I am not crazy about paying more money for the DL, but I can't have two major changes here. Curry will fill in for Barwin, but I resign Logan.

As far as his market value goes, I think he'll come cheaper that we think.

He's rated as the 36th best DT by PFF this year. I think he's better than that, but he isn't seen as a star player.

Similar from last year: A. Jones = 5 yrs/30.4M and L. Joseph = 5 yrs/31.25M

I don't think Logan is in the same class but I'll give him a bump above to be conservative and I get 5 yrs/32.5M
with a big guarantee broken down as follows:

5 years, 32.5M total, 17.0M guaranteed including a 5.0M SB breaking down by year

Year.......Sal.........Cap........Notes
One.......3.5.........4.5.........5.0 SB and 3.5 Sal guar
Two.......4.0.........5.0.........4.0 Sal guar
Three.....4.5.........5.5.........4.5 sal guar
Four......5.5..........6.5.........none
Five.......6.5.........7.5..........a roster bonus of 3.5M due after year four.

So, I think the 4.5 year one cap for Logan is doable without too much of a stretch.

Reality Fan
Lets take a look at your examples.....

Alshon Jeffries?
The Bears start with 62 million in cap space and no long list of high priced FAs to re sign. They have 46 guys signed but keeping Jeffries is a priority.
Tyrelle Pryor?
From your own example a simple quote:
Overall, based on his production compared to players with APYs ranging from $8M to $13M, I can’t envision a scenario where Pryor signs for less than $8M.
And his agent is Rosenhaus...he won't be cheap but the writers in Cleveland think he stays.
Kenny Britt?
He is likely to be the one available guy and that is a problem because the Rams are rumored to be looking to replace him with Jackson.

That means Britt is the one decent (and he is only decent) WR likely available which means he and Jackson will entertain bids. That means no one knows the market value. Spotrac uses previous contracts to determine market value, not the actual marketplace.

The CB market is also weak...

Bouye will likely resign but if he doesn't the Jets want him and they have a ton of moves they can make to free up the cap room....just like the Eagles...only more.
Gilmore is looking to get paid at a position that teams like to pay for. The only hope is that his mediocre 2016 keeps his number down but there a re a lot of suitors for him.
Trumaine Johnson will be pricey as well....and in demand.

I think the disconnect is that one side looks strictly at the numbers while the other side looks at the numbers and the market place and the contributing factors that affect the values that go to the market place.

nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Jan 21 2017, 03:22 PM) *
Lets take a look at your examples.....

Alshon Jeffries?
The Bears start with 62 million in cap space and no long list of high priced FAs to re sign. They have 46 guys signed but keeping Jeffries is a priority.
Tyrelle Pryor?
From your own example a simple quote:
Overall, based on his production compared to players with APYs ranging from $8M to $13M, I can’t envision a scenario where Pryor signs for less than $8M.
And his agent is Rosenhaus...he won't be cheap but the writers in Cleveland think he stays.
Kenny Britt?
He is likely to be the one available guy and that is a problem because the Rams are rumored to be looking to replace him with Jackson.

That means Britt is the one decent (and he is only decent) WR likely available which means he and Jackson will entertain bids. That means no one knows the market value. Spotrac uses previous contracts to determine market value, not the actual marketplace.

The CB market is also weak...

Bouye will likely resign but if he doesn't the Jets want him and they have a ton of moves they can make to free up the cap room....just like the Eagles...only more.
Gilmore is looking to get paid at a position that teams like to pay for. The only hope is that his mediocre 2016 keeps his number down but there a re a lot of suitors for him.
Trumaine Johnson will be pricey as well....and in demand.

I think the disconnect is that one side looks strictly at the numbers while the other side looks at the numbers and the market place and the contributing factors that affect the values that go to the market place.


The purpose of my illustration was to show that we can afford one each of the top WR and CB.

I've stated there was a big risk they resign with their old team.

If they hit the market, we will be in the game, if we want to be. Not sure if we'll want to be with the top priced ones, but if we do, we'll be there. Will it be a layup? No way. Even if in the game, we may only have a one in two or one in three shot.

We do have some things going for us. Our passion for football is huge. Shady shows up to a Sixers game the other night and gets a standing ovation. A standing O! Being important is important. Also Wentz should help over some places. The organizations classy reputation.

We have a decent shot.

It is cap-wise very doable. Market-wise? We'll see who hits the market then go from there.

Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Jan 21 2017, 03:46 PM) *
The purpose of my illustration was to show that we can afford one each of the top WR and CB.

I've stated there was a big risk they resign with their old team.

If they hit the market, we will be in the game, if we want to be. Not sure if we'll want to be with the top priced ones, but if we do, we'll be there. Will it be a layup? No way. Even if in the game, we may only have a one in two or one in three shot.

We do have some things going for us. Our passion for football is huge. Shady shows up to a Sixers game the other night and gets a standing ovation. A standing O! Being important is important. Also Wentz should help over some places. The organizations classy reputation.

We have a decent shot.

It is cap-wise very doable. Market-wise? We'll see who hits the market then go from there.



From a purely mathematical standpoint....if it were a store we could shop at something other then the bargain table without question.

But it is the NFL marketplace or conditional auction. So many factors affect it and those factors change every year. This year is a pretty weak FA class that will get even worse as teams resign their guys.

As far as the factors that help woo a FA? I will give you that Wentz may help...not a lot but he won't hurt. Beyond that the media and the ownership/management and city can be as much as a deterrent as a plus. It is not a rumor or fantasy that all have a certain reputation.

Add in the agents and it is a real mess.

It is not all bad....in a year or 2 the Eagles will be in a place to go hog wild....it is just this offseason where they are at the mercy of others.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Jan 21 2017, 04:15 PM) *
From a purely mathematical standpoint....if it were a store we could shop at something other then the bargain table without question.

But it is the NFL marketplace or conditional auction. So many factors affect it and those factors change every year. This year is a pretty weak FA class that will get even worse as teams resign their guys.

As far as the factors that help woo a FA? I will give you that Wentz may help...not a lot but he won't hurt. Beyond that the media and the ownership/management and city can be as much as a deterrent as a plus. It is not a rumor or fantasy that all have a certain reputation.

Add in the agents and it is a real mess.

It is not all bad....in a year or 2 the Eagles will be in a place to go hog wild....it is just this offseason where they are at the mercy of others.



Remember I did say that we had a better shot in 2016 than 2017?

That being said, there just might be a beer and wings bet brewing over this free Agency season (again!)

I've got to settle the score for that gut wrenching defeat by a measly few 100 K on last year's Bradford FA bet. If nothing else, it's a good excuse for a few beers.
Joegrane
DJax to LA is interesting because that would be a homecoming.

However, it would not be like J Maclin going home to KC. JM knew the coach and his system. JM was filling a huge void on KC's roster. There was good reason for him to think he'd have an opportunity to be a home town hero. KC was putting up $. It made sense for him to leave Philly to go home to KC.

However DJax does not have the rapport with the Ram's coach. He is not going to turn them into a winning team let alone into a playoff team. Does DJax trust Goff to get him the ball? Do people in LA really care about the Rams? If DJax goes to LA, it would have to be due to $.

I have no idea what the Eagles front office and coaches think of DJax at this point in his career, but it would be hard to imagine Philly is not more attractive to him than LA.

QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Jan 21 2017, 03:22 PM) *
...
Tyrelle Pryor?
From your own example a simple quote:
Overall, based on his production compared to players with APYs ranging from $8M to $13M, I can’t envision a scenario where Pryor signs for less than $8M.
And his agent is Rosenhaus...he won't be cheap but the writers in Cleveland think he stays.
Kenny Britt?
He is likely to be the one available guy and that is a problem because the Rams are rumored to be looking to replace him with Jackson.

That means Britt is the one decent (and he is only decent) WR likely available which means he and Jackson will entertain bids. That means no one knows the market value. Spotrac uses previous contracts to determine market value, not the actual marketplace.
...

Zero
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Jan 21 2017, 10:12 PM) *
If DJax goes to LA, it would have to be due to $.

If the money is there, LA would probably be attractive to DJax because it's his home. Does he still have his recording business there?

I'm not a big fan of bringing him back. I'd rather he and Shady and Mac never had left, but it's done and DJax is aging. I'd rather see younger guys who can develop a rapport with Wentz and play together for a few years.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Jan 21 2017, 10:12 PM) *
DJax to LA is interesting because that would be a homecoming.

However, it would not be like J Maclin going home to KC. JM knew the coach and his system. JM was filling a huge void on KC's roster. There was good reason for him to think he'd have an opportunity to be a home town hero. KC was putting up $. It made sense for him to leave Philly to go home to KC.

However DJax does not have the rapport with the Ram's coach. He is not going to turn them into a winning team let alone into a playoff team. Does DJax trust Goff to get him the ball? Do people in LA really care about the Rams? If DJax goes to LA, it would have to be due to $.

I have no idea what the Eagles front office and coaches think of DJax at this point in his career, but it would be hard to imagine Philly is not more attractive to him than LA.


oooo contrare my friend....Jackson has a huge rapport with McKvay.....

http://www.csnmidatlantic.com/washington-r...rams-head-coach

Jackson would finally be playing at home for a guy he apparently loves.....and the money would be big. I think he would also like Philly though, a final FU to Chip Kelly...lol

We shall see
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Jan 21 2017, 04:28 PM) *
Remember I did say that we had a better shot in 2016 than 2017?

That being said, there just might be a beer and wings bet brewing over this free Agency season (again!)

I've got to settle the score for that gut wrenching defeat by a measly few 100 K on last year's Bradford FA bet. If nothing else, it's a good excuse for a few beers.



completely agree....a wager is in the offing
Joegrane
Very interesting, thanks.

I don't expect the Eagles to overpay for a 30 yr old DJax.

The Rams may have incentive to do so as they try to build a following in a new city. They have $40 mil in cap space. However they have a number of their own FAs to resign or replace, much more than the Eagles

QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Jan 22 2017, 11:12 AM) *
oooo contrare my friend....Jackson has a huge rapport with McKvay.....

http://www.csnmidatlantic.com/washington-r...rams-head-coach

Jackson would finally be playing at home for a guy he apparently loves.....and the money would be big. I think he would also like Philly though, a final FU to Chip Kelly...lol

We shall see

Reality Fan
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Jan 22 2017, 12:18 PM) *
Very interesting, thanks.

I don't expect the Eagles to overpay for a 30 yr old DJax.

The Rams may have incentive to do so as they try to build a following in a new city. They have $40 mil in cap space. However they have a number of their own FAs to resign or replace, much more than the Eagles


I hope you are right....but I worry Howie goes for the PR of signing Jackson.

The Rams are letting Trumaine Johnson walk and Kenny Britt is being let go as well.(he will get overpaid in FA).

After that they don't have any high priced guys to sign. They have 8 other FAs but nothing staggering and they have 57 guys under contract. The Eagles have 6 guys and a very expensive Logan to resign. Perhaps they pass on Logan, a concept I would agree with.

There is the idea that they could endure the pain of cutting deep in 17 to build for 18 at the skill position.

Although...on a side note.....Julio Jones is the only stud of the 4 teams taken in the first round at WR or RB if I recall correctly.


nephillymike
No sense writing this in a new post.

Bumped for further "non-basketball" discussion.

I'll take a glance at the latest FA lists and rankings to see if anyone new is intriguing.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 28 2017, 08:29 PM) *
No sense writing this in a new post.

Bumped for further "non-basketball" discussion.

I'll take a glance at the latest FA lists and rankings to see if anyone new is intriguing.


Jeffries will be a FA....appaerntly the Bears think he isn't worth the money or the trouble and I agree completely

The guy in Miami will likely stay
Joegrane
So are you hoping K Britt comes back home to the Northeast and reunites with his former position coach or do you want them to roll the dice on a WR in Round 1?

QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Feb 28 2017, 08:48 PM) *
Jeffries will be a FA....appaerntly the Bears think he isn't worth the money or the trouble and I agree completely

The guy in Miami will likely stay

Reality Fan
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Feb 28 2017, 09:30 PM) *
So are you hoping K Britt comes back home to the Northeast and reunites with his former position coach or do you want them to roll the dice on a WR in Round 1?



Honestly I don't have a clue Joe.....I guess I want them to draft a guy or 2...there aren't any real wow guys for me for the money it will cost....with Peters not restructuring it really puts another crimp in the wallet
nephillymike
At this point, I'm a little concerned about the lack of cap space saving cuts and/or trades.

If they don't make the cuts, we aren't doing anything in FA!
D Rock
Of the list of FA WRs, I'd make a run a Pryor. I gotta think anyone would jump at any chance to get the hell out of Cleveland. Especially a WR.
GroundedBird
Here are my thoughts (as of the moment)

Sign Kevin Zeitler (convert him to LG) - make Wentz comfortable
Sign Latavius Murray - a weapon to replace Matthews

#1 Corey Miller/Mike Williams/John Ross
#2 Best CB available
#3 Tanoh Kpassagnon - underrated DE (good pass rusher) can play DT on passing downs
#4 Best CB available
#5 DL

(projects from that point on)
Joegrane
What do you think about targeting a LB in the middle rounds to replace Kendricks either this or next year.

QUOTE (GroundedBird @ Mar 2 2017, 09:51 AM) *
Here are my thoughts (as of the moment)

Sign Kevin Zeitler (convert him to LG) - make Wentz comfortable
Sign Latavius Murray - a weapon to replace Matthews

#1 Corey Miller/Mike Williams/John Ross
#2 Best CB available
#3 Tanoh Kpassagnon - underrated DE (good pass rusher) can play DT on passing downs
#4 Best CB available
#5 DL

(projects from that point on)

GroundedBird
duplicate email --- removing
GroundedBird
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Mar 2 2017, 10:14 AM) *
What do you think about targeting a LB in the middle rounds to replace Kendricks either this or next year.


It would be nice to address that this year but I think we have too many other holes. I think WR, DB and addressing the passs rush are our biggest needs out of the draft.


Realistically I think we need two drafts to get us to where we want to be. Maybe next year we can address the LB and the RB issues (if needed.)

any stud LB coming out next year?
GroundedBird
Note: NFL Draft is not very high on Kpassagnon -> link

I've seen him on a few occasions and think he's worth the pick. Any other impressions?
nephillymike
Update on cap situation:

Per Overthrcap

Current Avail......8.69M
Less Rookie Pool.(6.84M)
Sub Total...........1.85M
Cuts:
Barwin...............7.75M
Kendricks...........5.00M
Mathews............4.00M
Kelce.................3.80M
Sub Total...........20.55M

Cap Space Avail..22.4M

BTW, Barbre savings 2.1M

I have a feeling trader Howie will surprise us with something.
Zero
They won't need that rookie money until May, right? So, practically they have the $8.69 now plus whatever cuts/trades they make. Today starts the rumor fireworks with legal tampering.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Zero @ Mar 7 2017, 05:59 AM) *
They won't need that rookie money until May, right? So, practically they have the $8.69 now plus whatever cuts/trades they make. Today starts the rumor fireworks with legal tampering.

Yes.
Zero
Houseman is chiming in. Is he dropping hints?
QUOTE
A guess here is that the Eagles will sign two to three free agents, and I’m not sure we’ll see any action in the first few days. The lack of cap room is a real challenge in this day and age. Teams are going to throw a lot of money at this crop of free agents.

A prediction, and I’m not sure why I feel this way: I say receivers aren’t going to get the astronomical dollars that many feel are coming. Why pay receivers when another strong group is coming in the draft? To me, it makes more sense to give the big money to the interior positions and the difference-makers at cornerback. Running backs, for sure, are going to scratch for big contracts, particularly veterans like Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson. Which receivers are going to get huge dollars? I know, I know, it only takes one team ...

Reality Fan
So how do those Spotrac estimates look now at WR?
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 9 2017, 04:41 PM) *
So how do those Spotrac estimates look now at WR?

I will let you know when I get a chance to take a look at the details.

Right now, Phits and I are busy trying to figure out how the hell the world didn't end and we were able to maneuver the cap and be big time FA players even though we were declared cap broke by the multitudes. devil03.gif
Zero
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 9 2017, 08:10 PM) *
I will let you know when I get a chance to take a look at the details.

Right now, Phits and I are busy trying to figure out how the hell the world didn't end and we were able to maneuver the cap and be big time FA players even though we were declared cap broke by the multitudes. devil03.gif

It's the reality of optimism. biggrin.gif
Joegrane
Do teams have to be under the cap at all times or do they have to be under the cap by a certain date?

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 9 2017, 08:10 PM) *
I will let you know when I get a chance to take a look at the details.

Right now, Phits and I are busy trying to figure out how the hell the world didn't end and we were able to maneuver the cap and be big time FA players even though we were declared cap broke by the multitudes. devil03.gif

Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 9 2017, 08:10 PM) *
I will let you know when I get a chance to take a look at the details.

Right now, Phits and I are busy trying to figure out how the hell the world didn't end and we were able to maneuver the cap and be big time FA players even though we were declared cap broke by the multitudes. devil03.gif


That is because the gutting has yet to come...they don't have to be under the cap until June 1st,,,,the question now is who is going and who is going to play DT and CB.

nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 9 2017, 09:25 PM) *
That is because the gutting has yet to come...they don't have to be under the cap until June 1st,,,,the question now is who is going and who is going to play DT and CB.



Check on that.

I could be wrong but I thought that they have to be under the cap on the first day of the cap year, (that is today), but that only the top 51 salaries count for the entire off season, until the regular season at which time all 53 players' salaries count.

If that still stands, they need to be under the cap with their 51 at all times.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 9 2017, 09:58 PM) *
Check on that.

I could be wrong but I thought that they have to be under the cap on the first day of the cap year, (that is today), but that only the top 51 salaries count for the entire off season, until the regular season at which time all 53 players' salaries count.

If that still stands, they need to be under the cap with their 51 at all times.


rule 51 does mean that only the top 51 salaries count aginst the cap in the offseason....Eskin said something about gettting under the cap by June 1st......looking for that now
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 9 2017, 10:56 PM) *
rule 51 does mean that only the top 51 salaries count aginst the cap in the offseason....Eskin said something about gettting under the cap by June 1st......looking for that now


maybe he was confused and meant about Kendricks being designated a June 1st cut, which allows us to save $5M in cap on him this year as opposed to a much lesser amount if not named a June 1st cut? It's just a designation, not an actual cap hit on that day.

Howard struggles with the cap. Back in the day, he infuriated me because he didn't know shit about the cap while pontificating about how much money the Eagles were spending and how up against the cap they were when all along Banner was using cap loopholes to make it appear that we were spending the cap. On the cap back then, he just told it as Banner told him to tell it!!
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 9 2017, 08:10 PM) *
I will let you know when I get a chance to take a look at the details.

Right now, Phits and I are busy trying to figure out how the hell the world didn't end and we were able to maneuver the cap and be big time FA players even though we were declared cap broke by the multitudes. devil03.gif



By the way...this is how....

QUOTE
Some may applaud those moves, but they're losses nonetheless, and the Eagles still have many holes on the roster. If Kendricks goes, and defensive tackle Bennie Logan walks in free agency, the Eagles will have five starting positions to replace on defense. Investing deeply at receiver will likely prevent them from addressing those needs in the rest of free agency.


http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/201703...-term_deal.html

They will have to pay the piper somewhere...you of all people should understand the math....

duel.gif
Zero
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 10 2017, 12:28 AM) *
They will have to pay the piper somewhere...you of all people should understand the math....

I think you're ignoring the likelihood that Barwin, Kendricks, Mathews and Brooks would have been jettisoned anyway. Kelce, probably not if not for cap constraints, but the glaring need for WRs who are able to help a young QB forced the issue, not Roseman's aggressiveness. Yes, the argument can be made that last year's extensions to Ertz, Celek and Cox and the previous year to Curry and Kendricks were a significant part of the cap problem, but I'd argue that Ertz, Cox, et al were more necessary for team morale than for talent retention. Kelly proved to be a disaster at personnel management and as bad or worse at team unity. Roseman and the Eagles had to do something to avoid becoming the Browns or Redskins.

It looks like Roseman's done a good job of helping Wentz without taking a second mortgage on the cap future. All three of these signings are essentially one year deals or shorter. All three are risk signings with good upside. I'm at a loss for how these can be criticized other than being in the position that forced the need to go this route, and that's not all on Roseman.
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