Help - Search - Members - Calendar
Full Version: This Eagles Team By The Numbers
Eagles Forum > Philadelphia Eagles Message Board > Philadelphia Eagles or Football Related Discussion
nephillymike
How close is this team to being a playoff team?

To a Super Bowl contender?

How good or bad really were we this year?

Well, MikeyNumbers looked at all kind of shit to try to make some sense of it all.

Let's start with the Bill Parcells' Theory:

You are what your record says you are.

If that is the case, the Eagles were the 21st best team in the league, which is the 12 worst, which matches their draft pick we gave CLE. So 12 make the dance, we were 21st. Not real close, but not too far away. So 21st as a start.

Now how about the opinion polls, the mathematical and statistical models? What did they say that Parcells didn't know?

Well, interestingly enough, some of them painted a prettier picture that our record, and sure enough, some worse. This is a bit confusing.

On the good side:

Football Outsiders had us ranked 4th. Yes 4th! NE, DAL, ATL, PHI, PIT, KC. (Remember Sesame Street? Which one don't belong with the others?) They used very advanced ratings that compare how we did on every play compared to what the historical average outcome was for a play of the same down and distance. It is adjusted for the strength of the opponent. So if most teams gain 2 yards on a 3rd and four run play vs BAL and we gained 3 yards, then good for us. If BAL has a great run defense, that 3 yards might be better than four yards against a lesser run defense. I think this rating shows how much impact our schedule had on the W-L. Our strength of schedule was rated #1 in the league. Maybe on an average schedule we are 9-7. And what if the refs don't cost that DET game, what if the most penalized team at that time, DET, really did have more than the 2 called? And what if we didn't have 14 penalties? Is 10-6 unreasonable? I don't think so.

Sagarin Ratings has us the 8th best team in the NFL. They use four different statistical models and average them out and we're pretty close to 8th in all of them. I have found them to be the closest site at predicting what the lines should be and thus the better winning percentage for choosing game outcomes.

Five Thirty Eight prediction site may have had an off year predicting Presidential elections, but they have a pretty good record and analysis. They have us rated 17th. We were much higher until the blowout loss to CIN. We never recovered from that in their rankings.

On the bad side:

Pro Football Focus had us ranked 22nd. They also use advanced stats but I'm not sure all of the details of how they do it.

ESPN has us rated 23rd. I think there is more opinion in these that hard core stats, but it shows not many are high on Pedey and the boys in Bristol, CT.

Covers.com is a statistical predictor and they have us rated 23rd. What I noticed about this site is that it seems like prior year performance counts for a lot, and it takes a while for last year's good teams to move down the charts even when they suck this year. ARI is 9th, DEN 11, CIN 15th and CAR 21st. Not much elasticity in these rankings IMO.

Lastly, What If Sports ranks us a lowly 26th. Yep. What they do is put a bunch of stats in the computer and play every team home and away many times and they compute the winning percentage of the thousands of games. We had a winning percentage of 39.5% and lost by an average of 3.8 points per game, 26th best winning percentage in the league! I'll admit this is a little scary in that the lowest playoff team was HOU at 14th and highest non playoff team was IND at 9th. FWIW, this site sucked at predicting games this year.

There you have it, 4th to 26th. I've never seen such a wide array of statistical performance for a season.

Me? I'll use the Parcells theory with a big adjustment for strength of schedule. I'll start at 7-9 and I would go to 9-7 on an average schedule. The top 12 makes the playoffs, 9-7 puts us next three so I'll say 13th-16th, slightly above average.
=======================================================================
How did our units and players do versus the others?

Offense - rated 16th in yards/game, 16th in points/game
Defense - rated 13th in yards/game, 12th in points/game
Those appear to be two average "ish" units at first glance

How about the more detailed Football Outsiders, how do they rank our units? All the stats below are form Football Outsiders.

Offense - 26th, Defense 4th, Special Teams - 1st.
Last year our O was 22nd, D was 17th.

Our O was rated 25th in passing, 9th in running
Our D was rated 2nd vs Pass and 13th in rush defense. That's startling. Is our seemingly weak Pass D a large product of the tough offense we faced?

The OL was rated 13th in rushing, 10th in passing. So if the OL rated that good and the passing game was rated so bad............Wentz and his WR's were the cause!

Speaking of Wentz:

In passer rating he finished 25th (Bradford 6th)
In QBR finished 24th (Bradford 8th)
In Football Outsiders, he was 28th (Bradford 17th)

And our stellar WR's? Here are their ranks among their peers, keeping in mind there are 32 teams
Matthews = 76th, DGB 81st, Agholar 87th. That equates to no #1 WR, no #2 WR and three #3 WR's!! Piss poor!

Mathews at RB was ranked 19th among those with 100+ carries. NO others had over 100 carries.

TE - Ertz 17th, Burton 44th

Our Defensive Line? Despite some disappointment, that unit graded out well:

DL vs Run = 2nd, vs Pass = 11th

And the largest jump in any statistical category??

The much ballyhooed Time of Possession.

Last year were last in the league at 25:51 per game,this year we were 1st at 32:21 per game!!

However, our offense regressed even though we held onto the ball, falling to 26th on FO from 22nd last year.
It did have a good effect on D, rising to 4th this year from 17th last year.

So at least it helped one unit. It made for easier bathroom and food breaks.

On offense, what did we do with that extra time? Not much. Our yards per play dropped from 23rd in the league last year to 29th this year!! Maybe bonding in the huddle?
======================================================================
So there you go, a bunch of stats to slice and dice the year. I'm sure there are bits and pieces that folks will debate. Hopefully you will find something interesting buried in here.

My take from it is we are an average team, not far from the playoffs door step but worlds away from serious contention. From my previous question, it seems that everyone expects playoffs within the next two season, with double those expecting it next year than two years from now.

However, they can't manage this team as if it's almost a playoff team. They need to manage it as if it is worlds away from the promised land and scout every player, spend every cap dollar into making it happen.

56 fucking years.

Jeffrey and Howie, manage the team like that bothers you as much is it does me.
Zero
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Jan 4 2017, 09:29 PM) *
So there you go, a bunch of stats to slice and dice the year. I'm sure there are bits and pieces that folks will debate. Hopefully you will find something interesting buried in here.

My take from it is we are an average team, not far from the playoffs door step but worlds away from serious contention. From my previous question, it seems that everyone expects playoffs within the next two season, with double those expecting it next year than two years from now.

However, they can't manage this team as if it's almost a playoff team. They need to manage it as if it is worlds away from the promised land and scout every player, spend every cap dollar into making it happen.

It's no wonder you're MikeyNumbers. laugh.gif

I don't think this is all that complicated. A team that was selectively decimated led by a rookie HC and rookie QB. Almost impossible to put your finger on. I'm really interested to see how they operate from now through April.
Joegrane
Thanks for gathering the abundance of stats!

The huge variety of opinions about the team is really strange.

Wow, I did not realize the time of possession went from roughly last to first.

Was the talent and coaching on D so much better this year or was the ToP a big factor?

I very much agree with your summary assessment below.

The encouraging factor for me is that the team had a huge hole at #1 WR and big holes at #1 CB and backup OT. The latter seems to be plugged with the development of Big V. I think they can plug the other two somewhat in the draft and free agency.

Therefore I think this team can improve next year.

The biggest negative I see on the horizon is the pending retirement of two of the best players--Sproles and J Peters. They could take a step forward next year to solid playoff contender--like the Skins were this year--but not improve at all in 2018.

On a positive side, the retirement of Sproles and Peters, along with the likely loss of C Daniel's bloated contract will give the Eagles cap space to make deals. As a solid playoff contender, they will be in better shape to attract high priced talent--maybe a true #1 WR. By then we will all know what they have in DGB and N. Agholor.
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Jan 4 2017, 09:29 PM) *
...
And the largest jump in any statistical category??

The much ballyhooed Time of Possession.

Last year were last in the league at 25:51 per game,this year we were 1st at 32:21 per game!!
...

My take from it is we are an average team, not far from the playoffs door step but worlds away from serious contention. From my previous question, it seems that everyone expects playoffs within the next two season, with double those expecting it next year than two years from now.
...
Zero
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Jan 5 2017, 10:30 AM) *
The biggest negative I see on the horizon is the pending retirement of two of the best players--Sproles and J Peters. They could take a step forward next year to solid playoff contender--like the Skins were this year--but not improve at all in 2018.

They won't be able to replace either of them, but Johnson will be the new LT and Marshall will fill the Sproles roll. Johnson should be a good LT and I'm encouraged with Marshall after seeing his limited play against Dallas.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (Zero @ Jan 5 2017, 10:49 AM) *
They won't be able to replace either of them, but Johnson will be the new LT and Marshall will fill the Sproles roll. Johnson should be a good LT and I'm encouraged with Marshall after seeing his limited play against Dallas.


I agree on Johnson...he is a good tackle on either side......don't agree on Marshall......I saw a few nice runs through big holes but most of his runs were terrible....always looking for a jump cut. They will keep looking is my guess.
This is a "lo-fi" version of our main content. To view the full version with more information, formatting and images, please click here.
Invision Power Board © 2001-2017 Invision Power Services, Inc.