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SAM I Am
I liked going for the 2 there. Just didn't work out.
nephillymike
Vegas not happy.

Legs will be broken.

They thought capable teams would get two for the W.

Birds covered. Vegas will survive.

El Cubano
HOW THE FUCK DO YOU NOT SEND IT INTO OT?!?!
SAM I Am
QUOTE (El Cubano @ Dec 18 2016, 04:15 PM) *
HOW THE FUCK DO YOU NOT SEND IT INTO OT?!?!

They had nothing to lose --- except for a meaningless game. Fuck OT. Go for it and end it right there, one way or the other.
JeeQ
I loved it. Was so happy when they went for it. Pedey is turning into my kind of coach
Rick
I understand the mentality...nothing really to lose, etc. However, I think you kick the PAT and go into OT and hope for the best. Why? Wentz finally got you a comeback in the 4th quarter. Lots of good vibes there. All of those good vibes collapse on the failed 2-point conversion. You knew the Ravens weren't going to lay down on that one.

I'd have been thrilled if it worked. But I still would have said the same thing.

Honestly, I thought they were getting blown out in this game. Nice to see them trying to step up.

I'm most disappointed with the defense to be quite honest. I didn't expect much of anything from a very depleted offense that didn't start with much before being depleted. I expected much better out of this defense (for the past many games). Nice to see Cox getting some pressure but he's got to do it when he's double-teamed, not just when 1-1.
Zero
QUOTE (JeeQ @ Dec 18 2016, 04:24 PM) *
I loved it. Was so happy when they went for it. Pedey is turning into my kind of coach

I have to call bullshit on this. The players want to win. They don't give a shit about nothing to play for, they want to win and they're losing confidence in Pederson IMO. He's like a guy with a gambling addiction, taking chances is great once in awhile but he's the guy who thinks the next one's going to dig him out and he bets the house.
Joegrane
The Eagles D played pretty well except for a couple of big plays.

The O was able to move the ball, but CW has a mediocre day with lack of accuracy.

So the only reason to go for 2 was to earn a L and a higher draft spot.

Why was J Mills playing so much on the outside? Is Mckelvin injured. Mills cost them on a couple of big plays but also made a couple of plays early. I think he is better in the slot. I like his fight. I expect his technique to improve. I'll take him on my team. I think he will be the slot CB next year and for quite a few years.

The D actually showed up for a road game! Unfortunately they got beaten on a few costly big plays.

The 3 TE offense works for the Eagles. That was impressive in the 2nd half. I suppose by putting the TE's on the same side as the rookie OG playing OT, you put the rookie back into an OG situation.

N Agholor has such low football IQ. I don't know how you call his number on 3rd down. He just finds a way to make a mental mistake.

Raven's D knew that CW likes to throw to Burton.

I really look forward to the film analysis of CW's passing. He was off much of the game.

I hope Lane Johnson is working hard to get back into game shape. If he is in shape, I think the Eagles have a chance to win the final two games and take some momentum into next year. Of course loosing the final two would help their draft position. I'm not so sure the Ws and momentum matter for attracting FAs. They don't seem to have the $ for it anyway.


QUOTE (JeeQ @ Dec 18 2016, 04:24 PM) *
I loved it. Was so happy when they went for it. Pedey is turning into my kind of coach

nephillymike
QUOTE (Zero @ Dec 18 2016, 05:28 PM) *
I have to call bullshit on this. The players want to win. They don't give a shit about nothing to play for, they want to win and they're losing confidence in Pederson IMO. He's like a guy with a gambling addiction, taking chances is great once in awhile but he's the guy who thinks the next one's going to dig him out and he bets the house.



In poker parlance, going all in with 2-7 unsuited is pretty dumb.
Eyrie
QUOTE (Zero @ Dec 18 2016, 10:28 PM) *
I have to call bullshit on this. The players want to win. They don't give a shit about nothing to play for, they want to win and they're losing confidence in Pederson IMO. He's like a guy with a gambling addiction, taking chances is great once in awhile but he's the guy who thinks the next one's going to dig him out and he bets the house.

Pederson gave the offense a chance to win the game with that one play and all the momentum that we needed.

What happens if it goes to OT and we lose the toss, then the Ravens score a TD? Game over.

The players can feel good about the fourth quarter come back and their coach having faith in them, just as he regularly backs them on fourth and short.
Zero
QUOTE (Eyrie @ Dec 18 2016, 05:59 PM) *
Pederson gave the offense a chance to win the game with that one play and all the momentum that we needed.

What happens if it goes to OT and we lose the toss, then the Ravens score a TD? Game over.

The players can feel good about the fourth quarter come back and their coach having faith in them, just as he regularly backs them on fourth and short.

Eagles passing game was struggling ... again. The running game was what kept them alive. The defense was playing well, going for 2 told them he didn't have confidence they could continue it. Confidence in something that isn't working vs. no confidence in something that is working doesn't make sense.
SAM I Am
QUOTE (Zero @ Dec 18 2016, 06:05 PM) *
going for 2 told them he didn't have confidence they could continue it.

No. Going for 2 there told them he had confidence in them that they could get 2 yards. It just didn't work out.

If this game would have had playoff implications, my guess is he would have kicked the extra point.
Zero
QUOTE (SAM I Am @ Dec 18 2016, 06:13 PM) *
No. Going for 2 there told them he had confidence in them that they could get 2 yards. It just didn't work out.

I was referring to the defense, not the offense. The odds favored the extra point and letting the defense stop them if they got the ball. The running game was working but the passing game was struggling, but he calls a pass in tight quarters. Dumb, if you ask me.
CT_Eagle
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Dec 18 2016, 10:34 PM) *
So the only reason to go for 2 was to earn a L and a higher draft spot.


Cle has the Eagle's first round pick so there is no higher draft pick to be had by taking an L yesterday. I don't care about sliding up or down by a few spots in the 2nd round.
Eyrie
QUOTE (Zero @ Dec 18 2016, 11:05 PM) *
Eagles passing game was struggling ... again. The running game was what kept them alive. The defense was playing well, going for 2 told them he didn't have confidence they could continue it. Confidence in something that isn't working vs. no confidence in something that is working doesn't make sense.

In which case the correct play call was a run and not a pass, as happened when we did make the two point conversion in the second quarter.

Our defence has no reason to think that Pederson had no faith in them. If anything, the decision to go for it would reflect our offensive struggles as Pederson may not have ben confident that we'd get back into scoring range had the game gone into OT.



The Franchise
'Close but no Cigar' should be the theme for this entire year.

6 of our 8 losses have been by one score. One actual playmaker on offense (and better situational coaching) could be the difference between hoping for a higher draft pick and getting a first round bye in the playoffs.

Phits
QUOTE (JeeQ @ Dec 18 2016, 04:24 PM) *
I loved it. Was so happy when they went for it. Pedey is turning into my kind of coach

I was glad they went for 2. It showed the guts that I want in a HC. At this point in the season, with nothing to play for, there was nothing to lose.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (Phits @ Dec 19 2016, 07:22 PM) *
I was glad they went for 2. It showed the guts that I want in a HC. At this point in the season, with nothing to play for, there was nothing to lose.


Agree completely....a loss was no big deal but the move alone showed confidence....success would have been huge

Moreover no one wants OT to risk injury for a meaningless game for the Eagles
SAM I Am
QUOTE (Eyrie @ Dec 18 2016, 05:59 PM) *
Pederson gave the offense a chance to win the game with that one play and all the momentum that we needed.

What happens if it goes to OT and we lose the toss, then the Ravens score a TD? Game over.

The players can feel good about the fourth quarter come back and their coach having faith in them, just as he regularly backs them on fourth and short.

Agreed. To be honest with you, with the extra point now being a 33 yard field goal, if it was up to me, I'd go for 2 after every touchdown. Hey guys, we need two freaking yards, go out there and get it. And if it is for the win I tell them the same thing, and add, or would you rather we flip a coin and take our chances on that instead?
Phits
QUOTE (SAM I Am @ Dec 20 2016, 11:28 AM) *
Agreed. To be honest with you, with the extra point now being a 33 yard field goal, if it was up to me, I'd go for 2 after every touchdown. Hey guys, we need two freaking yards, go out there and get it. And if it is for the win I tell them the same thing, and add, or would you rather we flip a coin and take our chances on that instead of?

Yep. I'm on board with this.
JeeQ
QUOTE (SAM I Am @ Dec 20 2016, 09:28 AM) *
Agreed. To be honest with you, with the extra point now being a 33 yard field goal, if it was up to me, I'd go for 2 after every touchdown. Hey guys, we need two freaking yards, go out there and get it. And if it is for the win I tell them the same thing, and add, or would you rather we flip a coin and take our chances on that instead?


Eagles lead the league in 4th down conversion attempts but more importantly the Eagles lead the league in 4th down conversions

Pedey shows a lot of balls and a lot of trust in his players and I want to see what he does with actual weapons at his disposal.
The Franchise
QUOTE (SAM I Am @ Dec 20 2016, 12:28 PM) *
Agreed. To be honest with you, with the extra point now being a 33 yard field goal, if it was up to me, I'd go for 2 after every touchdown. Hey guys, we need two freaking yards, go out there and get it. And if it is for the win I tell them the same thing, and add, or would you rather we flip a coin and take our chances on that instead?


A 33-yard field goal should be considered almost automatic. 5 teams haven't missed one this year. Only 5 teams have XP conversion percentages of less than 90%.

The percentage of successful 2-point conversions around the league is dramatically lower, albeit with a much smaller sample size. Point being, it simply isn't good strategy to go for it every time. I like Pederson's decision there, but if we were competing for a playoff spot I'm sure thousands of remote controls would've gone through televisions after that.....
nephillymike
Going thru my version of the math on that play:

With the wind being what it was at that time of the game, I estimated the 90% success rate to be 75% in those winds. Not only windy, but untied gusts.

I estimate our success in the two point conversion to be 48% the league average.

The historical win % of a 4.5 pt road dog is about 30%.

So to win, we either had to make the 2 pot conversion, a 48% chance OR

Kick the extra point and win the game as a road dog of 4.5 points
Is 75% x 30% = 22.5%.

Even if you give the wind kick the 90% historical rate you get 90%x30% = 27%.

Even if you think it was a 90% kick and an even shot at winning in OT = 45%.

Mikeynumbers says go for two, anywhere from a 3% advantage to a 26% advantage.



The Franchise
QUOTE
With the wind being what it was at that time of the game, I estimated the 90% success rate to be 75% in those winds. Not only windy, but untied gusts.


It's actually over 80% from that distance with 20-30 mph winds.



QUOTE
I estimate our success in the two point conversion to be 48% the league average.


We're 4 of 7 I believe, 57%. Or 4 of 6 heading into last week, so 66%.

QUOTE
The historical win % of a 4.5 pt road dog is about 30%.


Any coach who is concerned with the spread in that situation should immediately be fired and placed into rehab or Gambler's Anonymous.

So basically, it's 80% versus 57% or 66%. As I said, I'm perfectly ok with Pederson going for it there, the season is over and it's a chance to steal a win in a tough road game and give your guys some confidence. However, if we were 8-5 and he did that, I'd be calling for his head.

QUOTE
Mikeynumbers says go for two, anywhere from a 3% advantage to a 26% advantage.



nephillymike
QUOTE (The Franchise @ Dec 21 2016, 02:29 PM) *
It's actually over 80% from that distance with 20-30 mph winds.





We're 4 of 7 I believe, 57%. Or 4 of 6 heading into last week, so 66%.



Any coach who is concerned with the spread in that situation should immediately be fired and placed into rehab or Gambler's Anonymous.

So basically, it's 80% versus 57% or 66%. As I said, I'm perfectly ok with Pederson going for it there, the season is over and it's a chance to steal a win in a tough road game and give your guys some confidence. However, if we were 8-5 and he did that, I'd be calling for his head.





Hey Franchise, very impressed with the wind and distance stat. That's some high falootin' research.

However, making the extra point doesn't win the game.

You need to take the chance of making the extra point and times it by the chance of winning in OT.

So in your stats 80% x 50% = 40% chance if we kick (if we're even w BAL)

Versus

57% or 66% on the conversion, using your numbers.

The kick does nothing else but give you a chance to win.

The 2 points win the game.
The Franchise
QUOTE
Hey Franchise, very impressed with the wind and distance stat. That's some high falootin' research.


I just googled something along the lines of 'wind affecting field goals' and checked out a few hits, but I'll take your praise.

QUOTE
You need to take the chance of making the extra point and times it by the chance of winning in OT.

So in your stats 80% x 50% = 40% chance if we kick (if we're even w BAL)


I disagree with that method of thinking. A kick almost definitely gets you a fresh chance to win in OT. A 2PA gives you a little bit better than a coin flip of immediately winning or losing the game. When you look at the amount of extra point attempts as opposed to 2 point attempts this year, it's clear coaches almost always go with the point. Again, I'm cool with his decision. But if he did that with a playoff spot on the line, forget it.

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