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nephillymike
I looked at three sites for predictions on the remaining games for the six most likely NFC wild card contenders: DET, NYG, WAS, MIN, PHI, TB

I also assumed that ATL, DAL and SEA would win their divisions, and that any team not at least 5-5 at this spot is not in the mix.

Here are the predicted final records of those involved:

Team..........538.............Covers.com............Sagarin
WAS..........9-6-1..............9-6-1...................9-6-1.........all have losses @DAL by 5.5, 6.5 and 8.5 computed margins
MIN...........10-6.................9-7.....................11-5.........538 and Covers have a loss @ DET, today while Sagarin a 1 pt win
PHI.............9-7..................9-7.....................10-6.........all have wins vs GB by 5.5, 5.5 and 6 computed margins
DET.............9-7..................9-7......................8-8..........see MIN for today
NYG............9-7..................9-7......................9-7..........all have wins @ CLE Sun by 7.5, 8, 8.5 computed margins
TB..............5-11................6-10....................7-9...........a playoff non factor by all three sources
Playoff seedings:
NFCN champ..MIN.............DET (A)................MIN
WC#1............WAS............WAS.....................PHI
WC#2............DET( B ).........PHI ( C )..............WAS
================================
Tiebreaker Details:
(A) With a predicted win today by Covers.com, DET wins season head to head vs MIN 2-0

( B ) A 3 way tie for 2nd WC spot among PHI, NYG, DET. 1st rule is that the two teams in the division go into divisional tiebreaker to get a tb winner to go against team in other division. We will have split head to head after our predicted win at home vs NYG. We beat NYG based on our predicted 3-3 NFCE record vs NYG predicted 2-4 NFCE record. We then go against DET and lose out based on our head to head loss to the refs vs DET.

( C ) A 3 way tie for 2nd WC spot among PHI, NYG, MIN. 1st rule is that the two teams in the division go into divisional tiebreaker to get a tb winner to go against team in other division. We will have split head to head after our predicted win at home vs NYG. We beat NYG based on our predicted 3-3 NFCE record vs NYG predicted 2-4 NFCE record. We then go against MIN and win out based on our head to head victory over MIN.

The above assumes the computed favorites, whether by 1/2 point or 15 points after adjusting for home field,, wins every game.

One site computes predicted wins based on the probability that they'll win each game. For example if the Eagles are expected to have a 60% chance of beating GB, they will get 0.6 wins for that game etc and they just add them all up to get predicted wins. Under that method, our chances are not as good, as below are the computed wins and the chance of getting a wildcard bid by each team:

Team....Pred. Wins.....WC Bid%
NYG.........9.9................55%
WAS.........9.5...............51%
====================================
PHI..........8.4................26%
MIN.........9.7................16% (have a 49% to win the North)
DET.........9.2.................12% (have a 46% to win the North)

So for optimistic reasons, I say the heck with the predicted wins theory.

I'll take the two out of three chances in the top half of this page.

And remember, hold your nose and hope for a DAL win.

Also need a DET win to lessen the chances of losing out in a wc tb wit them as shown in the 538 scenario above.
Zero
I'll get hate for saying this, but making the playoffs this year isn't a priority for me. I think it would be good experience for the young players, but learning the systems and getting to know how the player beside him is going to react is what's important. Letting 11 see what top defenses will do to try to confuse him and shake him and having him learn how to defeat it, that's important.

The key players are returning except for Logan and Carroll. Next year is a year for expectations, this year is a year for learning. If they can keep Logan and Carroll plus add a FA WR, draft a top CB, a solid RB and continue to build the OL my expectations will be very high. Playing in a playoff game this year will be a bonus but I'm more interested in them learning how to win tough games.
Phits
QUOTE (Zero @ Nov 24 2016, 10:18 AM) *
I'll get hate for saying this, but making the playoffs this year isn't a priority for me. I think it would be good experience for the young players, but learning the systems and getting to know how the player beside him is going to react is what's important. Letting 11 see what top defenses will do to try to confuse him and shake him and having him learn how to defeat it, that's important.

The key players are returning except for Logan and Carroll. Next year is a year for expectations, this year is a year for learning. If they can keep Logan and Carroll plus add a FA WR, draft a top CB, a solid RB and continue to build the OL my expectations will be very high. Playing in a playoff game this year will be a bonus but I'm more interested in them learning how to win tough games.

I'm with you. That was my expectation heading into the season. I cautioned against the optimism from the early season returns.

I really feel that it takes 3 seasons for a team to really come together. There are exceptions, but you have to give a franchise the chance. That was my main issue with the end of the Chip era. You can't give the keys to the kingdom to a person and in that same season kick them to the curb. You need time for the vision to come to fruition.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Phits @ Nov 24 2016, 01:23 PM) *
I'm with you. That was my expectation heading into the season. I cautioned against the optimism from the early season returns.

I really feel that it takes 3 seasons for a team to really come together. There are exceptions, but you have to give a franchise the chance. That was my main issue with the end of the Chip era. You can't give the keys to the kingdom to a person and in that same season kick them to the curb. You need time for the vision to come to fruition.

The problem with this is that you need to believe that the future of the rookies and first four year players and those not drafted yet on this team are better than the short term future of the players we have now.

I don't think it is, thus the urgency.

I think subconsciously, many Philadelphians prefer the slow build as it defers the pressure of having to win. History shows we don't win well. Avoidance behavior kicks in.
Joegrane
Even though I agree with Mike that they have a reasonable shot at a WC, I agree with Zero that it is not a high priority for this year. I'd almost prefer that they come close after finishing the season strong, but maybe loose a tiebreaker to Det. That would hopefully be a teaching point from that Det game about # penalties, late turnovers, etc.

QUOTE (Zero @ Nov 24 2016, 11:18 AM) *
I'll get hate for saying this, but making the playoffs this year isn't a priority for me. I...


I agree almost entirely about your priorities below. I suppose they'll prefer to keep McKelvin so they won't have to start a rookie CB. Maybe Brooks will not be back and J Mills will man the slot.

I disagree about very high expectations for next year. I think the sports writers will only have the Eagles as strong playoff contenders.

There are still decisions to be made about J Peters, R Matthews and C Barwin. I won't be surprised of one or more of them becomes a cap casualty. Celek is another question mark.

QUOTE
The key players are returning except for Logan and Carroll. Next year is a year for expectations, this year is a year for learning. If they can keep Logan and Carroll plus add a FA WR, draft a top CB, a solid RB and continue to build the OL my expectations will be very high. Playing in a playoff game this year will be a bonus but I'm more interested in them learning how to win tough games.


Rick
QUOTE (Zero @ Nov 24 2016, 11:18 AM) *
I'll get hate for saying this, but making the playoffs this year isn't a priority for me.

No hate here. While I'll be pulling for them to make the playoffs, I won't be upset if they don't. They aren't doing anything in the playoffs--maybe a first-round upset?--so it's not like they have a legitimate shot at winning the SB.

Keep guys healthy and get them experience (Wentz) and try and build a team around him in the offseason.
Eyrie
Have to agree with the realists here.

Making the playoffs would be nice, but it's not essential given the current state of the roster.
SAM I Am
QUOTE (Zero @ Nov 24 2016, 11:18 AM) *
I'll get hate for saying this, but making the playoffs this year isn't a priority for me. I think it would be good experience for the young players, but learning the systems and getting to know how the player beside him is going to react is what's important. Letting 11 see what top defenses will do to try to confuse him and shake him and having him learn how to defeat it, that's important.

The key players are returning except for Logan and Carroll. Next year is a year for expectations, this year is a year for learning. If they can keep Logan and Carroll plus add a FA WR, draft a top CB, a solid RB and continue to build the OL my expectations will be very high. Playing in a playoff game this year will be a bonus but I'm more interested in them learning how to win tough games.

You won't get any hate from me. Not making the playoffs this year was totally expected as far as I am concerned. I mean come on. A rookie HC and a rookie QB? I'm happy they are going to do better than the 6 wins I predicted.

Even if they did somehow manage to back into the playoffs, it would be one and done. But, it would be a good experience for not just for the young players, but all of them.

Nope, they are still a year away from the playoffs, and at least another year away from doing something once they get there. And of course all of this depends on how well their personnel moves pan out in the offseason.

Gotta get some weapons around Wentz. If they don't do that, they aren't going anywhere.
The Franchise
Take a Xanax buddy.

It's pretty simple - we control our own destiny, and have wiggle room for at least one loss. Of course we have to beat Washington next time. We should be kissing TB's ass for essentially guaranteeing Dallas has homefield wrapped up by week 17, giving us an automatic win at the end of the year that will be crucial.

As for the playoffs, the only team I never want to face in January is Seattle. We can beat anyone else, and Dallas won't beat them IMO.
Pila
I'm gonna double down on my undefeated season. I've just had to move up the beginning of the season by a few weeks, that's all.
Phits
QUOTE (The Franchise @ Nov 28 2016, 01:35 PM) *
Take a Xanax buddy.

It's pretty simple - we control our own destiny, and have wiggle room for at least one loss. Of course we have to beat Washington next time. We should be kissing TB's ass for essentially guaranteeing Dallas has homefield wrapped up by week 17, giving us an automatic win at the end of the year that will be crucial.

As for the playoffs, the only team I never want to face in January is Seattle. We can beat anyone else, and Dallas won't beat them IMO.

That Dallas "loss" may depend on whether Romo is auditioning for his next team.
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