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nephillymike
So I just took a look at a bunch of sources to get a feel what others thought of this team and our chances.

If you look at power ratings, here is where we were ranked:

Football Outsiders = 1st (not a misprint)
Jeff Sagarin = 6th
FiveThirtyEight = 8th
Covers.com = 13th
WhatIfSports = 14th

None of them expect us to win this week, but three think we're playoff caliber, and two right on the edge.

Speaking of Playoff Probabilities, here's what three sites who compute playoff possibilities think for the NFC chances:

Team........538.......FO........SCS
DAL...........97%....98%......99%
SEA...........95%....96%......92%
ATL............80%....86%......83%
MIN...........52%....58%......58%
NYG...........61%....57%......46%
PHI............37%....62%......57%
====================
DET............57%....29%......48%
WAS...........42%....46%......39%
ARI.............27%....11%......33%
GB..............15%....23%......15%

FO = Football Outsiders, SCS = Sports Club Stats

To make it more impressive, while none of the site calculate an Eagles win this week, all have DET, WAS and NYG winning, and all but two have MIN beating ARI. So even if we lose a game in the playoff race to all four of those others around us, we STILL are expected to get in.

How's that for a positive spin from the Axis for a Sunday morning?

From Football Outsiders, here are some interesting rankings in the entire NFL:

Team Efficiency = 1st
Team Defense = 1st
Team Special Teams = 1st
Team Offense = 20th

Off. Line:
Run Blocking = 6th
Pass Blocking = 20th

Def. Line:
Run Defense = 4th
Pass Defense = 2nd

Rankings of Key Personnel:
Wentz =24th
R. Mathews = 23rd
J. Matthews = 58th
N. Agholar = 73rd
Z. Ertz = 24th
T. Burton = 25th

Our Snap Counts in Skill Positions for the ATL game (out of 79 Offensive Snaps:

J. Matthews =75
N. Agholar = 72 (why dear God, why??)
Z. Ertz = 59
D. Green-Beckam = 44 (oh, that's why!)
D. Sproles = 31
B. Celek = 28
R. Mathews = 26
W. Smallwood = 19
B. Treggs = 13
T. Burton = 9
K. Barner = 3

Assuming 75 off snaps again today and our matchup vs SEA, here are my target offensive sets:

2WR - 1RB - 2TE = 40
2WR - 2RB - 1TE = 20
3WR - 1RB - 1TE = 10
3WR - 0RB - 2TE = 5

My target snaps by position:

WR
Mathews =75
Treggs = 30
Agholar =30 (I don't throw it to him once, total decoy)
DGB = 30
remember I run NA and DGB long on Shermans side all day long to keep him busy and set him up for Treggs deep catches.

TE
Ertz = 65
Burton = 30 (Burton can be big in this game)
Celek = 25

RB
Mathews = 35
Sproles = 35
Barner = 10 (I think his speed and quickness will help)
Smallwood = 10

That's my plan. This lineup and a ST TD and another ST gift wrapped FG and we get a win.
Joegrane
I'm surprised at how highly they have Min rated. A Peterson is not due back any time soon, correct? Even when he returns they will still have that 2nd string O Line in front of him.

I'm also surprised at how low the Skins are rated. I am concerned about that game against them. The Eagles don't match up very well against them. Their big O Line handles the Eagles D Line rather well. Their many offensive weapons are too much for the Eagles weak outside CBs. Their pass rush presents a problem as well, although Big V + the offensive scheme have improved admirably since the first Skins game.

After a number of years of mediocrity, it seems that the NFC East could have the NFC's #1 seed plus two Wild Card teams. That is not easy to do since you'd expect those teams to beat each other up and so suffer in the W-L column.

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Nov 20 2016, 11:52 AM) *
So I just took a look at a bunch of sources to get a feel what others thought of this team and our chances.
...

None of them expect us to win this week, but three think we're playoff caliber, and two right on the edge.

Speaking of Playoff Probabilities, here's what three sites who compute playoff possibilities think for the NFC chances:

Team........538.......FO........SCS
DAL...........97%....98%......99%
SEA...........95%....96%......92%
ATL............80%....86%......83%
MIN...........52%....58%......58%
NYG...........61%....57%......46%
PHI............37%....62%......57%
====================
DET............57%....29%......48%
WAS...........42%....46%......39%
ARI.............27%....11%......33%
GB..............15%....23%......15%

FO = Football Outsiders, SCS = Sports Club Stats

....

nephillymike
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Nov 20 2016, 02:35 PM) *
I'm surprised at how highly they have Min rated. A Peterson is not due back any time soon, correct? Even when he returns they will still have that 2nd string O Line in front of him.

I'm also surprised at how low the Skins are rated. I am concerned about that game against them. The Eagles don't match up very well against them. Their big O Line handles the Eagles D Line rather well. Their many offensive weapons are too much for the Eagles weak outside CBs. Their pass rush presents a problem as well, although Big V + the offensive scheme have improved admirably since the first Skins game.

After a number of years of mediocrity, it seems that the NFC East could have the NFC's #1 seed plus two Wild Card teams. That is not easy to do since you'd expect those teams to beat each other up and so suffer in the W-L column.


I was a little surprised too.

I am not overly concerned with the Skins. We'll beat them here next time.
eagleaddict
Expert opinion isn't putting this undisciplined trash in the playoffs. This is an 8-8 team at best no matter how many top teams they beat. Every game is a rerun- costly penalties, huge drops, poor clock management to end a half, road woes, etc etc etc.
Joegrane
They are going to have an opportunity to prove you--and me--wrong about that.

The good news is that they have four important games at home and two below average AFC teams on the road. They also get L Johnson back for the final two games if I recall correctly. It is now setup fairly nicely for them. If they are truly a playoff caliber team, they will have a fair opportunity to show it.

The bad news is that they got nicked up in Seattle and will probably need to rely more on the WRs.

QUOTE (eagleaddict @ Nov 20 2016, 07:03 PM) *
Expert opinion isn't putting this undisciplined trash in the playoffs. This is an 8-8 team at best no matter how many top teams they beat. Every game is a rerun- costly penalties, huge drops, poor clock management to end a half, road woes, etc etc etc.
The Franchise
It's hard to really evaluate this team. Obviously our biggest glaring hole is WR, but we've consistently put up points in every game other than against Seattle, and that was including a big TD called back. The defense has been good all things considered. You can certainly argue that Pederson blunders have cost us 2 divisional games, one against a 9-1 team.

Basically, this squad looks to be a frustrating bunch to watch, and should provide us with several facepalms while showing great flashes. Getting someone on the field who can catch the ball could change everything.
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