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nephillymike
http://www.phillymag.com/birds247/2016/06/...i/#more-3112398

It's interesting that Matthews is already deemed to be a slot only WR.

That's not a good sign to me and as the one guy suggests, it likely will mean less snaps for him and by default, more snaps for WR's that frankly, aren't that good.

Here is our distribution of offensive snaps by skill players last year. Curious as to who are the players you think should get the most snaps on this year's team:

J. Matthews 49, 74%
Ertz 49, 74%
Algohlar 46, 70%
Cooper 41, 62%
Huff 38, 58%
Celek 31, 47%
Murray 26, 39%
Barner 18, 27%
R. Mathews 11, 17%
Sproles 11, 17%
Burton 10, 15%

This was in a winning effort vs. NYG and I think all were healthy.

The positions not counted at OC. LG, RG, RT, LT and QB.

Take away those six spots and it leaves 5 spots of 66 offensive plays or a total of 330 snaps for these 5 skill spots.

The Eagles divided up these snaps by position as follows:

WR = 174 = 52.7%
TE = 90 = 27.3%
RB = 66 = 20.0%
Total = 330 = 100%

Replace Cooper with Randle and how do you divy up the snaps? Snaps will be a lot less with no tempo, but you can use %'s.

To me, the most dangerous weapons are Ertz, J. Matthews, R. Mathews and Sproles. Splitting the 5th skill spot 28-28-10 among the three position groups, here's the total breakdown:

RB1 = 66
RB2 = 28
RB Total = 94 = 29% (Mathews 40, Sproles 25, Barner 20, Smallwood 9)

WR1 = 66
WR2 = 66
WR3 = 28
WR Total = 160 = 48% (J. Matthews 50, Randle 40, Algohlar 40, Givens 30, Huff cut)

TE1 = 66
TE2 = 10
TE Total = 76 = 23% (Ertz 50, Celek 26)

This highlights the problem of having J. Matthews in the slot. Tough to find 50 snaps in the slot in Pedey's offense.
Eagle2720
It definitely worries me that our best WR is being labeled as a slot guy, especially when all the others haven't proven to be worthy of that WR1 job. I would've really liked a good WR sometime in the draft this year but there's no sense bringing up the past. Hopefully someone *cough last years 1st round pick cough* will step up.
Joegrane
My estimates are in brackets next to each player.

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Jun 7 2016, 09:41 PM) *
...

It's interesting that Matthews is already deemed to be a slot only WR.

That's not a good sign to me and as the one guy suggests, it likely will mean less snaps for him and by default, more snaps for WR's that frankly, aren't that good.

Here is our distribution of offensive snaps by skill players last year. Curious as to who are the players you think should get the most snaps on this year's team:

J. Matthews 49, 74% [ probably a little less if other WRs step up. He'll see some action on the outside in short yardage and Red Zone as a Cooper replacement. ]
Ertz 49, 74% [ same or more ]
Algohlar 46, 70% [ Don't expect him to earn that %. Some of it goes to Givens. ]
Cooper 41, 62% [ Replaced by Randle ]
Huff 38, 58% [ Less, some of which goes to Givens. Huff will see more snaps in the slot. ]
Celek 31, 47% [ Slightly less ]
Murray 26, 39% [ Snaps replaced by R Matthews ]
Barner 18, 27% [ Gone, most of the % replaced by rookie Smallwood ]
R. Mathews 11, 17% [ Replaced by FA RB signed after final cuts ]
Sproles 11, 17% [ A few more % ]
Burton 10, 15% [ same ]

This was in a winning effort vs. NYG and I think all were healthy.
...
mcnabbulous
The weirdest part of the Matthews "slot guy" designation is how he's not a prototypical slot guy at all.

I've always thought he was a bit stiff, which I'm wondering is what's keeping him from getting reps on the outside, but usually slot guys have quickness which Matthews can't replicate.

Overall, it's looking like he'll never live up to that early hype he received.
Joegrane
So how do you explain his nice production numbers relative to other young receivers?

I suppose one could say he has been the best option among a very poor group.

QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Jun 8 2016, 08:01 PM) *
The weirdest part of the Matthews "slot guy" designation is how he's not a prototypical slot guy at all.

I've always thought he was a bit stiff, which I'm wondering is what's keeping him from getting reps on the outside, but usually slot guys have quickness which Matthews can't replicate.

Overall, it's looking like he'll never live up to that early hype he received.

Zero
QUOTE (Eagle2720 @ Jun 8 2016, 12:28 PM) *
It definitely worries me that our best WR is being labeled as a slot guy, especially when all the others haven't proven to be worthy of that WR1 job. I would've really liked a good WR sometime in the draft this year but there's no sense bringing up the past. Hopefully someone *cough last years 1st round pick cough* will step up.

Haven't the Pats lived off of slot guys being their best WRs for a while?
nephillymike
When I get a chance, I will look up snaps by position for KC at the end of last year to get a feel of where Pedey may emphasize playing time.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Jun 8 2016, 10:39 PM) *
So how do you explain his nice production numbers relative to other young receivers?

I think Chip's offense put him in position to get open. We'll see how he translates to a more traditional offense.

QUOTE
I suppose one could say he has been the best option among a very poor group.

What group are you referring to? The Eagles group? Because he certainly isn't the best of his draft class.
nephillymike
Based on the last games of the year with people healthy, here's how KC and PHI split their snaps:
.........PHI..........KC
WR = 52.7%....44.9%
TE = 27.3%....30.5%
RB = 20.0%.....24.6%
Total = 100%..100.0%

They had 325 snaps, we had 330.

So if we went with their distribution, here are the changes in snaps in one game to get from PHI to be KC:

WR minus 12 snaps
TE plus 25 snaps
RB minus 13 snaps

I don't know if we should go that TE happy, but WR is our weakest group so I can see a cut back there.
Joegrane
Yes, good point about Chip. His tempo might be inflating Matthew's numbers.

We have not discussed that often. How will the loss of "tempo" affect offensive production. It shold help the D. I don't think we'll be able to compare last year's O with this year's very well due to the turnover. The Eagles seem to have patched some big holes, esp RG, but also WR depth.

Yes I'm referring to the Eagles group of receivers.

QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Jun 9 2016, 09:26 AM) *
I think Chip's offense put him in position to get open. We'll see how he translates to a more traditional offense.


What group are you referring to? The Eagles group? Because he certainly isn't the best of his draft class.

mcnabbulous
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Jun 9 2016, 09:12 PM) *
Yes, good point about Chip. His tempo might be inflating Matthew's numbers.

We have not discussed that often. How will the loss of "tempo" affect offensive production. It shold help the D. I don't think we'll be able to compare last year's O with this year's very well due to the turnover. The Eagles seem to have patched some big holes, esp RG, but also WR depth.

I suspect we're going to be very conservative on offense this year.

QUOTE
Yes I'm referring to the Eagles group of receivers.

Yeah, I mean what were the other options? Someone had to catch balls. We had 405 receptions last year. Our second leading wide receiver caught 27 balls.
Joegrane
If you mean few deep throws, I hear you. Sam has a history of that. Maybe his old buddy Givens will give him a few more opportunities to use his big arm.

However, Sam is in what is essentially a contract year. He will have more freedom to audible this year. Even though he has a couple of road graders on the O Line I think he'll be looking to pad his passing stats. The Eagles might be okay with that since it might make Sam more valuable at the end of the year.

I expect a Run-Pass ratio closer to Andy R's even with the improved O Line. I just don't expect many deep balls from Sam and those WRs.

QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Jun 9 2016, 10:59 PM) *
I suspect we're going to be very conservative on offense this year.

Reality Fan
If Givens makes the team you will see a bunch of deep balls to him and Randle. Givens set a record for consecutive games with a reception of 50 yards or more with Bradford at QB. Last year Bradford was 4th in plays over 40 yards despite being very conservative for the first 4 games and then slowly amping it up. There is a big difference between not throwing deep and not having anyone to throw deep to.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Jun 9 2016, 11:12 PM) *
If you mean few deep throws, I hear you. Sam has a history of that. Maybe his old buddy Givens will give him a few more opportunities to use his big arm.

However, Sam is in what is essentially a contract year. He will have more freedom to audible this year. Even though he has a couple of road graders on the O Line I think he'll be looking to pad his passing stats. The Eagles might be okay with that since it might make Sam more valuable at the end of the year.

I expect a Run-Pass ratio closer to Andy R's even with the improved O Line. I just don't expect many deep balls from Sam and those WRs.

I disagree. I think we will be very run heavy and Sam will take shots deep off play action.
Joegrane
Interesting opinion, that has not been Sam's MO in the past.

Do think that because you expect that to be Pederson's philosophy?

That is not a typical West Coast MO.

I can see them doing some of what you describe with R Matthews in the backfield plus Givens at WR.

This team should give defenses many different "looks" due to the variety of personnel.

QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Jun 10 2016, 09:14 AM) *
I disagree. I think we will be very run heavy and Sam will take shots deep off play action.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Jun 10 2016, 01:51 PM) *
Interesting opinion, that has not been Sam's MO in the past.

Do think that because you expect that to be Pederson's philosophy?

That is not a typical West Coast MO.

I can see them doing some of what you describe with R Matthews in the backfield plus Givens at WR.

This team should give defenses many different "looks" due to the variety of personnel.


Just curious as to what you think Bradford's M.O. was? It was hard to throw deep in St. Louis with the crap he had with the Rams. When he had Givens they set a record for consecutive games with a completion over 50 yards.

I think Nabby is right.....expect a lot of play action downfield passing. Bradford will be looking to earn big bucks.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Jun 10 2016, 12:51 PM) *
Interesting opinion, that has not been Sam's MO in the past.

Do think that because you expect that to be Pederson's philosophy?

That is not a typical West Coast MO.

I can see them doing some of what you describe with R Matthews in the backfield plus Givens at WR.

This team should give defenses many different "looks" due to the variety of personnel.

I just expect us to be super run heavy and as a result, we'll be trying to setup bigger play stuff downfield.

I anticipate we'll rely heavily on defense over the next 2-3 years until Carson gets acclimated. Then we'll transition into a more offensive heavy team.
Joegrane
My impression is that he has been a dump-off specialist--with his fastballs frequently bouncing off of the hands of his receivers.

I was not aware of that degree of success with Givens.

We'll see if Givens still has that speed; however, with all of the depth at WR they should not have a problem keeping him fresh.

QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Jun 10 2016, 02:00 PM) *
Just curious as to what you think Bradford's M.O. was? It was hard to throw deep in St. Louis with the crap he had with the Rams. When he had Givens they set a record for consecutive games with a completion over 50 yards.

I think Nabby is right.....expect a lot of play action downfield passing. Bradford will be looking to earn big bucks.

Joegrane
We HAD WR depth. I hope the Sex Assault rumors are not true : (
http://www.csnphilly.com/philadelphia-eagl...-sexual-assault

QUOTE (Joegrane @ Jun 10 2016, 04:58 PM) *
My impression is that he has been a dump-off specialist--with his fastballs frequently bouncing off of the hands of his receivers.

I was not aware of that degree of success with Givens.

We'll see if Givens still has that speed; however, with all of the depth at WR they should not have a problem keeping him fresh.
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