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nephillymike
Sam started 14 games last year for us and in those 14 weeks, Winston and/or Mariota also played during those 14 weeks.

How did Sam do vs. the two rookie QB's on a week by week basis?

He had the best QB rating in 4 of those 14 weeks.
He had the worst QB rating in 4 of those 14 weeks
He had the middle QB rating in 6 of those weeks.

He finished the year with a Passer Rating of 86.4, the middle rating between Mariota's 91.5 and Winston's 84.2.

In the first 5 weeks of the season, his performance coming off injury and the rookies performance, trying to get acclimated to a new league and the speed of the NFL game, were nearly the same as season performances with Sam being first among the three once, last among the three once and the middle performer of the three three times.

If the Kid is comparable to the two rookie QB's from last year, and Sam is who ihis '15 stats and his previous five years stats say he is, there isn't much difference in playing the Kid.

Sam needs to prove he is above previous performance and/or the Kid needs to prove he isn't ready to the level of last year's starting rookie QB's for it to make sense to keep Sam.

If neither is apparent, it may make sense to play the Kid, purely on a best chance to win basis.

I'm thinking Bradford and/or Wentz would prove otherwise, but recent history doesn't give credence to playing Sam over the rookie.

Compete, keep an open mind, let's see what they have.
Zero
Would a comparison of college experience with the three rookies have any bearing on a fair and complete analysis?
Eyrie
To be fair to Bradford, he was coming back from yet another injury so had rust to shake off in addition to dealing with Kelly's offense.

It will be fairer to judge him on how quickly he settles down this year when he is healthy and playing in a more traditional system.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Eyrie @ May 21 2016, 06:16 AM) *
To be fair to Bradford, he was coming back from yet another injury so had rust to shake off in addition to dealing with Kelly's offense.

It will be fairer to judge him on how quickly he settles down this year when he is healthy and playing in a more traditional system.



In fairness to the two rookies, they played for real shitty teams and had to adjust to an entirely new league and offensive playbooks that were double the size they had in college!!

I think the adjustment for the two rookies was just maybe a tad more traumatic than Sam's reintroduction to the league.

Just a tad! tongue.gif
Zero
QUOTE (nephillymike @ May 21 2016, 07:53 AM) *
In fairness to the two rookies, they played for real shitty teams and had to adjust to an entirely new league and offensive playbooks that were double the size they had in college!!

I think the adjustment for the two rookies was just maybe a tad more traumatic than Sam's reintroduction to the league.

Just a tad! tongue.gif


I'll let more astute minds dissect this data and I'm not sure what impact or relevance it has on anything.
QUOTE
#8
Marcus Mariota
Rating Yards TD
181.7 4454 42
Team: Oregon Ducks Height: 6-4 Born: 10/30/1993
Position: QB Weight: 219 Hometown: Honolulu, HI
Class-Eligibility: Sr-Jr


Career Passing Stats
Year Team G Cmp Att Comp % Yds Yd/A TDs Int Sacked Yds
2012 Oregon 13 230 336 68.5 2677 8.0 32 6 17 103
2013 Oregon 13 245 386 63.5 3665 9.5 31 4 18 111
2014 Oregon 15 304 445 68.3 4454 10.0 42 4 31 165
Career 41 779 1167 66.8 10796 9.3 105 14 66 379

Career Rushing/Receiving Stats
Year Team G Rush Yds Yd/Rush TDs Rec Yds Yd/Rec TDs
2012 Oregon 13 106 752 7.1 5 1 2 2.0 1
2013 Oregon 13 96 715 7.4 9 0 0 - 0
2014 Oregon 15 135 770 5.7 15 1 26 26.0 1
Career 41 337 2237 6.6 29 2 28 14.0 2
QUOTE
#5
Jameis Winston
Rating Yards TD
145.5 3907 25
Team: Florida State Seminoles Height: 6-4 Born: 1/6/1994
Position: QB Weight: 230 Hometown: Hueytown, AL
Class-Eligibility: Jr-So


Career Passing Stats
Year Team G Cmp Att Comp % Yds Yd/A TDs Int Sacked Yds
2013 FlaSt 14 257 384 66.9 4057 10.6 40 10 27 186
2014 FlaSt 13 305 467 65.3 3907 8.4 25 18 17 134
Career 27 562 851 66.0 7964 9.4 65 28 44 320

Career Rushing/Receiving Stats
Year Team G Rush Yds Yd/Rush TDs Rec Yds Yd/Rec TDs
2013 FlaSt 14 88 219 2.5 4 0 0 - 0
2014 FlaSt 13 57 65 1.1 3 0 0 - 0
Career 27 145 284 2.0 7 0 0 - 0
QUOTE
#11
Carson Wentz
Rating Yards TD
152.3 1651 17
Team: North Dakota State Bison Height: 6-6 Born: 12/30/1992
Position: QB Weight: 235 Hometown: Bismarck, North Dakota
Class-Eligibility: GS-Sr


Career Passing Stats
Year Team G Cmp Att Comp % Yds Yd/A TDs Int Sacked Yds
2012 NDAKST 8 12 16 75.0 144 9.0 2 0 0 0
2013 NDAKST 11 22 30 73.3 209 7.0 1 0 2 7
2014 NDAKST 16 228 358 63.7 3111 8.7 25 10 20 112
2015 NDAKST 7 130 208 62.5 1651 7.9 17 4 8 46
Career 42 392 612 64.1 5115 8.4 45 14 30 165

Career Rushing/Receiving Stats
Year Team G Rush Yds Yd/Rush TDs Rec Yds Yd/Rec TDs
2012 NDAKST 8 5 22 4.4 1 0 0 - 0
2013 NDAKST 11 10 70 7.0 0 0 0 - 0
2014 NDAKST 16 138 642 4.7 6 1 16 16.0 1
2015 NDAKST 7 63 294 4.7 6 0 0 - 0
Career 42 216 1028 4.8 13 1 16 16.0 1

Sources: Mariota, Winston, Wentz
nephillymike
QUOTE (Zero @ May 21 2016, 07:18 AM) *
I'll let more astute minds dissect this data and I'm not sure what impact or relevance it has on anything.

Sources: Mariota, Winston, Wentz



Not doubting that the two guys last year were higher rated prospects as they were. But they played for worse teams, so it's not a stretch to say that a rookie playing on a better team may have an easier transition that may make up for the talent gap.

I did say that it depended on two things, Bradford playing close to his career standards and the Kid being ready. If the Kid isn't ready because of being less of a prospect day 1, then he doesn't play.
Reality Fan
I have said that Wentz should start day 1.....it is what you expect from a number 2 pick.....history supports it.

I am interested to see how Mariota does going forward. Winston has Evans to throw to...that helps a lot.

mcnabbulous
Didn't Evans lead the league in drops last year? He's a beast, but he struggled.
nd9kel
According to the geniuses on this board, drops have NOTHING to do with QB effectiveness.
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