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nephillymike
http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2016/insider/s...arson-wentz-nfl

This is an analysis of future success prediction of this years top 6 QB prospects.

Bust is considered to be anything less than an adequate starter.

A summary of their work

Name.........Upper Tier/Elite.........Bust
Goff.................38%...................28%
Prescott...........19%...................55%
Wentz..............14%...................62%
Lynch...............12%..................67%
Cook.................7%....................78%
Hackenberg.......6%....................80%

Ouch!

I think Wentz will buck the odds but the odds are sobering.

Reality Fan
This is not the first time....I read an article a few weeks ago that used analytics and said that Goff was the guy and Wentz was very iffy at best.

I am surprised at the sudden optimism and support of Howie's drafting ability.....this draft looks like a disaster right now. It is one thing to reach for one player in a draft but another to do it repeatedly. I hope to god I am wrong but this looks worse than I thought he would do.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ May 1 2016, 11:59 AM) *
This is not the first time....I read an article a few weeks ago that used analytics and said that Goff was the guy and Wentz was very iffy at best.

I am surprised at the sudden optimism and support of Howie's drafting ability.....this draft looks like a disaster right now. It is one thing to reach for one player in a draft but another to do it repeatedly. I hope to god I am wrong but this looks worse than I thought he would do.


I really like Wentz. wub.gif wub.gif

I hope this analysis is way off in that regard.

I agree 100% in your opinion of the draft. You had higher expectations of Howie and his staff's readiness, skill than I did,so coming up short of your expectations is understandable. I did not have high expectations and they blew my low expectations out of the water!!!

It is truly bizarre. I have never seen anything close to this in the 15 years or so I have followed it closely.

My reasonably hopeful case is Wentz pans out as at least above average, we get something in Mills and one other of the reaches and we get some UDFA who are better than the UDFA talent we drafted and we get by for this year.

Get that personnel guy we need, set the department right and move on to next year. Truth is, if Wentz is all of that, people will forget the rest of this year's draft.
mcnabbulous
I'm pretty hopeful for Wentz, the RB and the guard.

I think the guard will be a long term starter, the RB a solid contributor, and Wentz a very good QB.

If it pans out like that, it will have been a success. Getting three quality players from the draft usually means it was a success. If one of those is a QB, then it's a major bonus.

I would consider it a major win if that tackle can be the RT of the future.
Reality Fan
I am very worried about Wentz......more and more has come out about Goff being a better choice, not that they are all correct but it is worrying.

I hope they are all wrong but I worry about basing a plan on a guy's performance in shorts. HE seems like a great guy but there have been plenty of great guys, smart, etc. who come out and just are ordinary QBs and they Eagles can afford for himt o be ordinary.....not with "long arms" Howie drafting.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ May 1 2016, 12:33 PM) *
I am very worried about Wentz......more and more has come out about Goff being a better choice, not that they are all correct but it is worrying.

I hope they are all wrong but I worry about basing a plan on a guy's performance in shorts. HE seems like a great guy but there have been plenty of great guys, smart, etc. who come out and just are ordinary QBs and they Eagles can afford for himt o be ordinary.....not with "long arms" Howie drafting.

I think it's valid to be worried. He has limited experience against subpar competition. With that said, he is really a unique physical specimen. There aren't too many guys you can even reasonably compare him too.

At this point, I've landed somewhere between Bortles and Cam. If he doesn't even turn into a stud passer, his physical abilities should allow him to at least make plays.

Goff really doesn't do it for me. He may be great, but so many guys that have shared his physical attributes have thrived in those types of offenses in college. I really don't know what makes him much different.
nephillymike
The nice tidbit I like is the success of all of the other 1-AA QB's drafted in round 1.

The hit rate is phenominal:

D. Williams
P. Simms
S. McNair
J. Flacco

and I'm missing one. (??? help??)

That eases my worry a bit.
Zero
nephillymike
I'm on the dark side:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMRBCCDTl7s
Zero
We couldn't expect less from Axis leadership. devil03.gif
rumply
QUOTE (nephillymike @ May 1 2016, 12:45 PM) *
The nice tidbit I like is the success of all of the other 1-AA QB's drafted in round 1.

The hit rate is phenominal:

D. Williams
P. Simms
S. McNair
J. Flacco

and I'm missing one. (??? help??)

That eases my worry a bit.



Yeah, these are the stat's I would be putting more faith in. I think it's great we have gone outside the box a bit in drafting Wentz, he may take a season or 2 to show what he can do & that may get messy with the Bradford situation as it is, but I for one am willing to have a little patience.
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