Help - Search - Members - Calendar
Full Version: The NEPM Put Up or Shut Up Draft
Eagles Forum > Philadelphia Eagles Message Board > Philadelphia Eagles or Football Related Discussion
nephillymike
It would be unfair to criticize the Eagles drafts without posting a few of my own if I was "On the Clock"

So, assuming the same picks and the same people available at each spot and taking the Best Player Available at a Posiiiton of Need (BPAPON) at the time of the pick, here's what I come up with. I only eliminated QB and the 34DE, 34OLB, 34DT spots as they are not system fits.

Here are two drafts, with the pick #, name, position, (my compilation rank), and the [pick they were actually drafted in]:

Draft #1 BPAPON

#79 B. Miller, WR, #53, [#85]
#153 C. Westerman, OG, #61, [#161]
#164 J. Cash, SS, #67, [UDFA] If you must have a RB, put A. Collins RB, #91, [#171]
#196 V. Alexander, OG, #90, [#234]
#233 C. Peake, WR, #105, [#241]
#240 S. Wright, ILB, #108, [#250]
#251 L. Turner, OG, #121, [UDFA] If don't want 3 OL's select T. Powell, FS, #133, [UDFA]

Draft #2 The 2nd BPAPON

#79 K. Fuller, CB, #55, [#84]
#153 J. Cash, SS, #67, [UDFA]
#164 J. Mills, FS, #76, [#233] If you must have a RB, put A. Collins RB, #91, [#171]
#196 J. Allen, C, #103, [UDFA]
#233 S. Wright, ILB, #108, [#250]
#240 K. Lawler, WR, #122, [#243]
#251 L. Turner, OG, #121, [UDFA]

Eagles Draft

#79 I. Seumalo OG, #136
#153 L. Smallwood, RB, not on there >221
#164 V. Halapoulavaati, OT, not on there >221
#196 B. Countess, CB, not on there >221
#233 J. Mills, FS, #76
#240 A. McAllister, DE, not on there >221
#251 J. Walker, ILB, not on there >221

I'll take either of my two drafts over that joke Howie drafted after round 1.

I have never seen anything like this in the 15 years I've been following this closely. The Eagles board was miles different than that of many other sources. Most times that spells trouble. Let's hope Howie and his fully staffed scouting department including the guys who were hired early on on the down low knew what they were doing.

Eagle2720
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 30 2016, 09:59 PM) *
It would be unfair to criticize the Eagles drafts without posting a few of my own if I was "On the Clock"

So, assuming the same picks and the same people available at each spot and taking the Best Player Available at a Posiiiton of Need (BPAPON) at the time of the pick, here's what I come up with. I only eliminated QB and the 34DE, 34OLB, 34DT spots as they are not system fits.

Here are two drafts, with the pick #, name, position, (my compilation rank), and the [pick they were actually drafted in]:

Draft #1 BPAPON

#79 B. Miller, WR, #53, [#85]
#153 C. Westerman, OG, #61, [#161]
#164 J. Cash, SS, #67, [UDFA] If you must have a RB, put A. Collins RB, #91, [#171]
#196 V. Alexander, OG, #90, [#234]
#233 C. Peake, WR, #105, [#241]
#240 S. Wright, ILB, #108, [#250]
#251 L. Turner, OG, #121, [UDFA] If don't want 3 OL's select T. Powell, FS, #133, [UDFA]

Draft #2 The 2nd BPAPON

#79 K. Fuller, CB, #55, [#84]
#153 J. Cash, SS, #67, [UDFA]
#164 J. Mills, FS, #76, [#233] If you must have a RB, put A. Collins RB, #91, [#171]
#196 J. Allen, C, #103, [UDFA]
#233 S. Wright, ILB, #108, [#250]
#240 K. Lawler, WR, #122, [#243]
#251 L. Turner, OG, #121, [UDFA]

Eagles Draft

#79 I. Seumalo OG, #136
#153 L. Smallwood, RB, not on there >221
#164 V. Halapoulavaati, OT, not on there >221
#196 B. Countess, CB, not on there >221
#233 J. Mills, FS, #76
#240 A. McAllister, DE, not on there >221
#251 J. Walker, ILB, not on there >221

I'll take either of my two drafts over that joke Howie drafted after round 1.

I have never seen anything like this in the 15 years I've been following this closely. The Eagles board was miles different than that of many other sources. Most times that spells trouble. Let's hope Howie and his fully staffed scouting department including the guys who were hired early on on the down low knew what they were doing.


I think 1 or 2 would have been miles better than what ours came out to be. I feel if Wentz doesn't turn out to be a great player(not good or average) then this draft was for shit and the worst one I've witnessed in my short agonizing life as an Eagles fan. I don't see any of the picked players be contributors with the exception of Seumalo( as a back up) and Mills( because he fell so far and cousins been a third round talent.
mcnabbulous
Out of curiosity, Mikey -- have you ever gone back years after and evaluated your lists to see how they panned out?

Also, do other teams tend to have the reaches that we do? Is it league wide or unique to our birds?
nephillymike
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Apr 30 2016, 10:51 PM) *
Out of curiosity, Mikey -- have you ever gone back years after and evaluated your lists to see how they panned out?

Also, do other teams tend to have the reaches that we do? Is it league wide or unique to our birds?


Nothing scientific in hindsight evaluation.

I don't normally monitor what other teams do with the exception of NFC EAst teams in those years that I have the time to.

For most of Andy's years we didn't reach too far.

This years was miles beyond anything I remember. Normally the reaches are a half round to a round.

We are reaching two and three rounds for some of these kids. After Wentz, it's almost like you can remove the top 150 prospects off the board and then have the next best 300 prospects #151-500 and throw five darts and you would be better of throwing the darts.

Truly bizarre.

If I get some time, I can take a look at some of the reaches for teams this year. My guess is we win in a landslide.

mcnabbulous
I feel like you always complain about it, so my guess is that it's a league wide epidemic. You couldn't have been so misfortunate to be born in the city with the team that would torture you like this, right?
Eyrie
Once you get past rounds one and two I'm reasonably relaxed about a half round reach for those ranked 60-150 as the player picked may well have been gone by the next round and a trade down isn't always possible, even assuming you're confident that the player will still be there.

By round five there's not a lot of difference in talent because you're looking at players ranked 150-300, so I'd always be looking to fill roster holes with players whose strengths are a good fit for our scheme and whose weaknesses won't be as exposed. It's also fair enough to take a gamble on a player who has fallen due to injuries or, as mcnabbulous observed, character issues. If that means reaching by a round or so, then I'm fine with that.
Zero
I've always believed that after Round 3, "crapshoot" is a dramatically insufficient word to use when it comes to the draft. I'm not saying mikey's analysis is wrong, but I don't have any faith that the rankings of pundits who are tasked with evaluating such a large group of players could reasonably be regarded as much more than a blind squirrel nut hunt in August.

These guys are rarely if ever accountable for their evaluations, even for the top one or two players let alone the hundreds that follow. It's beyond my understanding how they can determine a given player's comparative worth to a specific team and system on the basis of limited film review and speed and agility statistics. Too often I've been disappointed with the failure of a player for whom these people give good reviews while watching the success of others they've either rated poorly or completely ignored. I accept that, as in most things, money is the driving force in their work not accuracy.

This is why I'm Optimystic. I accept both that I don't know shit and the probability that often the pundits don't know much more than I do. I prefer to anticipate success rather than agonize over the perceived incompetence of those who have greater resources than I do and devote significantly more time in research than I am able to. At the same time, I love doing what mikey does, reading over the maps of those blind squirrels and comparing their routes to the ones taken by the Eagles.
nephillymike
Sometimes those "blind squirrels" and their nowadays significant staffs do find a nut. Sure each one could be more right or wrong than one other but doing a consensus of many sources normally makes it more reliable

They properly predicted the Jon Harris, and Marcus Smith failures. Had Watkins being over drafted by over a round.

Again you can point to anyone source and say this one got it wrong, but on the consensus that is less true.

These days, as long as you are relying on guys that put the time in and not the internet wonders, you normally get well researched opinions. Note that it is all in the context of the crap shoot that the draft is.

Guys like Kiper, Mayock, Jeremiah, Norris and others put a lot of time into it. Many have scouting backgrounds.

Again, they could very well be wrong, but when there is a big reach, there normally is a big mistake.

Although this year's evaluation is very critical, if you check past years' evaluation you will find there are many good ones. Where I differ than most, is that I use a C as average, D as below average, where the internet guys are hesitant to use a C as average.

I will see how the reaches look.
nephillymike
BTW, if you guys can stream the Didinger MacNow show, it's on from 10 AM - 1PM today. There should be a lot of draft talk.

Diddy has been a draftnik for years and watches a bunch of film and had filled his yellow legal pads with copious notes for years. His "sleepers" are uncannily very good.
nephillymike
Per Diddy,

Mills is the only prospect we drafted that he had a higher draft round than we picked him in. All other prospects accept for Wentz, were drafted a round or rounds earlier than he had them projected to go.

And no, I didn't send Diddy my compilation!!
GroundedBird
I understand why they did it: they wanted flexibility. They weren't sure if Peters was going to make it through the season and they're not sure of their LG/C areas. I still would have preferred:

Le'Raven Clark instead of Isaac Seumalo (79)
Christian Westerman instead of Wendell Smallwood (153)
Alex Collins instead of Halapoulivaati Vaitai (164)
Harlan Miller instead of Blake Countess (196)
Scooby Wright instead of Jalen Mills (233)
mcnabbulous
Based on the outcome of the draft, I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Howie leans heavily on pff.

The linemen he took were both very strong performers, specifically in pass protection, and Seumalo was one of their highest rated guards overall.

A bit too coincidental if you ask me.
Eyrie
QUOTE (nephillymike @ May 1 2016, 01:48 PM) *
Sometimes those "blind squirrels" and their nowadays significant staffs do find a nut. Sure each one could be more right or wrong than one other but doing a consensus of many sources normally makes it more reliable

I agree that the consensus is more accurate than any one inidvidual, and appreciate the work you put in each year collating the different rankings for us.

However those draftniks are offering us their informed opinions. If they were reasonably accurate most of the time then they'd be doing better than the average NFL team and would be inundated with offers of work. I suspect that if any of them viewed their predictions three years down the line they'd find that they have a similar success rate however, so I treat their opinions as a source of information rather than a guarantee.

And ultimately what matters is how well a draft pick plays for us, so if Watkins had become a ProBowler then it would be irrelevant that we could have waited until round two. It's like the Wentz pick - he leads us to SuperBowl victory and it's a great move at a fair price.
GroundedBird
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ May 1 2016, 10:54 AM) *
Based on the outcome of the draft, I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Howie leans heavily on pff.

The linemen he took were both very strong performers, specifically in pass protection, and Seumalo was one of their highest rated guards overall.

A bit too coincidental if you ask me.


I hope he's right.
nephillymike
So far, all 13 on the NEPM have made the cut to 75.

We'll see how they make out for the 53 + 10 rosters
nephillymike
11 of 13 made the 53.

Wr Lawlor made the Sea PS

OC J. Allen made the NO PS.

Of the 11 who made it, 8 are 2nd team on the depth charts, while 3 are 3rd team.

I know teams always give draft picks the benefit of doubt, but they won't inflate their depth chart status.

J. Mills was my lone Eagle and is 2nd team.
nephillymike
Down time the week before SB, may be a good time to update this.
This is a "lo-fi" version of our main content. To view the full version with more information, formatting and images, please click here.
Invision Power Board © 2001-2017 Invision Power Services, Inc.