Help - Search - Members - Calendar
Full Version: Let's get this week started a bit early . . .
Eagles Forum > Philadelphia Eagles Message Board > Wiseguys and Degenerates
md717
Here are the lines according to WagerLine at 11:23 AM EST, Thursday 10/27:

Arizona at Dallas; DAL-9
Chicago at Detroit; DET-3
Cleveland at Houston; HOU-2
Green Bay at Cincinnati; CIN-9
Jacksonville at St. Louis; JAX-3
Minnesota at Carolina; CAR-7.5
Oakland at Tennessee; OAK-2
Washington at N.Y. Giants; NYG-2
Kansas City at San Diego; SD-6
Miami at New Orleans; NO-2
Philadelphia at Denver; DEN-3.5
Tampa Bay at San Francisco; TB-11
Buffalo at New England; NE-9
Baltimore at Pittsburgh; PIT-10

I'm not seeing anything too exciting here. OAK-2 looks OK, I guess. PIT-10 has possibilities.

There are a lot of high lines this week . . . that makes me nervous.
nephillymike
Nothing jumps off the page at me either.

I need to look at the numbers a bit and see if anything stands out.
Phits
I like JAX & SD
JAX has an easy schedule upcoming and will look to exploit this game
SD cannot lose this one, and they need to establish themselves early and often
md717
I dunno . . . I can go with you on JAX -3 . . . SD-6 is a bit tougher.

The more I think about it, the more I like PHI -3.5 . . . I'll have my "full report" sometime tonight or tomorrow.
nephillymike
Just crunched some numbers and here are some choices that look good based on stats to date:

TB -11 @ SF
Cle +2 @ Hou
Chi +3 @ Det
Stl +3.5 vs. Jax
GB +9 @ Cin
Phi +3.5 @ Den

Some of these spreads may be off b/c of injuries, prev. bye weeks, lineup changes, short weeks, strength of schedule etc. I'll take a look at some things and see if I can get a few bets out of these six.
nephillymike
Upon further review, some info that may explain some of the soft spreads:

TB-SF - TB has a new QB in Simms and their RB is dinged. Still may take a crack at this one but I'm waffling. I'll pull an Andy on this one.

Cle-Hou - well, Hou has got to win sometime, and this is prolly it, however I think I'll put a few pesos on Cle +2 @ Hou. I heard Hou should get their injured star back, but I don't know.

Chi -Det - Chi walloped them a few weeks ago in Chi. One would think that they would split the series, but is Garcia worth that much? IMO, this line s/b even and I'll take the 3 and Chi and hope at least for a cover.

GB - Cin - Injuries moved this line. No Green, No Davenport, No Ferguson, No Other WR who held out whose name I forget, No chance of Guido getting my money on this one.

Stl-Jax - Line moved b/c of Martin at QB. Homey don't play backup QB's. Fagettaboutit!

Phi-Den - to take or not to take Iggs +3.5 in Denver? How can I when I see problems in this game just based on how we've been playing. Can't touch this!

Pit-Bal - No Lewis, No Reed, NO QB, NO chance. Give me Pit -10.5 for a big play even though it didn't hit the "numbers" analysis.

So Chi + 3, Cle +2 (very slight play), Pit -10.5, bet MD's Guiness fund on this one. Of course when I call Guido tomorrow, all the lines will move just enough to piss me off. We'll see.
md717
Here are the lines updated from what I posted earlier:

Arizona at Dallas; DAL-9
Chicago at Detroit; DET-3
Cleveland at Houston; HOU-2
Green Bay at Cincinnati; CIN-9
Jacksonville at St. Louis; JAX-3
Minnesota at Carolina; CAR-7.5
Oakland at Tennessee; OAK-1 (was -2)
Washington at N.Y. Giants; NYG-2
Kansas City at San Diego; SD-6
Miami at New Orleans; NO-2.5 (was -2)
Philadelphia at Denver; DEN-3.5
Tampa Bay at San Francisco; TB-11
Buffalo at New England; NE-9
Baltimore at Pittsburgh; PIT-10.5 (was -10)

As you can see only 3 changed, and not by much.

I'm just starting to look at things indepth (for what it's worth) and will have a few things to post later.
nephillymike
Hey MD,

Get on with it.


Just look up the trend for teams coming off a win sent from god on the road, against a team with .500 or better record coming off a heart break loss, in temperatures above 50 degrees........................

Carry the one, minus the three, factor in the yards per play coefficient and the prettier uniform trend.................

I can smell that calculator burning from here.

I ain't got all night.

Well actually, I almost do. I'm sitting here trying to finish some CPE credits and I'm looking for a diversion, and it is fall back night so technically it's only 10:00 PM.
md717
Alrighty then. Let's give it a whirl. Coming off a pretty good week last week, except for the damn Vikings and their record-setting kick. Fuckers!

Actually, I have almost all night too, Red and I are going to stay up and watch The Shining that starts at midnight . . .

Let's take it game by game:

Arizona at Dallas; DAL-9

Damn, that's a LOT of points. (This will be a recurring theme.) I gotta think Parcells will have the Boys ready to play at home after a tough loss to SEA last week, and I rather think this will be a two TD victory or better, but I just don't know if I have the cahones to make the play. Thinkin' about it, but . . . will probalby pass.

Chicago at Detroit; DET-3

I'm with you on this one, take CHI and the points. Their D is for real, it would seem. I think CHI wins outright, not by much, but . . . since they're getting 3, like you said you gotta at least hope for a cover.

Cleveland at Houston; HOU-2

Take Cleveland and the points. The "Texans have to beat somebody, don't they" argument is lame. How they're favored in this game is beyond me. They are a worse football team than SF, and that's saying something.

Green Bay at Cincinnati; CIN-9

Too many points. GB is going to lose, they're self destructing . . . but by two scores? Don't have the cahones . . . see Dallas above. Too many injuries and CIN is gonna be motivated by a tough loss to PIT last week, but . . . still too many points.

Jacksonville at St. Louis; JAX-3.5

At 3 points this might have been worthwhile, hoping for at least a cover. Had the Rams not beaten NO last week, I'd be all over this. But even with the injuries they found a way to win, with a little help from the officials. At 3.5 -- no thanks.

Minnesota at Carolina; CAR-7.5

Too many points. And no way I'm gonna lose by a Minnesota Miracle two weeks in a row. At -6 I'd be ok, but -7.5? No thanks.

Oakland at Tennessee; OAK-1

Gotta say I like OAK -1. TEN's D is just too young. Collins will burn them.

Washington at N.Y. Giants; NYG-2

NO clue. I'd say Washington wins outright and take the points, but . . . really? Who have they beaten? Impressive win over the Niners? Just too early to tell.

Kansas City at San Diego; SD-6

KC wins this outright -- take the points, no brainer. I think they'll go to school on how to stop LT and Gates from the Eagles game last week. While they (KC) don't have the personell to do it as well, I think they'll do it well enough. SD has a great run D, but I think Priest makes enough of a dent in that to set up Dilfer for some long strikes to Gonzales, et al.

Miami at New Orleans; NO-2

Take NO. They're pissed and the refs know they're due for a couple of breaks. They're "at home" such as it is, and the Miami team had to split up in Baton Rouge. Gotta like the Saints in this one, they've lost too many close ones and they can win this one by a FG.

Philadelphia at Denver; DEN-3.5

I think we win this one outright. At plus 3.5 . . . I'll take it.

Tampa Bay at San Francisco; TB-11

Too many points. Tempting, but . . . can't do it.

Buffalo at New England; NE-9

WAY too many points. This is gonna be a close one. NE will win, but . . . by less than 9. Tempting even to take BUF+9, but . . . can't do that either.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh; PIT-10.5

I disagree with you on this one. I like my Guinness $$ too much. That's a lot of points for what should be a low-scoring game. C'mon -- the over/under is set at 33. So PIT wins 21-10? If you're gonna bet the ranch on the -10.5, then you might as well couple it w/ the OVER . . . right? Dunno, Baltimore does SUCK lately, and has shown a propensity to self-destruct. Not sure. I think I might wait and play this one on Monday based on how well I do on Sunday.

So what am I gonna play???

Hmmm . . .

CHI +3
PHI +3.5
KC+6
OAK -1
CLE+2

That's what it's lookin' like to me at the moment.
nephillymike
That KC pick looks tempting. That spread seems too high.

Don't have any strong feelings for the Oak-Ten game.

Hopefully that Eagles game is a winner.

Good luck!
md717
You too. Hope Guido didn't move the lines on you too much. cool.gif
Phits
Are you guys doing the b*tting online? if so who are you using? any good p@rl@y sites, to recommend?
md717
I know someone who's using sportsbook.com this year, and he seems to be happy w/ them so far.

It should be noted that any discussion of an illegal activity is PURELY hypothetical, that we're discussing what we *might* do were we to actually engage in such an activity, which we surely wouldn't -- being the fine upstanding citizens that we are. cool.gif
nephillymike
I have no idea what you're talking about. I do this for amusement purposes only.

wink.gif
md717
I'm 1120 points behind Mprincz (he has 980 points as the leader) in our Wagerline contest, and 110 points behind Eugol.

I played the 5 picks mentioned above. The way the contest is laid out, you can make a max of 5 picks for 100 points each.

Mprincz played:

Hou -2
NE -9
MIA +2
CIN-9
SD-6

While I have:

CHI+3
OAK-1
PHI+3.5
KC+6
CLE+2

So, best case for me . . . I could gain 500 while Mprincz loses 550 (you lose 110 for every loss) . . . and that would put me in close 2nd place! hehe

Incidentally -- I suppose people could still join the Wagerline Wingheads contest . . . and anyone who did so today would start out in 2nd place, since all contestants with the exception of MPrincz have negative points.
nephillymike
As usual the lines moved against me:

I got Pit -11, Chi +2.5, and Cle +2

Two line movements out of three ain't bad..........................
md717
So you passed on KC+6? You'll be sorry!!
md717
Hmmmmm . . .

All 3 of my 1pm games are at halftime, basically . . .

TEN just returned an INT for a TD, now it's 24-22 OAK. That's not good. TEN missed the PAT on their first TD, and then failed at a 2 pt. conversion on their 2nd, so . . . that's the difference. *Technically* I'm still winning this one (OAK -1.5) but it has me nervous. TEN definitely has the MO to start the 2nd half. Thankfully OAK recovered a TEN fumble in the endzone late in the 2nd quarter, or this would be lopsided the other direction. Second half should be interesting!!

CHI up 13-3, I'm pretty comfortable there, and CLE up 13-10 . . . not as confident there but I'm getting 1.5 on CLE . . . so, we'll see. HOU went 3-n-out on their first possession after the half, and now CLE has the ball at the HOU 45 on their first possession of the 2nd half. I'd feel better with a few more points on that one.
md717
OH boy.

Crash and Burn, baby.

I'm 2-3 on the day, not good.

Put an "OMG hope I can recover" play on Buffalo to beat NE straight up. GO BUFFALO
nephillymike
1-1, down the Vig, going into Monday.

How about the Bucs?

I wish I had some info about how often an 11 point home dog wins a game out right?

Maybe 5% of the time?? Pretty rare.

That, combined with a hopeful NE loss, will bring my suicide pool down to a final three, providing that the Steelers, who I picked, win Monday.


This is a "lo-fi" version of our main content. To view the full version with more information, formatting and images, please click here.
Invision Power Board © 2001-2014 Invision Power Services, Inc.