You've heard me say that one reason we should draft a QB this year, is that we're hopefully drafting as high as we will for a long time.

We are at #8 right now.

MIA secured that #8 pick with a 6-10 record.

How good will we be next year?

If we're 7-9 with the same tiebreakers, we'd draft #13 again.

If we're 8-8 and we get the middle spot of 8-8 teams, we pick #18.

If we're like the Jets, a nice 10-6 record, but just not good enough for the playoffs (like we were in '14), we'd pick 20th.

If we play well enough to get in the playoffs but lose in the 1st round, but not have the best record of the losers, we'd pick 23.

So 8 or 13 or 18, or 20, or 23.

http://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

What is the future cost of trading up from those spots just to get to this year's #8 spot? Using that handy draft chart once again, it tells us that the cost in draft value points is:

#13 = 250 points = a 3rd round pick roughly #68

#18 = 500 points = a 2nd round pick, roughly #40

#20 = 550 points = a 2nd round pick, roughly #35

#23 = 640 points = a 1st round pick, roughly #29

For example, since we don't have a 2nd, to make up the 500 points to get from #18 to #8 this year, we would have to give up both 3rds and our high 4th, which almost exactly matches. Again, two mid 3rds and a high 4th to get where we are today!

That is expensive opportunity costs folks. It's unlikely that we'd get to the playoffs and want to change QB's. But anywhere from 13-20 and we probably are.

Think about it. A QB in round one, even with a trade up.

We may not be down this road for quite a while.