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nephillymike
You've heard me say that one reason we should draft a QB this year, is that we're hopefully drafting as high as we will for a long time.

We are at #8 right now.

MIA secured that #8 pick with a 6-10 record.

How good will we be next year?

If we're 7-9 with the same tiebreakers, we'd draft #13 again.

If we're 8-8 and we get the middle spot of 8-8 teams, we pick #18.

If we're like the Jets, a nice 10-6 record, but just not good enough for the playoffs (like we were in '14), we'd pick 20th.

If we play well enough to get in the playoffs but lose in the 1st round, but not have the best record of the losers, we'd pick 23.

So 8 or 13 or 18, or 20, or 23.

http://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

What is the future cost of trading up from those spots just to get to this year's #8 spot? Using that handy draft chart once again, it tells us that the cost in draft value points is:

#13 = 250 points = a 3rd round pick roughly #68
#18 = 500 points = a 2nd round pick, roughly #40
#20 = 550 points = a 2nd round pick, roughly #35
#23 = 640 points = a 1st round pick, roughly #29

For example, since we don't have a 2nd, to make up the 500 points to get from #18 to #8 this year, we would have to give up both 3rds and our high 4th, which almost exactly matches. Again, two mid 3rds and a high 4th to get where we are today!

That is expensive opportunity costs folks. It's unlikely that we'd get to the playoffs and want to change QB's. But anywhere from 13-20 and we probably are.

Think about it. A QB in round one, even with a trade up.

We may not be down this road for quite a while.
Reality Fan
But if Bradford is as bad as you think he will be and as bad as some other idiot on this board feels he will be than you need to factor that in because if Bradford is what you think he may be than they will be in trouble with their schedule...you should expect them to be 6-10....they play a tough schedule...

Glad you like both sides.....lol
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 29 2016, 08:55 PM) *
But if Bradford is as bad as you think he will be and as bad as some other idiot on this board feels he will be than you need to factor that in because if Bradford is what you think he may be than they will be in trouble with their schedule...you should expect them to be 6-10....they play a tough schedule...

Glad you like both sides.....lol


Says the guy who cashed in on betting against his franchise QB getting above average starter money!!

Joegrane
I agree with your general concept, however, is this crop of Top 10 caliber QBs similar to those available in most other years?

Furthermore, if the Eagles think there are QBs who are likely to be available in the 2nd round who can be just as talented in a few years, why not trade down in the 1st round and acquire a 2nd round pick?

They currently have two experienced QBs. They don't need a rookie to start this year.

If Bradford looks good this year, you don't have a QB controversy, at least not for a few years--remember Kevin Kolb vs McNabb vs M Vick?

Finally you still have a 1st rounder to use to strengthen another position--CB, O Line, RB, etc.

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 29 2016, 08:28 PM) *
You've heard me say that one reason we should draft a QB this year, is that we're hopefully drafting as high as we will for a long time.
...

How good will we be next year?

If we're 7-9 with the same tiebreakers, we'd draft #13 again.

...

Think about it. A QB in round one, even with a trade up.

We may not be down this road for quite a while.

Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 29 2016, 11:51 PM) *
Says the guy who cashed in on betting against his franchise QB getting above average starter money!!


No...that was common sense and gauging the marketplace...( though Houston surprised me with Oswieler)...
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