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nephillymike
So suppose we would like to draft a top 15 QB, which is the minimum I think a QB needs to be for us to have a shot to win a SB, where do these QB's get drafted?

What if you believe it is OL OL OL? Where do the top OT or OG come from?

If you are a Run the Ball Andy type of guy, where do the top RB's get drafted?

If you are trying to upgrade a pitiful WR corps, where do those great WR's come from?

I took those QB who I believe are the top 15 Active QB's; Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Roeth, Rivers, Romo, Wilson, Luck, Newton, Ryan, Flacco, Manning, Dalton, Palmer, Stafford.

These QB were drafted 199th, 24th, 32nd, 11th, 4th, UDFA, 75th, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 18th, 1st, 35th, 1st, 1st.

I used the AV measure from Pro Football Reference to get the top 24 OT's, who were all OT's with AV >=9 Last year.

These OT's were drafted: 55,4,UDFA,69,9,210,15,75,92,4,9,150,63,41,4,112,66,23,6,23,UDFA,6,28,58

Using OG's with AV >= 8, I get the top 18 OG's last year.

These OG's were drafted: 24,17,135,20,92,86,64,81,32,207,101,UDFA,172, UDFA, 16,193,225,27

I used the top 15 RB's in rushing yards per game in 2015 to identify the top 15 RB's.

These RB's were drafted: 7,31,10,4,UDFA,181,103,13,28,44,53,233,36,UDFA,24.

I used the top 15 WR's in yards per game in 2015 to identify the top 15 WR's.

These WR's were drafted: 6,195,12,27,119,76,45,61,22,4,4,7,232,3,2

So looking at it from two view points;
1. If we don't use our #8 pick on each of these positions, what % of the top players could we have gotten with our 2nd pick this year (#77 mid 3rd)?
2. If we use our #8 pick on each of these positions, what % of the top players were still there at #8?

Summarizing this info, the info below lists by position, the % of the top players that got drafted #8 or after AND the % of the top players that were drafted pick 77 or after:

POS........>=8...........>=77
QB...........53%............13%
WR..........60%............20%
OT............79%...........24%
RB............87%...........33%
OG..........100%...........61%

We're in a tough spot in the fact that if we don't get a guy at #8, we need to wait until #77, an eternity! Now I know that SB winning teams have a top 15 QB. (and no Sammy and Chase aren't in there) Not sure how many have top players in the other positions, but maybe I can look into it.

It looks to me like we should draft a QB if one of the top two are there at #8 and we have a high grade on them. Next rare seems to be WR followed by OT, RB and OG. With the exception of OG, we won't likely get one later on. sad.gif

Anyone?
GroundedBird
Ok... I'll play.

There was a lot of analysis there. I don't think there will be a OL or a QB that will be worthy of the #8 pick.

Consensus draft published looked like this:
1. Titans -Laraemy Tunsil OT
2. Browns - Carson Wentz QB
3. Chargers - Jalen Ramsey CB
4. Dallas - Joey Bosa - DE
5. Jaguars - Myles Jack - OLB
6. Ravens - Ronnie Stanley OL
7. 49ers - Jared Goff QB

Consensus draft

So that would leave us with:
DeForest Buckner DL
Venon Hargreaves CB
Zeke Elliot - RB

I know most people have been saying DB.

My philosophy is:
1. QB is most important
2. Protecting QB is second most important
3. Getting to the opposing QB is third.

Given that, if Stanley doesn't slip then I would take DeForest Buckner next.

We may then have to make adjustments but that would be an awesome line. (also a pass rush helps the DBs)
mcnabbulous
QB, pass rush or DB. What team is winning SBs with two top-10 OTs?
Joegrane
Thanks for taking the time to gather the numbers.

I don't know how you'd get a number of top pass rushers since they can be DE or OLB. Maybe sacks + hurries would do but that would take some number crunching.

The other position might be CB.


QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 12 2016, 11:17 PM) *
So suppose we would like to draft a top 15 QB, which is the minimum I think a QB needs to be for us to have a shot to win a SB, where do these QB's get drafted?

What if you believe it is OL OL OL? Where do the top OT or OG come from?

If you are a Run the Ball Andy type of guy, where do the top RB's get drafted?

If you are trying to upgrade a pitiful WR corps, where do those great WR's come from?

I took those QB who I believe are the top 15 Active QB's; Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Roeth, Rivers, Romo, Wilson, Luck, Newton, Ryan, Flacco, Manning, Dalton, Palmer, Stafford.

These QB were drafted 199th, 24th, 32nd, 11th, 4th, UDFA, 75th, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 18th, 1st, 35th, 1st, 1st.

I used the AV measure from Pro Football Reference to get the top 24 OT's, who were all OT's with AV >=9 Last year.

These OT's were drafted: 55,4,UDFA,69,9,210,15,75,92,4,9,150,63,41,4,112,66,23,6,23,UDFA,6,28,58

Using OG's with AV >= 8, I get the top 18 OG's last year.

These OG's were drafted: 24,17,135,20,92,86,64,81,32,207,101,UDFA,172, UDFA, 16,193,225,27

I used the top 15 RB's in rushing yards per game in 2015 to identify the top 15 RB's.

These RB's were drafted: 7,31,10,4,UDFA,181,103,13,28,44,53,233,36,UDFA,24.

I used the top 15 WR's in yards per game in 2015 to identify the top 15 WR's.

These WR's were drafted: 6,195,12,27,119,76,45,61,22,4,4,7,232,3,2

So looking at it from two view points;
1. If we don't use our #8 pick on each of these positions, what % of the top players could we have gotten with our 2nd pick this year (#77 mid 3rd)?
2. If we use our #8 pick on each of these positions, what % of the top players were still there at #8?

Summarizing this info, the info below lists by position, the % of the top players that got drafted #8 or after AND the % of the top players that were drafted pick 77 or after:

POS........>=8...........>=77
QB...........53%............13%
WR..........60%............20%
OT............79%...........24%
RB............87%...........33%
OG..........100%...........61%

We're in a tough spot in the fact that if we don't get a guy at #8, we need to wait until #77, an eternity! Now I know that SB winning teams have a top 15 QB. (and no Sammy and Chase aren't in there) Not sure how many have top players in the other positions, but maybe I can look into it.

It looks to me like we should draft a QB if one of the top two are there at #8 and we have a high grade on them. Next rare seems to be WR followed by OT, RB and OG. With the exception of OG, we won't likely get one later on. sad.gif

Anyone?

Joegrane
According to one draft-value board it would take the eagles's best third round pick to move from #8 to #6. If they then plan to trade Bradford to SB champs, I assume they'd at least recoup that pick. Don't you think Howie would just LOVE to screw Chip, regardless of whether it is the best decision for the team?

DLine is the strongest unit on the team. If I had to pick one of those at #8 I'd go with a CB, one of their biggest positions of need.

I would try to trade down and pick up a 2nd round pick.

QUOTE (GroundedBird @ Mar 13 2016, 01:23 PM) *
...
There was a lot of analysis there. I don't think there will be a OL or a QB that will be worthy of the #8 pick.

Consensus draft published looked like this:
1. Titans -Laraemy Tunsil OT
2. Browns - Carson Wentz QB
3. Chargers - Jalen Ramsey CB
4. Dallas - Joey Bosa - DE
5. Jaguars - Myles Jack - OLB
6. Ravens - Ronnie Stanley OL
7. 49ers - Jared Goff QB

Consensus draft

So that would leave us with:
DeForest Buckner DL
Venon Hargreaves CB
Zeke Elliot - RB

I know most people have been saying DB.

My philosophy is:
1. QB is most important
2. Protecting QB is second most important
3. Getting to the opposing QB is third.

Given that, if Stanley doesn't slip then I would take DeForest Buckner next.

We may then have to make adjustments but that would be an awesome line. (also a pass rush helps the DBs)
GroundedBird
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Mar 13 2016, 04:58 PM) *
According to one draft-value board it would take the eagles's best third round pick to move from #8 to #6. If they then plan to trade Bradford to SB champs, I assume they'd at least recoup that pick. Don't you think Howie would just LOVE to screw Chip, regardless of whether it is the best decision for the team?

DLine is the strongest unit on the team. If I had to pick one of those at #8 I'd go with a CB, one of their biggest positions of need.

I would try to trade down and pick up a 2nd round pick.


Picking Buckner would be like reassembling the 91 Line with Reggie and Jerome.

That was fun to watch.

It would also negate the Cowboys' strength.
nephillymike
QUOTE (GroundedBird @ Mar 13 2016, 04:34 PM) *
Picking Buckner would be like reassembling the 91 Line with Reggie and Jerome.

That was fun to watch.

It would also negate the Cowboys' strength.



I know he recently said about liking being in the top ten. However, the guys in the know are saying that Howie has said several times how much he is bothered by not having a 2nd.

Trading down has been his MO in the past.

And as my other numbers draft thread shows, trading out of 8 and into 20 with the 35th pick beats the #8 pick 5 PB player to 3 and 8-2-2 with AV of the picks. 8-2-2 is more than a decent return. Add an expected premium bump and it will be that much better.

Trade down Don Howie, trade down!!
GroundedBird
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 13 2016, 05:40 PM) *
I know he recently said about liking being in the top ten. However, the guys in the know are saying that Howie has said several times how much he is bothered by not having a 2nd.

Trading down has been his MO in the past.

And as my other numbers draft thread shows, trading out of 8 and into 20 with the 35th pick beats the #8 pick 5 PB player to 3 and 8-2-2 with AV of the picks. 8-2-2 is more than a decent return. Add an expected premium bump and it will be that much better.

Trade down Don Howie, trade down!!



According to this Value Chart, the 8th pick is worth 1400 points. That's worth a 16 and 48. Those are Detroit's picks. The Falcons (at #17) need a pass rusher. They may be interested in dealing.

We still may be able to get Jack Conklin at that spot.
nephillymike
QUOTE (GroundedBird @ Mar 13 2016, 05:17 PM) *
According to this Value Chart, the 8th pick is worth 1400 points. That's worth a 16 and 48. Those are Detroit's picks. The Falcons (at #17) need a pass rusher. They may be interested in dealing.

We still may be able to get Jack Conklin at that spot.


Now you're thinking!!
Zero
QUOTE (GroundedBird @ Mar 13 2016, 06:17 PM) *
According to this Value Chart, the 8th pick is worth 1400 points. That's worth a 16 and 48. Those are Detroit's picks. The Falcons (at #17) need a pass rusher. They may be interested in dealing.

We still may be able to get Jack Conklin at that spot.

I'm not much good at figuring odds, but I'd guess that picking at 8 allows a better chance of drafting a good player than at 17 ... less likely to f*ck it up even when adding in an additional pick around 49. We've still got bruises from trying to do too much too fast, if there's a bona fide there at 8 I don't see the logic in moving away from him to get two maybes. The trick is identifying the "bona fide" and not being seduced by the maybes.
Joegrane
Someone, maybe csnphilly did an article on the players picked by the Eagles in the Top 10 over the past 20 years. It was not a pretty list--as many disappointments as successes.

That's why I'd had preferred to trade down pick up a 2nd or 3rd--two starting-caliber players at appropriate positions.

For example I had in mind a Rt OT. You don't need to draft them in the top half of round 1. However, with the signing of the big OG there has been some speculation that they wonder if he could also be a stop-gap at Rt OT. I bet they don't draft an OT in round 1.

QUOTE (Zero @ Mar 15 2016, 05:55 AM) *
...ut I'd guess that picking at 8 allows a better chance of drafting a good player than at 17 ... less likely to f*ck it up even when adding in an additional pick around 49. We've still got bruises from trying to do too much too fast, if there's a bona fide there at 8 I don't see the logic in moving away from him to get two maybes. The trick is identifying the "bona fide" and not being seduced by the maybes.

Reality Fan
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Mar 15 2016, 09:33 AM) *
Someone, maybe csnphilly did an article on the players picked by the Eagles in the Top 10 over the past 20 years. It was not a pretty list--as many disappointments as successes.

That's why I'd had preferred to trade down pick up a 2nd or 3rd--two starting-caliber players at appropriate positions.

For example I had in mind a Rt OT. You don't need to draft them in the top half of round 1. However, with the signing of the big OG there has been some speculation that they wonder if he could also be a stop-gap at Rt OT. I bet they don't draft an OT in round 1.



Really? Not a pretty list?

Since 1991:
8 Antoine Davis
7 Mike Mamula
2 Donovan McNabb
6 Corey Simon
4 Lane Johnson

Davis was a solid starter and Mamula gets a bad rap....outside of all the "hurries" he averaged 6 sacks a year but the other 3 are all top shelf.
Eyrie
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 15 2016, 06:39 PM) *
Really? Not a pretty list?

Since 1991:
8 Antoine Davis
7 Mike Mamula
2 Donovan McNabb
6 Corey Simon
4 Lane Johnson

Davis was a solid starter and Mamula gets a bad rap....outside of all the "hurries" he averaged 6 sacks a year but the other 3 are all top shelf.

Mamula would get less criticism if the Bucs had taken Crap and Bust rather than Sapp and Brooks with the picks we traded to move up.
Joegrane
They went back farther than I had recalled and also had differing opinions of some players.
http://www.csnphilly.com/football-philadel...o-byron-maxwell

QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 15 2016, 01:39 PM) *
Really? Not a pretty list?

Since 1991:
8 Antoine Davis
7 Mike Mamula
2 Donovan McNabb
6 Corey Simon
4 Lane Johnson

Davis was a solid starter and Mamula gets a bad rap....outside of all the "hurries" he averaged 6 sacks a year but the other 3 are all top shelf.
Joegrane
That's exactly my point.

Unless you think the Eagles *need* the QB or shutdown corner, would they be better off with two starter-quality players.
QUOTE (Eyrie @ Mar 15 2016, 03:40 PM) *
Mamula would get less criticism if the Bucs had taken Crap and Bust rather than Sapp and Brooks with the picks we traded to move up.

Reality Fan
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Mar 15 2016, 03:40 PM) *
They went back farther than I had recalled and also had differing opinions of some players.
http://www.csnphilly.com/football-philadel...o-byron-maxwell


First, it was an article by the drunk fatass Ruben Frank who can't even get his facts straight...Davis started 5 years for the Eagles, granted it was due to injury in year 5 but he lost his job because they drafted Bernard Williams and Davis was a lousy guard. Simon was a stud, perhaps Frank was too drunk to remember but Simon was actually given the franchise tag by the Eagles (so he must have really sucked...Frank is such an idiot) but Simon was pissed and dug in which is why he was traded to the Colts...he suffered a major injury in Indy...that is why he left football...the guy was a terrific player.

Ruben Frank must have pictures of a CSN exec to even have his job...

Eyrie
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Mar 15 2016, 08:47 PM) *
That's exactly my point.

Unless you think the Eagles *need* the QB or shutdown corner, would they be better off with two starter-quality players.

As the Mamula example shows, it all depends on the outcome.

If we stay put, we could pick our franchise QB. If we trade down, we could secure the future of the OL and then use the additional pick to address WR.

The odds favour the second scenario, but the right QB is the higher reward.

The perfect scenario is the second one combined with Bradford suddenly becoming an elite QB, but I don't think anyone is holding their breath.



Reality Fan
QUOTE (Eyrie @ Mar 15 2016, 06:12 PM) *
As the Mamula example shows, it all depends on the outcome.

If we stay put, we could pick our franchise QB. If we trade down, we could secure the future of the OL and then use the additional pick to address WR.

The odds favour the second scenario, but the right QB is the higher reward.

The perfect scenario is the second one combined with Bradford suddenly becoming an elite QB, but I don't think anyone is holding their breath.


and if you draft the best QB in a weak QB draft you can set your team back.....it would make no sense to draft one of these guys...I might almost take a shot with Wentz but he will be long gone...I want either Jack, the CB or Treadwell
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 15 2016, 07:20 PM) *
I want either Jack, the CB or Treadwell

Hargreaves and Jack are probably my top-2. It's hard to stomach having to spend another high pick on a WR, given the resources we've spent there in recent drafts.

I haven't seen much of Treadwell, but Coleman is a stud. He reminds me of a some sort of Steve Smith/TO combo. Obviously doesn't have the TO physicality (who does) but something about his route running is reminiscent.

8 might be a bit high for either guy. I say lets keep building on defense.
Eyrie
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 16 2016, 01:20 AM) *
and if you draft the best QB in a weak QB draft you can set your team back.....it would make no sense to draft one of these guys...I might almost take a shot with Wentz but he will be long gone...I want either Jack, the CB or Treadwell

There have been enough doubts expressed about the QBs that I'd be happier trading back and addressing two needs.
Eagle2720
I think 8 is too early for Treadwell as well even though I do like him. Coleman is supposedly has a lot of speed. He's been projected about 15-31. I also like Will Fuller, lots of speed too(fastest at the combine) and he's a Philly guy and has said I'm interviews that he embraces that Philly attitude and toughness in getting him to where he is today, he's been on and off for the 1st round, usually 20's to early/mid 2nd. If we can't get Jack or Hargreaves at 8, I would like to trade back and get extra picks and then take Conklin(if he's there) or best WR available, most likely Coleman or Fuller.
mcnabbulous
Think Fuller has questionable hands.
Eagle2720
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Mar 16 2016, 06:30 PM) *
Think Fuller has questionable hands.


He'd fit right in with our receivers now! biggrin.gif
nephillymike
Coleman supposedly ran a 4.37 at his pro day today.

That'll work!
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 16 2016, 05:57 PM) *
Coleman supposedly ran a 4.37 at his pro day today.

That'll work!

My understanding is that he had an injury too. Possibly a hernia. Can't remember what I read.
Zero
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Mar 16 2016, 08:22 PM) *
My understanding is that he had an injury too. Possibly a hernia. Can't remember what I read.

QUOTE
Coleman revealed the sports hernia he suffered in November occurred while he was practicing to make a cameo at cornerback against Oklahoma.
Linc ...

Coleman will probably go in the first round and I doubt to the Eagles. I'd be happy with a guy like Sterling Shepard though.
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