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Full Version: So How Does Value Compare Among #8, vs. #13, vs. #20
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nephillymike
So we sit with the 8th pick after some nifty maneuvering by Don Howie.

We had the 13th pick and prior to our move up, the popular thought was that we would trade down to 20 ish to recoup that 2nd round pick.

So based on draft trade value and assuming no move up premiums, here is what the equivalent values are:

Stay at #8 = 1,400 value points
Trade down from 8 to #13 = 1,400 - 1150 = 250, so we would need pick #68 (high 3rd) to balance it out
Trade down from 8 to 20 = 1,400 - 850 = 550, so we would need pick #35(high 2nd) to balance it out.

Which is the better option based on the last 12 drafts?
How to quantify the players for comparison?

For quantification purposes, Pro Football Reference has a metric called Approx Value. It is a statistical measure that gives a number that signifies the players performance value for a year or career. By adding up the AV for the picks for the years, you can see how the options compare. I looked for the last 12 drafts and compared the AV's of the players drafted in those
spots to see how they compare. The AV's are cumulative, so the older drafts should have higher AV's, but within the years, the AV's are comparable. Here goes:

Year.....AV Pick #8......Picks 13 & 68......Picks 20 & 35.....Comments
2015........7......................9.........................7.................# 8 Beasley highest ranked,no PB or AP's
2014........3.....................31.......................24................#13 A. Donald PB and All Pro
2013.......16....................21.......................24................#13 Richardson PB, #20 K. Long PB
2012.......42....................26.......................42................#8 Tannehill ties #20 K. Wright + #35 C. Upshaw
2011.......15....................37.......................70................#35 A. Dalton PB
2010.......26....................35.......................33................#20 Kareem Jackson = 29 AV. #8 R. McClain = 26 AV
2009.......33....................40.......................74.................#35 Laurinaitis = 52 AV, # 13 Orakpo PB
2008.......14....................47.......................84.................#13 J. Stewart PB, #20 Talib and #35 Flowers both PB
2007.......20....................43.......................36.................#13 Carriker AV 23
2006.......49....................48......................115................#20 Hali PB 76 AV, #8 Whitmer PB
2005.......53....................52.......................34.................#8 Rolle PB 53 AV #13 Jammal Brown PB & AP 49 AV
2004.......61....................51.......................56.................#8 D. Hall PB

Best Deal = #20 + #35 = 5, #13 + #68 = 4, #8 = 2 (also one tie in '12 between #8 & #20+35
Best Player = #20/35 = 6, #8 = 4, #13/68 = 2
Pro Bowl Players = #13/68 = 5, #20/35 = 5, #8 = 3
All Pro Players = #13/68 = 2, #20/35 = 0, #8 = 0

In actuality, there is normally a premium that would make these numbers look more favorable for the trade down.

So, contrary to many opinions these days, the results show that there are very good reasons to trade down.......all the way down to #20 and get that high 2nd round pick.

This is consistent with other hindsight draft board value chart redos which show that the talent distribution is much flatter than the trade chart suggests. There's a market inefficiency there Don Howie, get it done!!
Reality Fan
Was that Nabby or Z who came up with Don Howie?...that is priceless...
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 12 2016, 11:23 PM) *
Was that Nabby or Z who came up with Don Howie?...that is priceless...


It was me, I heard it on 97.5, not sure if it was Mikey Miss or Cuz.
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