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nephillymike
If a team plays zone coverage, I think Maxwell can be an above average CB for someone. Sure he tackles like a pussy, and smiles after bad losses and all, but what is someone like that worth if they have to pay him 8.7M this year?

Murray? He looked like a shot runner last year. But if you expect him to be an above average RB, you are paying him $7M this year?

Alonso? I guess he can be an average OLB. He was in BUF. He's cheap, only $1M.


My guess as to their worth, when you consider the high money they're making is:

Alonzo = 4th round pick (cheap salary)
Maxwell = 5th round pick (high salary, but he is a CB, high demand pos)
Murray = either we give up a 7th or we get a 7th, let's say we get a 7th, that we're out of the giving up more picks in a deal after Nick Foles last year.

So judging at the trade point value at the mid point of the round for each of these guys I get 72+34+9 = 115 points

115 draft pick points gets me the first pick of the 4th round.

I take my 1st pick of the 4th round value and add it to my #77 pick (1st of my 2 3rds) and that gets me to 320 points, which is the 58th pick, the bottom of the 2nd round, an improvement of only 20 draft slots coming from the 3rd into the 2nd. That's not too impressive a haul.

HOWEVER, if you believe in salary cap $ = FA $, then the almost $10M salary cap freed up would be able to land us some prime FA's (assuming that we elect to use it).

I invite anyone to try to predict a fair draft pick haul for each of the three and I will do the calc and see what pick that gets us.

It's March 7th, otherwise known as Capologists day. Every body join in! A free pocket protector to whoever guesses the closest in the aggregate.
Reality Fan
This article suggests that the Eagles will get the Dolphins 2nd round pick AND swap places in the first round...

Seems too good to be true....

http://theeagleswire.usatoday.com/2016/03/...es-draft-plans/
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 7 2016, 08:46 PM) *
This article suggests that the Eagles will get the Dolphins 2nd round pick AND swap places in the first round...

Seems too good to be true....

http://theeagleswire.usatoday.com/2016/03/...es-draft-plans/



Based upon my little mind exercise above, it sure does.

I remember last year when we thought we were getting a 2nd in the Bradford deal but instead gave up a 2nd.

I'll keep fingers crossed and wait!!

Once bitten, twice shy.
Joegrane
To Howie apparently they are worth a couple of shovels of manure for the holly bushes around Chip's gravestone.

I hope Howie gets this right or he could set back the Eagles as much as Chip did.

He now has the $ to extend Cox and get a few FAs, presumably low to mid-priced CB, WR, maybe OG. Could he have his eye on a FA RB?

The way things are going will Barner survive the Duck purge? I suppose RB will be a high priority in the draft.

I suppose C Barwin is the starting SAM LB.

Some large predatory male mammals will kill the recent offspring of his rival so he can impregnate the female. While he was exiled under Chip, Howie must have been watching too many old episodes of Wild Kingdom.

QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 7 2016, 08:46 PM) *
This article suggests that the Eagles will get the Dolphins 2nd round pick AND swap places in the first round...

Seems too good to be true....



nephillymike
They always had the cap room to extend Cox.

Not sure if they had the cash though.

The only way this works is if they use that money to invest in other FA's for this year's team.

Before the purge, my marching orders were get me a FA WR, OG, S and CB, realizing that those signings could include two returnees and two new guys.

Now we need one more CB and depth at RB, and depth at OLB. You can get RB depth in the draft but sign a FA to satisfy a draft need we had that the new drafted RB will replace.

No free ride Howie. I'm hoping this isn't a stash plan. I knew they were in deeper than usual, out of their comfort zone. Years of experience make me more skeptical than I perhaps should be.
Zero
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 7 2016, 08:46 PM) *
This article suggests that the Eagles will get the Dolphins 2nd round pick AND swap places in the first round...

Seems too good to be true....

http://theeagleswire.usatoday.com/2016/03/...es-draft-plans/

Unbelievable. Really ... I can't believe that would happen. I also heard that the Titans are giving up their #2 for Murray. Also, unbelievable. If these happen, there'll be a statue of Howie at Nova Care. Hell, there'd be another at the Linc.
Reality Fan
you don't think Howie is not more concerned with doing well to put his elf shoes on Chip's neck than saving money?

Cash is not an issue for them....besides the fact that they are flush with it, you of all people should know how cheap money is right now....

I think Howie is purely focused on having a winning season after removing all the dumb "Chip the GM" moves.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 7 2016, 09:16 PM) *
you don't think Howie is not more concerned with doing well to put his elf shoes on Chip's neck than saving money?

Cash is not an issue for them....besides the fact that they are flush with it, you of all people should know how cheap money is right now....

I think Howie is purely focused on having a winning season after removing all the dumb "Chip the GM" moves.



I hear you but years of being in the 10-15% cap stash range have got me jaded.

What do you get as fair compensation by going through the exercise I did? I mean the fact that Murray and Maxwell make so much could really impact the comp. Although I did see that Murray adjusted his deal, so if that is true, his draft comp should go up considerably.

For once, I want draft picks this year and any sweeteners on performance to be in future years.

I don't want 2017 picks that can be sweetened based on performance. Give me 2016 picks with any sweeteners coming as 2017 low round picks!!
nephillymike
FWIW, if all they did was trade 1st round spots, that is a move worth 250 points which is equal to a high 3rd round pick (the 5th pick in the 3rd round).

So that is even worth more than the 1st pick in the 4th that I estimated.

If Murray reduced his deal, than that should sweeten the pick for him from maybe a 7th to a 5th??
Joegrane
I agree entirely.

Howie is having fun as GM. I just hope he is not doing this as a solo act, but rather, together with Schwartz and his O coaches.

QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 7 2016, 09:16 PM) *
you don't think Howie is not more concerned with doing well to put his elf shoes on Chip's neck than saving money?

Cash is not an issue for them....
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 7 2016, 09:23 PM) *
I hear you but years of being in the 10-15% cap stash range have got me jaded.

What do you get as fair compensation by going through the exercise I did? I mean the fact that Murray and Maxwell make so much could really impact the comp. Although I did see that Murray adjusted his deal, so if that is true, his draft comp should go up considerably.

For once, I want draft picks this year and any sweeteners on performance to be in future years.

I don't want 2017 picks that can be sweetened based on performance. Give me 2016 picks with any sweeteners coming as 2017 low round picks!!



But that cap cushion was built in as Howie negotiated contracts...he is fixing the negotiating that someone else did....not sure that cap cushion rule will hold true for Howie 2.0 year 1
Zero
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 8 2016, 12:55 AM) *
Buy that cap cushion was built in as Howie negotiated contracts...he is fixing the negotiating that someone else did....not sure that cap suchion rule will hold true for Howie 2.0 year 1

I think he said that he may have to limit or do without the cushion this year.
mcnabbulous
If we got more than a 4, 5 and 7, I'd be surprised. I can't imagine Murray drawing more than a 7.
nephillymike
So if Murray re did the non guaranteed portion of his deal, then he could be worth more than a 7th. Although, his 2016 salary is fully guaranteed so he wouldn't have adjusted that, but $2M of the 7.5M of '17 is guaranteed, so he could have lowered some of that non guaranteed portion.

Let's say, for shits and giggles that we got a 5th for him.

Throw that into the calculation and now our aggregate draft pick haul is 72+34+34 = 150 points = 88th pick = 25th of 3rd.

Take those and add it to the #77 and we could move up from 205 pts to 355 pts = pick #54, the 23rd pick of the 2nd round. That could get our 2nd round pick back, but e'd give up a 3rd for it. I'd much rather prefer to trade down from 13 to get that 2nd.

#13 to #8 = 250 points, so that would be more impressive haul. I think Prisco is smoking weed if he thinks we got a 4th too.

So in order to get the extra 100 points to value the deal, it would mean they'd have to value Alonso as a 3rd round pick instead of a 4th, which I don't see.

Looking at the rankings of cash paid by player at each position, Murray is due to be 3rd amongst RB's with 7.0M and Maxwell is 11th among CB's at 8.5M. None of them look anywhere near the bargain to get us the extra juice.

I'm still thinking it's closer to my original guess.

Nobody's made a case for more.

We'll see.

However, what if we moved up in the first, with the intention of picking up a QB? If we're at #8, don't you get one if a top 2 QB is there??????

Or, at #8, it should be easier to get a good return to get more than just a 2nd to drop down? Maybe a 2nd and a 3rd to go from 8 to 20ish?? If there is a QB still there, the haul may be very lucrative.

One thing about Howie, the dude knows draft day maneuvering. Not that he picks good players, but he massages the hell out of a draft board!!!
nephillymike
FWIW, Murray kept the same fully guaranteed money, but took $4M less in base pay over four years. Has greater upside in incentives though.

Doesn't seem significant enough to sweeten our draft compensation though. sad.gif

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/...-maximum-value/
Reality Fan
For what it is worth....

If the Eagles are looking at Daniels as reported than Sanchez is on the block.....and with Bradford signing the contract he did it is clearly a "show me" contract which sort of indicates that they are hoping he is the guy so I would be shocked if they took a guy in round 1. If Bradford plays well than you want to trade the guy you drafted and you are not going to get another first round pick for the guy you took.

I see them drafting a guy in the later rounds....unless they trade Bradford to the Texans or the Broncos....lol
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 8 2016, 10:52 PM) *
For what it is worth....

If the Eagles are looking at Daniels as reported than Sanchez is on the block.....and with Bradford signing the contract he did it is clearly a "show me" contract which sort of indicates that they are hoping he is the guy so I would be shocked if they took a guy in round 1. If Bradford plays well than you want to trade the guy you drafted and you are not going to get another first round pick for the guy you took.

I see them drafting a guy in the later rounds....unless they trade Bradford to the Texans or the Broncos....lol


Sanchez is worthless in a trade. They know he will be free when we cut him and I don't think anyone will want to jump ahead of others via the trade as opposed to signing him as a FA.

We very rarely get the chance to draft a top 2 QB. Despite what many have said, these top two QB's are comparable to most other years according to the pre-draft ratings that I follow. I can't speak of QB's #3 to 10 though.

It is not likely that Bradford is the answer. You mention of Cousin's short claim to fame. What about Bradford's? Years of suckitude and then 7 good games in a season where he finished near the bottom in QBR? I want him to do well, but can you put an ounce of certainty that he will?

If we can get one of the two, you draft him, sit him on the bench, and then let the chips fall where they may. There are much worse problems to have.

True though if they are looking at Daniel, it lessens the chance they do it. It wouldn't for me. I wouldn't approach Daniel but would sit tight with Sanchez until I get the QB, then I release Sanchez. No sense setting a new FA backup QB up with false promises.
mcnabbulous
I agree with you, Mikey. If we can get one of the top-2 guys, and you believe either of them can be the guy, you take the chance.

I haven't watched either guy to have an opinion on their play, but Goff's measurable scare me. He physically reminds me of lots of guys that have failed. But if Doug believes he is the guy, pull the trigger.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 8 2016, 11:48 PM) *
Sanchez is worthless in a trade. They know he will be free when we cut him and I don't think anyone will want to jump ahead of others via the trade as opposed to signing him as a FA.

We very rarely get the chance to draft a top 2 QB. Despite what many have said, these top two QB's are comparable to most other years according to the pre-draft ratings that I follow. I can't speak of QB's #3 to 10 though.

It is not likely that Bradford is the answer. You mention of Cousin's short claim to fame. What about Bradford's? Years of suckitude and then 7 good games in a season where he finished near the bottom in QBR? I want him to do well, but can you put an ounce of certainty that he will?

If we can get one of the two, you draft him, sit him on the bench, and then let the chips fall where they may. There are much worse problems to have.

True though if they are looking at Daniel, it lessens the chance they do it. It wouldn't for me. I wouldn't approach Daniel but would sit tight with Sanchez until I get the QB, then I release Sanchez. No sense setting a new FA backup QB up with false promises.


You need to read a little better....I clearly point out that you should use the same logic on Cousins that you use on Bradford.....

And my final word on Bradford....he played for the fucking Rams.....just look at their record with or without Bradford...it is a dreadful organization.....as soon as someone succeeds there you let me know..he played for a terrible coach in Spags who somehow has a job with the Giants after a historically bad defense. It is almost as if he is still in the prove it mode.

And I was the guy lobbying not to pay Bradford big money...or have you missed that during your 18/36/72 rants?


nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 9 2016, 09:33 AM) *
You need to read a little better....I clearly point out that you should use the same logic on Cousins that you use on Bradford.....

And my final word on Bradford....he played for the fucking Rams.....just look at their record with or without Bradford...it is a dreadful organization.....as soon as someone succeeds there you let me know..he played for a terrible coach in Spags who somehow has a job with the Giants after a historically bad defense. It is almost as if he is still in the prove it mode.

And I was the guy lobbying not to pay Bradford big money...or have you missed that during your 18/36/72 rants?



What 72/4/40 rant?

I know nothing of which you speak!!

Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 9 2016, 07:38 PM) *
What 72/4/40 rant?

I know nothing of which you speak!!


I thought you were Tom Condon's nephew....
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