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nephillymike
And no RF I'm not talking Bradford!! He IS worth $18.001M!!

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/marcell-dareus/

This is the market deal they would need to offer Fletcher Cox.

6 years, $96.5M, 25M SB, $43M initial guarantee, 60M total guarantee.

Suh's is getting more than this.

No DT is worth that much money.

I guess if the "we have to spend it somewhere" theory has some validity, but geez.

I heard this on 97.5 this AM.

Fletcher Cox to an interested team for a 1st and 2nd round pick in this years draft (BTW, best DT draft in ages)

Would you?

DT's are not worth that much.

My concern if we didn't spend it on him, it would sit in the stash unused.

But man, I think I would take the trade, use the $43M elsewhere and draft me a DT or two!!

Anyone.
Reality Fan
I would never, ever pay a DT anywhere near that regardless of his numbers......there are too many DTs that are serviceable....the problem with all these "experts" when they cite the market is that they think because one team screwed up that is now the market...there is no way Cox gets 16 per...none...zero
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Feb 25 2016, 10:51 PM) *
I would never, ever pay a DT anywhere near that regardless of his numbers......there are too many DTs that are serviceable....the problem with all these "experts" when they cite the market is that they think because one team screwed up that is now the market...there is no way Cox gets 16 per...none...zero



That might be true if he signs this year.

However, if he waits until he's a FA, 16M per year, MINIMUM!!

Maybe the one year early discount rate he gets in the $15M per range, UNLESS Darius signed a year early also (I'm not sure), then $16M it is.
====================================================================
EDIT - he did sign one year early. One other thing, Darius redone deal had the roughly the same Cap hit year 1 than the old deal as his 5th year option was picked up just like Cox was. Almost exact same situation.

I always assumed cox would save cap to help sign Bradford and buy two FA's. With that big of a deal, I guess it will be difficult to do. sad.gif
Zero
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 25 2016, 08:58 PM) *
And no RF I'm not talking Bradford!! He IS worth $18.001M!!

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/marcell-dareus/

This is the market deal they would need to offer Fletcher Cox.

6 years, $96.5M, 25M SB, $43M initial guarantee, 60M total guarantee.

Suh's is getting more than this.

No DT is worth that much money.

I guess if the "we have to spend it somewhere" theory has some validity, but geez.

I heard this on 97.5 this AM.

Fletcher Cox to an interested team for a 1st and 2nd round pick in this years draft (BTW, best DT draft in ages)

Would you?

DT's are not worth that much.

My concern if we didn't spend it on him, it would sit in the stash unused.

But man, I think I would take the trade, use the $43M elsewhere and draft me a DT or two!!

Anyone.

Every time I hear you suggest trading a known talent for draft picks I get confused, even without an excess of hops. So my stunned response would have to be that it depends on team reality. If they're ready to challenge then, no I don't trade him. If they acknowledge two years to challenge then maybe yes. The reaction of other players is relevant too. Right now they're restoring good karma with the players, once that's established again and the theme returns to one of solid business decisions then trading away a player like Cox can be done.

This year I don't trade him and try to sign him for those numbers for two reasons: his presence in the middle will go a long way to reestablishing confidence in the defense, and resigning him will send a message to the team that the era of releasing top talent is past. A third would be showing potential FAs that the Eagles are a team to join.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 25 2016, 11:19 PM) *
That might be true if he signs this year.

However, if he waits until he's a FA, 16M per year, MINIMUM!!

Maybe the one year early discount rate he gets in the $15M per range, UNLESS Darius signed a year early also (I'm not sure), then $16M it is.
====================================================================
EDIT - he did sign one year early. One other thing, Darius redone deal had the roughly the same Cap hit year 1 than the old deal as his 5th year option was picked up just like Cox was. Almost exact same situation.

I always assumed cox would save cap to help sign Bradford and buy two FA's. With that big of a deal, I guess it will be difficult to do. sad.gif



I will have to look at the particulars but I wonder if any of the teams that have gone deep into the playoffs or won it all have done something like paying a frickin DT that kind of money....I doubt it

Did a quick check and it is as I thought...the top 4 highest paid DTs play for teams with a combined record of 24-40

In fact, of the top 10 highest paid (I only looked at cap hit for 2016) only 2 teams had a winning record.

It is a great way to kill your chances...
Phits
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Feb 26 2016, 08:48 AM) *
I will have to look at the particulars but I wonder if any of the teams that have gone deep into the playoffs or won it all have done something like paying a frickin DT that kind of money....I doubt it

Did a quick check and it is as I thought...the top 4 highest paid DTs play for teams with a combined record of 24-40

In fact, of the top 10 highest paid (I only looked at cap hit for 2016) only 2 teams had a winning record.

It is a great way to kill your chances...

I am fairly certain that you will find this as a common theme for every position outside of QB. When was the last time a team with a highest paid (insert position) went deep into the playoffs.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (Phits @ Feb 26 2016, 10:09 AM) *
I am fairly certain that you will find this as a common theme for every position outside of QB. When was the last time a team with a highest paid (insert position) went deep into the playoffs.


and you would be wrong...sort of..the playoff teams are littered with highly paid defensive players....but at big impact positions....LB, DE and CB. Granted, these players are not making 16 million but several are in double digits. My point is that DT, while important, is not where you spend 16 million dollars....or even 10 million. AT those numbers, trade him for picks and move on....I like the guy but it is an exercise in futility...the money is better spent elsewhere...there are too many serviceable DTs that are much more reasonable.

mcnabbulous
Pass rusher is really the only place it makes sense to spend huge money on defense. With that said, Fletch is a beast and a major disruptor for us. The way things are moving with the cap, it might not be completely unreasonable very soon to spend that type of money on the guy.

I would have (reluctantly) traded him to move up and get Mariota last year. I don't think I'd trade him for a #1 and 2 this year.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Feb 26 2016, 02:19 PM) *
Pass rusher is really the only place it makes sense to spend huge money on defense. With that said, Fletch is a beast and a major disruptor for us. The way things are moving with the cap, it might not be completely unreasonable very soon to spend that type of money on the guy.

I would have (reluctantly) traded him to move up and get Mariota last year. I don't think I'd trade him for a #1 and 2 this year.


If he was a key cog in a defense that was ranked in the top 5 I would pay him in double figures but right now he is the best player on a mediocre defense and I am being kind. Now I believe that is the result of being led by Davis and playing in Kelly's world but I may be wrong enough to not pay a DT that ridiculous sum.If that is the number I let him play out his contract and then tag him. That gives you 2 drafts to find his replacement and this draft is rich with DTs.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Feb 26 2016, 02:02 PM) *
If he was a key cog in a defense that was ranked in the top 5 I would pay him in double figures but right now he is the best player on a mediocre defense and I am being kind. Now I believe that is the result of being led by Davis and playing in Kelly's world but I may be wrong enough to not pay a DT that ridiculous sum.If that is the number I let him play out his contract and then tag him. That gives you 2 drafts to find his replacement and this draft is rich with DTs.

Man, I have to disagree with you. It's pretty obvious that he's a special talent. He stands out on the field. The fact that he has so little supporting talent speaks more about his abilities. He's a top-5 DL.
Joegrane
Can't imagine Schwartz will be happy to loose the anchor of his D. The opportunity to coach Cox might be a major reason he was willing to come to Philly.

I don't claim to know what the correct answer is. That's a huge pile of money, but he is a difference-maker. Since he really is a Top 5 talent, the franchise tag is not unreasonable after next year; however, the Eagles don't have much of a history of using it.

I'm excited to see what that front 4 is going to do in their natural 4-3 alignment and with a good coach. They could be something special. The ability to get pressure without having to blitz can do wonders for the performance behind them. In addition Schwartz will have athletic LBs to work with. That should be a fun group for him to work with.

QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Feb 26 2016, 03:10 PM) *
Man, I have to disagree with you. It's pretty obvious that he's a special talent. He stands out on the field. The fact that he has so little supporting talent speaks more about his abilities. He's a top-5 DL.
Phits
This is the problem with drafting an "elite" talent....one day they are going to want to get paid. Either you are that team that helps develop them and help to make them great, or you're the team that vies for their services.

(The exception being the QB position)

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 25 2016, 08:58 PM) *
And no RF I'm not talking Bradford!! He IS worth $18.001M!!

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/marcell-dareus/

This is the market deal they would need to offer Fletcher Cox.

6 years, $96.5M, 25M SB, $43M initial guarantee, 60M total guarantee.

Suh's is getting more than this.

No DT is worth that much money.

I guess if the "we have to spend it somewhere" theory has some validity, but geez.

I heard this on 97.5 this AM.

Fletcher Cox to an interested team for a 1st and 2nd round pick in this years draft (BTW, best DT draft in ages)

Would you?

DT's are not worth that much.

My concern if we didn't spend it on him, it would sit in the stash unused.

But man, I think I would take the trade, use the $43M elsewhere and draft me a DT or two!!

Anyone.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Feb 26 2016, 03:10 PM) *
Man, I have to disagree with you. It's pretty obvious that he's a special talent. He stands out on the field. The fact that he has so little supporting talent speaks more about his abilities. He's a top-5 DL.



I agree with you completely....he is likely a top 5 DT but is that a position worthy of that kind of money....when you see no playoff team other than the Bengals that will pay their DT anywhere above 7 million you have to ask if it is a wise move.

Only one team with a top 10 defense paid their DT double digits......1.

The Bills are set to pay their DTs 22 million and ranked 15th.....Miami is paying Suh a ridiculous amount and they were 19th with him....it makes no sense..

But I disagree that his supporting cast has little talent....to the contrary.....Thorton was good as was Bennie...and the LBs were good for at least half the season.

He is good, even great....very special....but DT is not a position that I spend that much money on and neither do most successful teams.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Zero @ Feb 26 2016, 06:12 AM) *
Every time I hear you suggest trading a known talent for draft picks I get confused, even without an excess of hops. So my stunned response would have to be that it depends on team reality. If they're ready to challenge then, no I don't trade him. If they acknowledge two years to challenge then maybe yes. The reaction of other players is relevant too. Right now they're restoring good karma with the players, once that's established again and the theme returns to one of solid business decisions then trading away a player like Cox can be done.

This year I don't trade him and try to sign him for those numbers for two reasons: his presence in the middle will go a long way to reestablishing confidence in the defense, and resigning him will send a message to the team that the era of releasing top talent is past. A third would be showing potential FAs that the Eagles are a team to join.


Yeah, I'm not high on draft picks as you know. Instead of picks, trade him for NFL talent at positions of need and a pick to even it out.

RF did the leg work and his research supports my gut feel, investing heavily in DT isn't a winning formula. I do wonder how much investing heavily in ANY position except QB is a detriment, so maybe there is some of that.


Problem is, Howie doesn't see it that way and he's boxed us in. There is a good short term benefit to team talent this year, provided that they do it in a cap saving way and the cash outlay doesn't cost us the two FA's I want, but even then,, you can get four or five new players with that money.

I'm rarely ever a "don't spend money guy" as you know. This is a no brainer, unfortunately.
Zero
There's more than one way to look at this. How does a player like Cox affect the players around him? Can a team have lesser talent at CB, thus less cost because of what Cox does up front? Can they have a less costly DE, MLB because of his play? Did Reggie White make Clyde Simmons and Seth Joyner better players?

Do the teams that RF looks at have a coordinated, sensible approach to how they spread the money? I don't have an answer but I'd think it's relevant.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (Zero @ Feb 27 2016, 06:58 AM) *
There's more than one way to look at this. How does a player like Cox affect the players around him? Can a team have lesser talent at CB, thus less cost because of what Cox does up front? Can they have a less costly DE, MLB because of his play? Did Reggie White make Clyde Simmons and Seth Joyner better players?

Do the teams that RF looks at have a coordinated, sensible approach to how they spread the money? I don't have an answer but I'd think it's relevant.


A valid point Z.

Here you go for 2015: The player, where their defense ranked and their salary
PLAYER
2015 AVERAGE
1 Ndamukong Suh Miami 19th
DEFENSIVE TACKLE $19,062,500
2 Marcell Dareus Bills 15th
DEFENSIVE TACKLE $16,095,686
3 Gerald McCoy Tampa 26th
DEFENSIVE TACKLE $15,866,667
4 Haloti Ngata 23rd
DEFENSIVE TACKLE $12,131,000
5 Geno Atkins Bengals 2nd
DEFENSIVE TACKLE $10,665,400
6 Corey Liuget San Diego 21st
DEFENSIVE TACKLE $10,250,000
7 Tyrone Crawford Dallas 16th
DEFENSIVE TACKLE $9,000,000
8 Kyle Williams Bills 15th
DEFENSIVE TACKLE $7,433,333
9 Arthur Jones Colts 25th
DEFENSIVE TACKLE $6,600,000
10 Paul Soliai Atlanta 14th
DEFENSIVE TACKLE $6,400,000

Other than the Bengals, none of these highly paid tackles have enough of an impact on their team's defense to rank it highly. This is not that I don't like Cox, to the contrary, I love the guy but the numbers do not lie....teams that spend highly at that position do not show favorably in the end result.
Zero
I tried starting the research but gave up ... not enough patience. But an example to my point is: 1. what do the Dolphins pay other defensive players; 2. how is that unit coached; and, 3. is the GM effective in manipulating the talent?

Is it a valid comparison to look at the Patriots and how they used and benefited from Wilfork for 11 years? I have no idea how his salary and companion defensive player salaries compare, but there are players Belichick will pay and keep and there are others he will let walk - and some return. Wilfork stayed and the defense was good enough to help that team win a lot of games.

It may boil down to what a team considers to be a key position, and it seems that Schwartz's defenses have hinged around a dominate DT.
Reality Fan
Wilfork's last contract with the Pats was 3 years and 23 million and he was let go before his final year of 7.6 million was realized.What teams pay other defensive positions should not really factor in here because the focus is squarely on what they pay the DT and what result they get.

The bottom line is teams that overpay at the DT position have defenses that perform in the lower half of the league which indicates that it is a position to save money on, not blow the bank on. When I started looking at this I had no idea and was frankly shocked....but the numbers do not lie.

As far as Schwartz is concerned it is the DEs that are the highlight of his teams...the whole line attacks but the ends are the ones who got paid.....admittedly I did not dig super deep but I don't recall Jason Fisk or Josh Evans or Henry Ford or John Thorton getting a big contract. It was not until Suh came along that a big number came about but that is also why the lions moved on. With Suh, it was not until his last season that they ranked highly on defense in Detroit.
nephillymike
Taxes to do, so short on time, but I wonder what the rankings are for D's that pay top (three or five) money for CB's, S's, ILB, OLB, DE's etc. Could it be that paying top money for any position on D hampers success? I would imagine that paying top money to some positions would be a benefit.

One thing I will say about DT that I heard, and agree a little with:

A good DT can be more disruptive than a good DE in that you can run away form a good DE but a good DT is right up the gut bringing it all the time. I think the blind side of the RDE is there on every passing play, so that is big, but I get the overall point on about the DT.
Reality Fan
Ok...lets take a little look at the top defenses and their highest paid players going into next year.

1. Seattle
Sherman CB 14 million
Wagner ILB 10.7
Thomas S 10.0

2. Bengals
Atkins DT 10.6
Dunlap DE 7.8
Maualuga LB 5.0

3. KC
Houston OLB 16.8
Bailey DE 6.2
Hali OLB 6.0

4. Broncos
Ware OLB 10.0
Talib CB 9.5
Wolfe DE 9.1

5. Vikes
Griffen DE 8.5
Joseph DT 6.2
Robison DE 5.6

6. Panthers
Johnson DE 12.6
Kuechly ILB 12.3
Davis OLB 9.0

7. Texans
Watt DE 16.6
Cushing ILB 8.7
Jackson CB 8.5

8. Arizona
Peterson CB 14.0
Campbell DE 11.0
Washington ILB 8.0

9. Jets
Revis CB 14.0
Harris ILB 7.1
Skrine CB 6.2

10. Pats
McCourty S 9.5
Sheard DE 5.5
Ninkovich DE 3.5

Mikey will be getting my bill for the research
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 27 2016, 01:36 PM) *
Taxes to do, so short on time, but I wonder what the rankings are for D's that pay top (three or five) money for CB's, S's, ILB, OLB, DE's etc. Could it be that paying top money for any position on D hampers success? I would imagine that paying top money to some positions would be a benefit.

One thing I will say about DT that I heard, and agree a little with:

A good DT can be more disruptive than a good DE in that you can run away form a good DE but a good DT is right up the gut bringing it all the time. I think the blind side of the RDE is there on every passing play, so that is big, but I get the overall point on about the DT.


Where did you hear that?
The Franchise
I normally have to check myself when agreeing with McNabbulous, but yeah, Cox deserves all that dough. He's too important on the field, worth every penny.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Feb 27 2016, 02:52 PM) *
Where did you hear that?



I don't remember to be honest. Probably one of my usual listens, R. Diddy, 94 crew, 97.5 crew, Philly Sports talk or Quick Slants. I'm guessing either Diddy, Reese or B. Brooks but don't remember for sure. It was within the last week.
nephillymike
The thing is, if you do not want to pay that money, you let him play for the 7.6M this year and maybe franchise him next year and see where the dust settles after that. It could be that newer DT deals are for less to bring the market down a little.

FWIW, the franchise tag for DT is $13.7M this year, much more "reasonable then the Suh and Darius deals.

That's what I'd do.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 27 2016, 04:21 PM) *
The thing is, if you do not want to pay that money, you let him play for the 7.6M this year and maybe franchise him next year and see where the dust settles after that. It could be that newer DT deals are for less to bring the market down a little.

FWIW, the franchise tag for DT is $13.7M this year, much more "reasonable then the Suh and Darius deals.

That's what I'd do.



Its ok...you can just say you agree with what I said about 2 or 3 posts ago....you keep him for 2 years at a more reasonable number and have 2 years to find the next one...


Reality Fan
QUOTE (The Franchise @ Feb 27 2016, 03:44 PM) *
I normally have to check myself when agreeing with McNabbulous, but yeah, Cox deserves all that dough. He's too important on the field, worth every penny.


No one is saying he is not a great player......but he is pricing himself out of good sense....it is simply plain as day.....I don't want a great DT on a defense that ranks 20th. The money is better spent elsewhere...

The numbers don't lie....DT is not the spot where you pay crazy money...it doesn't work
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Feb 27 2016, 06:12 PM) *
Its ok...you can just say you agree with what I said about 2 or 3 posts ago....you keep him for 2 years at a more reasonable number and have 2 years to find the next one...



Sorry missed that. I see it above.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 27 2016, 08:29 PM) *
Sorry missed that. I see it above.


just trying to save you time during tax season by doing your football thinking for you........(you might consider letting me do it all year since I make a hell of a lot more sense than you... devil03.gif )

By the way...found a bar near me that has the Edmund Fitzgerald on tap all year round
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Feb 28 2016, 08:31 AM) *
just trying to save you time during tax season by doing your football thinking for you........(you might consider letting me do it all year since I make a hell of a lot more sense than you... devil03.gif )

By the way...found a bar near me that has the Edmund Fitzgerald on tap all year round



Really? That is rare.

But does it have the cheap stuff you drink on tap??
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 28 2016, 09:11 AM) *
Really? That is rare.

But does it have the cheap stuff you drink on tap??



It is loaded with craft brews on tap.....

http://taps378.com/

It is not far from the Eagles training camp venue of old.........but it also has Miller Lite on tap as well.... wacko.gif

The downside is it used to be a place called Starters and became famous for the woman that was there to watch a pay per view wrestling event (that says a lot) and went into the bathroom, gave birth and strangled the baby and put it in the toilet tank and then came out, sat down and finished her meal and left.....I can't make this shit up.....

Needless to say, Starters went out of business.....
Zero
$2 Yuengling ain't bad and some other nice choices. When you buying? biggrin.gif
Reality Fan
QUOTE (Zero @ Feb 28 2016, 02:23 PM) *
$2 Yuengling ain't bad and some other nice choices. When you buying? biggrin.gif


I will buy the first round or 2.....any time you guys want to venture up.....it is about 2 miles from my house.
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