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nephillymike
is draft day manuevering up and mostly down the board.

As this article shows, there is a huge overvaluation in the draft day chart currently used in the NFL.

We should always trade down as the relative value is much higher based on actual career stats.

Warning - confusing numbers, don't read if sober!!

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com...fl-draft-picks/

To put it in perspective, in Z's thread we said that based on the trade chart, we would be the 52nd pick to compensate for dropping from #13 to #22. Signifying a huge drop in talent between #13 and 22.

However, based on historical performance, that move should only net us the 191st pick, bottom of 6th round.

We get almost a 140 pick premium to do the deal, which is over a four round premium.


Trade down Howie, trade down!!
Zero
OK, deuce bug. I just had 2 River Horse Baltic Porters aged in Peruvian Rum Barrels ... 11% ABV, 1 pt each, let me see if I get this. I'd recommend the beer but they were small batch, limited edition. Sorry.

13=1150, 33=760, 54@360 on the DVC, 33+54=1120. The CAVOA has 13=276.8 and 22 at 232.1, 54@141.5, 22+54=508.9. So, by DVC the trade would benefit HOU by +30 and by CAVOA it would benefit PHL by 232.1. 13 CAVOA is about 24% of DVC, 22 CAVOA is about 30.5% of DVC, 54 CAVOA is roughly 39% of DVC and the trade balance is accelerated by 88% CAVOA in favor of PHL. Or, if we look at it apples to apples, the trade in DVC favors HOU by somewhere around 27% making the difference between DVC and CAVOA a whopping 115%.

WTF?? You said I could figure it out if I wasn't sober. laugh.gif
Joegrane
Thanks for the link; however, they changed their address.
http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2011/11/h...fl-draft-picks/

This is an interesting topic.

Don't you think the situation depends somewhat on where the team is in the process of (re)building and their market size?

If you are a small market team in the bottom third of the standings--Cleveland, Jax--it seems to make sense to trade down. That team is likely going to lose FAs to playoff contenders and so will have holes to fill. The small market team has to be very careful about expenditures.

So the small market team gets two starting-caliber players, maybe more for the one pick.

If you are a playoff team with reasonable cap situation, you are likely to want fewer players but ones that can contribute right away. It makes sense to trade up, but it will cost you over the long term.

Also consider the effect of a Pro Bowl caliber player on the opposition. If you have an elite-caliber receiver the opposition has to double-team. Other less capable receivers benefit from this--think Cooper when playing with DJax.

The same is true for an elite pass rusher.

The other extreme is when a team has some great players but some huge holes for the opposition to exploit. For example, one of the Eagles teams during the McNabb-Reid era was expected to make a deep run. However, they lost MLB J Trotter in free agency. That left a big hole in the D that opponents exploited all year. It might have cost them advancement in the playoffs.

So it seems to me that teams need a few ProBowl "playmakers" and a team without any huge holes.

I think the Eagles are in the middle. They have quite a few positions of either immediate need or need in the next two years-- OG, OT, RB, S, QB, WR, maybe a LB who fits the new system.

If they sign Bradford to a multi-year deal, most of their needs will be for positions that can be filled adequately in rounds 2 through 4.

Therefore I agree with Mike and have been saying that for many weeks. For example, trade down, pick the future R OT of the future, start him this year at OG and pick up a 2nd or 3rd round pick to use for one of the other needs. You don't need to use #13 to get a good R OT.

In a couple of years, they might be solid except for a need for a couple extra playmakers. They might trade up to draft a WR or lock down CB.

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 20 2016, 04:28 PM) *
...
As this article shows, there is a huge overvaluation in the draft day chart currently used in the NFL.

We should always trade down as the relative value is much higher based on actual career stats.
...
To put it in perspective, in Z's thread we said that based on the trade chart, we would be the 52nd pick to compensate for dropping from #13 to #22. Signifying a huge drop in talent between #13 and 22.
...
We get almost a 140 pick premium to do the deal, which is over a four round premium.

Trade down Howie, trade down!!
nephillymike
QUOTE (Zero @ Feb 20 2016, 07:12 PM) *
OK, deuce bug. I just had 2 River Horse Baltic Porters aged in Peruvian Rum Barrels ... 11% ABV, 1 pt each, let me see if I get this. I'd recommend the beer but they were small batch, limited edition. Sorry.

13=1150, 33=760, 54@360 on the DVC, 33+54=1120. The CAVOA has 13=276.8 and 22 at 232.1, 54@141.5, 22+54=508.9. So, by DVC the trade would benefit HOU by +30 and by CAVOA it would benefit PHL by 232.1. 13 CAVOA is about 24% of DVC, 22 CAVOA is about 30.5% of DVC, 54 CAVOA is roughly 39% of DVC and the trade balance is accelerated by 88% CAVOA in favor of PHL. Or, if we look at it apples to apples, the trade in DVC favors HOU by somewhere around 27% making the difference between DVC and CAVOA a whopping 115%.

WTF?? You said I could figure it out if I wasn't sober. laugh.gif



You lost me!!

Send me a few Baltic Porters and maybe I'll see the light.

Speaking of Baltic Porters................ I had a Victory Baltic Porter a long while ago and liked it very much and I need to go get me another one. I never see it in the craft brew store, or any other Baltic porters for that matter. I'll be working off my two craft 12 packs and Christmas stock leftovers for a while, so probably won't be in the market for a month.

Zero
Had a Shock Top Honeycrisp Apple Wheat at Chickies the other night. Recommend you try it.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Zero @ Feb 21 2016, 11:32 AM) *
Had a Shock Top Honeycrisp Apple Wheat at Chickies the other night. Recommend you try it.



Which Chickies?

I was there last night. Had a Guiness and two Rogue Irish Ales

Also went to a craft bar nearby. The place had a craft brew list at least 75 beers including 20 on tap. I got a flight of four beers, Brawler, Allagash White, some chocolate stout and and imperial stout I forget the breweries for the last two.

Zero
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 21 2016, 11:38 AM) *
Which Chickies?

I was there last night. Had a Guiness and two Rogue Irish Ales

Also went to a craft bar nearby. The place had a craft brew list at least 75 beers including 20 on tap. I got a flight of four beers, Brawler, Allagash White, some chocolate stout and and imperial stout I forget the breweries for the last two.

Bordentown. First time in that one.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Zero @ Feb 21 2016, 02:44 PM) *
Bordentown. First time in that one.



Is the Bordentown one closer to Yardley than the NE Philly one?
Zero
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 21 2016, 06:12 PM) *
Is the Bordentown one closer to Yardley than the NE Philly one?

A little. We should hook up in NE some time.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Zero @ Feb 21 2016, 08:34 PM) *
A little. We should hook up in NE some time.


Sounds like a plan.
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