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nephillymike
It's interesting that Curry's deal is not listed yet.

Here are the published parameters:

47.25M, 5 yrs, 23M guaranteed, including a 10M signing bonus.

As a fifth year player, his salary has to be at least 0.76M.

After doing this little exercise, his numbers get really unreasonable in a hurry.

Here's a stab at it:


Yr..........SB.............Sal...........Cap.......Cash.........Guar
2016.....2.0M........3.0M..........5.0M.....13.0M.....13.0M
2017.....2.0M........6.0M..........8.0M.......6.0M......6.0M
2018.....2.0M........8.0M.........10.0M......8.0M......4.0M
2019.....2.0M.......10.0M........12.0M.....10.0M.......-0-
2020.....2.0M.......11.25M......13.25M...11.25M.....-0-

So they basically guarantee his 10M SB and his first 2 1/2 years of salary.

If wanted to backload it even further, , you could reduce his salary to $1M this year and put the other $2M in '17-'18. That would bring this year's cap charge down to $3M.

My best guess is a $5M cap hit this year, 1M more than I expected, which taken with the Celek, Ertz and Johnson #'s that were published, puts us millions of cap behind where I'd thought we'd be even though I expected all of them to be resigned.

Does this contract seem reasonable to anyone? Even if you just figure on three years of the deal, we're paying $9M per for a backup? Even Ertz, as a TE who doesn't play most of the snaps, got paid like top starter.

So I had us having a problem getting enough cap space for Bradford and what we've done so far makes it more so:

I had Curry costing $4M in cap. Looks like it would be $5M = $1M worse cap
I had us restructuring Celek to save $2M, instead, no cap savings = $2M worse cap
I had the Johnson extension freeing up 2.1M, instead it costs $2M more = 4.1M worse than expected
I had the Ertz extension costing 2.3M in extra cap, it only costs us $1.5M = 0.8M better than expected.

The net effect of these moves on this year's cap vs what I estimated is $6.3M less cap room than expected. And even with where I thought we would be, signing Bradford would b really tough unless some drastic cuts (Peters)

Next up is Cox. He is on the books for 7.7M of cap and I estimated his deal to be $4.5 cap this year, for a savings of 3.2M over the current situation. Looking at Curry's deal, it is harder to imagine such a cap friendly deal for Cox as I expected. The 3.2M savings may be wishful thinking. We'll see.
Reality Fan
Before you announce the sky is falling let them get the details out....K?....
Zero
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 5 2016, 09:11 PM) *
The net effect of these moves on this year's cap vs what I estimated is $6.3M less cap room than expected. And even with where I thought we would be, signing Bradford would b really tough unless some drastic cuts (Peters)

We'll see.

I would never question Mikey Numbers, I like my knees aching not broken. cool.gif That said, it sure sounds like you think Howie Machiavelli doesn't know numbers like Mikey knows numbers.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Zero @ Feb 5 2016, 09:40 PM) *
I would never question Mikey Numbers, I like my knees aching not broken. cool.gif That said, it sure sounds like you think Howie Machiavelli doesn't know numbers like Mikey knows numbers.



No not at all.

I'm sure he knows them better than I.

I think what he may know that Mikey Numbers doesn't is one or some of the following:

1. Jason Peters is getting cut (I can't see this)
2. They will not sign any FA WR and/or OG as they won't have the cap room. (I can see this unfortunately)
3. They've already decided that they are out of the Bradford sweepstakes (I can see this a little)
4. They've already decided not to resign Thurmond and Carroll (may be greater than 50-50)
5. They will go with either FA Daniels, and cut Sanchez and draft a youngin', or keep Sanchez and do the same (very possible)
6. Lurie has agreed to forego the Lurie cap limits and spend at almost 100% of the cap (surely you can't be serious? I am and please don't call me Shirley!)
7. They've already decided that this isn't the year and will reboot and trim the veterans for more youth (possible)

Something's gotta give because the numbers don't add up, and that is true even if Curry's deal is severely back loaded for a $3M cap hit.

nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Feb 5 2016, 09:25 PM) *
Before you announce the sky is falling let them get the details out....K?....



Really RF, all we're missing is Curry's deal year one cap hit.

The other deals are inked and recorded.

Best case, they back load it for a $3M year one hit.
Worst case, more even structuring with a $6M year one cap hit.

Even at best, we're 4.3M behind schedule with the Mega Cox deal looming.

Sky's not falling.

Not at all.

These realities are good news for you.

Wings and Beer future contracts just appreciated today!!! sad.gif

However, Eagle future wins bets may have taken a hit.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 5 2016, 10:39 PM) *
Really RF, all we're missing is Curry's deal year one cap hit.

The other deals are inked and recorded.

Best case, they back load it for a $3M year one hit.
Worst case, more even structuring with a $6M year one cap hit.

Even at best, we're 4.3M behind schedule with the Mega Cox deal looming.

Sky's not falling.

Not at all.

These realities are good news for you.

Wings and Beer future contracts just appreciated today!!! sad.gif

However, Eagle future wins bets may have taken a hit.



I am hearing Bradford is close for 14 million per/4 years/30 guar......hahahahaha
Rick
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Feb 5 2016, 09:25 PM) *
Before you announce the sky is falling let them get the details out....K?....

Exactly. People keep freaking out about the cap. The people in charge making these decisions know WAY more about the cap than anyone around here.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 5 2016, 10:39 PM) *
Really RF, all we're missing is Curry's deal year one cap hit.

The other deals are inked and recorded.

Best case, they back load it for a $3M year one hit.
Worst case, more even structuring with a $6M year one cap hit.

Even at best, we're 4.3M behind schedule with the Mega Cox deal looming.

Sky's not falling.

Not at all.

These realities are good news for you.

Wings and Beer future contracts just appreciated today!!! sad.gif

However, Eagle future wins bets may have taken a hit.


Curry's 2016 Cap hit is 3 million.....

next question...

http://www.csnphilly.com/football-philadel...-cap-hit-eagles
Joegrane
There are plenty of "next questions" but the big one is Bradford. That one might be holding up the Cox deal.

If Bradford is going to sign with the Eagles Howie might have to structure the Cox deal like Curry's-- with $ backloaded to free space for Sam.

It is a bit troubling that they've had to overpay for all of these players but I think it was a necessary evil. This stabilizes the Eagles as a playoff contender rather than repeat the mess that followed the firing of Buddy Ryan--the loss 4 Pro Bowl players.

I think this situation will keep them from being SB contenders due to cap limitations but at least they won't likely be a below average team very often in the next 5 years.



QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Feb 6 2016, 12:20 PM) *
Curry's 2016 Cap hit is 3 million.....

next question...

http://www.csnphilly.com/football-philadel...-cap-hit-eagles

Reality Fan
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Feb 6 2016, 03:55 PM) *
There are plenty of "next questions" but the big one is Bradford. That one might be holding up the Cox deal.

If Bradford is going to sign with the Eagles Howie might have to structure the Cox deal like Curry's-- with $ backloaded to free space for Sam.

It is a bit troubling that they've had to overpay for all of these players but I think it was a necessary evil. This stabilizes the Eagles as a playoff contender rather than repeat the mess that followed the firing of Buddy Ryan--the loss 4 Pro Bowl players.

I think this situation will keep them from being SB contenders due to cap limitations but at least they won't likely be a below average team very often in the next 5 years.


They have not overpaid for these players...they have underpaid....an opinion stated by Howie's nemesis/mentor Joe Banner.....the deals signed by Ertz, Johnson and Curry will pale in comparison to their counterparts going forward...Ertz, in particular, was said to have left a lot of money on the table.

There are several articles out know stating the Eagles are NOT in bad cap territory, even after all of these deals....I think we can leave the cap concerns in the past. If they do not sign Bradford it won't be about money alone, it will be that they don't think he is worth that much of an investment. They have the money.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Feb 6 2016, 12:20 PM) *
Curry's 2016 Cap hit is 3 million.....

next question...

http://www.csnphilly.com/football-philadel...-cap-hit-eagles



Did you miss the point where I stated that they could severely backload it and get a cap hit of $3M?

And that even with that, we're still 4.5M behind a reasonable outlook?

Whether or not they're in cap trouble depends on what you would like them to do.

If you want the list I shared, then we are in cap trouble. If you're willing to forego a few of those, then no we are not.
nephillymike
Here are where these resigned players rank in Guaranteed $ and Avg$/Yr

Curry - 8th in guaranteed money, 10th in avg/yr of DE's
Ertz - 3rd in guaranteed money, 5th in avg$/yr of TE's
Johnson - 1st in guaranteed $ and 1st in Avg$/yr of RT's, 2nd and 4th among all OT's

I know you are trying to pay for future performance, but past performance paves the way.

Does anyone think these guys past or future puts them in these ranks?

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/tackle/
Eagle2720
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 6 2016, 08:20 PM) *
Here are where these resigned players rank in Guaranteed $ and Avg$/Yr

Curry - 8th in guaranteed money, 10th in avg/yr of DE's
Ertz - 3rd in guaranteed money, 5th in avg$/yr of TE's
Johnson - 1st in guaranteed $ and 1st in Avg$/yr of RT's, 2nd and 4th among all OT's

I know you are trying to pay for future performance, but past performance paves the way.

Does anyone think these guys past or future puts them in these ranks?

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/tackle/


Based solely on past, then no with the exception of Johnson. Curry could have been the product of not getting much playing time, and Ertz is projected to take the "next step" for the past few years but has played like a good TE, definitely above average. Johnson has been good for us ever since he came here and I don't see that changing, whether he's at LT or RT.
Joegrane
This post by NEPhillyMike makes my point.

I'm not bitterly complaining about the signings. I think they had to do them given the state of the team. I also think those particular players are worth betting on--unlike a certain $8mil Cowgirl RB with more miles on his wheels than a Mexican drug lord.

QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Feb 6 2016, 05:22 PM) *
They have not overpaid for these players...they have underpaid....an opinion stated by Howie's nemesis/mentor Joe Banner.....the deals signed by Ertz, Johnson and Curry will pale in comparison to their counterparts going forward...Ertz, in particular, was said to have left a lot of money on the table.

There are several articles out know stating the Eagles are NOT in bad cap territory, even after all of these deals....I think we can leave the cap concerns in the past. If they do not sign Bradford it won't be about money alone, it will be that they don't think he is worth that much of an investment. They have the money.

Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 6 2016, 08:20 PM) *
Here are where these resigned players rank in Guaranteed $ and Avg$/Yr

Curry - 8th in guaranteed money, 10th in avg/yr of DE's
Ertz - 3rd in guaranteed money, 5th in avg$/yr of TE's
Johnson - 1st in guaranteed $ and 1st in Avg$/yr of RT's, 2nd and 4th among all OT's

I know you are trying to pay for future performance, but past performance paves the way.

Does anyone think these guys past or future puts them in these ranks?

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/tackle/



Talk to me 1 year into these contracts and tell me where they rank...that is the Banner way
Joegrane
Yes I recall the somewhat bad feelings with some Eagles players about their deals towads the end of the contract. If I recall correctly CB Sh Brown was one.

Again, I'm not bitterly complaining about those contracts. Life involves risks. I think it was reasonable to roll the dice with those players.

QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Feb 7 2016, 01:36 AM) *
Talk to me 1 year into these contracts and tell me where they rank...that is the Banner way

nephillymike
Here it is, really back loaded. Still not on spotrac yet. Strange.

http://overthecap.com/player/vinny-curry/786
nephillymike
Schwartz was on radio the other day and said Graham and Barwin are the two starting DE's.

Apparently Barwin did a bunch of DE work earlier in his career.

That's good that we have a place to put him. A good talent and a great guy!!

But it begs the question, how well does Curry have to do to earn his contract as a #3 DE? I would think even in this everyone rests mentality, the #3 DE sees the field less than 50% of the plays.
Joegrane
I'm shocked to hear that Barwin will start ahead of Curry. Do you think Graham will move to DT on some obvious passing downs? Didn't he do a little of that early in his career?

Maybe that means they'll keep all of the LBs from last year.

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 14 2016, 12:36 PM) *
Schwartz was on radio the other day and said Graham and Barwin are the two starting DE's.

Apparently Barwin did a bunch of DE work earlier in his career.

That's good that we have a place to put him. A good talent and a great guy!!

But it begs the question, how well does Curry have to do to earn his contract as a #3 DE? I would think even in this everyone rests mentality, the #3 DE sees the field less than 50% of the plays.

nephillymike
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Feb 14 2016, 08:02 PM) *
I'm shocked to hear that Barwin will start ahead of Curry. Do you think Graham will move to DT on some obvious passing downs? Didn't he do a little of that early in his career?

Maybe that means they'll keep all of the LBs from last year.



I don't remember Graham doing DT.

It is a comforting feeling to know we have an established good DC. It's been a while since we've had one.

One concern for this year's draft is are we going to have to use picks to get rid of the 3-4 guys and replace them with 4-3 guys? I'm talking the depth guys but also the fringe starters. How about the CB's.? Are they style fits?

We'll see.

Never a dull day.
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