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nephillymike
They say the cap next year is estimated to be $154M
We have 133.5M committed
Thus our starting point is 20.5M of cap room.

So first things first, we keep 10.5M, or roughly 7% in the till for old times sake because that's what we do, and that leaves us $10M of additional cap room to spend.

The figures below are net of dead money for cuts, or first year cap hits for new FA's or net cap impact for restructures.

A. The Cuts

Ryans +3.5M (sorry Mufassa, we don't have the luxury nor your style D)
Cooper +2.9M (good riddence)

Total Cut = +6.4M

B. The Restructures

Cox +3.3 (on the books for 7.7M, can do a new deal for 4.5M Yr1 cap hit)
Johnson +2.1 (on the books for 6.1M can do a new deal for 4.0M yr1 cap)
Ertz (2.3M) (on books for 1.7M, new deal will prob cost 4.0M Yr 1. cap)

Total Restructure = +3.1M

C. Resign our Own FA's (amounts listed are estimated Yr 1 cap hits)

V. Curry (4.0M)
Thurmond (3.0M)
Carroll (3.0M)
Biggers (0.75M)
Ajirotutu (0.75M) (Note I am not resigning Thornton, Tobin, T. Lewis or Molk)

FA Resigns = (11.5M)

D. Sign New FA's

Wide Receiver (1) - (4.0M) list of possibilities (Kearse, Sanu, Jeffrey)
Offensive Guard (1) - (4.0M) list of possibilities (Mathis, Boone, may be some others)

New FA Signings = ($8.0M)

So, at this point I my budget is:

Starting Cap Space = 10.0M
Cut of Ryans and Coop = +6.4M
Restructures of 3 players = +3.1M
Resign Existing FA's = (11.5M)
Sign FA WR and OG = (8.0M)
Net Cap Remaining To Spend = $0.00M !!

Problem is, I don't have Bradford on my team, or a replacement not named Sanchez. And I'm up against the Lurie Cap.

Here are a list of possible cuts and/or restructures, but I'm not crazy about them:

Cut Celek = +5.0M (may be able to restructure him for two year deal and save $2M, but may not make sense)
Cut Sanchez = +3.5M (not as high on him w/o Chip, but how much do we gain in cap vs Daniels, not much)
Cut Barwin =+3.2M (one of my favs but is there room for him in a 4-3? Can he get us something in a trade?)
Cut Alonzo = +0.9M (Schwartz was his DC before, maybe he can spark something here for .9M worth the shot?)

If we do all four above, we only save $12.6M, far below a Bradford Franchise or Transition Tag. And I really don't feel comfortable cutting Celek, so if we restructure, maybe we save $2M there, so we're talking being at 9.6M for the Bradford fund. I also assume any other backups system cuts will need to be replaced by similar cap hit guys for 4-3 types (Allen, Bair, Hart) so no net savings cutting any of them.

Now the elephant in the room is Peters. If we cut him, we save another $6.2M. However, he's the best OL on a weak line. I can't see him restructuring, as he has a real high opinion of himself, and based on his declining play, we cant extend him, it doesn't make football sense. I think we have to eat the bullet here and keep him around.

Here's the kicker: Even if we saved the 9.6M and cut Peters and get his 6.2M, we're at 15.8M STILL short of Bradford's franchise and transition tag numbers.

The take away is if we want Bradford, we will have to do all of the above (9.6M) option of restructure Celek, cutting Barwin, Alonzo and Sanchez AND need to sign him to a year one cap friendly deal that uses no more than $9M in cap.

Such a deal could be:

4 years, $72M total, 40M guaranteed, with a 20M SB

Year............Sal.............SB........Cap...........Cash
2016..........4M..............5M.......9M.............24M
2017.........16M.............5M......21M............16M
2018.........16M.............5M......21M............16M
2019.........16M.............5M......21M............16M
Total..........52M............20M.....72M............72M
The first two years salary and signing bonus fully guaranteed for a total of $40M guaranteed.

That's a tough nut. Even if you cut Sanchez, what will we have two inexperienced backups? Or if not, Daniels will likely wash Sanchez savings.

I am not willing to forego a WR and OG in FA. and don't want to not resign Thurmond, Carroll or Curry.

I'm interested to see what others are willing to do to keep Bradford. My numbers for cap hits for FA signings should be real close in the aggregate, and that is pushing more money to future years than is our style.

What say you amateur capologists and/or Bradford fans?

Sharpen your pencils, show your work!!

Assume my numbers are correct or close, what do you do?

Chip made some bad moves and we have big ticket items we can't cut for fear of making our cap situation worse.

Oh and as far as the draft, we have the following nine picks and judging by past, maybe we get a year one starter out of this bunch:

Our 1st
Our 3rd
DET 3rd ('15 draft day trade)
our 4th
our 5th
PIT 5th (Boykin)
Our 6th
Our 7th
ARI 7th (Barkley)

In order of preference assuming we keep who I say above:(WR, OG, QB, OT, OC, TE, DE, LB, CB)

Have at it!
Eagle2720
I like your FA signings of our guys, though I would rather get rid of Ajirotutu and keep Thorton but either is fine by me. I also agree we need to sign a FA WR and G, I would love Jeffrey but I feel like he's gonna cost a lot, and I don't really know which of the FA guards are good or worth some money.

Regarding the draft I feel like we should trade back, maybe late teens early 20s? And then take BPA, which I would hope is either WR or OT. All the mocks I've seen lately (still very early and there's still the combine) have a few tackles falling that far, like the Michigan and Ohio state guys, the only two that seem like top 10 in most that I've seen are Tunsil and the Notre Dame guy. I have seen Treadwell fall to the late teens in a few of them and think he would be great for us if there with the trade back, big #1 guy and then we can put JMatt back into slot where he produced well with Maclin.

QB is a big question mark though. If we don't sign Bradford and can trade or cut Sanchez and get Daniels for cheap then I'm all for it and then just draft a guy in round 3 or 4 to hopefully develop. Not many QBs worth putting serious time into outside of the top two rounds. None of them are sure fire 1st rounders for our 13th and it definitely hurts we don't have a 2nd either. Maybe spend the last 3 picks on QBs and pray we find our guy ( or someone that's even adequate lol)
Eyrie
CBA getting involved in the numbers (too many to look at today for clients' tax returns needed for the end of the week) but my approach would be

Cut
Cooper - very expensive for a #4 WR

Keep
Curry - part of a three man DE group with Graham and ????
Thornton - solid and inexpensive part of the DT group with Cox and Logan
Thurmond - starting S
Ajirotutu/Biggars - keep one or both as inexpensive but important STers

Restructure
Peters - talented but I'm concerned about his declining performance Let's convert some salary to pro-rata'd signing bonus.
Ryans - veteran leadership, and what other options does he have?

Extend
Johnson - our future LT?
Ertz - starting TE
Cox - our best defender

Free Agents
WR
G

Draft
OL - either a G or a T to play G and then replace Peters in a year or two
DE/SAM - depends on where Barwin is playing
WR - lower on my list because of the free agent
Then S, CB, C, LB in no particular order.

The Big Question
Bradford - I'd prefer him back but if the numbers won't add up then I like the idea of using the tag. I'd want a second this year and a conditional second/third next for him. That then means finding someone to fill in at QB and drafting a QB this year or next.
Zero
I'm leaving the board. I'm serious, if you don't officially change your handle to MikeyNumbers I'm gone ... adios, sayonara, ciao, bye bye, outa here, gone. It's a disgrace. wink.gif Nice work, MN.

I'd save $6 mil by not resigning Carroll and maybe Thurmond. Carroll's a back-up and serviceable starter and Thurmond's a luxury for a team that doesn't have a SB QB if there's no cap space.

Kelly may have made it so the Eagles can't afford to keep their best QB. No idea if it's possible, but a tag and trade of Bradford may be one way. I like him and would like him to be here but the cost may be too high, the cap too small and the window to contend too foggy to go that route. Texans could give up their #1 or SF their #2. Texans are close enough to take the risk, SF has the cap and Kelly knows the player. Not sure how Elway feels about Osweiler but they're in a similar position as Houston is. Denver's problem is the cap at $11,373,505 and a long list of FAs.

I'm hoping there's a QB available in the draft that the coaches believe can be groomed to be that SB QB. It doesn't matter if it's round 1 or 5, if they think he has the talent, start over with Daniel and teach the kid to play ... I'm thinking that's why they have all the QBs as coaches. Improving the OL through FA and the draft, and scheming to player strengths could allow the team to contend next year in a weak division.

Restructure Peters. His problem seems to have been mostly Kelly and he's said more than once that his loyalty is to Mr. Lurie. Restructure Celek, if Barwin doesn't fit Schwartz's system he has value in trade at savings of $6.15. Sanchez has value too, even a late pick and the savings would be $4.5 mil an extra mil over cut. No way I cut The Legend until he hits camp and see how the new coaches like him.

By your numbers that leaves the team with +$6 mil (Carroll and Thurmond) plus another potential +$10.65 mil (trade Sanchez and Barwin) ... +$16.65 mil to go for a FA QB and Thornton and maybe Thurmond, not counting savings from restructuring Peters and Celek.

The trades of Barwin and Sanchez would also yield us more ammo for the draft. Barwin's 29 but can still play and would be attractive to a contender as either a DE in a 4-3 or OLB in a 3-4. Sanchez could also be attractive to a contending team with cap space and a need for a solid back-up QB. Barwin = a 4th? Sanchez a 5th?

Rip it up, Mikey.
Joegrane
Why don't you guys think Barwin can play the SAM LB? One sports writer felt he would be a good one since he can cover TEs.

I assume they'll try to use one of the round 3 picks for a true MIKE LB. Aren't all of the other LBs not big enough for the MIKE in running downs?





nephillymike
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Jan 24 2016, 09:43 PM) *
Why don't you guys think Barwin can play the SAM LB? One sports writer felt he would be a good one since he can cover TEs.

I assume they'll try to use one of the round 3 picks for a true MIKE LB. Aren't all of the other LBs not big enough for the MIKE in running downs?



I was assuming since he's played 3-4 all of his time, he wouldn't be qualified as a 4-3 OLB.

But I really don't know.

I'd like to keep him.
nephillymike
Hey Z,

About the Peters restructure.

Check this out:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/jason-peters/

I didn't realize he is already signed through 2018!!

I think the extension rules would mean we'd have to sign him past that year to shuffle around salary into signing bonus money.

Are you willing to go into 2019 with his contract? I have to look up how it works with restructures (been a while), but lets say we do want to go into 2019, I think we may in all likelihood only be able to save approx 2.4M in cap, and that's assuming he wants nothing extra in guarantees to do the extension. Whatever extra he wants in SB, divide it by 4 and that will be the add on to this years cap.

Est. 2016 Cap after Restructure
New 2016 Sal = 1.75M (I went low)
Amort of New SB = 2.1M (6.487/4)
Unamort prior SB = 3.0M
Total New Cap = 6.85M
Old Cap = 9.24M
Savings = 2.4M

For every M of SB more he wants to go the extra year, add 1/4th of that to the total new cap and recalc the savings.

Ex, if he wants a Mill, than our Amort of New SB will be 2.6M and our saving s will decrease to 1.9M.

Given he's signed until 2018 and his hit is so big anyway, I don't think it makes sense.
Zero
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Jan 24 2016, 09:43 PM) *
Why don't you guys think Barwin can play the SAM LB? One sports writer felt he would be a good one since he can cover TEs.

I assume they'll try to use one of the round 3 picks for a true MIKE LB. Aren't all of the other LBs not big enough for the MIKE in running downs?

I think he can and suggested that a week or so ago. It's a matter of what value he provides to Schwartz vs what value he'd bring to the team with cap and pick. I love Barwin, but I'll leave it up to his new coach.
Eyrie
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Jan 25 2016, 02:43 AM) *
Why don't you guys think Barwin can play the SAM LB? One sports writer felt he would be a good one since he can cover TEs.

I assume they'll try to use one of the round 3 picks for a true MIKE LB. Aren't all of the other LBs not big enough for the MIKE in running downs?

I had assumed (and prefer) that he would be the SAM until Barwin himself suggested he may move to DE.
nephillymike
My quick and dirty estimate of Celek's new deal, assuming the $13M over 3 yrs with $6M guaranteed numbers are correct:
I would estimate his 2016 Cap hit to be 2.7M, down from 5.0M a savings of 2.3M, in cap dollars.

I like Celek, and I'm happy he's staying.

I guess that's 2.3M toward the Bradford fund.

They have a way to go to make franchising an option.
nephillymike
My quick and dirty estimate of Celek's new deal, assuming the $13M over 3 yrs with $6M guaranteed numbers are correct:
I would estimate his 2016 Cap hit to be 2.7M, down from 5.0M a savings of 2.3M, in cap dollars.

I like Celek, and I'm happy he's staying.

I guess that's 2.3M toward the Bradford fund.

They have a way to go to make franchising an option.
nephillymike
A lot of people on air stil talking about franchising Bradford.

Unless we get rid of the Lurie cushion, or decimate the roster and sit out FA, I don't see it.
nephillymike
A quick update of where we stand:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/cap/

Current Cap room left = 20.0M
Less approx 7% Stash = (11.0M) - Eagles have always stashed at least 7%, most years 10% of cap (10% = 4M more)
Remaining Net of Stash = 9.0M

Reported Yr 1 Cap Hit for Curry = 3.0M

Net Remaining After Curry = 6.0M If we do nothing, that's what we'll have for Bradford or FA's or whatever.

Cuts to clear Cap. Room = 6.4M (Ryans 3.5, Cooper 2.9M)

Restructure/ Extend Cox = +3.3M

Net After Cuts/Restructures = 15.7M

Resign our own players (6.5M) (Thurmond and Carroll 2.5M ea, Biggers and Ajirotutu .75 ea) I reduced T & C

Net to Sign Bradford and/or Outside FA's = 9.2M

Sign FA OG and FA WR = (7.0M) - reduced these from 4M ea. to 3.5M each

Net remaining for Bradford or anyone else = 2.2M

Other cuts available Sanchez 3.5, Barwin 3.1 Alonso 0.9M to free up space. If cut Sanchez, need to put aside B/U QB $

Basically, looks like we would need to do three of these six to be able to long term Bradford, five of these six to be able to franchise him:

Not resign Thurmond
Not Resign Carroll
Not get FA OG
Not get FA WR
Cut Sanchez
Cut Barwin

Do you do them?

Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 7 2016, 02:23 PM) *
Basically, looks like we would need to do three of these six to be able to long term Bradford, five of these six to be able to franchise him:

Not resign Thurmond
Not Resign Carroll
Not get FA OG
Not get FA WR
Cut Sanchez
Cut Barwin

Do you do them?


I can see them not resigning Carroll...Rowe stays outside
Not signing a FA WR...there are none that are available and a big upgrade sadly
They cut Sanchez
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Feb 7 2016, 11:12 PM) *
I can see them not resigning Carroll...Rowe stays outside
Not signing a FA WR...there are none that are available and a big upgrade sadly
They cut Sanchez



2.5 Carroll + 3.5 FAWR +3.5 Sanchez +2.2 left above = 11.7M.

Franchise is out of the question, not enough cap.

Can we get a long term deal done and some backup QB money? Seems a little short IMO.

A decent backup will cost $3M, I would think. That leaves 8.7M for Bradford's cap hit if you so desire.

With a SB of $20M over four years, $5M of SB amort, plus only 3.5M salary would work.

For my 72-4-40, that leaves approx 48.5M of salary in years 2-4, approx $16M per and with SB amort of $5M per, we're talking about $21M cap per year in years 2-4. Even if you drop it to your range of 60-4-30 with 10 SB, then your talking $8M still year 1 and a cap hit of approx 13M + 5M or $18M in years 2-4. AND. were giving up a FA WR and a starting CB.

If they could do your $60M, 4 yrs, 30M guaranteed incl a $10M SB, I'm guessing you'd still do it, right?

Joegrane
If they sign Bradford....

I don't want to lose Barwin--$3mil cap savings--especially if D Ryans is cut. Barwin does too many things well. He is too much fun for Schwartz because he can do a solid job in coverage and also blitz effectively. Isn't he physically ideal for the SAM LB role? He also seems to have some leadership ability.

Sanchez is gone. 3.5mil

I wish they could keep D Ryans--$3.5mil-- to train a rookie Mike LB but that might not be in the budget. Who knows what Ryans has left in the tank.

Does anyone other than Ryans physically fit the role of a Mike LB? If not, try to trade Alonso-$1mil. Draft a true Mike, maybe with one of the 3rd round picks.

I assume Thurmond will be replaced by a true strong safety. The question is do they think they can convince Rowe that he is the SS. He surely would be a good one.

If Rowe is going to be SS then Carrol would be the outside CB, but that would cost them a few mil. Shepherd is coming back from IR to compete for slot CB.

Chris Maragos could be a cap casualty--1.5mil. E Reynolds was getting some of Maragos' PT at the end of the year.

SS J Couplin is signed for this year @.6mil

While I'd love to see a veteran OG and a #2 caliber WR to replace Coop--$3mil-- I could understand if the cap space is not available. It is still hard to imagine that they would not have one veteran WR.

I assume they won't be able to afford C Thornton even though he is not very expensive.

K Barner and T Hart will be sacrificial Ducks--$1 mil, however they'll need a true FB.

This site has the cap space at $18.5mil. The recent player extensions seem to be included.
http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/philadelphia-eagles/

The loss of Sanchez, Ryans, Alonso, Coop, Maragos, Barner and Hart would free up $13.5mil

Additional costs: Bradford $16mil, Cox's extension +$3mil(?) and rookie draft picks +$6mil(?) = $25mil
Note: this site says the real cost of rookies is less than the theoretical $6mil price tag but I can't say I read it carefully enough to understand why.
http://overthecap.com/explaining-the-nfls-rookie-salary-cap/

$18.5mil + $13.5mil - $25mil = $7mil. cap space

That would seem to leave room for some depth--E J Biggers CB, Tobin OG, Ajirotutu WR.

If the site above is correct about the cost of rookies, then there is enough left for a FA O Guard, maybe a veteran #4 WR and a few mil breathing room.

That's my best guess.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 8 2016, 12:10 AM) *
2.5 Carroll + 3.5 FAWR +3.5 Sanchez +2.2 left above = 11.7M.

Franchise is out of the question, not enough cap.

Can we get a long term deal done and some backup QB money? Seems a little short IMO.

A decent backup will cost $3M, I would think. That leaves 8.7M for Bradford's cap hit if you so desire.

With a SB of $20M over four years, $5M of SB amort, plus only 3.5M salary would work.

For my 72-4-40, that leaves approx 48.5M of salary in years 2-4, approx $16M per and with SB amort of $5M per, we're talking about $21M cap per year in years 2-4. Even if you drop it to your range of 60-4-30 with 10 SB, then your talking $8M still year 1 and a cap hit of approx 13M + 5M or $18M in years 2-4. AND. were giving up a FA WR and a starting CB.

If they could do your $60M, 4 yrs, 30M guaranteed incl a $10M SB, I'm guessing you'd still do it, right?



I think it is fruitless to play the what ifs here because the market place for Bradford is such an unknown...right now, with all the little rumors circulating it appears that it is going to a depressed market so he will likely have to settle for a reasonable short term deal...that could be bad for the Eagles.

But until they start shavin gguys and their salaries the remaining cap space is a jumbled mass of conjecture.
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