Help - Search - Members - Calendar
Full Version: Jody Mac on Sam Bradford
Eagles Forum > Philadelphia Eagles Message Board > Philadelphia Eagles or Football Related Discussion
Reality Fan
I caught some of Jody Mac filling in on WIP yesterday and he said he expects Bradford to get in the $15-16 million dollar range...
nd9kel
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Jan 22 2016, 08:32 AM) *
I caught some of Jody Mac filling in on WIP yesterday and he said he expects Bradford to get in the $15-16 million dollar range...


Should the Eagles keep him at that price?
Joegrane
When you look at the cap hits for QBs in '16 Jody makes sense--as usual.
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/quarterback/

I could see a team overpaying and giving him 16-18 mil in a bidding war.

Will someone give him more than three years considering his health history and spotty record?

Guys with 17-18 mil cap hits include Wilson, Palmer, A Smith, Cutler
Those in the 15-16 range are Luck Kaepernick, Griffin, and amazingly Brady.
Dalton is at 13mil. Has Bradford proven to be better than Dalton?

Texans are one of three playoff teams with $25+mil in cap space and they have no high priced FAs to resign. They have the cap space to overpay. They are the only team of the three that needs a QB. Check out the paragraph on them.
http://www.spotrac.com/research/nfl/nfl-20...r-rankings-562/


QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Jan 22 2016, 09:32 AM) *
I caught some of Jody Mac filling in on WIP yesterday and he said he expects Bradford to get in the $15-16 million dollar range...
Rick
It's very difficult to compare what players are currently making vs. what someone signing a contract may be worth. You have to look at the total picture, not just the money. It is a sellers' market today. Bradford will most-likely get more than he would have (in the same situation) a few years back when it was more of a buyers' market.

His worth is determined by the market and its climate at the time he's signing a contract. Currently, Bradford is by-far the best available QB (assuming Cousins staying in Washington is a done deal).
Phits
They also use current market price and don't/won't necessarily inflate it based on the current climate. The agent needs to be able to sell the GM/owner/HC on Bradford's market value compared to QB's of similar talent and their contract. The problem for Bradford is that after 6 years a team has to bank on the notion that he will develop into the QB that is/was advertised vs what he has accomplished to date. What makes the situation irregular is that SB made it through his rookie contract, which is/was based on potential and is looking for a second contract based on the same premise.


QUOTE (Rick @ Jan 22 2016, 01:14 PM) *
It's very difficult to compare what players are currently making vs. what someone signing a contract may be worth. You have to look at the total picture, not just the money. It is a sellers' market today. Bradford will most-likely get more than he would have (in the same situation) a few years back when it was more of a buyers' market.

His worth is determined by the market and its climate at the time he's signing a contract. Currently, Bradford is by-far the best available QB (assuming Cousins staying in Washington is a done deal).

Reality Fan
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Jan 22 2016, 01:02 PM) *
When you look at the cap hits for QBs in '16 Jody makes sense--as usual.
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/quarterback/

I could see a team overpaying and giving him 16-18 mil in a bidding war.

Will someone give him more than three years considering his health history and spotty record?

Guys with 17-18 mil cap hits include Wilson, Palmer, A Smith, Cutler
Those in the 15-16 range are Luck Kaepernick, Griffin, and amazingly Brady.
Dalton is at 13mil. Has Bradford proven to be better than Dalton?

Texans are one of three playoff teams with $25+mil in cap space and they have no high priced FAs to resign. They have the cap space to overpay. They are the only team of the three that needs a QB. Check out the paragraph on them.
http://www.spotrac.com/research/nfl/nfl-20...r-rankings-562/


I agree that they are the only likely suitor but they have 7 current starters that are FAs....Their situation, cap wise, is not nearly as superior to the Eagles as you portray....The Eagles have a great chance to extend several players to open up significant cap room and to cut some dead wood to free up even more....

Here is a great breakdown of the Texans cap
http://texanscap.com/2016/01/04/2016-salary-cap-preview/

The Texans can cut Foster to gain a big chunk but the Eagles will cut or restructure Peters, extend Johnson and cut Cooper and restructure Celek...that is a ton of cap room
Rick
QUOTE (Phits @ Jan 22 2016, 01:33 PM) *
They also use current market price and don't/won't necessarily inflate it based on the current climate. The agent needs to be able to sell the GM/owner/HC on Bradford's market value compared to QB's of similar talent and their contract. The problem for Bradford is that after 6 years a team has to bank on the notion that he will develop into the QB that is/was advertised vs what he has accomplished to date. What makes the situation irregular is that SB made it through his rookie contract, which is/was based on potential and is looking for a second contract based on the same premise.

Here's a good read on why the numbers being thrown about regarding Bradford totally make sense.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (Rick @ Jan 22 2016, 03:55 PM) *
Here's a good read on why the numbers being thrown about regarding Bradford totally make sense.


The writer makes a great point that if he wanted a short term extension before the season than the starting point is a valid one...but he errs when he treats this year like last year.....it is not a sellers market for a guy with Bradford's history...and I like Bradford....but the buyers are not plentiful.....now if the Eagles are looking to do another short term contract he might make some sense but that is not the case.....and he does not make that differentiation. The Eagles really hold the cards here and they impact his ability to negotiate with other teams....

I will wager you that he gets nowhere near 20 million a year.....as I said...my guess is 15-16......there is just not a team out there in a position to take that risk whether it is financial or fan wise....
Rick
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Jan 22 2016, 04:08 PM) *
The writer makes a great point that if he wanted a short term extension before the season than the starting point is a valid one...but he errs when he treats this year like last year.....it is not a sellers market for a guy with Bradford's history...and I like Bradford....but the buyers are not plentiful.....now if the Eagles are looking to do another short term contract he might make some sense but that is not the case.....and he does not make that differentiation. The Eagles really hold the cards here and they impact his ability to negotiate with other teams....

I will wager you that he gets nowhere near 20 million a year.....as I said...my guess is 15-16......there is just not a team out there in a position to take that risk whether it is financial or fan wise....

I don't disagree he probably won't get $20 mil a year but it's still a sellers' market--even for Bradford. It's a supply/demand thing. There is very little supply of quality QBs out there right now and enough of a demand that he'll command more than he may normally command.

Now, I doubt anyone will give him a long-term contract due to his history. But I can see him getting 3 years at $15 mil/year for sure.

The more I look at it, the more I hope they keep Bradford until either he proves himself to be as good as the last part of the season showed or until they can draft/develop a QB.
D Rock
Where is the demand?

Beyond us and Houston, who else is looking? Buffalo? No. NYJets? (maybe but unlikely).

Even the bad teams have young QBs who need to see the field before any decisions can be made. Oakland, Jax, TB, Tenn.

I can only really see cases being made for him in SF, Denver, and Houston. That's not a great deal of "demand" for what he's supplying.
Joegrane
We are going to have to agree to disagree on the Texans vs Eagles cap situation. After reading the article you suggested it says the Texans have even more space available than I previously wrote.

They discuss WR Hopkins but that is just an extension. He is signed for two more years.

None of their FAs had more than a $2mil cap hit in 2015
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/houston-texans/

As you said they may release high priced RB Foster.

They would presumably cut a QB after signing Bradford.

They have the cap space to overpay, and as a playoff team, have incentive to do so.

I previously listed the situation with the eagles cap--link below. I don't see the $ to sign even most of their FAs plus Bradford @ $18mil.
http://www.wingheads.com/index.php?showtop...rt=#entry281501

The birds have around $16mil in cap space.

Cutting Sanchez, Celek, Alonso, Coop, Maragos and D Kelly saves less than $15mil because they'll have to be replaced by less expensive players.

Then they still have other FAs to replace: Curry, Thornton, N Carrol, W Thurmond, a few backups and their draft picks.

I suppose there is some cap space from 2015 they can carry over to 2016 but I don't know what it is.

Remember the player's cap hit is not the same as the amount the team would save by cutting the player. There is dead money as listed below. Players are not necessarily going to agree to give up $ as we saw last year on the O Line and DE. I imagine a player's pride is involved and a greedy agent is probably whispering in the player's ear. How freakin crazy is Matthis' agent?
http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/philadelphia-eagles/

Is the Eagles cap situation so bad that they can't realistically even use the non-exclusive franchise tag on Bradford as leverage to get some compensation back from the other team? Will the other team really believe that the Eagles would be willing to clear the needed cap space?

This in itself might be reason for Laurie to boot Chip Kelly's ass out the door. What was he thinking when he signed a former Cowgirl to an $8mil contract when he could have settled for Matthews, Sproles, Polk and a Duck for probably $6mil less? How much more did Murray do than Polk would have done. In addition Polk is a good special teamer.

I'm shocked that Howie was not able to exert enough influence on Laurie on this issue. You know Howie understood the cap implications.

QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Jan 22 2016, 02:25 PM) *
I agree that they are the only likely suitor but they have 7 current starters that are FAs....Their situation, cap wise, is not nearly as superior to the Eagles as you portray....The Eagles have a great chance to extend several players to open up significant cap room and to cut some dead wood to free up even more....

Here is a great breakdown of the Texans cap
http://texanscap.com/2016/01/04/2016-salary-cap-preview/

The Texans can cut Foster to gain a big chunk but the Eagles will cut or restructure Peters, extend Johnson and cut Cooper and restructure Celek...that is a ton of cap room
Rick
QUOTE (D Rock @ Jan 22 2016, 06:08 PM) *
Where is the demand?

Beyond us and Houston, who else is looking? Buffalo? No. NYJets? (maybe but unlikely).

Even the bad teams have young QBs who need to see the field before any decisions can be made. Oakland, Jax, TB, Tenn.

I can only really see cases being made for him in SF, Denver, and Houston. That's not a great deal of "demand" for what he's supplying.

Yes, 3 or 4 teams NEED a QB. There is ONE good QB to choose from. The demand far exceeds the supply.

Basic economics...
Zero
QUOTE (Rick @ Jan 23 2016, 08:25 AM) *
Yes, 3 or 4 teams NEED a QB. There is ONE good QB to choose from. The demand far exceeds the supply.

Basic economics...

I doubt Denver unless they don't think Osweiler will progress to a SB QB. He's been in their system with their coaches and has benefited from watching how Manning works.

Kelly knows Bradford. He fits all the criteria of Kelly's scheme except running. Kaepernick runs, but does he make good decisions and is he repetitively accurate? This is the time for them to rid themselves of Kaep if they don't think he will regain his magic. Kelly's analysis of him will probably determine if they keep him. They have a ton of cap space but they also have lots of needs. Are they in a win now mode?

The Texans have some cap room and will probably open another $6+ million by letting Foster go. They have the room to sign Bradford if he fits their system. They are already a playoff team and might believe that the QB is the last piece.

From Bradford's perspective, he's familiar with Kelly's system but SF apparently has issues on the OL and the defense. Sounds too much like what he went through in Philly. Returning to the Eagles would seem the worst of SF, Houston and here. Houston sounds like the best option if they're interested. If the Eagles could get #22 for him it would be a good deal for the Eagles too.

With two first rounders we could draft that OL and a QB to develop. I'm not sure what the strength of this draft is, but there are normally pretty good OL through the 4th or 5th rounds to add as depth. I don't think it's unreasonable to think that we could get a WR like Kearse, an OL (G) and probably Daniel to play while the rookie QB learns ... Connor Cook?
Zero
Here's an interesting view of the current QB landscape. Written 11/11/15.
QUOTE
Because of his draft pedigree the earning potential for Bradford is high, but teams are going to need to see much more from him before handing over the kind of money top quarterbacks receive. Nick Foles recently signed a two year $12 million contract which is probably the floor for Bradford, provided he maintains his job as a starter and doesn’t get injured. His rookie contract paid $13 million a season and essentially extending him for a year or two between $13 and 14 million seems like a reasonable deal for both parties. While they would not allow him to reach free agency until he is 31, as a quarterback he could conceivably sign two contracts after that. He has to avoid being benched or injured to get the two year deal. If any of those two occurs I believe his value would drop significantly.

Predicted Value: 2 years, $26-$28 million.
Phits
QUOTE (Rick @ Jan 23 2016, 08:25 AM) *
Yes, 3 or 4 teams NEED a QB. There is ONE good QB to choose from. The demand far exceeds the supply.

Basic economics...

who is the good QB?
Reality Fan
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Jan 22 2016, 07:30 PM) *
We are going to have to agree to disagree on the Texans vs Eagles cap situation. After reading the article you suggested it says the Texans have even more space available than I previously wrote.

They discuss WR Hopkins but that is just an extension. He is signed for two more years.

None of their FAs had more than a $2mil cap hit in 2015
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/houston-texans/

As you said they may release high priced RB Foster.

They would presumably cut a QB after signing Bradford.

They have the cap space to overpay, and as a playoff team, have incentive to do so.

I previously listed the situation with the eagles cap--link below. I don't see the $ to sign even most of their FAs plus Bradford @ $18mil.
http://www.wingheads.com/index.php?showtop...rt=#entry281501

The birds have around $16mil in cap space.

Cutting Sanchez, Celek, Alonso, Coop, Maragos and D Kelly saves less than $15mil because they'll have to be replaced by less expensive players.

Then they still have other FAs to replace: Curry, Thornton, N Carrol, W Thurmond, a few backups and their draft picks.

I suppose there is some cap space from 2015 they can carry over to 2016 but I don't know what it is.

Remember the player's cap hit is not the same as the amount the team would save by cutting the player. There is dead money as listed below. Players are not necessarily going to agree to give up $ as we saw last year on the O Line and DE. I imagine a player's pride is involved and a greedy agent is probably whispering in the player's ear. How freakin crazy is Matthis' agent?
http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/philadelphia-eagles/

Is the Eagles cap situation so bad that they can't realistically even use the non-exclusive franchise tag on Bradford as leverage to get some compensation back from the other team? Will the other team really believe that the Eagles would be willing to clear the needed cap space?

This in itself might be reason for Laurie to boot Chip Kelly's ass out the door. What was he thinking when he signed a former Cowgirl to an $8mil contract when he could have settled for Matthews, Sproles, Polk and a Duck for probably $6mil less? How much more did Murray do than Polk would have done. In addition Polk is a good special teamer.

I'm shocked that Howie was not able to exert enough influence on Laurie on this issue. You know Howie understood the cap implications.


You accurately point out some of what the Eagles will do to free up cap room....but you forget the important ones...the restructures and the extensions.....Peters in particular...Lane Johnson...the Eagles will free up considerable cap room....

The only real question is whether they want Bradford or not...if they do than he is here and at a reasonable number but if they don't than numbers won't matter......

Beyond that....there is no indication from the Texans and their media sources that Bradford is really in their plans...
Reality Fan
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Jan 22 2016, 07:30 PM) *
We are going to have to agree to disagree on the Texans vs Eagles cap situation. After reading the article you suggested it says the Texans have even more space available than I previously wrote.

They discuss WR Hopkins but that is just an extension. He is signed for two more years.

None of their FAs had more than a $2mil cap hit in 2015
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/houston-texans/

As you said they may release high priced RB Foster.

They would presumably cut a QB after signing Bradford.

They have the cap space to overpay, and as a playoff team, have incentive to do so.

I previously listed the situation with the eagles cap--link below. I don't see the $ to sign even most of their FAs plus Bradford @ $18mil.
http://www.wingheads.com/index.php?showtop...rt=#entry281501

The birds have around $16mil in cap space.

Cutting Sanchez, Celek, Alonso, Coop, Maragos and D Kelly saves less than $15mil because they'll have to be replaced by less expensive players.

Then they still have other FAs to replace: Curry, Thornton, N Carrol, W Thurmond, a few backups and their draft picks.

I suppose there is some cap space from 2015 they can carry over to 2016 but I don't know what it is.

Remember the player's cap hit is not the same as the amount the team would save by cutting the player. There is dead money as listed below. Players are not necessarily going to agree to give up $ as we saw last year on the O Line and DE. I imagine a player's pride is involved and a greedy agent is probably whispering in the player's ear. How freakin crazy is Matthis' agent?
http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/philadelphia-eagles/

Is the Eagles cap situation so bad that they can't realistically even use the non-exclusive franchise tag on Bradford as leverage to get some compensation back from the other team? Will the other team really believe that the Eagles would be willing to clear the needed cap space?

This in itself might be reason for Laurie to boot Chip Kelly's ass out the door. What was he thinking when he signed a former Cowgirl to an $8mil contract when he could have settled for Matthews, Sproles, Polk and a Duck for probably $6mil less? How much more did Murray do than Polk would have done. In addition Polk is a good special teamer.

I'm shocked that Howie was not able to exert enough influence on Laurie on this issue. You know Howie understood the cap implications.


You accurately point out some of what the Eagles will do to free up cap room....but you forget the important ones...the restructures and the extensions.....Peters in particular...Lane Johnson...the Eagles will free up considerable cap room....

The only real question is whether they want Bradford or not...if they do than he is here and at a reasonable number but if they don't than numbers won't matter......

Beyond that....there is no indication from the Texans and their media sources that Bradford is really in their plans...
nephillymike
You guys are forgetting the most important one:

What % of the cap will Jeffrey authorize them to spend?

In the past, it's been an 85-90% of the whole.

At $154M, that could mean a target of $131M-$139M.

That's big difference!!

Last year, they capped 93% of the total (left 7% in the till), which if memory serves me correct, may have been the highest % ever for them.

One tidbit of great news is Chip getting a job saves Jeff $13M over two years. It all comes out of the same pot. Also, I would imagine Doug and his staff might be a few mill cheaper, but if they get a GM type, that could be more.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Jan 23 2016, 10:47 PM) *
You guys are forgetting the most important one:

What % of the cap will Jeffrey authorize them to spend?

In the past, it's been an 85-90% of the whole.

At $154M, that could mean a target of $131M-$139M.

That's big difference!!

Last year, they capped 93% of the total (left 7% in the till), which if memory serves me correct, may have been the highest % ever for them.

One tidbit of great news is Chip getting a job saves Jeff $13M over two years. It all comes out of the same pot. Also, I would imagine Doug and his staff might be a few mill cheaper, but if they get a GM type, that could be more.


But remember one thing...Lurie is well aware that he pissed off his base and the season ticket holders.....

that is a big deal to him because they are the revenue stream....
This is a "lo-fi" version of our main content. To view the full version with more information, formatting and images, please click here.
Invision Power Board © 2001-2017 Invision Power Services, Inc.