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nephillymike
The worry around Eagle land, and I understand it as I have some of the same concerns, is that if we let Bradford get away, we won't get as good of a QB otherwise.

We have the 13th pick of the draft. If we don't sign Bradford, we will have a bunch of cap room to look elsewhere, but we have the room to do a deal with him if we choose.

You will be happy to know (at least you should), that 7 of the 8 QB's that played in this round was attainable for teams that wanted their services, (so was the other one as I'll show) if that team had the 13th pick of the draft and some cap room, which we have both.

GB - Rodgers - drafted 24th overall (1st round) in 2005
WAS - Cousins - drafted 102nd overall (4th round) in 2012
SEA - Wilson - drafted 75th overall (3rd round) in 2012
MIN - Bridgewater - drafted 32nd overall (1st round) in 2014
CIN - Dalton (although injured) drafted 35th overall (2nd round) in 2011
KC - A. Smith - acq. by trade in 2/13 for a 2nd round pick and conditional 3rd (later upgraded to a 2nd based on KC wins)
HOU - Hoyer - signed as a FA in 2015, with a two year deal and 4.75M guaranteed.
PIT - Big Ben - drafted 11th in '04. The cost to move up from 13 to 11 is a high 4th. Even in a sellers market, a mid 3rd would do it.

Now if you go to a team in each conference that was one win away from making the playoffs:

NYJ - Fitzpatrick - traded with Hou and gave a conditional pick which turned out to be a 6th round pick. They assumed Fitz deal which was a 2yr deal with $4M guaranteed.

Note that all nine of the above had better passer ratings than our two QB's this year, and 8 of 9 have higher ratings for their careers (Fitz 80.8 is just shy of Sam's 81.0)

PHI - Bradford - acquired via trade with a 5th round pick for Foles a 2nd round pick and a 4th round pick, with another pick coming to us if Bradford played less than 50% of the snaps (he didn't so we don't get this). Bradford cost a one year guarantee of $13M

The point is, all of these QB's who played this weekend were attainable in the past with the draft pick and/or cap space we had in those years.

Whether you like him or not, it is not the end of the world if we don't sign Bradford. If we don't and we want a QB with similar results, history shows one can be had with the current resources we have. Sure you need to avoid the Manziel's and EJ Manuel's of the world, but it is far from impossible.
Zero
You almost sound like you're a draft proponent.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Zero @ Jan 11 2016, 06:24 AM) *
You almost sound like you're a draft proponent.



Truth be told, I am not sure what the hell I want to do. I really don't.

Draft, FA, Sanchez, sign Bradford, all are still on the table.

I am going to wait until we find a Head coach and see what offense and defense we will be playing and then go to the draft room, cap room and free agent room and try to sort it all out.

Until then, I'll just hang out and argue with RF, because until we get some clarity, there really isn't anything else to do.
Zero
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Jan 11 2016, 08:11 PM) *
Until then, I'll just hang out and argue with RF

laugh.gif Hope you got a fridge full of some good craft beer.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Zero @ Jan 11 2016, 08:37 PM) *
laugh.gif Hope you got a fridge full of some good craft beer.


Yes.

I got plenty of good stuff as gift over the holidays.

No matter how often I try, I just am not an IPA drinker.

A coworker got me a nice 12 pack from Stone's but it had a coffee beer and three types of hoppy beers. All well rated by Beer advocate, but I just am not into the hoppies.

Belgian's, Malts, wheat, Irish Ale's, Lagers, Stouts, Porters and the Fruit's and holiday ales, but just not the hoppies.

You are going on a desert island, you can take three types of beer:

1. A six pack of any beer to have only on those special occassions, price is no matter. What's your choice?

2. A few cases of a craft brew variety packs from mix and match, any 1 to four breweries, which 4-6 beers you taking?

3. A shitload of cases of a reasonably priced session beer to get you through 20 more years of no SB wins. What say you?
Zero
Definitely with you on the IPA. The rest will take some serious study. Looking forward to that desert island.
D Rock
Try "Point the Way IPA" from Southern Cali's own "Golden Road Brewery."

Best IPA EVER.
samaroo
To make a counterpoint, Mikey: Which QB coming available is equitable to those mentioned?

To me, it doesn't matter what we do with Bradford, drafting a QB is necessary. But there isn't even a Hoying out there, is there?
nephillymike
QUOTE (samaroo @ Jan 12 2016, 09:56 PM) *
To make a counterpoint, Mikey: Which QB coming available is equitable to those mentioned?

To me, it doesn't matter what we do with Bradford, drafting a QB is necessary. But there isn't even a Hoying out there, is there?


Not that this is a HOF list by any stretch, but

By draft:
Lynch
Goff
Cook

2 of those three will likely be above average by year 2, 1 of the three will likely be gone by 13. Roll the dice??

By FA (assuming they hit the market, who knows)

Cousins
Osweiler
Fitzpatrick

By trade or after a cut (not crazy about these)

Kaepernick
RGIII

Just play our "backup" QB - Sanchez

Haven't looked at it too close for trades, but I think others could be had for a 2nd round pick.

If we can get average QB play PLUS the assets with the extra cap we save, then it may be worth it.

It will crystalize once the HC and the FA market shapes up.

It's not a pretty list, just as signing Bradford isn't pretty to me.

That being said, he's in the running. If we keep Shurmur, I may just be inclined to sign him and roll the dice. I don't think a new system does him or us any good, not at all.
Joegrane
If Bradford is signed they only need to draft a future #2 QB. They might do that in the middle rounds.

QUOTE (samaroo @ Jan 12 2016, 09:56 PM) *
...
To me, it doesn't matter what we do with Bradford, drafting a QB is necessary. ...

samaroo
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Jan 13 2016, 12:40 PM) *
Not that this is a HOF list by any stretch, but

By draft:
Lynch
Goff
Cook

2 of those three will likely be above average by year 2, 1 of the three will likely be gone by 13. Roll the dice??

I think we need to draft a QB regardless of what happens with Bradford. Let someone young (with potential) develop without having to start right away. There are good, cost-effective options in this draft. Pick one and sit him.

QUOTE
By FA (assuming they hit the market, who knows)

Cousins No way he leaves Was. And if so, do you think he'd be cheaper and/or better than Bradford?
Osweiler Same as above.
Fitzpatrick You're down on Bradford and see Fitz as an upgrade? He might be cheaper. There's a reason for that.

By trade or after a cut (not crazy about these)

Kaepernick
RGIII

Please god no! I could at least understand the rationale for wanting a "running" QB here in Chip's system. But these two guys are terrible. RGIII is a basket case with accompanying daddy issues. Kaep sucks.



QUOTE
Just play our "backup" QB - Sanchez This would make you happy? Aren't you saying that the goal every year is to win the SB? How is that compatible with Sanchez?

Haven't looked at it too close for trades, but I think others could be had for a 2nd round pick.
Like who? Teams don't trade away good, sure-thing, proven QBs. Period. And if we gamble and miss, then it's not worth the 2nd round pick, right???

If we can get average QB play PLUS the assets with the extra cap we save, then it may be worth it.

It will crystalize once the HC and the FA market shapes up.

It's not a pretty list, just as signing Bradford isn't pretty to me.

That being said, he's in the running. If we keep Shurmur, I may just be inclined to sign him and roll the dice. I don't think a new system does him or us any good, not at all.


I don't see anyone out there who's better than Bradford. And any QB who's decent gets PAID. That's just the way it is. We need Bradford right now. We need to get a young QB as well (if not Lynch, I like Wentz) but we need Bradford right now. I think he'll be overpaid, just like Dalton, Tannehill and Kaep. It's a seller's market.
Rick
QUOTE (samaroo @ Jan 12 2016, 11:47 PM) *
I don't see anyone out there who's better than Bradford. And any QB who's decent gets PAID. That's just the way it is. We need Bradford right now. We need to get a young QB as well (if not Lynch, I like Wentz) but we need Bradford right now. I think he'll be overpaid, just like Dalton, Tannehill and Kaep. It's a seller's market.

Summed it up perfectly.
Eyrie
QUOTE (samaroo @ Jan 13 2016, 04:47 AM) *
I think we need to draft a QB regardless of what happens with Bradford. Let someone young (with potential) develop without having to start right away. There are good, cost-effective options in this draft. Pick one and sit him.

I don't see anyone out there who's better than Bradford. And any QB who's decent gets PAID. That's just the way it is. We need Bradford right now. We need to get a young QB as well (if not Lynch, I like Wentz) but we need Bradford right now. I think he'll be overpaid, just like Dalton, Tannehill and Kaep. It's a seller's market.

If we keep Bradford (and I think we have to, given the alternatives), he's going to want paid and that will lock us into him for 3-4 years so taking a QB at #13 to develop is at least one year too soon.

It's also a waste of our first round pick, given that we have no second round pick but do have glaring needs at OL, pass rusher and WR.
Dreagon
You may have the 13th pick, but there aren't a whole lot of teams ahead of you likely to pick a QB. Personally, I think Cleveland is the only club sure to go QB in the first round, and at this time I think it will almost certainly be for Goff. That still leaves Lynch that I figure has a 50/50 chance of falling to you.

(of course, if my team had a GM with a functioning brain WE would take Lynch and sit him behind Romo for a couple of years...but that ain't gonna happen)
samaroo
QUOTE (Eyrie @ Jan 14 2016, 07:43 AM) *
If we keep Bradford (and I think we have to, given the alternatives), he's going to want paid and that will lock us into him for 3-4 years so taking a QB at #13 to develop is at least one year too soon.

NFL contracts are team friendly, not player friendly. Cutting a player early is ALWAYS an option. So I don't see why signing a player to a contract "locks us in" to him long term. We're only locked in to Murray for 2 years before it's feasible to cut him, and he was arguably the worst contract we've signed in a long time.

And sitting a player for several years (especially a QB) is good. It's the goal for every player. They usually start early or play early because of need, nothing more. Look at Rodgers. And either way, if we paid Bradford a year longer than we wanted, but still found and developed our franchise QB, would anyone really care?
QUOTE
It's also a waste of our first round pick, given that we have no second round pick but do have glaring needs at OL, pass rusher and WR.

I agree that we have several holes to fill, so all of our picks need to hit, but QB is the top priority. Finding a guard, tackle, DE or WR is a hell of a lot easier than finding a QB. If you have a chance to draft your guy, you take him. Fuck if McShay thinks it's a reach.
nephillymike
QUOTE (samaroo @ Jan 13 2016, 07:45 PM) *
NFL contracts are team friendly, not player friendly. Cutting a player early is ALWAYS an option. So I don't see why signing a player to a contract "locks us in" to him long term. We're only locked in to Murray for 2 years before it's feasible to cut him, and he was arguably the worst contract we've signed in a long time.

And sitting a player for several years (especially a QB) is good. It's the goal for every player. They usually start early or play early because of need, nothing more. Look at Rodgers. And either way, if we paid Bradford a year longer than we wanted, but still found and developed our franchise QB, would anyone really care?

I agree that we have several holes to fill, so all of our picks need to hit, but QB is the top priority. Finding a guard, tackle, DE or WR is a hell of a lot easier than finding a QB. If you have a chance to draft your guy, you take him. Fuck if McShay thinks it's a reach.


Locks us into him long term from a cap perspective.

For instance, we are locked in to Maxwell for a few more years and Murray for at least another as the cap hit of cutting them accelerates too much money into the current year for the unamortized signing bonus and guarantee amounts.

Maxwell would cost is almost $7M more to next years cap if we cut him instead of played him.
Reality Fan
Mikey...

I think samaroo hit upon a very important point here...

The NFL is staffed by guys who follow, study, analyze tape etc.....they study the game, the players....

Fitzpatrick is in the last year of a 2 year $7 million contract for an 8-8 team.....

Is he on the same level as Bradford?

If Bradford is not a good QB then he should not command big dollars....surely everyone watched the same tape as you....he may get paid a little more than Fitzpatrick but he won;t command a monster deal...unless....
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Jan 13 2016, 08:26 PM) *
Mikey...

I think samaroo hit upon a very important point here...

The NFL is staffed by guys who follow, study, analyze tape etc.....they study the game, the players....

Fitzpatrick is in the last year of a 2 year $7 million contract for an 8-8 team.....

Is he on the same level as Bradford?

If Bradford is not a good QB then he should not command big dollars....surely everyone watched the same tape as you....he may get paid a little more than Fitzpatrick but he won;t command a monster deal...unless....


If they both hit the market this year, Sam will make a lot more than Fitz. A good part of that is age, a good part of it is 1st pick pedigree, very little of it is performance based.

Present value of future performance. Future performance for a 28 year old is normally much more than a 33 year old.

Remember the comparison is Sam and his guarantee vs Fitz and his guarantee plus what you can for the money left over if you go the Fitz route (just using him, could be any other of the options, draft, trade or FA)
Joegrane
Dreagon, why don't you think they will take a QB? How many years do you think Tony has? Green Bay sat Rodgers for a couple of years.

QUOTE (Dreagon @ Jan 13 2016, 06:16 PM) *
You may have the 13th pick, but there aren't a whole lot of teams ahead of you likely to pick a QB. Personally, I think Cleveland is the only club sure to go QB in the first round, and at this time I think it will almost certainly be for Goff. That still leaves Lynch that I figure has a 50/50 chance of falling to you.

(of course, if my team had a GM with a functioning brain WE would take Lynch and sit him behind Romo for a couple of years...but that ain't gonna happen)

Rick
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Jan 13 2016, 08:34 PM) *
very little of it is performance based.

Huh?
Dreagon
QUOTE (Joegrane @ Jan 13 2016, 07:39 PM) *
Dreagon, why don't you think they will take a QB? How many years do you think Tony has? Green Bay sat Rodgers for a couple of years.


Because that would involve having a GM with a functioning brain, instead of one who always wants to draft the instant marquee guy to sell tickets. We could have Paxton Lynch, and sit him under Romo just like Green Bay did with Rogers, but where is the "pizzazz" in that? Even though that would be the smart and practical use for such a high draft choice, I just don't think Jones will find that sexy enough. No, my nightmare is that Jones will trade a second for Johnny Manziel because he still has a huge fanbase here in Texas, and then use the top pick on a DE in a draft that has a bunch of them.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Jan 13 2016, 08:34 PM) *
If they both hit the market this year, Sam will make a lot more than Fitz. A good part of that is age, a good part of it is 1st pick pedigree, very little of it is performance based.

Present value of future performance. Future performance for a 28 year old is normally much more than a 33 year old.

Remember the comparison is Sam and his guarantee vs Fitz and his guarantee plus what you can for the money left over if you go the Fitz route (just using him, could be any other of the options, draft, trade or FA)


ok...first pick pedigree?..hmm..so RGIII will make more than both of them? He was the 2nd pick in the draft and is only 25...because, you know, it is not performance based....

and the comparison is that in a market driven by expected performance you say that Bradford will get a ton more money..yet say his performance is lacking or on par with a Fitzpatrick..explain it better than 1st round pedigree...because we can shoot holes in that all day long...why will Bradford get double the money and a long term contract?

samaroo
I think he'll get a contract comparable to Tannehill. Does he deserve it? That's subjective. But the market says yes, so he probably will. There aren't a bunch of even decent QBs, so supply is larger than demand.

So, to me, it's a matter of whether Sleevie Wonder is worth it TO US. I think yes. There isn't anyone better to get. And he'll have continuity with this team and these players. And probably his OC. And because he progressed like we all hoped he would.

Mikey, I don't get how you say we overpaid for Maxwell because we had to (we did), but shouldn't for Bradford. That's the thing I'm stuck on.
Phits
QUOTE (samaroo @ Jan 14 2016, 06:33 PM) *
So, to me, it's a matter of whether Sleevie Wonder is worth it TO US. I think yes. There isn't anyone better to get. And he'll have continuity with this team and these players. And probably his OC. And because he progressed like we all hoped he would.

I'd say he is progressing, but he's not there yet.
samaroo
QUOTE (Phits @ Jan 15 2016, 09:31 AM) *
I'd say he is progressing, but he's not there yet.

Isn't where yet? SB winning caliber QB? I agree. But that doesn't mean he's not worth $20M/yr. An average, starting-caliber QB in the NFL right now is worth that, so says the market.
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