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nephillymike
For any of you who have ever watched the Sixers, or for those of us who took a tanking hiatus, here is what is at stake for the Sixers in Tuesday's lottery:

The NBA had all 14 non playoff teams eligible for the lottery. They use the lottery system to select the top three picks, after that, the picks are assigned from worst to best record of the remaining teams. So in the worst case scenario, if three teams below the Sixers jump up and get the first three picks, the Sixers wil pick no later than 6th

The Sixers have the 3rd worst record in the NBA and as such have the following chances of getting picks one to six:

1st - 15.6%
2nd - 15.6%
3rd - 15.7%
4th - 22.6%
5th - 26.5%
6th - 4.0%

From what most are saying, for the Sixers needs, this is a four player draft for the top pick, and the Sixers may not need the two highest rated guys Townes and Okafor because we have Embiid and Noel, so if we get a top two we may have a trade down opportunity but we don't want to be any lower than 4. so we have roughly a 2 in 3 shot of getting top 4.

Next, the Sixers have a chance for the Lakers pick this year, but only if that pick is not a top five pick. The Lakers have the 4th worst record, and there is a 17.2% chance that their pick is after the 5th (16.0% for 6th and 1.2% for 7th). If we don't get it this year, we get it in '16 if not top 3, '17 if not top 3 and '18 no matter where they pick.

Lastly, the Sixers have a chance for the Heats pick this year, but only if that pick is not a top 10 pick. The Heat have the 10th worst record, and there is a 8.9% chance that their pick is after the 10th pick (8.9% for 11th and a .0002% chance of the 12th which we will ignore as not having a chance to happen). If we don't get it this year, we get the pick next year unless it's top 10, and if top 10 next year, we get it in '17 no matter where they pick.

So we could have anywhere from one to three picks, and we could be picking a player at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 11.

With the help of MikeyNumbers Jr, an actuary student, here are the % chances of the various combinations:

Chance that we get only one draft pick = 75.9%
Chance that we get two draft picks = 22.6%
Chance that we get three draft picks = 1.5%

Chance that we get two picks in top six = 17.4%

PHI,LAL,MIA....%Chance
5th - - 20.00%
4th - - 17.06%
3rd - - 11.86%
1st - - 11.78%
2nd - - 11.78%
5th 6th - 3.88%
4th 6th - 3.31%
6th - - 3.04%
3rd 6th - 2.31%
1st 6th - 2.29%
2nd 6th - 2.29%
5th - 11th 1.98%
4th - 11th 1.69%
3rd - 11th 1.18%
1st - 11th 1.17%
2nd - 11th 1.17%
5th 6th 11th 0.40%
4th 6th 11th 0.34%
6th - 11th 0.32%
5th 7th - 0.31%
4th 7th - 0.27%
3rd 6th 11th 0.24%
1st 6th 11th 0.24%
2nd 6th 11th 0.24%
3rd 7th - 0.19%
1st 7th - 0.19%
2nd 7th - 0.19%
6th 7th - 0.06%
5th 7th 11th 0.05%
4th 7th 11th 0.04%
3rd 7th 11th 0.04%
1st 7th 11th 0.04%
2nd 7th 11th 0.04%
6th 7th 11th 0.02%

Anyone hoop fan feel free to chime in as to which picks are worth keeping given the talent.
Joegrane
QUOTE (nephillymike @ May 17 2015, 08:57 AM) *
For any of you who have ever watched the Sixers, or for those of us who took a tanking hiatus, here is what is at stake for the Sixers in Tuesday's lottery:

The NBA had all 14 non playoff teams eligible for the lottery. They use the lottery system to select the top three picks, after that, the picks are assigned from worst to best record of the remaining teams. So in the worst case scenario, if three teams below the Sixers jump up and get the first three picks, the Sixers wil pick no later than 6th

The Sixers have the 3rd worst record in the NBA and as such have the following chances of getting picks one to six:

1st - 15.6%
2nd - 15.6%
3rd - 15.7%
4th - 22.6%
5th - 26.5%

From what most are saying, for the Sixers needs, this is a four player draft for the top pick, and the Sixers may not need the two highest rated guys Townes and Okafor because we have Embiid and Noel, so if we get a top two we may have a trade down opportunity but we don't want to be any lower than 4. so we have roughly a 2 in 3 shot of getting top 4.

Next, the Sixers have a chance for the Lakers pick this year, but only if that pick is not a top five pick. The Lakers have the 4th worst record, and there is a 17.2% chance that their pick is after the 5th (16.0% for 6th and 1.2% for 7th). If we don't get it this year, we get it in '16 if not top 3, '17 if not top 3 and '18 no matter where they pick.

...snip ...

Anyone hoop fan feel free to chime in as to which picks are worth keeping given the talent.


Thanks for the in depth information!

The stat that makes me nervous is 30+% chance of ending up out of the top 4.

Teams that go deep in the playoffs usually have one of the MVP candidates. In today's game that is not likely to be a Center but someone who plays--or at least can play-- on the perimeter.

My concern is that they will have "tanked" but never got the elite perimeter player they'll need to be an elite team.

If they get #1 or #2 will they prefer one of this year's Bigs to the ones they already have?

Or do they "get cute" and try to trade down and still get one of the two elite PGs.
JaxEagle
So, 1.5% chance we could get something that would almost guarantee success in the near future. Vamos!!
nephillymike
Well, we avoided disaster which is fine by me.

We only had a 46% chance of getting a top three and we bucked the odds and ended up at #3,

Should get us our choice of Russell or Mudiay to be our PG of the future. I'd rather have Russell.

Word is that Saric will stay in Europe another year, which gives us:

C Embiid
PF - Noel
SF - TBD
PG - Russell
SG - TBD

Those three and build a team and try to win, should get us out of the bottom 7 for next year.

Hopefully Saric and another top ten pick or two (ours and Lakers' '16 picks) will get us to .500 in two years.

Can't say I'm standing on my head spitting wooden nickles but we'll see.

To all and any tankologists out there, do you play to win this year or do you tank again?
samaroo
Mikey, your last line is the main thing that is broken about the NBA.
D Rock
#3 overall pick is ours.

Get Russell or Mudiay, start Grant at the 3 spot, and find another gem or two with our 4 (or is it 5) 2nd rounders and STOP THE TANKING.

No need to tank for draft position next season. We already have our own pick, Lakers pick (top 3 protected), and the Heat's pick (top 10 protected) giving us a very good chance of having 2 or 3 first rounders next year WITH Saric coming into the fold.

It's time to start building for real.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (D Rock @ May 20 2015, 10:15 AM) *
#3 overall pick is ours.

Get Russell or Mudiay, start Grant at the 3 spot, and find another gem or two with our 4 (or is it 5) 2nd rounders and STOP THE TANKING.

No need to tank for draft position next season. We already have our own pick, Lakers pick (top 3 protected), and the Heat's pick (top 10 protected) giving us a very good chance of having 2 or 3 first rounders next year WITH Saric coming into the fold.

It's time to start building for real.

Agree with this. Also believe the Heats pick is unprotected in 2017 if we don't get it next year.
nephillymike
Nabby and D,

I forget which one talked me off the ledge a month ago or so, but I need some reassurance again.

Given that we got the 3rd pick, which is where our record said we would get, which is where we were as of 2/19, the date of the MCW trade,

AND

Given that the Lakers pick was top five protected and that they were 4th when we made the trade and they ended up 4th worst,

AND

given that the odds of the LAL slipping to 6th or 7th was only 17%, which was the odds of us getting that pick this year

AND

given that the LAL will be better next year, so they are likely slated to pick 8 or after next year

AND

given the statistical fact that our draft pick spot and the chance of us getting the LAL pick this year work against each other (ie for the Lakers to get to #6, two team below #4 would have to sneak into the lottery and that reduces our chance of getting a top three pick)

Why do the MCW deal? Did we get real value? A 17% chance this year at the LAL pick or the LAL pick next year that is 8 or later would seem we didn't?

Struggling on this one.
nephillymike
BTW,

I just looked,

We have FIVE 2nd round picks this year!

You would think that two of them can play, no? At least in a backup role?

Also saw where we could have four 1st round picks next year:

Ours
LAL (if not top 3)
MIA (if not top 10)
OKC (if not top 15)

I would think our odds of getting all four would be pretty good. MIA was 10th this year and OKC was 14th and LAL was 4th and all should improve to make those picks a reality.

If I had to wild ass guess, I'd say we'd get something like:

Ours = 7th
LAL = 9th
MIA = 15th
OKC = 22nd

I wonder what kind of talent the 7-9-15-22 draft has gotten in the past?
nephillymike
http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm


Those four picks should lead to:

0.70 star players
0.85 solid players
1.05 role players
1.10 deep bench players
0.25 Busts
0.05 Players who will not play in NBA.

And this is overated. By the definitions of star players, MCW, T. Young and E. Turner are rated as "star" players.



Joegrane
QUOTE (nephillymike @ May 20 2015, 09:10 PM) *
...

Also saw where we could have four 1st round picks next year:

...

If I had to wild ass guess, I'd say we'd get something like:

Ours = 7th
LAL = 9th
MIA = 15th
OKC = 22nd

I wonder what kind of talent the 7-9-15-22 draft has gotten in the past?


I agree with your guess; however, due to Miami's age and injury history, the pick could be at risk.

Recall that Andre Iguodala was drafted at #9. They'll eventually need someone like Iggy, a strong defender who can be a 4th option on offense.

Hopefully they'll pick up a solid wing 3 pt shooter.

Maybe with the lower two they could pick up a defensive minded backup PF/4 and backup PG.

I assume at some point they'll package some of the 2nd rounders to move up slightly.

With all of those young players they'll need a bus load of coaches.


Joegrane
QUOTE (nephillymike @ May 19 2015, 10:23 PM) *
...
C Embiid
PF - Noel
PG - Russell
...
Those three .... should get us out of the bottom 7 for next year.

Hopefully Saric and another top ten pick or two (ours and Lakers' '16 picks) will get us to .500 in two years.
...
To all and any tankologists out there, do you play to win this year or do you tank again?

I agree but I think Hinkie will pressure Coach Brown to focus on player development rather than maximum number of wins--a semi-tank to ensure a decent number of lottery balls.

Their young players will get minutes so they can grow and gain experience.

They will avoid talented FAs; although I expect to see one or two aging veterans for leadership.

Even without lottery luck they should be able to get a solid SF or SG like Winslow or Hezonja.

Two years from now the team will really take shape. They'll likely add three or four 1st rounders plus Saric who is improving his game in Europe. They'll have the best of the many 2nd rounders for depth.

It should be a good team in a few years. Until then it will still be painful to watch the scoreboard.
D Rock
Mikey - We did the MCW deal because the kid can't shoot. The fact that we got a lottery pick in return is huge. Hinkie knew we likely wouldn't make that pick this year, but it was still a good deal.

Regarding our getting Russell at 3, I wouldn't count on it.

Look at the Lakers history. They NEVER draft a big man, and had that concept reinforced by the lone exception of drafting Bynum. Their philosophy under Bus was always to draft your guards and get your bigs from Free Agency or Trade after they've proved they can take the NBA pounding.

I would say that the Lakers are more likely to pick Russell at 2 over Towns or Okafor.

I want Russell, but I'm guessing Hinkie trades back rather than take the flier on Mudiay. I just dont see the Lakers going with a Big, especially after taking Randall (and undersized 4) last year.
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