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Full Version: Our picks versus rankings and ratings. How did we do?
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The veterans of the board know the routine. Each year I rate the Eagles draft by comparing the position we drafted a player in versus what he was ranked on the draft boards. I also use a few sources that give ratings on expected performance of prospects to give an idea of expectations of success. As I said elsewhere, if they can play is most important. This just shows how they were valued by other "experts" in both ranking and ratings of success.

I do a compilation of many sources;, ESPN, CBS Sports, Draftek, Walter Football. ESPN and (Mike Mayock) also do quality rankings of expected success of each prospect in addition to ranking all of the prospects.

The list below has the round, prospect name, Pos, and rankings from CBS,, Draftek, ESPN and Walter Football. I also use four mock drafts for the first three rounds to see where these guys were projected to get selected which differs from the rankings as teams needs come into play. I do a compilation of any players who are listed in the top 150 of any of the five sources and list the rankings for each of those players. I just summarize the ratings and rankings of others as I am not a scout. (Walter Football only lists top 97) But after going through some form of this for the last 20 years, the great majority of the time the reaches don't pan out and the values provide value. The Watkins, Jon Harris, and Marcus Smiths of the world who are obvious big reaches rarely ever pan out. Ray Rhodes can tell you that the guy is the next Charles Haley but it doesn't make it so.

That being said, here are the detail on our picks:
Rnd, Pick, Name, Pos, CBS,, Draftek, ESPN, Walter Football, Compilation Rnk, Rating, ESPN Rating
1st, #20, Algholar, WR, 37, 63, 43, 30, 57, 41st, 5.60, 88
2nd, #47, Rowe, CB,36,87,44,57,>97, 61st, 5.40, 81
3rd, #84, Hicks, LB, 121,114,107,140,>97, 113th, 5.40, 59
6th, #191,Shepherd, CB, 153,155,237,191, >97, 171st, 5.36, 61
6th, #196, Evans, CB, 235,276,>400,196, >97, 5.11,N/A 30
7th, #237, Mihalik, DE, 405,>340, 104,237,>97, N/A, 4.7, 30

Two of our players were projected to go in the top three rounds based on the four mocks I followed:

Algholar = 41st, 35th, 20th, 35th with us being the 20th pick. So talent and draft slot was a decent amount higher.
Rowe = 49th, 45th, 62nd, 32nd - so it looks like we got him about where we needed to.
None of the other four picks were projected top 3 rounds by ESPN, Walter (2 mocks), Draftek

Based upon the grading used by and ESPN (listed below), here's what we can expect:

1 guys at the lower end of a chance to be an NFL starter (Agholar )
3 guys in the upper end of a player with backup or special teams potential (Shepherd, Rowe, Hicks)
1 guy with a better than average chance to make the low end of a roster (Evans)
1 guy with a chance to get an invite to an NFL camp (Mihalik)

2 guys deemed outstanding prospects and rated as 2nd round prospects (Algholar and Rowe)
1 guy rated as a good prospect and viable middle round pick (Shepherd)
1 guy rated as an adequate prospect and a fifth round pick (Hicks)
1 guy rated as a borderline Undrafted college free agent, late draft pick (Mihalik)

Using all of the above, I give a talent grade and a "value" grade for each. Talent is based upon need and expectations for his draft slot while value is based on where we got him versus rankings. A = esc, B = good, C = avg, D = below avg, F = unacceptable

Algholar = B+ talent, D value
Rowe = B+ talent, B value
Hicks = D talent, D value
Shepherd = A talent, A- value
Evans = D talent, D value
Mihalik = D talent, F value

Overall = C talent, C- value

Over the years we've seen a lot better and a few worse. At least no first round reaches of Harris like proportions.

Hopefully we can move a few pieces to get an OL starter/solid backup and/or maybe a 3rd or 4th round pick next year.

Here are the grading descriptions for (Mayock) and ESPN:
9.00-10 Once-in-lifetime player
8.00-8.99 Perennial All-Pro
7.50-7.99 Future All-Pro
7.00-7.49 Pro Bowl-caliber player
6.50-6.99 Chance to become Pro Bowl-caliber player
6.00-6.49 Should become instant starter
5.50-5.99 Chance to become NFL starter
5.20-5.49 NFL backup or special teams potential
5.01-5.19 Better-than-average chance to make NFL roster
5.00 50-50 Chance to make NFL roster
4.75-4.99 Should be in an NFL training camp
4.50-4.74 Chance to be in an NFL training camp

90-100 Rare Prospect
Player demonstrates rare abilities and can create mismatches that have an obvious impact on the game. Is a premier college player that has all the skill to take over a game and play at a championship level. He rates in the top 5 players in the nation at his position and is considered a first round draft prospect.
80-89 Outstanding Prospect
Player has abilities to create mismatches versus most opponents in the NFL. A feature player that has an impact on the outcome of the game. Cannot be shut down by a single player and plays on a consistent level week in and week out. He rates in the top 10 at his position and is considered a second round draft prospect.
70-79 Solid Prospect
Still a standout player at the college level that is close to being an elite player. He has no glaring weaknesses and will usually win his individual matchups, but does not dominate in every game, especially when matched up against the top players in the country. He will usually rate in the top third of players at his position and is considered a third round draft prospect.
60-69 Good Prospect
This player is an good starter that will give a solid effort week in and week out, but he is overmatched versus the better players in the nation. His weaknesses will be exposed against top competition. He is usually a prospect that is missing something from his game. For example, he has the size and skills to be an outstanding prospect, but lacks the speed. He will usually rate in the top half of the players at his position and is considered a middle round draft choice.
50-59 Adequate Prospect
These are usually players that play at a high level in college, but lack some measurables or skills to play at that same level in the NFL. He may be a player that has a lot of developmental qualities, or could be a player that will contribute right away on special teams or in a situational capacity. He will usually rate in the second-third at his position and is considered a fifth round draft choice.
21-49 Borderline Draft Prospect
These are players that teams like something about, but certainly do not have the full package in terms of NFL talent. A lot of times, teams will take chances on character players or developmental type athletes with this grade. And often, these are players that come from smaller schools or did not standout at the college level. NFL teams are looking for 'diamonds in the rough' with this type of prospect. He will usually rate in the bottom third of players at his position and will be considered a late round draft choice or un-drafted free agent.
20 Free Agent Prospect
These are players that did not make our original 'evaluation list' but are prospects that need to be monitored. Especially in the pre-season, these players will fluctuate up and down depending on performance in their final year of eligibility.
Reality Fan
I am so glad the draft is over.....
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