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Full Version: The Depth of this Draft By Position and Compared to 2014
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nephillymike
Using Mayock's Grading System as a Guide, How does this draft compare to last year's and what can we expect to net from it?

Overall Grading Levels and Prospects Per Level, 2015 vs 2014:

Future All Pro (7.50 and above) 2015 = 1, 2014 = 1
Pro Bowl Caliber (7.00 - 7.49) '15 = 1, '14 = 4
Chance at Pro Bowl (6.50-6.99) '15 = 7, '14 = 1
Project As Instant Starter (6.00-6.49) '15 = 19, '14 = 22
Chance To Start (5.50 - 5.99) '15 = 67, '14 =44

Total Instant Starter or Above (6.00 or higher) '15 = 28, '14 = 28
Total Chance to Start or Above (5.50 or higher) '15 = 95, '14 = 72

So last draft had a few more superstar potential, but not as much depth down to the "chance to start" level. By having 23 more "chance to start", this year's draft is about 3/4 of a round deeper,al the way down to end of round 3..

Here's where the depth is by positon, by level. 1st # is Future All Pro down to Chance to start for a total count by 5 levels

QB - 0,0,1,1,0 = 2 total. Get one of top two or don't bother!
RB - 0,0,0,2,6 = 8 total
WR - 0,1,1,2,10 = 14 total. Draftek has this as our highest need. Says we need two!! Nothing like creating a need.
TE - 0,0,0,0,2 = 2 total. Down year!
OG - 0,0,0,1,4 = 5 total.
OT - 0,0,0,4,5 = 9 total.
OC - 0,0,0,0,3 = 3 total.
DE - 1,0,1,0,8 = 10 total. DE Williams the highest rated
DT - 0,0,1,4,6 = 11 total. Good depth. Not sure how many are 3-4
OLB - 0,0,3,2,4 = 9 total.
ILB - 0,0,0,0,5 = 5 total. No need now, Great depth
S - 0,0,0,1,4 = 5 total. Collins not a scheme fit. Would be nice if one of past guys step up.
CB - 0,0,0,2,10 = 12 total. Only two instant starters. Not as good as advertised.

According to Draftek, our priority needs in most dire order:

Priority 1 = WR
Priority 2 = RB, FS, CB, LOT
Priority 3 = SS, OG, WR Again
Priority 4 = OLB, ROT,
Priority 5 = WRS
Priority 6 = QB (obviously doesn't have the same draft board as me!)

So there are a decent amount of instant starters available at our positions of need.

For expectations from this draft in terms of starters etc, check out this article at NFP. We're supposed to yield 1.62 5 yr starters from the eight picks we have:

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/draft-...ns-by-nfl-team/
Zero
This doesn't seem to support your passion for MM. It seems he would be a luxury, especially with a coach and a system that favors QBs. Sacrificing the depth and future growth/competitiveness of the team for one player doesn't make sense to me. Again, especially when Kelly has shown that he doesn't need a HOF QB to make the offense proficient enough to win games. The debate starts when we talk about winning championships, but how much of that is on a super star vs a solid starter? Do we consider Eli a super star? Wilson?
nephillymike
QUOTE (Zero @ Apr 12 2015, 04:18 AM) *
This doesn't seem to support your passion for MM. It seems he would be a luxury, especially with a coach and a system that favors QBs. Sacrificing the depth and future growth/competitiveness of the team for one player doesn't make sense to me. Again, especially when Kelly has shown that he doesn't need a HOF QB to make the offense proficient enough to win games. The debate starts when we talk about winning championships, but how much of that is on a super star vs a solid starter? Do we consider Eli a super star? Wilson?



I think the folks at Draftek saw the signing of Bradford as filling the self created need from trading Foles and don't see us in the market for a QB. Do you think Chip sees us in the market for his college QB? I think his draft needs chart would have QB near the top.

Where you and I may differ is in two things #1 expected return of the players we would draft if we held on to the picks and #2 whether or not Bradford is a solid starter. I see the draft as more of a crap shoot than most and I don't think Bradford is a solid starter, neither in ability or availability. Given MM is an unknown, but someone who excelled in the same system for the same coach would take most of the risk out of it for me. The combination of all three puts me more willing to do the deal than most.
Zero
To be clear, I'm not opposed to drafting Mariota and I'm not against trading to get him. I'm opposed to betting the next 3-5 years that he will be the difference. You know better than I do that the odds favor multiple picks over a single pick. The odds of him being a difference maker may be greater than those of any other single player, but it's the 'multiple' vs 'one' that changes the game for me.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Zero @ Apr 12 2015, 09:31 AM) *
To be clear, I'm not opposed to drafting Mariota and I'm not against trading to get him. I'm opposed to betting the next 3-5 years that he will be the difference. You know better than I do that the odds favor multiple picks over a single pick. The odds of him being a difference maker may be greater than those of any other single player, but it's the 'multiple' vs 'one' that changes the game for me.



True. Most times the team giving up multiple picks to move up gets the short end of the deal.

And it's not because of what they gave up per se, the deficiency is in the performance of what they got.

It's the "three tickets in the crap shoot lottery is better than one ticket in the crap shoot lottery" theory.

Even with top ten selections used on QB's, the success rate is not very high.

However, I think MM is different because of the uniqueness of Kelly's system. He's run to great success before. His measurable skills are top tier FOR KELLY'S SYSTEM. I think that elevates his chance of success way up compared to most top ten selections on QB's. My one caveat with him is that his mild personality may make it difficult to play in THIS city. Foles has the same demeanor and did OK at that part of the deal, but it was only a small sample. He's quiet and reserved. That may be difficult for him. I worry that he will take the criticism too much to heart. But on all else, it's a go for me.
Zero
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 12 2015, 11:02 AM) *
However, I think MM is different because of the uniqueness of Kelly's system. He's run to great success before. His measurable skills are top tier FOR KELLY'S SYSTEM.

This is a small part of my concern. What if Kelly leaves in 2-3 years ... even 5 years. That potential is at least diminished.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Zero @ Apr 12 2015, 10:47 AM) *
This is a small part of my concern. What if Kelly leaves in 2-3 years ... even 5 years. That potential is at least diminished.


Yes, an early exit is a valid concern.
samaroo
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 13 2015, 12:53 AM) *
Yes, an early exit is a valid concern.

I don't think Chip is going anywhere. Even if he shits the bed, he'll get a few years on GP, otherwise Jeff looks like an idiot. Something tells me Jeff doesn't like that sort of thing...

But I think Chip likes it here, and won't leave either way. He's only gone if he's fired, IMO.
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