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Zero
I haven't really read the sitio oficial lately and I'm acutely aware that Davo Spadso is the 'ugliest cheerleader', but this rings true and is a compliment to Kelly and his view of nation (team) building. Most of the 'teams' players may not be seen as starters, but they can play if needed and excel at their duties on ST.
QUOTE
Some key contributors have left – namely tight end James Casey, linebacker Casey Matthews and cornerbacks Bradley Fletcher and Cary Williams are all gone, and wide receiver Brad Smith is an unrestricted free agent – and those departures aren’t being taken lightly. The Eagles want upgrades on special teams. Jones is in for Matthews. Biggers is in for Fletcher. Ajirotutu is in for Smith. Burton has his work cut out in year two, stepping up his game to become a dominating core member of Fipp’s group.
Linc ...

How many games were won last year because of ST? Some of us spoke of those wins as almost not counting. Luck or fortune, not really a sign that the better team won. Bullsh*t.
Eyrie
Agreed.

STs are undervalued because the players that feature tend to be the guys that aren't good enough to get time in their "regular" position.

But gaining an extra 5-10 yards or denying your opponent that same distance on a couple of drives can mean that you're starting much closer to scoring at least a FG, and making your opponent work that much harder for the same opportunity.

For that reason I've always favoured keeping 2-3 players who are primarily STers in addition to the specialists at K, P and LS.
samaroo
Yep, they're more important than they usually get credit for. I remember some coach years ago (maybe Dungy?) talking about how important they are, and saying that one of every 8 plays in football is a kick, so he always put a premium on ST. 1/8 seems high, but damn! if that numbers right, it's way, way, way more important than I would've thought otherwise, as evidenced last year. We won 3-4 games that we "should've/could've" lost without great ST play.

Shit, they out offensed our offense a couple times!
nephillymike
QUOTE (samaroo @ Apr 10 2015, 10:14 PM) *
Yep, they're more important than they usually get credit for. I remember some coach years ago (maybe Dungy?) talking about how important they are, and saying that one of every 8 plays in football is a kick, so he always put a premium on ST. 1/8 seems high, but damn! if that numbers right, it's way, way, way more important than I would've thought otherwise, as evidenced last year. We won 3-4 games that we "should've/could've" lost without great ST play.

Shit, they out offensed our offense a couple times!


I think you need to adjust out PAT's. Any play with a 99.8% success rate is not reasonable for improvement.

My guess is that ST's based on influential plays only, is less than 10% in the NFL, maybe half that.

I don't have time to look it up, but total plays is findable. Snap counts for ST's players vs full timers if findable.
samaroo
Okay, here's some rough numbers. These came from FO player stats, so they might not be perfect, but I figure they're good enough. For offense snaps, I used QB, for defense I used S, and for ST I used Dorenbos and did some math. All numbers are just for the Eagles in 2014. Here's what I got.

Offensive snaps....1176
Defensive snaps...1157
ST snaps................518

So, ST's accounted for 18%, or 1 out of every 5.5 plays. We attempted 54 PATs, so that brings the total number of plays down from 2851 to 2797, and total ST snaps to 464. That changes the numbers to 16% of plays, or 1 out of every 6.25 plays.

That seems pretty significant to me. Or my math is terrible* and I suck and it's not. But I thought 1/8 plays was a lot, but 1/6 is crazy! Agree? Or did I math wrong?

*Translation for Eyrie: "Or my maths are terrible..."
Eyrie
The maths are the same over here. One in six does seem a little high but will presumably be for both teams so includes our returns as well as our kicks.

I'm more intrigued by the fact that we had more offensive than defensive snaps as my view is that time of possession is overrated and it's the number of plays that counts.
Zero
QUOTE (samaroo @ Apr 11 2015, 02:00 AM) *
Okay, here's some rough numbers. These came from FO player stats, so they might not be perfect, but I figure they're good enough. For offense snaps, I used QB, for defense I used S, and for ST I used Dorenbos and did some math. All numbers are just for the Eagles in 2014. Here's what I got.

Offensive snaps....1176
Defensive snaps...1157
ST snaps................518

So, ST's accounted for 18%, or 1 out of every 5.5 plays. We attempted 54 PATs, so that brings the total number of plays down from 2851 to 2797, and total ST snaps to 464. That changes the numbers to 16% of plays, or 1 out of every 6.25 plays.

That seems pretty significant to me. Or my math is terrible* and I suck and it's not. But I thought 1/8 plays was a lot, but 1/6 is crazy! Agree? Or did I math wrong?

*Translation for Eyrie: "Or my maths are terrible..."
Wow! We gots Sammy Numbers in da gang! laugh.gif
nephillymike
QUOTE (Zero @ Apr 11 2015, 05:50 AM) *
Wow! We gots Sammy Numbers in da gang! laugh.gif



Good stuff Sammy!

I am surprised at the 16% figure or 1 in 6.25.

So thought of another way, ST's players are worth 1/6th of another player, which sounds more reasonable.

So I take ST's adds in that context.

does one ST play have the same influence as one Off or Def play?

Probably would need to measure influence. Maybe net yards difference between best and worst ST's versus net yards difference between best and worst Off and Def. Or maybe points scored/allowed by each unit per play. If ST's has 1/6th the scoring/allowing per play than O and D, then it would be equal influence. I'm not sure if the ST's influence would be greater or lesser than the other units.
Zero
I don't think this can be viewed only in terms of numbers. I'd think a great return following a score or a punt, or a big stuff following both can inflict a psychological wound on the opposition that can affect their intensity or discipline. Big plays in an part of the game that has fewer opportunities can really take the wind out of the following series for the opposition and add a charge to the successful team.
samaroo
QUOTE (Zero @ Apr 11 2015, 07:50 PM) *
Wow! We gots Sammy Numbers in da gang! laugh.gif

Nonononono! That was just a one time thing! biggrin.gif

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 11 2015, 10:25 PM) *
Good stuff Sammy!

I am surprised at the 16% figure or 1 in 6.25.

So thought of another way, ST's players are worth 1/6th of another player, which sounds more reasonable.

So I take ST's adds in that context.

does one ST play have the same influence as one Off or Def play?

Probably would need to measure influence. Maybe net yards difference between best and worst ST's versus net yards difference between best and worst Off and Def. Or maybe points scored/allowed by each unit per play. If ST's has 1/6th the scoring/allowing per play than O and D, then it would be equal influence. I'm not sure if the ST's influence would be greater or lesser than the other units.

The 1/6th player worth sounds about right. I don't think we've overpayed any of our ST guys. Especially if they're gonna get us a TD every other game!

As far as quantifying ST game impact, I don't have the ability to try to do that. I strained my math muscle on the other thing. But I think it's important enough that I'm way okay with Chip bringing in guys just to play ST. They basically won 2 games for us last year, and could've won us 2 more. I'm not counting on that every year, but that's a pretty big deal.

QUOTE (Zero @ Apr 11 2015, 10:47 PM) *
I don't think this can be viewed only in terms of numbers. I'd think a great return following a score or a punt, or a big stuff following both can inflict a psychological wound on the opposition that can affect their intensity or discipline. Big plays in an part of the game that has fewer opportunities can really take the wind out of the following series for the opposition and add a charge to the successful team.

I agree. As far as that big ol' momentum goes, is there anything better than a defensive or ST TD to swing it? I don't think so.

I wonder what the numbers are for winning % for teams that score that way are. I would bet pretty high, for obvious reasons. But the psychology can't be dismissed, either.
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