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samaroo
Football Outsiders has an interesting piece on play stoppages due to injury. He seems to break it down pretty intelligently, but I'm not a statistician, so I can't be sure. Mikey, maybe you can weigh in here?

Anyway, I seem to recall a lot more defensive injuries when we have the ball the last few years, but didn't know if it was just my jaded view or not (*cough* Giants *cough*) These numbers seem to back up my feelings.

Anyway, I thought it was an interesting read, and I think I even understood it.

Clickity

So, what do you guys think?
nephillymike
There is definitely a correlation but a correlation of approx .4 isn't huge.

Looked at it another way, the Eagles have 1.59% of injuries to the opposition versus a league wide average of 1.04.

Since the high number for the Eagles is in the average, take them out and it brings the average down to about 1.00

So we get .6% more injuries against us than average.

If we get 1000 offensive plays a year, the average would be 1% of that or 10 per year.

Our opponents rate would be 1.6% or 16.

While it is a 60% increase in occurrence rate, it is only an increase of 6 in number of occurrences.

So over the course of a year, our opponents are injured 6 times more than average?

That's believable.

So they faked 6 injuries per year against us? Sounds a little low. My guess would have been at least 10.

But the data does confirm our suspicions.

Good stuff.
samaroo
There's a part II of the article that goes into some more analysis, and it looks like there is a correlation between offensive plays run and defensive injuries. I'm not thinking conspiracy, and I know it's a tactic (players have admitted as much) but when it's mathematically shown to happen, it makes you wonder about how to stop it.

The writer also offers some suggestions for stemming this trend, with I think the best one being that an injured player has to sit out one possession instead of one play. That should give teams pause before they fake a cramp to slow a team down.

Unrelatedly, did you guys hear about the Colts proposing a 9 point play? TD (6) plus a successful 2 pt conversion gets you a 50 yd FG try for 1 more point. What?!?
nephillymike
QUOTE (samaroo @ Mar 29 2015, 07:58 PM) *
There's a part II of the article that goes into some more analysis, and it looks like there is a correlation between offensive plays run and defensive injuries. I'm not thinking conspiracy, and I know it's a tactic (players have admitted as much) but when it's mathematically shown to happen, it makes you wonder about how to stop it.

The writer also offers some suggestions for stemming this trend, with I think the best one being that an injured player has to sit out one possession instead of one play. That should give teams pause before they fake a cramp to slow a team down.

Unrelatedly, did you guys hear about the Colts proposing a 9 point play? TD (6) plus a successful 2 pt conversion gets you a 50 yd FG try for 1 more point. What?!?


Good idea about sitting out a series of plays.

Yeah I did hear about that 9 point play. Too Arena footballish for me.
Eyrie
I liked the old NFL Europe rule that a 50+ yard FG was worth 4 points rather than 3.

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