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Full Version: A Closer Look at the P. King "Offered" Trade for Mariota
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nephillymike
P. King mentions a trade rumor of two 1sts, a 2nd and a 4th to move up from #20 to #5 to get Mariota, with it being a 1st and 2nd this year and a 1st and 4th next year.

http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2015/2/...iota-peter-king

On the trade chart, Wash would be getting a 442 point premium on the deal, which would equate to the value of the 46th pick which is a mid 2nd round pick. Not an outrageous premium, but a decent incentive for them to do the deal.

So we know we would definitely be giving up #20 and #52 this year.
If we assume we will be around the same drafting position next year, we would be giving up another #20 plus a #116.

Based on history, is that good, bad or indifferent?

To figure it out, I looked at Eagles drafts from 2000-2014, which is 15 years of drafting, and I expanded the range +/- 5 spots from the picks above and made a list of everyone the Eagles drafted from #15-#25, #47-57 and #111-121 for those 15 years. The thought was it would give us a fair sample of what we could expect to be giving up based on history. I thought the =/- 5 slots was reasonable given if we did get Mariota, he would unlikely to be a huge upgrade year one given his rookie status. +/- 5 slots probably gives us a range of 8-8-10-6, which is reasonable IMO.

So ranked in my order of best to worst, here are the 5 1st round picks, 6 2nd round picks and 5 4th round picks that fall within the ranges above.

1st round (#15-#25) - Maclin, Andrews, McDougle, Mitchell, Watkins
2nd Round (#47-#57) - McCoy, D. Jackson, Laws, Jarrett, Abamiri, Caver
4th Round (#111-#121) - Buckhalter, Demps, C. Matthews, A. Henery, K. Clayton

So we need combos of two 1sts, one 2nd and one 4th. Here are 7 scenarios, best to worst to give you a feel and my opinion as to whether or not I would trade for Mariota knowing I was giving up these players:

1. Maclin, Andrews, McCoy, Buckhalter = NO
2. Maclin, McDougle, Jackson, Buckhalter = NO
3. Andrews, McDougle, Laws, Demps = YES
4. Andrews, Mitchell, Jarrett, Matthews = YES
5. McDougle, Mitchell, Abimirri, Henery = YES
6. McDougle, Watkins, Caver, Clayton = YES
7. Mitchell, Watkins, Caver, Clayton = YES

Based on the history of what we would be giving up, I get 5 of 7 to make the trade. That's a pretty strong endorsement.

So far great news for the trade enthusiasts.

However. Not so fast.

We need to consider what we could be getting. My decisions above are based on my expectation that Mariota will be a franchise QB (one of the top 11 capable of being a big reason for a team's playoff success, see my other post re; QB levels)

So what could we get based on history? Most boards have Mariota ranked in the 3-7 range, so I looked at all drafts since 2000 and listed any QB drafted in that range. There have been seven. In my order from best to worst:

1. Rivers
2. Ryan
3. Sanchez
4. Young
5. Bortles
6. Harrington
7. Leftwich

Given this sample, the median would be something like Sanchez or Young. If I know I'm getting one of them, I would not be interested in doing any of the scenarios above because there is no value to me as what I have, Foles, is likely better than either Sanchez or Young. You may be able to make an argument that the unknown is worth a shot in scenarios 5-7 as we're not giving up anything in the trade and it's worth a shot and we can always keep Foles to mitigate the risk. So with at least 4 of 7 being a "NO", it would give ammo to those against the trade.

Do you think Mariota can be a Rivers or Ryan in this system and Foles can't? If so make the deal.
If you're convinced that the odds are against him playing to Rivers/Ryan level, then pass on the deal.

I don't know if I convinced anyone of anything, nor did I convince myself. I'm still waffling big time. But hopefully it frames what the probabilities of the outcomes could be to make a more informed decision.

The only other thing to add, and it is not insignificant, is that if we don't trade up and stay with Foles, we will have to offer him a contract extension. This would be much more expensive than if we went with the rookie drafted in the fifth slot of the draft. If Foles got Kaepernick's deal, which is not unreasonable and if we want to extend him, his play would have to be good and deserving of the deal, it would cost 39.3 M of Cap over 4 years as compared to 18.7 for Mariota's rookie four year deal. That's $5M more per year of available cap room is very valuable and needs to be put in the equation. $5M of cap space for a player would rank 10th on this year's Eagles roster so it is significant. The 10th best starter is nothing to ignore.
Zero
I still don't think we get a chance at him. Winston to TB, then Mariota to TEN. That said, if they have an active and productive FA period this year, and to a lesser degree next year it will counter the loss picks. Then ... whatever. I just hope whatever they do, it works. wink.gif
nephillymike
An important thing that I thought about afterwards.

As shown above, based on history, there is a 5/7 chance that we should do the deal when judged on what we would be asked to give up.

However, based on the history of the failure of NFL QB's drafted in slots 3-7, there is only a 2/7 shot of us giving .

So to be successful, we need both ends of the deal to work.

Odds of that?

5/7 x 2/7 or 20%. A one in five shot.

Ouch!

In order to be a good deal, we would need to think that Mariota has a 5/7 chance of being successful in our system.

If so, 5/7 x 5/7 = 51%.

Do you think that there's a 5 in 7 shot that Mariota succeeds when the historical rate is 2/7?

I think he probably is.

I can officially give a very luke warm endorsement of trading up, based upon me thinking Mariota is a 5/7 shot. This is for the deal discussed.

If it more than the two 1's a 2 and a 4, then that may change. Also, you need to add in value for the player we can buy with the $5M per year savings by going with the cheaper option in Mariota over a resigned Foles.
Zero
There are supposedly project QBs in this draft that have the basic skills one would be looking for in this offense. Hundley tops the list but after him there's guys like Grayson and Bennett who could be gotten much later and coached up for a couple of years. That would mean going with Foles and extending him. I don't have a problem with Nick if they fix the damn defense.

I'm going to drive around the Northeast shouting "Fix the damn DEFENSE Chip!" laugh.gif
nephillymike
QUOTE (Zero @ Mar 1 2015, 02:01 PM) *
There are supposedly project QBs in this draft that have the basic skills one would be looking for in this offense. Hundley tops the list but after him there's guys like Grayson and Bennett who could be gotten much later and coached up for a couple of years. That would mean going with Foles and extending him. I don't have a problem with Nick if they fix the damn defense.

I'm going to drive around the Northeast shouting "Fix the damn DEFENSE Chip!" laugh.gif


The most important thing is still to be able to accurately throw the ball.

Apparently, Hundley had a really bad combine throwing it, per 97.5 the other day. I didn't see him so I'm not sure but they say he looks like a project
phillyfan4ever
I would love to see MM play in here, however I think that Foles are run the offense, he just can't explode the offense like MM could.



1. Trade for MM COULD make the D look better
2. We keep Foles and don't take MM - the draft should be D heavy with a little O-Line


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