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nephillymike
The problem with this decision is projection. Sounds like common sense but it may get overlooked.

Just as problematic is how to project the Jeckyl/Hyde career of Foles as it is to project Mariota who hasn't thrown an NFL pass.

To try to frame the decision, I grouped this year's NFL QB's into four groups; Hall Of Fame, Franchise, Capable, Unacceptable

The top and bottom categories are self explanatory. The others needs description:

Franchise - A non HOF QB who can be elite some years and is good enough to consistently carry a team in a playoff situation

Capable - a QB who may have a few very good years with some sub par years who may be able to be a big part of a winning team in a playoff situation.

With few exceptions, a team needs to have a HOF or Franchise QB to have a shot at a SB title.

Here's my breakdown:

HOF(4) - Rogers, Brady, P. Manning, Brees
Franchise (7) - Romo, Roeth., Rivers, Luck, Wilson, Flacco, Ryan
Capable (10) - Palmer, Smith, Tannehill, E. Manning, Cutler, Foles, Kaepernick, Stafford, Dalton, Newton
Unacceptable (9) - Fitzpatrick, Orton, Bridgewater, A. Davis, G. Smith, D. Carr, Hoyer, McCown, Bortles

I judge only the results as unacceptable and fully aware that some of the rookies who struggled could elevate their game in the future to move up the ladder.

In Chip's system, I think Foles is and will remain capable. He will likely fluctuate between the #12 and #21 overall, but will not likely ascend to the franchise level. In Chip's system, I think Mariota has a much better chance of becoming a franchise QB. True, his skill set may only make him at that level for our system, and placed in a traditional offense, he may be low end capable, but in ours, he's got a real shot.

So framing it this way, what do you give up for a good shot at moving from the capable to the franchise in the most important position in sports? If you don't think Mariota can upgrade us a level, then nothing. If you do, then how much?

Zero
Regardless of anything the team could offer in the way of trade, do you truly believe they have a chance at getting Mariota?
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE
Capable - a QB who may have a few very good years with some sub par years who may be able to be a big part of a winning team in a playoff situation.


One of your 'capable' QB's has 2 rings by way of Brady, while another went to 3 straight NFCCG's and a Super Bowl in his first 3 years in the league. I know you say 'who may be able to be a big part...' blah blah, but that destroys the whole premise.
nephillymike
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Feb 20 2015, 11:46 AM) *
One of your 'capable' QB's has 2 rings by way of Brady, while another went to 3 straight NFCCG's and a Super Bowl in his first 3 years in the league. I know you say 'who may be able to be a big part...' blah blah, but that destroys the whole premise.



Can't give Kaep credit for being a bench player on the NFCCG loss to NYG

He's had one year as a sub, one as a SB runner up and one as a NFCC runner up.

A hell of a start, but you have to add in this year too. He's on thin ice in SF.

Eli? Never once in all the games we've played him have I EVER been concerned that he was the NYG QB. I always thought that worked to our advantage.

I can't move either of them up to franchise.

Kaep still has time, but not Eli.

So where do you think Foles ranks?
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 20 2015, 07:54 PM) *
So where do you think Foles ranks?


Right now, below both Kaep and Eli. He could be a franchise QB, but that remains to be seen. The whole context of your post is going all-in for Mariota, which I'll never agree with until he brings home a Super Bowl trophy. I just think it's obvious we're going absolutely nowhere without a good defense. Chip's decision making last year has really soured me, I'm beginning to think we're headed towards years of misery while he goes back to college.
nephillymike
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Feb 20 2015, 08:33 PM) *
Right now, below both Kaep and Eli. He could be a franchise QB, but that remains to be seen. The whole context of your post is going all-in for Mariota, which I'll never agree with until he brings home a Super Bowl trophy. I just think it's obvious we're going absolutely nowhere without a good defense. Chip's decision making last year has really soured me, I'm beginning to think we're headed towards years of misery while he goes back to college.



Yeah, you really have soured on Chip. Your posts scream that fact.

I have concerns too. But you seem to be done with him.

My concern is draft day manuevering, not getting Mariota so much as not being able to draft the guys in the right round.

However, I share his opinion that NFL draft picks are the most overvalued assets in all of sports. There's a plethora of data to support that.

The guy has gone against the NFL grain since he's been here. He just won 10 games, four with a backup that nobody wanted who never played in a similary system with a defensive backfield that led the league in suckitude, an oft injured OL and if not for a scheduling difference, he would have gotten that team in the playoffs.

I think he deserves more credit than you give him. His offense was near the top both years and if his QB will make that much of a difference, and I'm giving up crapshoots, so be it. We have the cap money, float this year's draft in Free agency.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE
I have concerns too. But you seem to be done with him.


Not at all. I'm just at the point where I was with Reid after getting embarassed by Jon Gruden 16-0 at home to open the 2003 season, following the NFCCG disaster against the same team. (More than one similarity there, both considered 'genius' hires who surpassed immediate expectations, and both released All-Pro players seemingly out of sheer hubris). I'm starting to think his flaws and arrogance will prevent him from ever getting us a Lombardi trophy. McNabb and JJ covered up for Reid for a further 6 years before I was fully ready to run him out of town - but here we have a questionable QB and a bad defense, and I could very well be ready to fire his ass after next season - going all in for Mariota will compound that unless there's success next year.

QUOTE
However, I share his opinion that NFL draft picks are the most overvalued assets in all of sports. There's a plethora of data to support that.


This is exactly what I'm talking about - the 'I'm smarter than everyone else in the sport' mentality. His comment comparing a first round pick to a college graduate going to work at Wells Fargo?!?!? Seriously?! He can fall asleep at the combine all he wants if he doesn't repeat last year's abysmal draft. Picks can be overrated, if you know what the fuck you're doing.

QUOTE
He just won 10 games


We were 9-3, with you hoping for a #1 seed. He went 1-3 when it mattered, the one win being meaningless apart from bragging to friends of ours who root for NY. Every top team we faced beat us. And stop calling Sanchez a backup, he's started 76 games in 5 seasons including 6 in the postseason. When The Genius wins with Barkley, I'll suck his dick.

QUOTE
I think he deserves more credit than you give him. His offense was near the top both years and if his QB will make that much of a difference, and I'm giving up crapshoots, so be it.


His offense is fun, and we put up points - fast. And our crappy defense has been on the field both years for more time than any other team in football. It doesn't take a 'genius' (or apparently, it does) to realize that a crappy secondary on the field for almost 40 minutes a game is going to be abused, and by the end of the season completely gassed. And when that suggestion is brought to his attention, we get a snarky and condescending answer.

Look man, the life has just been sucked out of me. Blame it on the Reid era if you want, blame it on having to argue with legions of idiot fanboys who were putting 'faith' in making Juan Castillo DC, or drafting Marcus Smith, or releasing DJax, or whatever. I'm finished putting blind faith in people when they make blatantly stupid decisions.
nephillymike
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Feb 21 2015, 11:31 AM) *
Not at all. I'm just at the point where I was with Reid after getting embarassed by Jon Gruden 16-0 at home to open the 2003 season, following the NFCCG disaster against the same team. (More than one similarity there, both considered 'genius' hires who surpassed immediate expectations, and both released All-Pro players seemingly out of sheer hubris). I'm starting to think his flaws and arrogance will prevent him from ever getting us a Lombardi trophy. McNabb and JJ covered up for Reid for a further 6 years before I was fully ready to run him out of town - but here we have a questionable QB and a bad defense, and I could very well be ready to fire his ass after next season - going all in for Mariota will compound that unless there's success next year.



This is exactly what I'm talking about - the 'I'm smarter than everyone else in the sport' mentality. His comment comparing a first round pick to a college graduate going to work at Wells Fargo?!?!? Seriously?! He can fall asleep at the combine all he wants if he doesn't repeat last year's abysmal draft. Picks can be overrated, if you know what the fuck you're doing.



We were 9-3, with you hoping for a #1 seed. He went 1-3 when it mattered, the one win being meaningless apart from bragging to friends of ours who root for NY. Every top team we faced beat us. And stop calling Sanchez a backup, he's started 76 games in 5 seasons including 6 in the postseason. When The Genius wins with Barkley, I'll suck his dick.



His offense is fun, and we put up points - fast. And our crappy defense has been on the field both years for more time than any other team in football. It doesn't take a 'genius' (or apparently, it does) to realize that a crappy secondary on the field for almost 40 minutes a game is going to be abused, and by the end of the season completely gassed. And when that suggestion is brought to his attention, we get a snarky and condescending answer.

Look man, the life has just been sucked out of me. Blame it on the Reid era if you want, blame it on having to argue with legions of idiot fanboys who were putting 'faith' in making Juan Castillo DC, or drafting Marcus Smith, or releasing DJax, or whatever. I'm finished putting blind faith in people when they make blatantly stupid decisions.

Man HOP. I don't know how old you are but you sound more bitter than this 50 year old who's been through the ringer year after year after year!!
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 21 2015, 12:21 PM) *
Man HOP. I don't know how old you are but you sound more bitter than this 50 year old who's been through the ringer year after year after year!!


I know pal - the opposite I would say of you, you must be a motivational speaker or something. How you can be so optimistic year after year is beyond me.

I'm 33 by the way. By time I'm 50 I could very well be worse than a Cleveland sports fan.
nephillymike
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Feb 21 2015, 01:05 PM) *
I know pal - the opposite I would say of you, you must be a motivational speaker or something. How you can be so optimistic year after year is beyond me.

I'm 33 by the way. By time I'm 50 I could very well be worse than a Cleveland sports fan.



That may be the first time in my board career that I've been called optimistic!!

My "axis member" status required a sarcastic critical tone from early on.

Now Eyrie and Z, they were more the "mousekateerish" in their views from way back. Eyrie has since come over to the "axis" side but Z is still a glass half full type and he's got more years of disappointment on his resume than me, if you know what I mean!
Phits
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Feb 21 2015, 11:31 AM) *
We were 9-3, with you hoping for a #1 seed. He went 1-3 when it mattered, the one win being meaningless apart from bragging to friends of ours who root for NY. Every top team we faced beat us. And stop calling Sanchez a backup, he's started 76 games in 5 seasons including 6 in the postseason.

huh.gif I see, so because Sanchez has NFL experience as a starter he will remain a starter for the duration of his career? Perhaps they can label his role as the second starter?

QUOTE
I'm finished putting blind faith in people when they make blatantly stupid decisions.

What you actually mean is that you are finished putting your faith in people that find ways to do things that differ from how you would do it. Forget the fact that they have some accomplishment just by making it to the pros.

if you listen to the fans you'll be sitting with them
Eyrie
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 21 2015, 09:16 PM) *
That may be the first time in my board career that I've been called optimistic!!

My "axis member" status required a sarcastic critical tone from early on.

Now Eyrie and Z, they were more the "mousekateerish" in their views from way back. Eyrie has since come over to the "axis" side but Z is still a glass half full type and he's got more years of disappointment on his resume than me, if you know what I mean!

I only went Axis when I soured on Reid mad.gif

Currently I'd say I'm supportive of Kelly because of his offense and fixing STs, but he now has to fix the defence (ie devote the right resources in FA and the draft) and not do stupid things in the draft. Smith's inability to even get on the field is an issue.

So if Kelly gets this offseason wrong then I'll be Axis, if he gets it right then I can dig the mousketeers out.

Zero has always been Optimystic - must be Stolkholm syndrome ph34r.gif
Zero
QUOTE (Eyrie @ Feb 22 2015, 05:44 AM) *
Zero has always been Optimystic - must be Stolkholm syndrome ph34r.gif

No doubt. I am a willing captive continually craning my neck to find the good in my captors even though my friend Opti hasn't been seen lately.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (Eyrie @ Feb 22 2015, 05:44 AM) *
Zero has always been Optimystic - must be Stolkholm syndrome ph34r.gif


Being a Philly sports fan is perpetual Stockholm Syndrome. It's just that some of us choose only to patronize and take an interest in our captors, while others are madly in love with our captors.
Zero
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Feb 22 2015, 11:46 AM) *
Being a Philly sports fan is perpetual Stockholm Syndrome. It's just that some of us choose only to patronize and take an interest in our captors, while others are madly in love with our captors.

Speaking only for myself, it's not a love affair at all. I just find it more enjoyable to be optimistic than trying to control something I can't or to react like I have any input at all. I do enough of that during games, in the off season they're always going to be great. bowdown.gif
samaroo
This thread is full of win.
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