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nephillymike
In my humble opinion, there is not one team in the NFL that would be able to do all three of the following in a row:

1. Win a road game @ DAL on Thanksgiving
2. Win a home game vs. the 8-4 SB champs who are on a roll
3. Win a home game vs. DAL after we played a bruising games vs. SEA and they won the game before and had ten days to prepare.

So being realistic, I say the Eagles can't either.

That being the case and since we already accomplished #1:

Which you rather us do: Beat SEA or Beat DAL.

Now nobody here hates DAL more than I, but after some analysis, I think we're better off if we beat SEA.

Why?

Beating SEA, would give us the tie breaker on them, and would give us a two game lead on them and the tiebreaker at 10 wins to eight. Then if SEA wins the West, they would be the number three seed and would have to come here for a second round game should they beat the sixth seed. While I wouldn't relish a revenge game against them, I like our odds in that better than our revenge game going to them if they're #2 and us #3.

Would losing to DAL after a SEA win severely jeopardize our chances of a division?

No it shouldn't. The division tiebreakers are:
1. Head to Head
2. Division record
3. Common Games
4. Conference record.

We'd both be 9-4 and if we both won out, we'd both finish 12-4 with ties for H2H, but we'd have the better division record.

If we both lost a game, presumably them to Indy and us to either NYG or WAS, we'd both be 11-5, tied on H2H and division. But we'd have a 10-4 common opponent and they'd have a 9-5. We'd win the division. I don't see how it would get this far, but the next tiebreaker is conference record and if we both lose one more, us to NY or WAS them to INdy, our conf record would be 7-5 to their 8-4 but I don't think that will factor in but maybe someone else's fresh eyes can find a way for that to play in the equation. It may be possible.

As much as it pains me to say it, I think beating SEA and losing to DAL is the lesser of the two evils.

FWIW, our playoff seedings probabilities:

#1 24%
#2 32%
#3 33%
#4 0%
#5 2%
#6 3%
Miss 6%

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
Phits
I would prefer winning the division game(s). Beating Dallas would all but guarantee the division title and a home playoff game.

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Dec 5 2014, 11:39 PM) *
In my humble opinion, there is not one team in the NFL that would be able to do all three of the following in a row:

1. Win a road game @ DAL on Thanksgiving
2. Win a home game vs. the 8-4 SB champs who are on a roll
3. Win a home game vs. DAL after we played a bruising games vs. SEA and they won the game before and had ten days to prepare.

So being realistic, I say the Eagles can't either.

That being the case and since we already accomplished #1:

Which you rather us do: Beat SEA or Beat DAL.

Now nobody here hates DAL more than I, but after some analysis, I think we're better off if we beat SEA.

Why?

Beating SEA, would give us the tie breaker on them, and would give us a two game lead on them and the tiebreaker at 10 wins to eight. Then if SEA wins the West, they would be the number three seed and would have to come here for a second round game should they beat the sixth seed. While I wouldn't relish a revenge game against them, I like our odds in that better than our revenge game going to them if they're #2 and us #3.

Would losing to DAL after a SEA win severely jeopardize our chances of a division?

No it shouldn't. The division tiebreakers are:
1. Head to Head
2. Division record
3. Common Games
4. Conference record.

We'd both be 9-4 and if we both won out, we'd both finish 12-4 with ties for H2H, but we'd have the better division record.

If we both lost a game, presumably them to Indy and us to either NYG or WAS, we'd both be 11-5, tied on H2H and division. But we'd have a 10-4 common opponent and they'd have a 9-5. We'd win the division. I don't see how it would get this far, but the next tiebreaker is conference record and if we both lose one more, us to NY or WAS them to INdy, our conf record would be 7-5 to their 8-4 but I don't think that will factor in but maybe someone else's fresh eyes can find a way for that to play in the equation. It may be possible.

As much as it pains me to say it, I think beating SEA and losing to DAL is the lesser of the two evils.

FWIW, our playoff seedings probabilities:

#1 24%
#2 32%
#3 33%
#4 0%
#5 2%
#6 3%
Miss 6%

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

Zero
I understand your question, but I'd rather win them both.
Eyrie
I understand the logic in the opening post, but agree with Zero.

Seattle tomorrow will be very tough, but they are beatable. On the other hand I'd expect us to win the home game against the Cowboys, maybe not as convincingly as we won on Thanksgiving, but we should win it. So I'll pick a win tomorrow and let the next game take care of itself.
HOUSEoPAIN
How about worry about winning tomorrow, and then worry about Dallas?
nephillymike
You guys avoided the question!

I understand contemplating any loss is unpleasant, but I ask the tough questions to get a tough answer.

Yellow, all of yuse!
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Dec 6 2014, 03:16 PM) *
You guys avoided the question!


I heard that if they beat Seattle, they have a 75% chance of getting a first round bye. If they lose, they have a 19% chance of a bye. I don't know how accurate it is, but it seems reasonable to me considering the standings and tiebreaker scenarios. So obviously if I had to pick a damn game, I'd pick tomorrow as a win.

Happy now?
nephillymike
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Dec 6 2014, 03:38 PM) *
I heard that if they beat Seattle, they have a 75% chance of getting a first round bye. If they lose, they have a 19% chance of a bye. I don't know how accurate it is, but it seems reasonable to me considering the standings and tiebreaker scenarios. So obviously if I had to pick a damn game, I'd pick tomorrow as a win.

Happy now?



Yes.

I heard that too. I hereby remove the yellow tag!
make_it_rain
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Dec 6 2014, 04:38 PM) *
I heard that if they beat Seattle, they have a 75% chance of getting a first round bye. If they lose, they have a 19% chance of a bye. I don't know how accurate it is, but it seems reasonable to me considering the standings and tiebreaker scenarios. So obviously if I had to pick a damn game, I'd pick tomorrow as a win.

Happy now?


You're correct. Each week fivethirtyeight has a nifty little tool where you can click a team in the grid and see how the current game affects their chances at a bye, playoff spot, division title, etc. Currently the probability of a bye is 48%, it goes to 74% with a win and 19% with a loss, lol.

Playoff Implications
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (make_it_rain @ Dec 6 2014, 04:35 PM) *
You're correct. Each week fivethirtyeight has a nifty little tool where you can click a team in the grid and see how the current game affects their chances at a bye, playoff spot, division title, etc. Currently the probability of a bye is 48%, it goes to 74% with a win and 19% with a loss, lol.

Playoff Implications


Interesting tool. Obviously the percentages are based on assumptions of remaining games, I wonder if it's simple current betting lines they use or an in-depth analysis of each game based on different stat categories?
md717
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Dec 5 2014, 11:39 PM) *
In my humble opinion, there is not one team in the NFL that would be able to do all three of the following in a row:

1. Win a road game @ DAL on Thanksgiving
2. Win a home game vs. the 8-4 SB champs who are on a roll
3. Win a home game vs. DAL after we played a bruising games vs. SEA and they won the game before and had ten days to prepare.

So being realistic, I say the Eagles can't either.

That being the case and since we already accomplished #1:

Which you rather us do: Beat SEA or Beat DAL.

Now nobody here hates DAL more than I, but after some analysis, I think we're better off if we beat SEA.

Why?

Beating SEA, would give us the tie breaker on them, and would give us a two game lead on them and the tiebreaker at 10 wins to eight. Then if SEA wins the West, they would be the number three seed and would have to come here for a second round game should they beat the sixth seed. While I wouldn't relish a revenge game against them, I like our odds in that better than our revenge game going to them if they're #2 and us #3.

Would losing to DAL after a SEA win severely jeopardize our chances of a division?

No it shouldn't. The division tiebreakers are:
1. Head to Head
2. Division record
3. Common Games
4. Conference record.

We'd both be 9-4 and if we both won out, we'd both finish 12-4 with ties for H2H, but we'd have the better division record.

If we both lost a game, presumably them to Indy and us to either NYG or WAS, we'd both be 11-5, tied on H2H and division. But we'd have a 10-4 common opponent and they'd have a 9-5. We'd win the division. I don't see how it would get this far, but the next tiebreaker is conference record and if we both lose one more, us to NY or WAS them to INdy, our conf record would be 7-5 to their 8-4 but I don't think that will factor in but maybe someone else's fresh eyes can find a way for that to play in the equation. It may be possible.

As much as it pains me to say it, I think beating SEA and losing to DAL is the lesser of the two evils.

FWIW, our playoff seedings probabilities:

#1 24%
#2 32%
#3 33%
#4 0%
#5 2%
#6 3%
Miss 6%

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
We're going to beat SEA and DAL. One week at a time. After our victory this afternoon, it's still 50/50 when Dallas comes to town next week.
Dreagon
If you beat Seattle, then even if you lose to us next week we would still be tied...with you guys having the tie breakers and us still having to face Indy and Washington (who already beat us once) If you beat Seattle and then us, you are in a commanding position for division champion with only two games left against 3-9 opponents.

If you lose to Seattle, then your game against us becomes much more crucial because losing against us too would put you in a hole, and those last 3-9 opponents are also NFC East rivals and we know how flaky the odds are in those games.

So for you guys, beating Seattle is very important right now and y'all should probably not worry about next week till next week.
Eyrie
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Dec 6 2014, 08:16 PM) *
You guys avoided the question!

I understand contemplating any loss is unpleasant, but I ask the tough questions to get a tough answer.

Yellow, all of yuse!

You got one!

I picked the win this evening.
Zero
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Dec 6 2014, 03:16 PM) *
You guys avoided the question!

I understand contemplating any loss is unpleasant, but I ask the tough questions to get a tough answer.

Yellow, all of yuse!

That's a disparaging remark - calling people yellow is not PC. Now I'm all depressed. My feelings are hurt. I'll have to apply for disability. laugh.gif

Fuck Dallas! We'll deal with them next week. Beat the damn Seahawks! Keep this bus moving. Still not the answer to your question but that's all you get from feeble minds on disability.
Eyrie
QUOTE (Eyrie @ Dec 7 2014, 11:05 AM) *
You got one!

I picked the win this evening.

sad.gif

On second thoughts, I'd prefer a win against the Cowboys anyway.
HOUSEoPAIN
With Arizona winning last night, it's looking like division or bust. An 11-5 record wont be enough to get the wild card with us losing all the tiebreakers (barring a monumental collapse by Detroit). Sunday is must-win.
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