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nephillymike
With the blowout last week, opinions of the Eagles vary from the chicken littles, to the I told you so's, to the don't worry be happy segments.

With that in mind, I ask for the temperature of the board.

I list four outcomes of the Eagles season. For this exercise, assume that Foles is cleared to play the last regular season game if that matters to you. Assign the % chances based on your expectations for the Eagles season. It attempts to quantify the confidence, bitching and worry that we've heard all week.

Percentage Chance that the Eagles Will:

Not Make the Playoffs
Lose in the Wild Card Round
Lose in the Divisional Round
Make it to the Conference Finals or Further

They need to add up to 100%

I'll start:

Not Make the Playoffs = 25%
Lose in the Wild Card Round = 50%
Lose in the Divisional Round = 15%
Make it to the Conference Finals or Further = 10%

The odds of not making the playoffs of 25% is a tough one. The way the schedule breaks down, the Eagles have the tougher road to win the division than Dallas. They play us at home on a short week, and have ten days off before they come to us and we need to play Seattle the week before them. Winning both of those games is a long shot. Splitting is likely. Us playing a back to the wall Seattle in the sandwich game is more difficult than their sandwich game vs a Chi team that quit weeks ago. Their Indy game at home is tougher than our home against Tenn. The other four game are the same. We are playing without our starting QB. That adds up to a slight Dallas advantage.

If we go into the wild card pool at 10-6 or 11-5, we may have tough tiebreakers after losses to GB, SF and ARI.

I think if Sanchez plays at an average to slightly above average level which I think he will, we will get to 11 wins and that will get us a spot in the dance.

That being said, I place our chances at 75% of getting a playoff spot.

The weakness in the secondary and the seeming incompetence of our free agent, 3rd down CB and drafted CB's to be viable options is very concerning and I think will be the death of the season. C. Matthews and Acho have held their own, which is good, but I worry about the smaller frames against Murray twice, Beast and Morris. I think we'll be ready for Foles and his better arsenal by his return but it will only reap dividends if he avoids the turnovers.

The 10% shot? It's a punchers chance. If our OL kicks into gear opening holes for Shady, and our D can regain the pressure on the QB, and Chip uses his weapons to the best of their ability, and Sanchez avoids going Sanchez on us and plays decent till we get there and Foles comes back not as the Foles of 2014, we have a shot. Too many ifs for much more than a 10% shot. If we have to play GB to get to the NFCCG, forgettaboutit.

And your opinion is? And please, don't hedge. Put you number up there!!
mcnabbulous
I'll play:

10%
25%
60%
5%
nephillymike
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Nov 22 2014, 09:34 PM) *
I'll play:

10%
25%
60%
5%



Why do you think we only have a punchers chance of not making the playoffs?
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Nov 22 2014, 10:24 PM) *
Why do you think we only have a punchers chance of not making the playoffs?

I think we're better than Dallas and that will prove itself as the season continues.

I do hate having to travel there on a short week. That's probably not in our favor.
nephillymike
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Nov 22 2014, 11:53 PM) *
I think we're better than Dallas and that will prove itself as the season continues.

I do hate having to travel there on a short week. That's probably not in our favor.


That's the thing. Tough winning on the road on a Thursday. That's probably a loss.

We then have Seattle, much tougher than Chicago. Dal has 10 days to prepare for us a week after we play SEA.

That's really difficult to go 2-1 in that stretch.

We may be a better team, but the schedule makes it very difficult to prove it.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Nov 22 2014, 11:04 PM) *
That's the thing. Tough winning on the road on a Thursday. That's probably a loss.

It definitely doesn't feel like a win on paper.

QUOTE
We then have Seattle, much tougher than Chicago. Dal has 10 days to prepare for us a week after we play SEA.

That's really difficult to go 2-1 in that stretch.

We may be a better team, but the schedule makes it very difficult to prove it.

But using the same logic, we have 10 days to prepare for Seattle and they have to travel across the country. Hosting Sea vs. Dallas traveling to Chi is pretty much a wash.

I also don't see us losing to Dallas at home. I don't see Garrett beating Chip twice in 3 weeks.
HOUSEoPAIN
25%
55%
15%
5%

It looks like there will definitely be a couple 10-6 teams as the odd men out. 11 wins will be needed to guarantee a playoff spot IMO, especially since we will most likely lose tiebreakers against all other playoff bound teams (assuming we lose to Seattle). If we beat Seattle we can pretty much assume a playoff berth of course.

I don't think there's any way Dallas gets fewer than 11 wins, so assuming we both make it, we'll likely be playing each other in the first round. Based on my assumptions they get the home game, so I give them the edge. If we get a home playoff game those numbers change, so I just put them up there for shits and giggles.

HOUSEoPAIN
I thought for a sec the Redskins would pull that out, greatly helping our chances of getting a top seed. Oh well.

Did anyone catch the Cle-Atl game at all? I watched the last couple minutes of both halves, that was the most disgusting display of coaching and clock management by both teams I think I've ever seen. Both teams deserved to lose.

How about the AFC playoff picture? What a mess.

nephillymike
RGIII is so done.

Unbelievable.

A Skins win there would have really helped.

HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Nov 23 2014, 07:46 PM) *
RGIII is so done.

Unbelievable.

A Skins win there would have really helped.


NO obviously has talent and can turn it on at times, especially at home. But if they lose to Baltimore tonight, we have a really good chance of ending up with a 6-10 division winner. What a disgrace that would be.
make_it_rain
Not make playoffs: 30%
Lose in WC round: 30%
Lose in divisional: 32%
Conference Championship+ : 8%

I checked one of those simulation based playoff probability sites and it mentioned we have apprx 74% chance of making the playoffs at this point, so I think mike's initial assessment of 25% chance isn't too far off.

That being said, I tend to fall on the pessimistic side of things with this team, so in my eyes the chances of missing out are a bit higher, so I went 30%, because we basically lose every wildcard tiebreaker, and if we lose to Seattle then the wildcard is more or less dead unless they finish with a superior record (in which case we would likely win the division anyway). So it looks like its going to have to be division winner or nothing.

I think there's actually a decent chance they can win a wild card game though, because if the only way in as a division winner, that means we'll be hosting it, and I think the most likely wildcard opponents (Detroit, SF, Seattle) are all beatable at the Linc.

I dont like their chances on the road in a divisional game, unless by some chance Arizona or Dallas ends up with a bye and we get paired with them due to seeding. So I think if they get in, its slightly more likely that the divisional round is the end of the road.

I gave conference championships+ an 8% chance because weird stuff can happen once you're in....maybe turnovers or balls bounce your way, QBs/Defense go God Mode, or other randomness. See Giants, New York as an example.

Dreagon
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Nov 22 2014, 10:53 PM) *
I do hate having to travel there on a short week. That's probably not in our favor.



Actually, you're a lot better off facing us in JerryWorld. We have no home field advantage, and are only .500 there. We play like gangbusters on the road.
Eyrie
QUOTE (Dreagon @ Nov 24 2014, 10:53 PM) *
Actually, you're a lot better off facing us in JerryWorld. We have no home field advantage, and are only .500 there. We play like gangbusters on the road.

We'll get a preview of any potential post-season meeting on Thursday.

Wouldn't surprise me if Seattle and San Francisco split their series and the NFC East gets a wild card.
Dreagon
QUOTE (Eyrie @ Nov 25 2014, 02:03 PM) *
Wouldn't surprise me if Seattle and San Francisco split their series and the NFC East gets a wild card.


Considering we have two games against each other, and still other divisional games yet to go, I'll take all the help we can get.
Eyrie
QUOTE (Dreagon @ Nov 25 2014, 11:14 PM) *
Considering we have two games against each other, and still other divisional games yet to go, I'll take all the help we can get.

Look on the bright side - being the fifth seed is very possible for whichever of us doesn't win the division and that means a trip to the NFC South winners, which is a de facto bye week.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (Eyrie @ Nov 26 2014, 02:56 PM) *
and that means a trip to the NFC South winners, which is a de facto bye week.


*sigh*

Please don't say shit like that. You've been a fan long enough to know better. sad.gif
Eyrie
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Nov 27 2014, 12:07 AM) *
*sigh*

Please don't say shit like that. You've been a fan long enough to know better. sad.gif

If you could pick a playoff opponent, then that would be the one. Being the third seed may well mean a game against the 49ers or Seattle.
mcnabbulous
0
0
40
60
nephillymike
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Nov 27 2014, 06:57 PM) *
0
0
40
60

I like it!
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (Eyrie @ Nov 27 2014, 01:59 PM) *
If you could pick a playoff opponent, then that would be the one. Being the third seed may well mean a game against the 49ers or Seattle.


Yeah I know. But don't refer to a game in New Orleans as a 'de facto bye week.' I did that once before a game against Tampa at home.

Eyrie
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Nov 28 2014, 04:49 AM) *
Yeah I know. But don't refer to a game in New Orleans as a 'de facto bye week.' I did that once before a game against Tampa at home.

Thank you for the memory of THAT game mad.gif
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