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nephillymike
I took a look deep inside the numbers for tomorrrow's game, trying to see why we would be such a decided underdog of 5 to 6 points, when we are 3-0 and they're 1-2.

What does Vegas know that normal folk don't?

There is the ebb and flow of the NFL that says a desperate team will play better than a comfortable team, especially when that game is at the desperate team's field and when that field is 3000 miles away.

But that doesn't feel completely right, especially when you think the Eagles may get some of the public money because of their big visible wins lately. That would take a even matchup SF-3, down to maybe SF-2.

Why the -5? Even with the desperation factor, it seems a tad high?

When you compare how SF has fared in point differential for their games, versus how the teams they played did against the other games against teams other than SF, you see that even though SF is 1-2, they actually average 4 points better is point differential than the other teams have done against the teams SF has played this year.

Team..............Pt Diff vs. SF.........Vs Others Per Game......Diff
@ DAL..............(11)...............................+9.5................+20.5
vs. CHI.............+8.................................+2.5.................(5.5)
@ ARI...............+9.................................+6.0.................(3.0)
Total.............................................................................+12
Per Game (/3)...............................................................+4.0

Now how about the Eagles?

Team..............Pt Diff vs. PHI.........Vs Others Per Game......Diff
vs JAC...............(17)................................(29)...............(12.0)
@IND................(3).................................+10................+13.0
vs. WAS.............(3).................................(3.7)................(0.7)
Total..............................................................................+0.3
Per Game (/3)................................................................+0.1

That makes it SF -4, add 3 for HF is SF-7, then lower it for the popular pick off the Eagles to -5.

As for efficiency stats. opponents run it at 3.8 ypc vs SF and throw it at a 92.2 passer rating.
We run it at 3.8 ypc and throw it at a 95.5 rating.

It would seem the air is the way we'll have to beat them.

SF runs it at a 4.2 ypc and throws it at a 92.2 passer rating.
We defend the run at 3.5 ypc and give up a 94.9 passer rating (see Williams, Sconces)

It would seem that the air is how you beat us.

So it looks like the same stats basically, the same emphasis, with theirs coming against better competition, with ours coming away with two more wins.

I think our ST's could really help us out.

One thing that the stats doesn't show is how many points we left on the field. More than a few times, Foles has missed TD opportunities. Most teams miss first down passes or drive continuing passes. This year, there have been plenty of TD's there we didn't hit on. Our offense would be lethal had he hit them. Foles seemed to turn the page and if he hits them like he can, the league is in deep shit.

On one hand, I think the 49ers are about to implode, and hopefully the confusion and exhaustion of playing against our offense will be the thing that ignites that. Problem is, playing against our D is the perfect anecdote to that implosion. It will be interesting if Chip pulls some weird shit out for this game and they're confused and pointing fingers of blame. Also of interest will be our second half dominance vs their 2nd half ineptitude. If we put the pressure on, it will be interesting to see if they fold.

In the end for me, I see the desperate team, playing against Molk, Kelly and Matthews/Acho/Smith being too much of a hurdle. If Foles plays his A game and we get +2 in turnover differential and some great ST play, that could overcome our other shortcomings.

Here's hoping I'm completely wrong:

49ers 34
Eagles 24
Dreagon
I think you guys have a better chance than you think. SF is 1-2 and their one victory came against us...and we practically handed them fourteen points. We outpassed them and outrushed them, but we couldn't overcome the headstart we game them. Murray averaged 5.4 yards a carry against them.

They are dangerous, but they are NOT as good as they used to be.
make_it_rain
Not so bold prediction: We get completely jobbed by Ed Hochuli and team this afternoon.

Feeling pretty sure this is an L, but as demonstrated I am a complete mush when it comes to picking games so maybe this is a cause for optimism.
koolaidluke
QUOTE (make_it_rain @ Sep 28 2014, 11:10 AM) *
Feeling pretty sure this is an L, but as demonstrated I am a complete mush when it comes to picking games so maybe this is a cause for optimism.


I think that on paper this is a 9ers win, but my gut says the Eagles. I never trust my gut so I'm officially going with the 9ers.
nephillymike
Expecting a loss and not an all that close one allows me to watch this game with house money.

Low expectations, and a win or tight game is upside.

BTW, had they won last week and we lost vs WAS and had 2 of Mathis, Kelce or Kendricks playing, then I would expect a win today. My prediction is not an indictment of our team, just of a bad spot in the ebb and flow of the season.
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