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xsv
Had to do this a day early, becuase I'll be at the game on Sunday.

I'm using the same strategy this week. Here's my bets...


5 Game Parlay

Bengals at Bears Over 38.5
Chiefs +3 at Broncos
Cowboys -6.5 at 49ers
Jaguars at Jets Over 33.5
Panthers(Carolina)
Dolphins at Panthers -3

And I backed that up with a 2 game parlay
Bengals at Bears Over 38.5
Chiefs+3 at Broncos

Honestly, I have no idea how in the heck KC is a 3 point dog. I think it's actually good getting in on that game early, becuase I think the line will drop as the action heats up on Sunday.

Thoughts?
md717
If you win your 5-game parlay I'll increase your winnings by $20.

cool.gif
xsv
Yeah, I know the odds are stacked, but if I could win one of those the entire year, I'm happy.

I really like that you can mix and match the the points and over/under. I think my 5 game parley this week is much more realistic than last week.
md717
You'll get poor in a hurry on that strategy -- you might win ONE of those in a season, and even that is way ahead of the odds.
J_Cuz
Denver holds the best home record in the NFL over the past ten years at 63-18 78%.

Vegas says that's worth the typical 3 point home advantage.

Given that Kansas City is second best at home during those same ten years the spread would be about 3 points the other way if played in KC.

Since it's a division rivalry I wouldn't expect that line to move too much.

I like the over in the Minny/New Orleans game.
md717
How'd we make out here, x? Do I owe you an extra $20?

cool.gif
xsv
Nope, I lost both bets this week. J_Cuz was spot on with the Denver pick.

I'm probalby going to lower my bets this week now that I'm back on my own money, but I'll probably try the same strategy for a fw more weeks.
md717
Hehe, I know . . . poor attempt at razzing you. Just remember, 32-1 !!

cool.gif
md717
Got a 5-way parlay for me this week?

I have to say that I find it amusing that the guy from whom I was considering taking NFL betting advice is currently in last place in our WagerLine contest. hunch.gif
J_Cuz
Needed to take a break after getting off on the wrong foot. Know when to hold 'em and all. But I think the Penn State money line play may help to get my engine revin again.

Eagles are going to blow away the point spread tomorrow.

wink.gif
md717
Yeah, just razzin' you . . . what fun is a competition if you can't razz those behind you? hehe

I think the Eagles are going to blow away that spread also.

What do you think of the NE/ATL game? Last line I saw had NE *getting* 3 points! Now that Atlanta may very well play their backup QB . . . I'm liking that line a LOT.
J_Cuz
yeah I took that w/the over.

Was all over Penn State last night, I'm starting to believe that "mistake spreads," like an undefeated Penn State team GETTING FOUR AT HOME, are very few and far between in the NFL but seem more plentiful in the college ranks.

So I've been dedicating most of my time messing around with college football. It's something I've never really watched but when the season started and Wisconsin was only laying 33 at home against Temple I saw that there were very low risk opportunities there. Felt the same about the Nittany Lions last night. It will take a full season but I'm focusing on that way more than the pros.

md717
I placed my first $$ bets this week.

Took NE straight up at ATL, at a plus-115 payout.

Took PHI minus the points at Dallas (do you realize that the margin of victory in all but 1 of our 9 wins over the last 5 years was by 24 points or more?)

Then parlayed the two.

So . . . I'm likin' the NE score so far, but . . . would feel better if they could get a more comfortable lead given their diminished D of late. I made the pick primarily on the pissed-offedness Brady showed this past week. I can't see them losing this game, even in Fatlanta. And Vick is officially de-activated.
md717
One down, most important one to go.
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