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Birdwatcher
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology408_1.php

So over a 10 year period between 98-07 it looks like only 54% of first round picks succeeded in the league, and I imagine the numbers are even more skewed to failure in the second half of that round. If you read the article the author suggests part of the problem might be that teams rely on the consensus opinions of standard draft boards:

"Is it a crapshoot? It's a little bit of a crapshoot because teams can only do so much and then players have to take some level of responsibility for their performance on and off the field. However, I think teams do make mistakes and while I feel like some of these busts can certainly be avoided, the bottom line is teams don't want to deviate from the consensus on talent evaluation throughout the league."

The player responsibility aspect of that passage seems to be one reason that Chip values 'high football IQ' and 'dedication to their craft' when evaluating players to draft.

I also don't think Chip relies at all on consensus evaluations, setting his own parameters based on physical attributes, versatility, and a track record of performance. One thing about the Chip approach is that he looks for guys that 'fit' his scheme, not guys who could be transitioned to other positions. (He had to try and transition Cole and Graham last year, but clearly wants guys who 'fit' into his schemes this year)

Whether this works or not is yet to be determined, but to blast this draft just because it does not match the draftnik consensus seems a bit premature to me. He made amazing progress with the team last year and he earns the wait and see approach from me this year.
Zero
This fits into this thread, especially the "consensus" part.
nephillymike
The scouting alliances like BLESTO etc are long gone.

Each team has it's own extensive scouting departments now and have no need nor desire to rely on consensus anything.

They make their own decisions.

The draft is a crap shoot. That's why it has always amazed me how teams hold on to picks like they're gold as opposed to the lottery tickets they are.

But as someone who has followed and done compilations of these "consensus" rankings for over 15 years, I can say the failure rates are much greater on reaches of at least one round or more.

I don't speak as anyone who has a personal opinion on how good or bad these prospects have been just as a numbers guy who summarizes what the "experts" think. Again, these experts are not the teams themselves so who knows how they have them rated. Most times, the big reaches flop, at a much higher rate than the 54% you mention above.

Some teams have a knack for picking the diamond in the rough like the Pats.

Other teams like the Raiders reach year after year after year to astronomical failure rates.

People get pissed if others don't agree with their favorite team's picks.

In the end it doesn't matter if they can play. So have faith in Chip's scouting excellence and don't worry what others say if you sleep easier.

I always use a compilation as a guide for me as a prep for the draft of college players who I personally know nothing about.
Birdwatcher
QUOTE (nephillymike @ May 11 2014, 03:06 PM) *
The scouting alliances like BLESTO etc are long gone.

Each team has it's own extensive scouting departments now and have no need nor desire to rely on consensus anything.

They make their own decisions.

The draft is a crap shoot. That's why it has always amazed me how teams hold on to picks like they're gold as opposed to the lottery tickets they are.

But as someone who has followed and done compilations of these "consensus" rankings for over 15 years, I can say the failure rates are much greater on reaches of at least one round or more.

I don't speak as anyone who has a personal opinion on how good or bad these prospects have been just as a numbers guy who summarizes what the "experts" think. Again, these experts are not the teams themselves so who knows how they have them rated. Most times, the big reaches flop, at a much higher rate than the 54% you mention above.

Some teams have a knack for picking the diamond in the rough like the Pats.

Other teams like the Raiders reach year after year after year to astronomical failure rates.

People get pissed if others don't agree with their favorite team's picks.

In the end it doesn't matter if they can play. So have faith in Chip's scouting excellence and don't worry what others say if you sleep easier.

I always use a compilation as a guide for me as a prep for the draft of college players who I personally know nothing about.


The reason I can't diss this draft is that last year (Chip's first) already looks better than the last two before it. I am not sure I consider Smith as much of a 'reach' as some people are saying because the way they scouted him, the fact that he has all the attributes they are looking for at that position, and the fact that the draft was weak in that area. I suspect that Chip sees him as someone who will take a year to develop, butr can spot him this year with Cole as the starter.

Granted the draft is a complete crap shoot, but I like the way Chip measures what he is looking for in players, and if you look at what he took you see no square pegs for round holes. He wants guys with experience (film he can evaluate), dedication to the game, maybe a bit of chip on their shoulder, and team players (the ones who build strong locker rooms).

I think it will take another year to fully cure the D's woes, but with them even losing 10 I think this O will be far more dangerous this year than last. One last thing, I also see an improvement coming in ST play, they brought in some guys that should elevate that aspect of the game.

As far as the 1st place schedule, we only play GB and Carolina as different teams than the rest of the East. So the entire division is challenged by the NFC west, so I don't see the rest of the division with a much easier schedule.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (Birdwatcher @ May 11 2014, 03:18 PM) *
The reason I can't diss this draft is that last year (Chip's first) already looks better than the last two before it.

2012 may turn into the best draft in Eagles history. I think you're referring to 2010-2011.

The reason I'm confident in this draft, especially Smith, is because of Chip's positional requirements from a size and length perspective.

As I said before, I don't expect Smith to be a 15 sack a year guy, but that's a lot to ask of a late 1st round pick.

I do expect him to consistently get between 5-10 sacks and cause problems for the offense in a number of ways. Knocking down passes, hurrying the QB, etc...
Reality Fan
Smith looks like another Connor Barwin which I am happy with......I don't know squat about scouting and watching highlight film does not tell you much but he is a big guy and he is fast....I have to laugh at radio guys. I hate 97.5 but I made the mistake of listening today because I was driving and did not want to hear the Phil's pregame and the idiots they have on Sundays were talking about his Miami game, a game where Louisville killed Miami and Smith had a good game and the moron was saying that all he saw was speed moves so he did not think he will be able to play in the NFL and I am scratching my head. I wanted to smack the clown out of the studio and ask him :if speed is working why go to power moves?"...just to please some piss ant radio guy in Philly?....That station is terrible....it is appropriate that Missanelli is there....another joke...

Ugh...I am having a bad Sunday if you didn't notice...
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ May 11 2014, 07:49 PM) *
Smith looks like another Connor Barwin which I am happy with......I don't know squat about scouting and watching highlight film does not tell you much but he is a big guy and he is fast....I have to laugh at radio guys. I hate 97.5 but I made the mistake of listening today because I was driving and did not want to hear the Phil's pregame and the idiots they have on Sundays were talking about his Miami game, a game where Louisville killed Miami and Smith had a good game and the moron was saying that all he saw was speed moves so he did not think he will be able to play in the NFL and I am scratching my head. I wanted to smack the clown out of the studio and ask him :if speed is working why go to power moves?"...just to please some piss ant radio guy in Philly?....That station is terrible....it is appropriate that Missanelli is there....another joke...

Ugh...I am having a bad Sunday if you didn't notice...

Hope the rest of the week gets better.

My desk top blew up yesterday with a bunch of important stuff on it. Hopeful I can get it back.

Laptopping it for a few days.
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