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nephillymike
Giving it a quick look, I come up with 8-8.

Then I looked at what two power ratings would predict, based on last year's ending ratings, giving the standard three points for home.

Sagarin predicts 9-7
Covers predicts 10-6

The six losses all three agree on are at Ind, at SF, at Dal, at Ari and vs. Sea and at GB.

I have us also losing at NYG and at WAS for a 3-3 division record.

Sagarin has us going 5-1 in division but has us losing at home vs CAR for 9-7.

Covers has only losing the six above to go 10-6.

I can see 9-7 if we can win one of the away games to end the year either at NYG or at WAS.

Tough schedule. Next year is NYG good year in the good one year bad the next cycle.

WAS depends on RG bounce back and Jackson impact on both teams.

Tough schedule. Looks like division winner is our only path at first glance.

JaxEagle
beating last year's win total would be huge. It's gonna be tough.
Dreagon
Well, the good news for you guys is the entire division plays the NFC West, so even if you don't get as good a record as last year it could very well be enough to win the division.

And the NFC East is still in disarray at best, so there's that too. Washington my have gotten better this offseason, but I don't know about the Giants, and Dallas has mainly been trying to stem the bleeding. So right now I think you guys are the early favorites to take the division again.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (Dreagon @ Apr 24 2014, 07:33 PM) *
Well, the good news for you guys is the entire division plays the NFC West, so even if you don't get as good a record as last year it could very well be enough to win the division.

And the NFC East is still in disarray at best, so there's that too. Washington my have gotten better this offseason, but I don't know about the Giants, and Dallas has mainly been trying to stem the bleeding. So right now I think you guys are the early favorites to take the division again.


Bingo.

I see us having about the same record, heavily depending on what we do in the draft. 10-6 in the East should win you the division. I do think the Redskins will bounce back,
in no small part due to our giving them a Pro Bowl WR.
Flying Dutchman
Way too early Mikey but as a "first glance" I'll take my shot.

Put me down for 11-5, to be re-evaluated after the draft and camp. My key positive point is the supposed negative one to most others here. I think the world of Maclin. I like that he has added muscle and is up to 205. I like that he played so well, (most here seem to have forgotten) in 2012 with DJ out and Foles in. Add in Sproles and put
them in the hands of the offensive genius Kelley and I am quite calm about our O's future without DJ. I expect to see even better things out of Ertz and Riley this year as well. And our
O line with a fully rehabbed Peters and a bigger, stronger and more experienced young lion in Johnson gives me a woodie for f'n over our opponents Ds this year. The draft and it's impact on our D are my biggest concerns.
Yeah the Niners and the Seasqwuaks are a concern but NO ONE else at this time.

I am really looking forward to this year, this team is about to grow up a lot more, so hang on for the ride!!!!!!
JaxEagle
Dutch you just got me fired up. I still think 11-5 will be very tough though. I'm not saying we can't do that but I don't think we are going to waltz to 11 wins.
Zero
QUOTE (Flying Dutchman @ Apr 25 2014, 10:09 PM) *
Way too early Mikey but as a "first glance" I'll take my shot.

Put me down for 11-5, to be re-evaluated after the draft and camp. My key positive point is the supposed negative one to most others here. I think the world of Maclin. I like that he has added muscle and is up to 205. I like that he played so well, (most here seem to have forgotten) in 2012 with DJ out and Foles in. Add in Sproles and put
them in the hands of the offensive genius Kelley and I am quite calm about our O's future without DJ. I expect to see even better things out of Ertz and Riley this year as well. And our
O line with a fully rehabbed Peters and a bigger, stronger and more experienced young lion in Johnson gives me a woodie for f'n over our opponents Ds this year. The draft and it's impact on our D are my biggest concerns.
Yeah the Niners and the Seasqwuaks are a concern but NO ONE else at this time.

I am really looking forward to this year, this team is about to grow up a lot more, so hang on for the ride!!!!!

I like it!! And, I'd like to agree but I'm more in "wait and see" mode. I just don't know enough about Kelly and what his program, schemes and overall management will produce. I want to believe it's for real, but one year isn't enough of a sample.
Eyrie
Very tough schedule, so until I see what is done to improve our defence I'll say 9-7.
Flying Dutchman
QUOTE (JaxEagle @ Apr 25 2014, 11:01 PM) *
Dutch you just got me fired up. I still think 11-5 will be very tough though. I'm not saying we can't do that but I don't think we are going to waltz to 11 wins.

Jax, I said 11 wins but I didn't say, waltzing Matilda through this schedule. It's got plenty of claymores laid out in front of
us. Still, I really, really, liked the calm and cool demeanor Foles showed on and off the field. The kid just has IT! Heck we saw that when he used Riley to break Tampa's back two years ago.
I was in the minority when I liked the kid from the beginning, I was in the minority when I saw him as a good fit with a coach as intelligent as Kelley and I may be in the minority again, but I think he is going to be something super special. Cunningham, McNabb and Vick
all had some bigger flashier skill sets. Foles is the polar opposite, more of the quietly confident, shockingly effective rock who leads and performs with a brutal strength of intelligence, and the touch of a surgeon. They are going to have to fight for a few of those 11 but I damn sure like them fighting with Foles leading them. Like I said, hang on for the ride.

Eyrie
QUOTE (Flying Dutchman @ Apr 26 2014, 02:33 PM) *
Jax, I said 11 wins but I didn't say, waltzing Matilda through this schedule. It's got plenty of claymores laid out in front of
us. Still, I really, really, liked the calm and cool demeanor Foles showed on and off the field. The kid just has IT! Heck we saw that when he used Riley to break Tampa's back two years ago.
I was in the minority when I liked the kid from the beginning, I was in the minority when I saw him as a good fit with a coach as intelligent as Kelley and I may be in the minority again, but I think he is going to be something super special. Cunningham, McNabb and Vick
all had some bigger flashier skill sets. Foles is the polar opposite, more of the quietly confident, shockingly effective rock who leads and performs with a brutal strength of intelligence, and the touch of a surgeon. They are going to have to fight for a few of those 11 but I damn sure like them fighting with Foles leading them. Like I said, hang on for the ride.

I didn't have much of an opinion on Foles when we drafted him, but based on his rookie performances I was a firm believer in his fit for Kelly's requirements this time last year. That said, I'm in the "wait and see" category for this season - will he be brought back to earth now that opponents have plenty of tape on him, or can he build on last year as you suggest?

Fingers crossed you're right again.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 24 2014, 02:40 AM) *
Giving it a quick look, I come up with 8-8.

Then I looked at what two power ratings would predict, based on last year's ending ratings, giving the standard three points for home.

Sagarin predicts 9-7
Covers predicts 10-6

The six losses all three agree on are at Ind, at SF, at Dal, at Ari and vs. Sea and at GB.

I have us also losing at NYG and at WAS for a 3-3 division record.

Sagarin has us going 5-1 in division but has us losing at home vs CAR for 9-7.

Covers has only losing the six above to go 10-6.

I can see 9-7 if we can win one of the away games to end the year either at NYG or at WAS.

Tough schedule. Next year is NYG good year in the good one year bad the next cycle.

WAS depends on RG bounce back and Jackson impact on both teams.

Tough schedule. Looks like division winner is our only path at first glance.


8-8? Seriously?

Why does a game at NYG look like a loss? Or Dallas? Both teams with aging QBs coming off surgeries.....I almost get Washington but even they were 3-13 and have a new staff.....

So you see regression.....another vote for your reversal in your Kelly faith....

I can see 1 loss in the division even though they should run the table there....these things happen......I don't see a loss at Indy or Arizona.

I normally say 10-6 when I think the Eagles are good but I can't see them going less than 11-5 unless there are key injuries....

this could be a 12-4 team or better.....

safe bet.....11-5....and I will bet the over if it is less than that.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Apr 27 2014, 05:14 PM) *
8-8? Seriously?

Why does a game at NYG look like a loss? Or Dallas? Both teams with aging QBs coming off surgeries.....I almost get Washington but even they were 3-13 and have a new staff.....

So you see regression.....another vote for your reversal in your Kelly faith....

I can see 1 loss in the division even though they should run the table there....these things happen......I don't see a loss at Indy or Arizona.

I normally say 10-6 when I think the Eagles are good but I can't see them going less than 11-5 unless there are key injuries....

this could be a 12-4 team or better.....

safe bet.....11-5....and I will bet the over if it is less than that.

I hope you are close to being right.
If you are, we should have playoff games again.
To be fair, I didn't do the schedule study for the other division teams. Could be 9-7 gets us the east.

Faith in Kelly reversed? No. He's a really good coach and we'll coach them up.
Faith in our off season comittment to improve this team shaken, most definitely.

On one hand on the plus side, maybe we play the system much better in year two.

But if Foles is just very good instead of all time best type season, that will have a downside.

If Mac is a normal year one after acl season instead of AP outlier, then that will have a downside vs DJ.

The injury gods were very kind last year. If this year is an average one, that has a downside.

That last game at DAL last year was helped by romo being out.

I can be talked into 9-7, but I don't see better.

Maybe the draft gods will shine and we make a trade for a starter and things look better in a month.

Right now, 8-8, with 9-7 upside. Sorry.

I hope I am dead wrong, believe me.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 27 2014, 05:32 PM) *
I hope you are close to being right.
If you are, we should have playoff games again.
To be fair, I didn't do the schedule study for the other division teams. Could be 9-7 gets us the east.

Faith in Kelly reversed? No. He's a really good coach and we'll coach them up.
Faith in our off season comittment to improve this team shaken, most definitely.

On one hand on the plus side, maybe we play the system much better in year two.

But if Foles is just very good instead of all time best type season, that will have a downside.

If Mac is a normal year one after acl season instead of AP outlier, then that will have a downside vs DJ.

The injury gods were very kind last year. If this year is an average one, that has a downside.

That last game at DAL last year was helped by romo being out.

I can be talked into 9-7, but I don't see better.

Maybe the draft gods will shine and we make a trade for a starter and things look better in a month.

Right now, 8-8, with 9-7 upside. Sorry.

I hope I am dead wrong, believe me.


simple things to consider...the Giants got worse besides Eli's ankle....

The Cowboys are worse.....not a little...alot

The Skins got Desean.....but the NFL has figured out the read option and RG3 is now just a guy with a good arm...who found out the hits in the NFL are a lot different than college and does not like it at all...

Now on to the D......it will be year 2 in a system the team clearly embraced...they allowed more than 22 points once in their last 12 regular season games.....add Jenkins as a medium upgrade and they got better...

second year in Kelly's offense can only make them better....look at Kelly at Oregon and his offenses spread the ball.....with or without Jackson this offense will flourish because it is based on making taking advantage of the other team,,,it is not a regimented offense that is the same from game to game.....it changes every week....

How quickly we forget what they did with last year with a team that was 4-12 the year before....


nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Apr 27 2014, 06:55 PM) *
simple things to consider...the Giants got worse besides Eli's ankle....

The Cowboys are worse.....not a little...alot

The Skins got Desean.....but the NFL has figured out the read option and RG3 is now just a guy with a good arm...who found out the hits in the NFL are a lot different than college and does not like it at all...

Now on to the D......it will be year 2 in a system the team clearly embraced...they allowed more than 22 points once in their last 12 regular season games.....add Jenkins as a medium upgrade and they got better...

second year in Kelly's offense can only make them better....look at Kelly at Oregon and his offenses spread the ball.....with or without Jackson this offense will flourish because it is based on making taking advantage of the other team,,,it is not a regimented offense that is the same from game to game.....it changes every week....

How quickly we forget what they did with last year with a team that was 4-12 the year before....

Giants were on a roll late in the year. They had a shot at playoffs until real late in year. Eli will be much better.

RG3 is in year two of recovery of knee surgery which is much better than year one of recovery. DJ should take an extra DB with him to make it easier to run the ball like he did here and provide big play potential.

You might be right about DAL.

The NFL is an ebb and flow league. I believe I have this right based on research I did last off season. It is easier for a 4-12 team to go to the playoffs the following year than it is for that same team if it wins 10 games to get back to the playoffs the year after that. Tougher schedule, regression to the mean etc. That is why we need to be real aggressive this off season to overcome that.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 27 2014, 08:17 PM) *
Giants were on a roll late in the year. They had a shot at playoffs until real late in year. Eli will be much better.

RG3 is in year two of recovery of knee surgery which is much better than year one of recovery. DJ should take an extra DB with him to make it easier to run the ball like he did here and provide big play potential.

You might be right about DAL.

The NFL is an ebb and flow league. I believe I have this right based on research I did last off season. It is easier for a 4-12 team to go to the playoffs the following year than it is for that same team if it wins 10 games to get back to the playoffs the year after that. Tougher schedule, regression to the mean etc. That is why we need to be real aggressive this off season to overcome that.


Mikey...do you follow this game at all? The Giants overspent on suspect talent...Diddinger did a whole segment on it and what a waste of money it was....beyond that Eli's ankle is a mess.....and he is not going to be much better...they have a bad line and he is beaten up as it is....what makes you think they will be good? because they went 3-3 in their last 6 games? That was a roll?

And you did a study that revealed more 4-12 teams made the playoffs the following year than 10 win teams did the following year? Really? Care to share those numbers? That would be amazing. I can think of 6 teams that won 10 games the last 2 seasons....you can name 7 4-12 teams? that turned it around and made the playoffs? I don't see hoe that is mathematically possible. I don't think there were enough 4-12 teams that went to the playoffs other then the Eagles and that was a mixture of what you listed(and mentioned by me before last season when I predicted what they would do by the way....)

The Skins and RG3 will be a .500 team at best......RG3 is not the savior he was projected as being...he found out that he is not superman the hard way...

I don't know why the pessimism surprises me....
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Apr 27 2014, 11:25 PM) *
Mikey...do you follow this game at all? The Giants overspent on suspect talent...Diddinger did a whole segment on it and what a waste of money it was....beyond that Eli's ankle is a mess.....and he is not going to be much better...they have a bad line and he is beaten up as it is....what makes you think they will be good? because they went 3-3 in their last 6 games? That was a roll?

And you did a study that revealed more 4-12 teams made the playoffs the following year than 10 win teams did the following year? Really? Care to share those numbers? That would be amazing. I can think of 6 teams that won 10 games the last 2 seasons....you can name 7 4-12 teams? that turned it around and made the playoffs? I don't see hoe that is mathematically possible. I don't think there were enough 4-12 teams that went to the playoffs other then the Eagles and that was a mixture of what you listed(and mentioned by me before last season when I predicted what they would do by the way....)

The Skins and RG3 will be a .500 team at best......RG3 is not the savior he was projected as being...he found out that he is not superman the hard way...

I don't know why the pessimism surprises me....

Here's some bets you will like
http://m.espn.go.com/nfl/story?storyId=108...amp;src=desktop

I remember that 28% of teams that went 4-12 make the playoffs the next year as opposed to 37% overall ( 12/32). Of those 4-12 teams who become 10-6, those teams have a lesser chance than 28% of getting back to the playoffs in year 2. I'll go back and look to see if I can find it. Pretty sure that's right. I think the study was from the year we went to the current 12 team playoff format forward. Doesn't mean the Eagles will follow the trend, but I found it interesting. On the NYG, the number I heard was they finished 7-3, which is pretty good, given the horrible start.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 28 2014, 05:26 AM) *
Here's some bets you will like
http://m.espn.go.com/nfl/story?storyId=108...amp;src=desktop

I remember that 28% of teams that went 4-12 make the playoffs the next year as opposed to 37% overall ( 12/32). Of those 4-12 teams who become 10-6, those teams have a lesser chance than 28% of getting back to the playoffs in year 2. I'll go back and look to see if I can find it. Pretty sure that's right. I think the study was from the year we went to the current 12 team playoff format forward. Doesn't mean the Eagles will follow the trend, but I found it interesting. On the NYG, the number I heard was they finished 7-3, which is pretty good, given the horrible start.


I predicted 9-7 last year because I felt we were a talented offensive team with an underachieving (albeit still crappy) defense,
and were basically coached down to a 4-12 record by Reid, Morningwood, Castillo, Washburn, etc. Lo and behold, we end up
10-6. If we had DJax I'd easily hop on the 11-12 win bandwagon, but with a tougher schedule I'd go with 10 wins again, which
is always a good achievement in this league, and will likely give us the division again.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Apr 27 2014, 11:25 PM) *
Mikey...do you follow this game at all? The Giants overspent on suspect talent...Diddinger did a whole segment on it and what a waste of money it was....beyond that Eli's ankle is a mess.....and he is not going to be much better...they have a bad line and he is beaten up as it is....what makes you think they will be good? because they went 3-3 in their last 6 games? That was a roll?

And you did a study that revealed more 4-12 teams made the playoffs the following year than 10 win teams did the following year? Really? Care to share those numbers? That would be amazing. I can think of 6 teams that won 10 games the last 2 seasons....you can name 7 4-12 teams? that turned it around and made the playoffs? I don't see hoe that is mathematically possible. I don't think there were enough 4-12 teams that went to the playoffs other then the Eagles and that was a mixture of what you listed(and mentioned by me before last season when I predicted what they would do by the way....)

The Skins and RG3 will be a .500 team at best......RG3 is not the savior he was projected as being...he found out that he is not superman the hard way...

I don't know why the pessimism surprises me....

Since the playoffs were expanded in 1990, there have been 7 four win teams that won 10 or 11 games the following year.

Here's how they fared in those three year spans:

1991-93 SD- 4-11, 11-5, 8-8
2005-07 NYJ - 4-12, 10-6, 4-12
2006-08 CLE - 4-12, 10-6, 4-12
2007-09 ATL - 4-12, 11-5, 9-7
2008-10 CIN - 4-12, 10-6, 4-12
2009-11 KC - 4-12, 10-6, 7-9
2012-14 PHI - 4-12, 10-6, ???

To get to 10 wins will be unique given the previous two years outcomes. Also, note that the two teams that fared the best in year 3, were 11 win teams, which should be a little better talent on the basis of their better record. No 10 win team has even gotten to .500. Their average win total for those 10 win teams in year three? 4.75

Not an easy road in the ebb and flow of parity in the NFL.
Dreagon
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 28 2014, 10:13 PM) *
Since the playoffs were expanded in 1990, there have been 7 four win teams that won 10 or 11 games the following year.

Here's how they fared in those three year spans:

1991-93 SD- 4-11, 11-5, 8-8
2005-07 NYJ - 4-12, 10-6, 4-12
2006-08 CLE - 4-12, 10-6, 4-12
2007-09 ATL - 4-12, 11-5, 9-7
2008-10 CIN - 4-12, 10-6, 4-12
2009-11 KC - 4-12, 10-6, 7-9
2012-14 PHI - 4-12, 10-6, ???

To get to 10 wins will be unique given the previous two years outcomes. Also, note that the two teams that fared the best in year 3, were 11 win teams, which should be a little better talent on the basis of their better record. No 10 win team has even gotten to .500. Their average win total for those 10 win teams in year three? 4.75

Not an easy road in the ebb and flow of parity in the NFL.


True, but I also notice something else with that list. You have habitually bad teams like Cleveland, Kansas City, the Jets, and Cincinnati making the bulk of it. You guys have had a lot more consistent success over the past decade than most of them. So in their case what was most likely a good year where they jumped up and surprised some people, doesn't necessarily match you guys experience at all. I can't see you guys have the same experience as a Cincy or Clev who share a division with usually much more powerful Pitts, or the Jets having to consistently compete with Brady and the Pats....where is the equivelent in the NFC East?
JeeQ
All I know is we better win the division or Chip, Howie, and Lurie seriously fucked up
nephillymike
QUOTE (Dreagon @ Apr 28 2014, 10:40 PM) *
True, but I also notice something else with that list. You have habitually bad teams like Cleveland, Kansas City, the Jets, and Cincinnati making the bulk of it. You guys have had a lot more consistent success over the past decade than most of them. So in their case what was most likely a good year where they jumped up and surprised some people, doesn't necessarily match you guys experience at all. I can't see you guys have the same experience as a Cincy or Clev who share a division with usually much more powerful Pitts, or the Jets having to consistently compete with Brady and the Pats....where is the equivelent in the NFC East?

I see your point on one hand.

But on the other hand, if they played in tougher divisions as you say, than the 10 win year would be more impressive than a 10 win year in a weak division, which would signify that those teams played better competition in their 10 win seasons than we did in ours.

I agree there's no power house in the NFC east. Can we agree that our 10 wins was weaker than most (especially given the favorable injury break of the DAL game) , signifying a less significant achievement as compared to most others on the list but our competition in the division this year is weaker than most of the past also, which means an easier time than most of doing what no other has done.

Dreagon
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 28 2014, 11:36 PM) *
I see your point on one hand.

But on the other hand, if they played in tougher divisions as you say, than the 10 win year would be more impressive than a 10 win year in a weak division, which would signify that those teams played better competition in their 10 win seasons than we did in ours.

I agree there's no power house in the NFC east. Can we agree that our 10 wins was weaker than most (especially given the favorable injury break of the DAL game) , signifying a less significant achievement as compared to most others on the list but our competition in the division this year is weaker than most of the past also, which means an easier time than most of doing what no other has done.


I think at this point your ten wins are a mystery until we see what happens this season. There were a ton of oddball influences going on....new coach, new quarterback, new gameplan, weird years by divisional rivals, etc. What I'm saying is that you guys started out with a stronger core of a team than a lot of those other 4-12 teams did, so I don't find it as likely that you will fall as far back.

And I will confess that a lot of the wildcards that influence your record next year are going to be the other teams in your division.

Wash - this is the team that I think has the best chance of having gotten better. We'll just have to wait and see how much better. RGIII is now another year away from his knee injury, he has more weapons, and a more QB friendly coach.

NYG - I hate predicting the Giants because they can swing from Super Bowl powerhouse to celler-dwelling goat in a year's time, and anywhere in between. From everything I've seen so far this offseason though, they look mediocre.

Dallas - We pretty much don't have a defensive line, period. At this point I'm almost tempted to say we would be better off drafting high on offense just to try and improve that part of our game and concentrate on scoring since we ain't going to be stopping anybody soon. Of course, we still have to see if Romo is even going to be able to come back from his latest back surgury, so I won't be surprised at anything we do. As far as record goes, I'll actually be surprised if we are as good as we were the last three years where at least we were playing for the playoffs in the last game of the season.

When you look at those three teams, I think it's pretty obvious you guys still have the strongest overall corp of personnel.

The only questions for yall are going to be
#1 Will Foles do it again? This year he gets to prove he's the real deal.
#2 as you transfer further into Kelly's system, does the team buy into it.
#3 Is Maclin healthy enough to make up for the loss of Jackson.

I think #1 is the critical one, since yall's roster overall is strong enough to make up for number three, and I haven't seen anything to suggest a problem with #2. So at this point, I have to say yall are division favorites.

EDIT: For the record, I still wonder how much of yalls 4-12 season was the result of the team simply not buying into Reid as a coach anymore and wanting to move on.
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