From the NFP study, if you extrapolate the probabilities of the slots we draft this year, what can we expect to get by qualitative measure?

We draft six players, #'s 22,54,86,118,150 and 214.

Here is how many players of the six are projected to achieve the following levels:

All pro 2 or more years - .05 players (one every twenty drafts of these picks)
All pro once - 0.3 players (one every three drafts)
Pro Bowl 2 or more - 0.2 players (one every five drafts)
Pro Bowl once - 0.5 players (once every two drafts) BTW pro bowls don't count injury substitutions!
Starts 8 or More games as rookie - 1.1 players
Starts more than 4 years - 1.4 players
Starts more than 1 year - 2.4 players
Will ever start a game - 4.3 players
Will play more than 4 years in NFL - 3.2 players


We will get one four year starter and a 50% chance at getting a second.
Of those two, there is a 50% chance that one of them is good enough to be voted to one Pro Bowl.

This illustrates the risks of building through the draft that are rarely spoken.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Boom-o...babilities.html