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nephillymike
Some might remember my preseason post where I showed how since 2000, NFL teams with 4-12 records made the playoffs 28% of the time vs. normal odds for everyone of 12/32 or 37.5%.

Well, how do teams that had a significant increase in wins in one year do in the year after that good year?

I took each NFL team and looked if they had a run since 2000 where year 1 was 6-10 or worse and year 2 was 10-6 or better. How did year 3 turnout?

There were 20 instances that match the criteria. Of those, here is the distribution + or - wins vs. Yr. 2:
-7= 1
-6=4
-5=1
-4=2
-3=6
-2=3
-1=1
0= none
+1= none
+2=2

So, the median is (3) wins and the average is (3.25)
18 of the 20 have a drop in wins the next yr.
That"s 90% chance for a bad season next year,
Another reason why that loss hurts.
Zero
Of your samples, was there any constant regarding coaching? Do you know how many of the teams had a coaching change or some other significant adjustment to the organization?

It would seem a coaching change in year two would likely result in an increase of intensity or effort on the part of the players in most situations. That, in conjunction with likely a weaker schedule would account for an improved record (which, I presume is the first year following the 4-12 season). In year three, the improved record in year two gives the team a harder schedule and if they're in a rebuilding process they'd likely come back down again. Make sense?

To me, that scenario reflects an average or good coach. I'm guessing if the coach is poor the second year doesn't change much from year one and if the coach is outstanding the results in year three have the potential to be better despite the tougher opponents.

We'll see how Kelly matches up if that's a reasonable analysis.
Rick
Well, these numbers make sense. Think about it. The Eagles just won 10 games this season. It's really not that easy winning 10 games each season--which makes Reid's record in Philly all that more impressive.

And, if a team won 11 or 12 games, well, that's even harder (much harder).

So I'd say, yeah, those numbers make total sense. The Eagles will (hopefully) get better next season but it will be difficult to come up with another 10-win (or better) season. Especially when you figure the rest of the NFC East should get better as well.
koolaidluke
Fewer wins is possible, maybe even probable, but does anybody really think the Eagles are going to have a bad season next year?

There is one way the Eagles do poorly next season: Foles gets hurt. I know this isn't going to be popular but I think this team can have success even if McCoy and Jackson were to go down (and I know that the Eagles are much better with both of them). I wouldn't worry about teams catching up with Kelly's schemes because Dallas and the Saints clearly had the Eagles O figured out and still couldn't stop Foles.

Remember the Eagles were able to have sustained success after their first playoff season under Reid because they had good coaching AND stability at QB. Most teams that had that quick success were missing one or the other. Or both.

I understand the concern, but it's just not the same situation.


One thing that I think people are kinda forgetting about though is the defense. Other than the Steelers, Patriots, Seagulls, 9ers and Ravens, how many defenses are good year in and year out? Statistically the Eagles D was bad this year but they were one of the best in the league down the stretch. Can they sustain that?
TGryn
I think a lot of it has to do with relative luck as far as injuries. We lost 3 starters on the OL in 2012 to injury, none in 2013. I don't know what the median is, but the odds of that remaining zero again in 2014 are probably small. Counterpoint would be that the Redskins had lots of OL injuries in 2011 (went 5-11), but few in 2012 (10-6)...yet this year were if anything healthier as a team (few OL injuries again, got Orakpo back on D) yet went 3-13. The rise and fall of RGIII was more the dominant factor in their case than injuries.
Eyrie
A team that finishes 4-12 tends to have a much easier schedule than one which wins its division at 10-6, so it's understandable to expect a couple of wins fewer next year.

Against that we struggled early in the season as our defence adjusted to playing 3-4. Next year the players will have a much better understanding of their responsibilities and we will have added talent which is better suited to the 3-4 rather than trying to adapt 4-3 personnel.

I think our record will be similar, so 9-7 to 11-5 at this stage. Of course, there are a lot of variables (FA, draft) and TGryn's point about injuries is well made.
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