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nephillymike
Hustle Like You Have All Year
Tackle Hard
Show That You're From Philly and Fight

If I see that, then I'm Good
This Season's Tab is Paid In Full

I know we are 2.5 point favorite, and know that the Saints are outside in the cold.

I know we can win the game, but when Mikey Numbers looks closer, I don't think we will.

I tried to look at it in the most favorable light for us so I concentrated on only the last eight games. Here's what I got:

Record - Us 7-1 (4-0 at home), NO 5-3 (1-3 on the road)
Points Differential - Us +11.8 per game, NO +5.0 per game
Yards Differential - Us +51 per game, NO +93 per game
Turnover Differential - Us +13 (18 taken, 5 gave away), NO -6 (4 taken, 10 gave away)
QB Rating Allowed (Season) - Us 84.0, NO 83.6
Last 8 Opponents Record Over .500 - Us 20 games under .500, NO 16 games over .500
Recent Common Opponents:
Dallas - we win by two @ DAL, NO won by 32 in NO. 30 point diff, which is 24 point diff when adjust for Home field
Tampa - we win by 11 @ TB, NO won by 25 in NO. 14 point diff, which is 8 point diff when adjust for Home field.
So in two games, NO was 32 points better after HF adjustment on common opponents.

So let's take a closer look at NO three losses in the last 8 games:
@ CAR by 4 on a last second play when they outplayed CAR by a 143 yard margin. Since they won by 18 two weeks prior, you could sense a split was in order. They split with the #2 team in the NFC. Not a bad loss by any stretch.
@SEA by 27 and lost the yards battle by 241 yards. An old fashioned ass whooping by the best team in football. It happens. We wouldn't have beaten SEA in SEA either.
@STL by 11, even though they had exceeded STL by 130 yards. It's in a dome so no weather impact. Call it their Minnesota game.

So when you break it down, not many surprises there.

I think they are a better team, played a much tougher schedule, and that we're in a tough spot Saturday.

That's OK.

How can we lose?

NO 2nd rated pass offense takes advantage of our 32nd ranked pass defense. We don't get the pressure or turnovers that we need and we take notes in a Drew Brees passing clinic.
Graham vs. our LB/DB makes Whitten look pedestrian and he puts up huge numbers on us.
I think this is the likely outcome. Not a romp per se, but a comfy NO win.

How can we win?

Our #1 Rushing Offense, which averages a league wide 5.1 yds./att. and 160 yds. per game totally humiliates their 29th ranked rushing defense which allows 4.6 yards/carry and 111 yards per game and leaves them sucking wind, not in the 4th quarter, but in all quarters.

Keeping Brees and his smaller hands nice and cold on the sidelines, leaving him helpless to watch.

Then we need a +2 in the turnover battle. I don't think +1 does it Saturday.

Our pass to run ratio this year was 508 to 500. I think Saturday, we need 60-40 run ratio and we need to bury their spirit early and often.

The fans need to be loud and proud and make it real tough for NO to run their offense.

A lot of cold and a lot of wind a lot of noise and a little luck and we got a shot. Better than a puncher's chance.

We are younger, in better shape and at home.

Chip's game day adjustments get us a few points and no costly time mgt. screw ups.

If we win, it will be great.

If not, that's OK, as long as we show them Philly Tough for 60 minutes.

In one year, this organization has made this team into a Philly team, something we can be proud of and they got us a home playoff game which we are favored in.

Ya gotta love that.



Zero
Damn, Mikey. That brought tears to my eyes. Pressure on Davis and his boys. That's what makes or breaks this game in my opinion. I hope the lines are stoked!
Foles Cheesesteaks
Great post, Mike. Saturday can't get here soon enough.

I agree on all fronts. That said, if you feel this sure that NO will win Saturday night, hedge your bets, put a $200 spot on them +3 or +2.5 and go buy yourself something nice to make yourself feel better should we lose. Dare the Iggles to take your dough and pay it happily when/if we win!
Eyrie
Won't surprise me if we lose, but given that we've already achieved more than I expected this season it's hard to complain.

Sod that - I'm greedy and want four more wins before calling this season over!
Zero
I remember big games that the Eagles had no business losing. This isn't one of them. Things change and I'm giving them a good DKD chance of winning Saturday. I've been surprised most of this season, so why not keep that moving.
xsv
I think it will be a close game. And, win or lose, I'm happy with the outcome o the season, and am *very* optimistic about the future.

For me, this season feels a lot like 2001, except that in 2001, we almost saw it coming.

That said, very much like 2001, if this team can get over the fact that we've got a 2nd year qb and a defense that was recently one of the worst in the league, and still isn't much better than average, I think we've got a chance to actually do some damage here.
mcnabbulous
Great stuff, Mikey.

I still think the biggest variable is the Saints offense at home vs. on the road. Just take a look at their performances against Carolina. 31 points in the comfort of the Superdome. 13 points when playing outside.

They are a completely different team.
Flying Dutchman
QUOTE (Zero @ Jan 2 2014, 07:02 AM) *
I remember big games that the Eagles had no business losing. This isn't one of them. Things change and I'm giving them a good DKD chance of winning Saturday. I've been surprised most of this season, so why not keep that moving.

I suspect strongly that the King of all DKD, is up there rooting the birds on to pull this one off. Go Goo, Go Iggles!!
Rick
While I can't make a hard prediction, I feel we've got about as much going for us as we can hope for at this point for Saturday's game. I feel more confident about this game than I did against Dallas. We've been playing lights out at home and NO has struggled on the road. Last week's game was (for all intents and purposes) a playoff game. So I'm thinking the guys got a little bit of experience out of that which should be helpful this weekend.

I worry a little about them coming out and having a bit too much adrenaline to be quite honest. Playing at home in front of a crazy crowd can do that to some people.

Even if the game doesn't end the way we'd like it, I cannot be terribly upset. If they lose to NO, at least they'd have lost to a good team. I just hope they go out and play the way they have the ability to play (think Bears game). If they could bottle that, wow...
D Rock
QUOTE (Flying Dutchman @ Jan 2 2014, 03:59 PM) *
I suspect strongly that the King of all DKD, is up there rooting the birds on to pull this one off. Go Goo, Go Iggles!!

jumpclap.gif jumpclap.gif jumpclap.gif

That's right!!! Dedicate this one to 'goo and KG!
Foles Cheesesteaks
one thing I heard today that worries me, YES the Saints lost 5 games on the road, but the teams they lost to had a 55-27 record, so they lost to elite teams.

That said, we are very good as well, so the trend could easily continue. If things get tough we need to lean on McCoy.
Rick
QUOTE (Foles Cheesesteaks @ Jan 2 2014, 05:39 PM) *
one thing I heard today that worries me, YES the Saints lost 5 games on the road, but the teams they lost to had a 55-27 record, so they lost to elite teams.

That said, we are very good as well, so the trend could easily continue. If things get tough we need to lean on McCoy.

But they didn't look very good losing to any of them. That's the biggest thing I take away.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Foles Cheesesteaks @ Jan 2 2014, 12:42 AM) *
Great post, Mike. Saturday can't get here soon enough.

I agree on all fronts. That said, if you feel this sure that NO will win Saturday night, hedge your bets, put a $200 spot on them +3 or +2.5 and go buy yourself something nice to make yourself feel better should we lose. Dare the Iggles to take your dough and pay it happily when/if we win!

You know, the best thing I could do to ensure an Eagles win is to bet NO. I am Mikey the Moosh when it comes to picking the Birds games. I rarely do it. Last time I did was -7 @ Min! Maybe I take one for the team.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Zero @ Jan 1 2014, 07:38 PM) *
Damn, Mikey. That brought tears to my eyes. Pressure on Davis and his boys. That's what makes or breaks this game in my opinion. I hope the lines are stoked!

Thanks Z. It is an exciting time. I hope our D rises to the occassion.
nephillymike
QUOTE (xsv @ Jan 2 2014, 08:19 AM) *
I think it will be a close game. And, win or lose, I'm happy with the outcome o the season, and am *very* optimistic about the future.

For me, this season feels a lot like 2001, except that in 2001, we almost saw it coming.

That said, very much like 2001, if this team can get over the fact that we've got a 2nd year qb and a defense that was recently one of the worst in the league, and still isn't much better than average, I think we've got a chance to actually do some damage here.

Why do we have to get over the fact that we have a second year QB?
Flying Dutchman
QUOTE (xsv @ Jan 2 2014, 08:19 AM) *
I think it will be a close game. And, win or lose, I'm happy with the outcome o the season, and am *very* optimistic about the future.

For me, this season feels a lot like 2001, except that in 2001, we almost saw it coming.

That said, very much like 2001, if this team can get over the fact that we've got a 2nd year qb and a defense that was recently one of the worst in the league, and still isn't much better than average, I think we've got a chance to actually do some damage here.

It's very clear that the team got over that unimportant fact a long time ago. They have flat out raved about Foles's performance and the way he handles himself. As to the D, they stunk up the place the first 8 games and have done a good job ever since. They have become a turnover driven D and have a knack for coming up big down the stretch. Yeah they had one bad trap game, but this is NOT a trap game. This is their personal, professional goal and they earned the right to be here. Finishing 7-1 tells me they got over the non-problems long ago. IMO they will come to play, and play well.
Reality Fan
I think our D will do ok against NO. Colston is no Bryant and is just a good WR at this point....Graham willbe the focus of the D and Thomas likely will not play. I think It becomes a shootout.....NO will struggle with the cold. All the talk about the weather is one thing but 10 degrees is a lot different than "under 40 degrees". It should be interesting.
Reality Fan
and Mikey....for all your trends you forgot one...

in their last 5 road games the Aints averaged just over 14 points per game.....

I had to say no to tickets for this one....even with the Club seats it is going to be too damn cold......watching this one from home.....
Dreagon
I think you guys have a realistic shot of beating them. They haven't finished the year that strong, and if either team seems to be heading in the right direction into the playoffs, it's you guys. Combine that with what's in this case a very real home field advantage, and I could see you guys winning a playoff game this year.
Rick
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Jan 3 2014, 01:04 AM) *
and Mikey....for all your trends you forgot one...

in their last 5 road games the Aints averaged just over 14 points per game.....

I had to say no to tickets for this one....even with the Club seats it is going to be too damn cold......watching this one from home.....

Too cold!!?? Come on man! The NFC Championship game when we beat the Falcons and Vick to go to the SB was too cold! But it was oh-so-fun. Lost my voice there. smile.gif
xsv
QUOTE (Rick @ Jan 3 2014, 06:42 AM) *
Too cold!!?? Come on man! The NFC Championship game when we beat the Falcons and Vick to go to the SB was too cold! But it was oh-so-fun. Lost my voice there. smile.gif


That's the last playoff game I was at. It was pretty cold.

I remember giving Ashly Ambrose a bunch of shit before the game, and Dawkins knocking Vick out of the game on a TD run.
Rick
QUOTE (xsv @ Jan 3 2014, 10:38 AM) *
That's the last playoff game I was at. It was pretty cold.

I remember giving Ashly Ambrose a bunch of shit before the game, and Dawkins knocking Vick out of the game on a TD run.

Oh yeah, I remember it like it was yesterday. In fact, this is very similar to that game. We had the big snowstorm the day before and it was bitterly cold and windy the next day.

I just remember that being the first game I ever went to that NOBODY sat down around us the WHOLE game. Was an incredible experience.
nephillymike
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Jan 2 2014, 10:42 AM) *
Great stuff, Mikey.

I still think the biggest variable is the Saints offense at home vs. on the road. Just take a look at their performances against Carolina. 31 points in the comfort of the Superdome. 13 points when playing outside.

They are a completely different team.



True.

That is big. Looking at their 3 division opponents:

Team.........Home.............Away
TB...............42..................16
CAR.............31..................13
ATL.............23...................17
Total...........96...................46
Avg.............32.0..............15.3
Difference.....(16.7) Pts/Game

Holding the competition constant, the change of venue is worth almost 17 points and NONE of it was due to weather, only venue.

That's HUGE and more than I would have thought.

Makes our side look better than I previously thought.
mcnabbulous
One way or another...it's all house money. Can't wait for tomorrow!
Reality Fan
QUOTE (Rick @ Jan 3 2014, 06:42 AM) *
Too cold!!?? Come on man! The NFC Championship game when we beat the Falcons and Vick to go to the SB was too cold! But it was oh-so-fun. Lost my voice there. smile.gif



Yeah...I said that when I was at the Lions game in the snow......unforgettable...and I had the same club seats so I could go back into the heat but sitting out in that made the next week brutal...I will be enjoying the game in the warmth of the Sands casino in Bethlehem losing money and enjoying Emeril's before watching the game in bar.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Jan 3 2014, 07:03 PM) *
Yeah...I said that when I was at the Lions game in the snow......unforgettable...and I had the same club seats so I could go back into the heat but sitting out in that made the next week brutal...I will be enjoying the game in the warmth of the Sands casino in Bethlehem losing money and enjoying Emeril's before watching the game in bar.


I play a regular poker game with about 15-20 people, tomorrow night they're playing.....with 8 people. It's impossible to focus on poker with an Eagles playoff game on,
most of us respectfully bowed out.
nephillymike
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Jan 3 2014, 07:12 PM) *
I play a regular poker game with about 15-20 people, tomorrow night they're playing.....with 8 people. It's impossible to focus on poker with an Eagles playoff game on,
most of us respectfully bowed out.

Cmon hop, what u do is u start the poker at noon and have all done by 7.30 even if u force a chop of the pot for the last game. Then u sit and watch the game. Make a day of it. We have done that for div round Saturday the last few years while the games were on since we were out of it. Gave us something to look forward to in bleak eagles seasons.
Rick
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Jan 3 2014, 07:03 PM) *
Yeah...I said that when I was at the Lions game in the snow......unforgettable...and I had the same club seats so I could go back into the heat but sitting out in that made the next week brutal...I will be enjoying the game in the warmth of the Sands casino in Bethlehem losing money and enjoying Emeril's before watching the game in bar.

Well, enjoying it in the tropical temps here in FL. Should be about 60 today but that's better than yesterday when it was about 44. smile.gif

Going to cook a bunch of food at a friend's house then enjoy the game with a bunch of like-minded Eagles' fans. smile.gif
Flying Dutchman
QUOTE (Rick @ Jan 4 2014, 09:30 AM) *
Well, enjoying it in the tropical temps here in FL. Should be about 60 today but that's better than yesterday when it was about 44. smile.gif

Going to cook a bunch of food at a friend's house then enjoy the game with a bunch of like-minded Eagles' fans. smile.gif

At least we should be back up around 80 later this week. Maybe by then I will have my voice back after watching his game.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Jan 3 2014, 07:12 PM) *
I play a regular poker game with about 15-20 people, tomorrow night they're playing.....with 8 people. It's impossible to focus on poker with an Eagles playoff game on,
most of us respectfully bowed out.


I am guessing you missed the part about watching the game in the bar.....pay attention.....the gambling portion of the evening will be pregame....and I am late for it right now...
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE
I am guessing you missed the part about watching the game in the bar


No I didn't, and nothing in my post would suggest I missed that. Are you sure you aren't drunk already?
make_it_rain
I've got a nice selection of craft brews and a spread of food going. So fucking amped up, its a great weekend regardless of what happens (But I see a potential run to the titty bar in my future if they can pull it out)

These games don't come around too often. House money baby.

Cheers

bwc2112
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Jan 1 2014, 06:49 PM) *
Hustle Like You Have All Year
Tackle Hard
Show That You're From Philly and Fight

If I see that, then I'm Good
This Season's Tab is Paid In Full

I know we are 2.5 point favorite, and know that the Saints are outside in the cold.

I know we can win the game, but when Mikey Numbers looks closer, I don't think we will.

I tried to look at it in the most favorable light for us so I concentrated on only the last eight games. Here's what I got:

Record - Us 7-1 (4-0 at home), NO 5-3 (1-3 on the road)
Points Differential - Us +11.8 per game, NO +5.0 per game
Yards Differential - Us +51 per game, NO +93 per game
Turnover Differential - Us +13 (18 taken, 5 gave away), NO -6 (4 taken, 10 gave away)
QB Rating Allowed (Season) - Us 84.0, NO 83.6
Last 8 Opponents Record Over .500 - Us 20 games under .500, NO 16 games over .500
Recent Common Opponents:
Dallas - we win by two @ DAL, NO won by 32 in NO. 30 point diff, which is 24 point diff when adjust for Home field
Tampa - we win by 11 @ TB, NO won by 25 in NO. 14 point diff, which is 8 point diff when adjust for Home field.
So in two games, NO was 32 points better after HF adjustment on common opponents.

So let's take a closer look at NO three losses in the last 8 games:
@ CAR by 4 on a last second play when they outplayed CAR by a 143 yard margin. Since they won by 18 two weeks prior, you could sense a split was in order. They split with the #2 team in the NFC. Not a bad loss by any stretch.
@SEA by 27 and lost the yards battle by 241 yards. An old fashioned ass whooping by the best team in football. It happens. We wouldn't have beaten SEA in SEA either.
@STL by 11, even though they had exceeded STL by 130 yards. It's in a dome so no weather impact. Call it their Minnesota game.

So when you break it down, not many surprises there.

I think they are a better team, played a much tougher schedule, and that we're in a tough spot Saturday.

That's OK.

How can we lose?

NO 2nd rated pass offense takes advantage of our 32nd ranked pass defense. We don't get the pressure or turnovers that we need and we take notes in a Drew Brees passing clinic.
Graham vs. our LB/DB makes Whitten look pedestrian and he puts up huge numbers on us.
I think this is the likely outcome. Not a romp per se, but a comfy NO win.

How can we win?

Our #1 Rushing Offense, which averages a league wide 5.1 yds./att. and 160 yds. per game totally humiliates their 29th ranked rushing defense which allows 4.6 yards/carry and 111 yards per game and leaves them sucking wind, not in the 4th quarter, but in all quarters.

Keeping Brees and his smaller hands nice and cold on the sidelines, leaving him helpless to watch.

Then we need a +2 in the turnover battle. I don't think +1 does it Saturday.

Our pass to run ratio this year was 508 to 500. I think Saturday, we need 60-40 run ratio and we need to bury their spirit early and often.

The fans need to be loud and proud and make it real tough for NO to run their offense.

A lot of cold and a lot of wind a lot of noise and a little luck and we got a shot. Better than a puncher's chance.

We are younger, in better shape and at home.

Chip's game day adjustments get us a few points and no costly time mgt. screw ups.

If we win, it will be great.

If not, that's OK, as long as we show them Philly Tough for 60 minutes.

In one year, this organization has made this team into a Philly team, something we can be proud of and they got us a home playoff game which we are favored in.

Ya gotta love that.

I said 10-6, anything more to me is icing on the cake! And I hate cake, although love icing! biggrin.gif
make_it_rain
QUOTE (bwc2112 @ Jan 4 2014, 08:20 PM) *
I said 10-6, anything more to me is icing on the cake! And I hate cake, although love icing! biggrin.gif


Pretty sure I quoted you and laughed at 10-6 (I had 8-8).

This is me happily eating a tiny bit of crow and giving you props. Cheers.
Zero
Shit, I had 9-7 and fought the urge to reverse the numbers. I really felt 7-9 was more realistic.

WHAM! Fixed my sorry ass. Thanks, Chip.

E - A - G - L - E - S . . .

Fuckin' E A G L E S are back, baybee!
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